Rocksolid Light

Welcome to novaBBS (click a section below)

mail  files  register  newsreader  groups  login

Message-ID:  

Peace was the way. -- Kirk, "The City on the Edge of Forever", stardate unknown


tech / sci.electronics.design / Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

<rtghrglu3u9341bqf3q03f2o6fhpdjpne9@4ax.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/tech/article-flat.php?id=84783&group=sci.electronics.design#84783

  copy link   Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: leg...@nospam.magma.ca (legg)
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2021 11:19:49 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 259
Message-ID: <rtghrglu3u9341bqf3q03f2o6fhpdjpne9@4ax.com>
References: <h7nb6ghieihm4apcr89meab91ochshuee2@4ax.com> <j7j09g9scnbt36up5iidf1tef0shcsocsk@4ax.com> <ppqibgdqa2kcs6dr4fd064st0rlu6gd9nb@4ax.com> <0b86eg1s60nru5m1i8no5qmv674km2ipl1@4ax.com> <j6gggglco2l0o8vocov4gvai653136lu27@4ax.com> <kh2qig9tl6afa4j9cp32iffsaelvln25k4@4ax.com> <gc9cjg5jlsqu57gc18cj2feq87ujbrpged@4ax.com> <4i0plgps4aqj115kj5l7mvf7hfh678a8at@4ax.com> <pr51oghhnscrbfvp6o92l8orpcsdm1enc9@4ax.com> <4qkhqgp8jme81ss002hi3fg35j5s06oe0a@4ax.com>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Injection-Info: reader02.eternal-september.org; posting-host="bbca3928918bb77acdb018b98444d651";
logging-data="13660"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX19Girp/8jZJnAzPnBO5Wbzq"
Cancel-Lock: sha1:fcVqczz/Nky6f27gsg3Udc+QwjM=
X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 4.2/32.1118
 by: legg - Tue, 14 Dec 2021 16:19 UTC

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate, in eaerly 2020.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020. A daily
> infection rate in excess of 2000ppm is suggested by this change.

> http://tiny.cc/cn8muz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>

> Comparison charts, as of Nov 30 are available:

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_daily_greater_than_5ppm.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg

> Flu Season? Fatality comparison to past events in the U.S.A.
> Updated Nov 30 to include a second year trend or 'season'.

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_027b.jpg

> Looks like everyone's going to get it, eventually, vaccinated
> or not - just reduced mortality amongst the vaccinated.

As of Dec 13:
US detections are at 150547ppm.(15.1%)
Detection rate is 359ppm/day and possibly leveling below 370ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2395ppm at 3.8ppm/day.
FR is 1.6% from a 147441ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 4510ppm/day
8.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 146% at 3700ppm/day
- with 60% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 48591ppm (4.9%) ~ 365 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 109ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 787ppm at 0.5ppm/day. ~ 386 days behind the US.
FR is 1.7% from a 47696ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 2670ppm/day
4.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 166% at 4400ppm/day
- with 77% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 86772ppm. (8.7%)
Detection rate is 283ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2234ppm at 1.5ppm/day.
FR is 2.6% from a 84633ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 8710ppm/day.
3.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 169% at 7600ppm/day
- with 73% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 120984ppm (12.1%)
Detection rate is 240ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1495ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 119304ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 3960ppm/day.
6.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations are at 161% at 6800ppm/day
- with 71% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 160324ppm. (16.0%)
Detection rate is 754ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2154ppm at 1.8ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 154285ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 16810ppm/day.
4.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 178% at 7000ppm/day
- with 69% fully vaccinated.

Brazil detections at 103634ppm. (10.4%)
Detection rate is 20ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2881ppm at 0.6ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 103476ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 150% at 3500ppm/day
- with 65% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 67578ppm. (6.8%)
Detection rate is 47ppm/day and possibly leveling below 50ppm/day.
Fatalities are 6048ppm at 1.7ppm/day.
FR is 8.9% from a 67250ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 135% at 6200ppm/day
- with 59% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 92865ppm (9.3%)
Detection rate is 75ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2009ppm at 0.7ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 91751ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2950ppm/day.
2.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 220% at 5000ppm/day
- with 85.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 117495ppm (11.7%)
Detection rate is 48ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2560ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 117105ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 820ppm/day.
5.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 157% at 5100ppm/day
- with 68% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 30079ppm (3.0%)
Detection rate is 18ppm/day and leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2277ppm at 1.6ppm/day.
FR is 7.6% from a 29949ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 80ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 105% at 3100ppm/day
- with 51% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 52976ppm (5.3%)
Detection rate is 340ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1501ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 50493ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 1100ppm/day.
31% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 45% at 1800ppm/day
- with 26% fully vaccinated.(a rounding error?)

Czech detections at 218042ppm (21.8%)
Detection rate is 1217ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 3212ppm at 10.7ppm/day.
FR is 1.5% from a 208934ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 9350ppm/day.
13.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 134% at 7000ppm/day
- with 61% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 24906ppm (2.5%)
Detection rate is 6ppm/day and level below 20ppm/day.
Fatalities at 341ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 24861ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 780ppm/day.
0.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 96% at 5400ppm/day
- with 37% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 145411ppm (14.5%)
Detection rate is 69ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 884ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 0.6% from a 144862ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 10220ppm/day.
0.7% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 176% at 1000ppm/day.
- with 62% fully vaccinated.

Fatality rate hotspots (>5ppm/day) :

Hungary - 18.9ppm/day
Croatia - 13.9ppm/day
Slovakia - 13.5ppm/day
Georgia - 13.3ppm/day
Trinidad and Tobago - 12.8ppm/day
Czechia - 10.7ppm/day
Poland - 10.6ppm/day
Bulgaria - 9.9ppm/day
Ukraine - 9.6ppm/day
Bosnia - 9.6ppm/day
Greece - 8.7ppm/day
Russia - 7.8ppm/day
Latvia - 7.6ppm/day
Slovenia - 7.3ppm/day
Lithuania - 6.8ppm/day
Armenia - 6.2ppm/day
Austria - 5.9ppm/day
Macedonia - 5.6ppm/day
Serbia - 5.3ppm/day
Germany - 5.1ppm/day

> Doses applied in Israel, Chile and other highly vaccinated countries
> appear to be providing 3rd dose booster reinforcement, without
> contributing to completed vaccinations.

> Full vaccination levels are apparently stalled below 60% in the US
> and other regions with signifigant reactionary movements.

> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa had also turned around until the
> recent influences of the omicron variant. So far there is no
> corresponding increase in fatalities.

RL

SubjectRepliesAuthor
o 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

By: legg on Mon, 3 May 2021

130legg
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.81
clearnet tor