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tech / sci.electronics.design / Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

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From: leg...@nospam.magma.ca (legg)
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2021 15:08:43 -0400
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 by: legg - Mon, 2 Aug 2021 19:08 UTC

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.

Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indictaed that
Covid 19 exposure was indicated in 67% of test subjects. This
compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020.

http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
Comparison charts, as of Jul 31 are available:

http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg

http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_report_group.jpg

http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.

http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_023.jpg
Updated Jul 31
>

As of Aug 01:
US detections are at 105750ppm.(10.6%)
Detection rate is 237ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1853ppm at 1.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 104059ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 1770ppm/day
13.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 103.6% at 2000ppm/day
- with 49.3% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 38122ppm (3.8%) ~ 251 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 19ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 704ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.9% from a 37989ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1340ppm/day
1.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 131.2% at 7300ppm/day
- with 59.4% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 72035ppm. (7.2%)
Detection rate is 88ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2118ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 71407ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 3440ppm/day.
2.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 113.4% at 7900ppm/day
- with 52.3% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 108923ppm (10.9%)
Detection rate is 46ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1451ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 108602ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 104.6% at 6000ppm/day
- with 41.3% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 87022ppm. (8.7%)
Detection rate is 398ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1915ppm at 1.2ppm/day.
FR is 2.3% from a 84309ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 13400ppm/day.
3.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 125.5% at 3100ppm/day
- with 56.5% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 93801ppm. (9.4%)
Detection rate is 166ppm/day and possibly leveling below 180ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2620ppm at 4.6ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 92627ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 67.0% at 7200ppm/day
- with 19.5% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 64091ppm (6.4%)
Detection rate is 37ppm/day and possibly leveling below 40ppm.
Fatalities are 5958ppm at 2.4ppm/day.
FR is 9.4% from a 63522pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 39.9% at 4400ppm/day
- with 15.6% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 84585ppm (8.5%)
Detection rate is 60ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1859ppm at 3.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 83619ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2790ppm/day.
2.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 134.1% at 2500ppm/day
- with 64.5% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 109210ppm (10.9%)
Detection rate is 287ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2340ppm at 6.5ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 107236ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 690ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 71.7% at 7700ppm/day
- with 18.6% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 22143ppm (2.2%)
Detection rate is 118ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1869ppm at 2.9ppm/day.
FR is 9.0% from a 21317ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 220ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 52.2% at 7500ppm/day
- with 20.0% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 41414ppm (4.1%)
Detection rate is 191ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1217ppm at 5.8ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 40092ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 780ppm/day.
24.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 12.7% at 2800ppm/day
- with 4.8% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156289ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 16ppm/day and leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2836ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156109ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 9720ppm/day.
0.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 96.8% at 4800ppm/day
- with 45.3% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 22968ppm (2.3%)
Detection rate is 29ppm/day and possibly leveling below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 308ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 22762ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1210ppm/day.
2.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 34.2% at 3800ppm/day
- with 7.6% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 101184ppm (10.1%)
Detection rate is 241ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 748ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 99434ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 10710ppm/day.
2.3% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 129.0% at 1600ppm/day
- with 62.1% vaccinated.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

> The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
> vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
> 49.2% and 43% respectively.

> This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
> the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
> previously.

> Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
> This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
> fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
> neighbours.

> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>
> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

RL

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o 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

By: legg on Mon, 3 May 2021

130legg
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