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tech / sci.electronics.design / Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

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From: leg...@nospam.magma.ca (legg)
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2021 10:35:13 -0500
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 by: legg - Mon, 6 Dec 2021 15:35 UTC

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate, in eaerly 2020.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020. A daily
> infection rate in excess of 2000ppm is suggested by this change.

> http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>

Comparison charts, as of Nov 30 are available:

http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg

http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_daily_greater_than_5ppm.jpg

http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg

Flu Season? Fatality comparison to past events in the U.S.A.

http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_027b.jpg

Updated Nov 30 to include a second year trend or 'season'.

Looks like everyone's going to get it, eventually, vaccinated
or not - with just a reduced mortality amongst the vaccinated.

As of Dec 06:
US detections are at 147441ppm.(14.7%)
Detection rate is 362ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2368ppm at 5.0ppm/day.
FR is 1.6% from a 144869ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 2530ppm/day
14.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 142% at 3400ppm/day
- with 59% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 47696ppm (4.8%) ~ 362 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 80ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 783ppm at 0.5ppm/day. ~ 382 days behind the US.
FR is 1.7% from a 47134ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 2280ppm/day
3.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 163% at 6000ppm/day
- with 76% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 84633ppm. (8.5%)
Detection rate is 240ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2223ppm at 1.2ppm/day.
FR is 2.7% from a 82956ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 9100ppm/day.
2.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 163% at 7000ppm/day
- with 73% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 119304ppm (11.9%)
Detection rate is 187ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1493ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 117995ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 3560ppm/day.
5.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations are at 158% at 4400ppm/day
- with 71% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 154285ppm. (15.4%)
Detection rate is 672ppm/day and possibly leveling below 700ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2141ppm at 1.8ppm/day.
FR is 1.5% from a 149579ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 14260ppm/day.
4.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 173% at 6400ppm/day
- with 68% fully vaccinated.

Brazil detections at 103476ppm. (10.3%)
Detection rate is 42ppm/day and possibly leveling below 50ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2877ppm at 0.9ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 103185ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is 130ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 147% at 4700ppm/day
- with 64% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 67250ppm. (6.7%)
Detection rate is 40ppm/day and possibly leveling below 50ppm/day.
Fatalities are 6037ppm at 1.2ppm/day.
FR is 9.1% from a 66970ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 126% at 7500ppm/day
- with 56% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 92261ppm (9.2%)
Detection rate is 98ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2004ppm at 1.4ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 90843ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 3450ppm/day.
2.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 216% at 5800ppm/day
- with 84.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 117105ppm (11.7%)
Detection rate is 45ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2558ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 116793ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 690ppm/day.
6.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 153% at 6600ppm/day
- with 66% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 29949ppm (3.0%)
Detection rate is 20ppm/day and leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2266ppm at 1.5ppm/day.
FR is 7.6% from a 29808ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 90ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 102% at 2300ppm/day
- with 50% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 50493ppm (5.0%)
Detection rate is 167ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1498ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 49322ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 590ppm/day.
28.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 44% at 2300ppm/day
- with 24% fully vaccinated.(a rounding error?)

Czech detections at 208934ppm (20.9%)
Detection rate is 1443ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 3139ppm at 9.8ppm/day.
FR is 1.6% from a 198832ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 10660ppm/day.
13.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 129% at 6200ppm/day
- with 60% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 24861ppm (2.5%)
Detection rate is 6ppm/day and level below 20ppm/day.
Fatalities at 340ppm at 0.5ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 24817ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 780ppm/day.
0.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 91% at 5700ppm/day
- with 33% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 144862ppm (14.5%)
Detection rate is 57ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 883ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 0.6% from a 144463ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 9200ppm/day.
0.6% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 175% at 1300ppm/day.
- with 62% fully vaccinated.

Fatality rate hotspots (>5ppm/day) :

Hungary - 18.6ppm/day
Croatia - 16.1ppm/day
Bulgaria - 15.6ppm/day
Georgia - 15.0ppm/day
Trinidad and Tobago - 15.0ppm/day
Slovakia - 14.4ppm/day
Ukraine - 11.1ppm/day
Bosnia - 10.1ppm/day
Poland - 10.0ppm/day
Czechia - 9.8ppm/day
Latvia - 9.3ppm/day
Greece - 8.8ppm/day
Lithuania - 8.2ppm/day
Armenia - 8.1ppm/day
Russia - 8.1ppm/day
Slovenia - 7.9ppm/day
Serbia - 6.8ppm/day
Macedonia - 6.5ppm/day
Romania - 6.2ppm/day
Austria - 5.9ppm/day

> Doses applied in Israel, Chile and other highly vaccinated countries
> appear to be providing 3rd dose booster reinforcement, without
> contributing to completed vaccinations.

> Full vaccination levels are apparently stalled below 60% in the US,
> Czechia and other regions with signifigant reactionary movements.

> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
Detection rates in S.Africa had also turned around until the
recent influences of the omicron variant.
So far there is no corresponding increase in fatalities.

RL

SubjectRepliesAuthor
o 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

By: legg on Mon, 3 May 2021

130legg
server_pubkey.txt

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