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tech / sci.electronics.design / Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

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From: leg...@nospam.magma.ca (legg)
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2021 12:43:29 -0400
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 by: legg - Mon, 30 Aug 2021 16:43 UTC

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020.

> http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
> Comparison charts, as of Jul 31 are available:

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_023.jpg
> Updated Jul 31
>

As of Aug 30:
US detections are at 116536ppm.(11.7%)
Detection rate is 466ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1915ppm at 3.9ppm/day.
FR is 1.7% from a 113926ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 3270ppm/day
14.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 110% at 2600ppm/day
- with 52% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 39332ppm (3.9%) ~ 276 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 80ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 708ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 39095ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1840ppm/day
4.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 140% at 2800ppm/day
- with 66% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 75644ppm. (7.6%)
Detection rate is 108ppm/day and possibly leveling below 120ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2138ppm at 0.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.9% from a 74173ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 3480ppm/day.
3.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 128% at 4300ppm/day
- with 60% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 110570ppm (11.1%)
Detection rate is 96ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1445ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 109923ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 1690ppm/day.
5.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 122% at 6600ppm/day
- with 54.5% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 99152ppm. (9.9%)
Detection rate is 501ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1946ppm at 1.7ppm/day.
FR is 2.0% from a 96096ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 10890ppm/day.
4.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 133% at 2700ppm/day
- with 63% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 96927ppm. (9.7%)
Detection rate is 114ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2707ppm at 3.2ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 96777ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 88.0% at 8300ppm/day
- with 29% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 64368ppm (6.4%)
Detection rate is 22ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 5939ppm at 1.0ppm/day.
FR is 9.2% from a 64241pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 54% at 3900ppm/day
- with 23% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 85249ppm (8.5%)
Detection rate is 30ppm/day and possibly leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1920ppm at 1.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.3% from a 84838ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2740ppm/day.
1.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 149% at 5300ppm/day
- with 70.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 113440ppm (11.3%)
Detection rate is 124ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2442ppm at 3.2ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 112704ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 700ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 91% at 8500ppm/day
- with 30% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 25608ppm (2.6%)
Detection rate is 121ppm/day and possibly leveling below 140ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1982ppm at 5.5ppm/day.
FR is 7.9% from a 25014ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 210ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 65% at 4100ppm/day
- with 26% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 46050ppm (4.6%)
Detection rate is 176ppm/day and possibly leveling below 200ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1359ppm at 5.2ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 45372ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 1130ppm/day.
15.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 20% at 3600ppm/day
- with 9.0% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156544ppm (15.7%)
Detection rate is 18ppm/day and level below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2835ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156427ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 8440ppm/day.
0.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 107% at 2700ppm/day
- with 53% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 23495ppm (2.4%)
Detection rate is 30ppm/day and level below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 314ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 23306ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1310ppm/day.
2.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 45% at 5300ppm/day
- with 10% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 119640ppm (12.0%)
Detection rate is 993ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 795ppm at 2.6ppm/day.
FR is 0.7% from a 114438ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 15820ppm/day.
6.3% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 153.0% at 10500ppm/day
- with 62% fully vaccinated.

Doses applied in Israel appear to be providing 3rd dose booster
reinforcement, without contributing to completed vaccinations.

Had serious issues this week with detection, fatality and full
immunization figures being retroactively revised downwards by
Johns Hopkins statisticians.This had the effect of a 1 week to
ten days shift in many figures reported here, with little effect
on longer-term derived stats.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

> The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
> vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
> 49.2% and 43% respectively.

> This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
> the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
> previously.

> Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
> This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
> fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
> neighbours.

> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>
> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

RL

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o 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

By: legg on Mon, 3 May 2021

130legg
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