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tech / sci.math / COVID Exponential Model

SubjectAuthor
* COVID Exponential Modelcasagiannoni
`* Re: COVID Exponential Modelcasagiannoni
 `* Re: COVID Exponential Modelmaky m.
  `* Re: COVID Exponential Modelcasagiannoni
   `- Re: COVID Exponential Modelcasagiannoni

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COVID Exponential Model

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From: casagian...@optimum.net
Newsgroups: sci.math
Subject: COVID Exponential Model
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 by: casagian...@optimum.net - Tue, 19 Apr 2022 17:30 UTC

Since the spread rate is likely to be related to the number of
infected, one would expect an exponential growth characteristic.
Indeed, considering the recent number of world cases, then one
estimate of the exponential growth constant = .847 , or the number of
cases will increase over a year by a factor of 2 1/3 = 2.333 .

Re: COVID Exponential Model

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From: casagian...@optimum.net
Newsgroups: sci.math
Subject: Re: COVID Exponential Model
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 by: casagian...@optimum.net - Tue, 19 Apr 2022 18:14 UTC

Based on more recent data, things are unfortunately picking up, and
the exponential growth constant = .918 , or the number of cases will
increase over a year by a factor of 2.504 .

Re: COVID Exponential Model

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Subject: Re: COVID Exponential Model
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 by: maky m. - Tue, 19 Apr 2022 21:36 UTC

Viral growth does not conform with exponential models.

On Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 2:14:53 PM UTC-4, casagi...@optimum.net wrote:
> Based on more recent data, things are unfortunately picking up, and
> the exponential growth constant = .918 , or the number of cases will
> increase over a year by a factor of 2.504 .

Re: COVID Exponential Model

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From: casagian...@optimum.net
Newsgroups: sci.math
Subject: Re: COVID Exponential Model
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 by: casagian...@optimum.net - Wed, 20 Apr 2022 18:17 UTC

Let's hope not.

My analysis was a simple linear regression, of [ ln ( cases ) ] as a
function of time, early on 3/21, 3/28, 4/4, 4/11 and 4/28 .

Re: COVID Exponential Model

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From: casagian...@optimum.net
Newsgroups: sci.math
Subject: Re: COVID Exponential Model
Message-ID: <omj06hptefrvfffm9kehrrq6m98frt8532@4ax.com>
References: <h9st5hd7l353qmfu8oubv06n7ccm9g02j5@4ax.com> <90vt5h9s7o9ai97g3t1kqb5emvq03jcfgu@4ax.com> <2b7c8623-7255-456b-a651-f08a0adfe63en@googlegroups.com> <02j06hpgb753guu5r542chqm5clc7ctrfo@4ax.com>
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 by: casagian...@optimum.net - Wed, 20 Apr 2022 18:20 UTC

4/18, not 4/28 .

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