Rocksolid Light

Welcome to novaBBS (click a section below)

mail  files  register  newsreader  groups  login

Message-ID:  

"It's ten o'clock... Do you know where your AI programs are?" -- Peter Oakley


tech / sci.electronics.design / Re: Second year mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Re: Second year mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

<hrvv5h9tat77bo8c4gu85f86vvvibupbhp@4ax.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/tech/article-flat.php?id=95127&group=sci.electronics.design#95127

  copy link   Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: leg...@nospam.magma.ca (legg)
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: Second year mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2022 08:44:20 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 279
Message-ID: <hrvv5h9tat77bo8c4gu85f86vvvibupbhp@4ax.com>
References: <j6gggglco2l0o8vocov4gvai653136lu27@4ax.com> <kh2qig9tl6afa4j9cp32iffsaelvln25k4@4ax.com> <gc9cjg5jlsqu57gc18cj2feq87ujbrpged@4ax.com> <4i0plgps4aqj115kj5l7mvf7hfh678a8at@4ax.com> <pr51oghhnscrbfvp6o92l8orpcsdm1enc9@4ax.com> <4qkhqgp8jme81ss002hi3fg35j5s06oe0a@4ax.com> <kht6tgp3ool8jr80j05m55oeq447e7im7r@4ax.com> <6gbgvgh4fgt4mcgiapspru2q4hm9uj1orj@4ax.com> <vd822hdj2h5eqmjsuljathh7oe8q9nov69@4ax.com> <lvtp4hdo0s5vohlesf1kkeg6vk9b95pout@4ax.com>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Injection-Info: reader02.eternal-september.org; posting-host="189ea43567ff54894fc65537938fcd56";
logging-data="5414"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX1+d3d+YtkcxGMTZ3hRoy5Uo"
Cancel-Lock: sha1:4wiUT/bfPxMVMGDvZ8IuVNFx7Gc=
X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 4.2/32.1118
 by: legg - Wed, 20 Apr 2022 12:44 UTC

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate, in early 2020.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020. A daily
> infection rate in excess of 2000ppm is suggested by this change.

> http://tiny.cc/cn8muz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>

> Comparison charts, as of Mar01 are available:

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/220404_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/220404_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/220404_deaths_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/220404_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/220404_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/220404_deaths_daily_worl_map.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/220404_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/220404_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/220404_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg

> Flu Season? Fatality comparison to past events in the U.S.A.
> Updated Mar01 to include a second year trend or 'season'.

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_029c.jpg

> Looks like everyone's going to get it, eventually, vaccinated
> or not - just reduced mortality amongst the vaccinated.

> Past sero-immunity studies suggest that a 30% detection record
> could indicate widespread (>80%) penetration in a population.

As of Apr18:
US detections are at 242363ppm.(24.2%)
Detection rate is 101ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2970ppm at 1.3ppm/day.
FR is 1.2% from a 241552ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 2.5%.
US test rate is 2120ppm/day.
4.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 171% at 1000ppm/day
- with 66% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 95825ppm (9.6%) ~ 363 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 414ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1009ppm at 1.9ppm/day. ~ 467 days behind the US.
FR is 1.1% from a 93136ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.5%.
Canada test rate is 1350ppm/day
30.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 217% at 1600ppm/day
- with 82% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 260582ppm. (26.1%)
Detection rate is 970ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2680ppm at 2.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.1% from a 253316ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.3%.
Italy test rate is 6560ppm/day.
14.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 226% at 300ppm/day.
- with 79% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 245665ppm (24.6%)
Detection rate is 56ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1831ppm at 2.0ppm/day.
FR is 0.7% from a 245270ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 2.0%.
Sweden test rate is 400ppm/day.
14.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 212% at 3400ppm/day
- with 75% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 319906ppm. (32.0%)
Detection rate is 507ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2515ppm at 4.2ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 316473ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.2%.
UK test rate is 6240ppm/day.
8.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 208% at 700ppm/day
- with 73% fully vaccinated.

Brazil detections at 141411ppm. (14.1%)
Detection rate is 66ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 3095ppm at 0.7ppm/day
FR is 2.2% from a 140911ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.6% .
Brazil test rate is not reported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 198% at 1800ppm/day
- with 76% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 106608ppm. (10.7%)
Detection rate is 20ppm/day and leveling below 25ppm/day.
Fatalities are 6375ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 6.0% from a 106463ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 3.2% .
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 207% at 3800ppm/day
- with 79% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 183815ppm (18.4%)
Detection rate is 128ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2981ppm at 1.4ppm/day.
FR is 1.6% from a 181480ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.4% .
Chile test rate is 2470ppm/day.
5.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 268% at 2470ppm/day.
- with 91% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 198679ppm (19.9%)
Detection rate is 26ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2814ppm at 0.5ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 198415ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.9% .
Argentina test rate is 230ppm/day.
11.3% of tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 214% at 700ppm/day
- with 81% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 43970ppm (4.4%)
Detection rate is 5ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2487ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 5.7% from a 43934ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 2.2% .
Mexico test rate is 20ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 149% at 1700ppm/day.
- with 61% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 62325ppm (6.2%)
Detection rate is 23ppm/day and leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1669ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 2.7% from a 62158ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 1.5%.
SA test rate is 310ppm/day.
3.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 57% at 500ppm/day
- with 30% fully vaccinated.(a rounding error?)

Czech detections at 362092ppm (36.2%)
Detection rate is 197ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 3729ppm at 1.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.0% from a 360138ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.4% .
Czech test rate is 1460ppm/day.
13.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 164% at 100ppm/day
- with 64% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 30892ppm (3.1%)
Detection rate is 1ppm/day and leveling below 2ppm/day.
Fatalities at 375ppm at 0.0ppm/day.
FR is 1.2% from a 30886ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 1.5% .
India test rate 390ppm/day.
0.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 134% at 800ppm/day
- with 61% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 434472ppm (43.4%)
Detection rate is 459ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities at 1146ppm at 0.9ppm/day.
FR is 0.3% from a 430293ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.1% .
Israel test rate is 5270ppm/day.
8.7% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 195% at 100ppm/day.
- with 66% fully vaccinated.

Fatality rate hotspots (>5ppm/day) :

Greece - 6.2ppm/day

> Pfizer is recommending a 4th vaccine dose to maintain reduced
> mortality rates, based on their Israeli trials. There is no news
> w/r to omicron-specific vaccine tests. Israeli vaccination rates
> have stalled at 66% for half a year, suggesting that this may be
> part of their testing protocol.

> Although omicron is considered less fatal than earlier variants,
> the US short-term fatality rate is now double the long-term
> average of record.

> As detection levels rise above 15% of the total population ( >30%
> in some cases), and assymptomatic infection levels at >3:1, it
> may become safe to assume that very large levels of a population
> have 'had' covid19 and that present infections are caused by
> variants that are not suppressed by current vaccination efforts.
> Without an accompanying mortality, these new variants are
> unconvincing candidates for further vaccination development.

> Doses applied in Israel, Chile and other highly vaccinated countries
> appear to be providing 3rd dose booster reinforcement, without
> contributing to completed vaccinations.

> Full vaccination levels are apparently stalled around 60% in the US
> and other regions with signifigant reactionary movements.

> The increased transmissibility of omicron variants have contributed
> to the rise in detections, world-wide, after Nov 2021. So far, no
> increase in mortality is associated with this variant.

> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa had also turned around until the
> recent influences of the omicron variant. So far there is no
> corresponding increase in fatalities.

RL

SubjectRepliesAuthor
o 12 month mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

By: legg on Mon, 3 May 2021

130legg
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.81
clearnet tor