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tech / sci.electronics.design / Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

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From: leg...@nospam.magma.ca (legg)
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2021 13:02:39 -0500
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 by: legg - Mon, 20 Dec 2021 18:02 UTC

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate, in eaerly 2020.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020. A daily
> infection rate in excess of 2000ppm is suggested by this change.

> http://tiny.cc/cn8muz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>

> Comparison charts, as of Nov 30 are available:

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_deaths_daily_greater_than_5ppm.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/211130_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg

> Flu Season? Fatality comparison to past events in the U.S.A.
> Updated Nov 30 to include a second year trend or 'season'.

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_027b.jpg

> Looks like everyone's going to get it, eventually, vaccinated
> or not - just reduced mortality amongst the vaccinated.

As of Dec 20:
US detections are at 152732ppm.(15.3%)
Detection rate is 392ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2422ppm at 3.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.6% from a 150547ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 1.0%
US test rate is 3890ppm/day
10.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 149% at 3200ppm/day
- with 61% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 49633ppm (5.0%) ~ 371 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 179ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 791ppm at 0.5ppm/day. ~ 384 days behind the US.
FR is 1.7% from a 48591ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 0.6% .
Canada test rate is 3030ppm/day
5.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 169% at 6300ppm/day
- with 77% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 89273ppm. (8.9%)
Detection rate is 387ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2247ppm at 1.9ppm/day.
FR is 2.6% from a 86772ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 0.8% .
Italy test rate is 9890ppm/day.
3.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 173% at 8500ppm/day
- with 74% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 123117ppm (12.3%)
Detection rate is 305ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1499ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 120984ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 0.3% .
Sweden test rate is 4860ppm/day.
6.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations are at 167% at 6500ppm/day
- with 72% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 166890ppm. (16.7%)
Detection rate is 1138ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2160ppm at 1.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 154285ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 0.2% .
UK test rate is 18810ppm/day.
6.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 183% at 11200ppm/day
- with 69% fully vaccinated.

Brazil detections at 103806ppm. (10.4%)
Detection rate is 25ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2887ppm at 0.9ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 103634ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 2.3% .
Brazil test rate is 30ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 151% at 3200ppm/day
- with 66% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 67906ppm. (6.8%)
Detection rate is 47ppm/day and possibly leveling below 60ppm/day.
Fatalities are 6062ppm at 2.0ppm/day.
FR is 8.9% from a 67578ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 4.4% .
Peru test rate is 390ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 139% at 7100ppm/day
- with 61% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 93262ppm (9.3%)
Detection rate is 67ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2023ppm at 1.3ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 92389ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 1.5% .
Chile test rate is 3000ppm/day.
2.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 223% at 5300ppm/day
- with 85.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 118182ppm (11.8%)
Detection rate is 98ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2563ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 117495ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 0.9% .
Argentina test rate is 880ppm/day.
11.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 160% at 5900ppm/day
- with 69% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 30189ppm (3.0%)
Detection rate is 17ppm/day and leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2286ppm at 1.3ppm/day.
FR is 7.6% from a 30079ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 5.9% .
Mexico test rate is 80ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 107% at 4700ppm/day
- with 51% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 55096ppm (5.5%)
Detection rate is 334ppm/day and possibly leveling below 350ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1505ppm at 0.5ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 52976ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 0.2% .
SA test rate is 1220ppm/day.
27% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 46% at 1400ppm/day
- with 26% fully vaccinated.(a rounding error?)

Czech detections at 224088ppm (22.4%)
Detection rate is 919ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 3284ppm at 10.5ppm/day.
FR is 1.5% from a 218042ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 0.7% .
Czech test rate is 8590ppm/day.
10.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 138% at 6800ppm/day
- with 61% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 24937ppm (2.5%)
Detection rate is 5ppm/day and level below 20ppm/day.
Fatalities at 343ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 24906ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 3.3% .
India test rate 850ppm/day.
0.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 97% at 5400ppm/day
- with 39% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 145893ppm (14.6%)
Detection rate is 81ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 886ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 0.6% from a 144862ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
FR ten day short term is 0.4% .
Israel test rate is 10220ppm/day.
0.8% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 177% at 1700ppm/day.
- with 63% fully vaccinated.

Fatality rate hotspots (>5ppm/day) :

Trinidad and Tobago - 17.6ppm/day
Slovakia - 17.3ppm/day
Hungary - 16.3ppm/day
Croatia - 12.7ppm/day
Georgia - 12.2ppm/day
Poland - 11.4ppm/day
Bulgaria - 11.3ppm/day
Czechia - 10.3ppm/day
Bosnia - 8.9ppm/day
Greece - 8.9ppm/day
Santa Lucia - 7.8ppm/day
Lithuania - 7.7ppm/day
Ukraine - 7.5ppm/day
Russia - 7.4ppm/day
Slovenia - 6.1ppm/day
Macedonia - 5.7ppm/day
Latvia - 5.3ppm/day

> Doses applied in Israel, Chile and other highly vaccinated countries
> appear to be providing 3rd dose booster reinforcement, without
> contributing to completed vaccinations.

Full vaccination levels are apparently stalled around 60% in the US
and other regions with signifigant reactionary movements.

The increased transmissibility of omicron variants have contributed
to the rise in detections, world-wide, after Nov 2021. So far, no
increase in mortality is associated with this variant.

> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa had also turned around until the
> recent influences of the omicron variant. So far there is no
> corresponding increase in fatalities.

RL

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o 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

By: legg on Mon, 3 May 2021

130legg
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