In article <smdhm8$se3$1@dont-email.me>,
Tweed <usenet.tweed@gmail.com> wrote:

> My point was that you claimed that the BBC didn‘t report falling
> cases. They do.

They got around to it in the end then, oh good. Was that just on the
web or on their news too?

> The 14x figure was given by the head of the NHS Amanda Prichard,
> and she has been criticised for her misuse of the figures.

> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/amanda-pritchard-nhs-chief-lambasted-after-covid-admissions-claim-0w78wbj7t?shareToken=fb00cb1e6df53288f08c1e3c60d473b3

> Instead of relying on second or third hand graphs, why not look at
> the official government data

> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Because that was what was presented to me along with the comment that
MSM were (at the time) avoiding saying it.

> There you will see that cases are declining and deaths increasing.
> As it takes around a month to be killed by the virus, you would
> expect deaths to more or less match the case rate a month ago,
> which seems to be the case.

> If you look at the death rate over a longer period

> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

> you will see it is very much lower than the peak in roughly
> February this year. Given we were very much more restricted then
> than now, I‘d conclude that the vaccines are very much working.

I'm very glad to hear it.

Bob.

In article <5988a2cb7acharles@candehope.me.uk>,
charles <charles@candehope.me.uk> wrote:
> In article <59889bef99charles@candehope.me.uk>,
> charles <charles@candehope.me.uk> wrote:

> > and I am one of those statistics. Try and keep the infections
> > down - that has nothing to do with politics.

Everything is politics even what gender you are.

> I've just realised why politics has come into it. Rightb wingers
> only care for themselves,

Absolutely. :-)

As a younger man I was left inclined believe it or not. I can
remember trotting out phrases like - "The Tories understand the price
of everything and the value of nothing", I voted for Blair.

Around 1990 I was head of team who won an award from our employer. I
remember being gutted because the award was to be presented to me by
Tory MP John Redwood. I had to go and shake his hand, the last thing
I wanted to do. My displeasure was written right across my face.
For some years now I've read his blog regularly and now find him very
sensible. I somehow feel I should apologise to him but I'm sure he
wouldn't remember it anyway.

However, as I got older my views changed considerably. I started to
see Labour as unrealistic and kept asking questions like "and who's
going to pay for that"? etc.

I wasted my time worrying, I voted conservative but ended up with a
high tax, high spend, net-stupid supporting incompetent government
that calls itself Conservative but it isn't.

Bob.

On 09/11/2021 11:26, Bob Latham wrote:
>
> That's it then, just having a go, shoot the messanger because you
> don't like the message.
>
> Got it.

No, that's you, using words like 'lefties' to give yourself an excuse to
ignore contrary evidence that you don't like.

--

Fake news kills!

I may be contacted via the contact address given on my website:
www.macfh.co.uk

On 09/11/2021 12:26, Bob Latham wrote:
>
> In article <5988a882bccharles@candehope.me.uk>,
> charles <charles@candehope.me.uk> wrote:
>>
>> In article <5988a4ec65bob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
>> Bob Latham <bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>> That's it then, just having a go, shoot the messanger because you
>>> don't like the message.
>>
>> Just like you blaming "left wingers"
>
> True -ish.
>
> And yet the hardest calls for lockdown always come from the left and
> scratch the surface of 9/10 climate obsessives and you'll find a
> marxist underneath.

And that *EXACTLY* proves charles', my own, Jim's point!

--

Fake news kills!

I may be contacted via the contact address given on my website:
www.macfh.co.uk

On 09/11/2021 08:08, Bob Latham wrote:
>
> Last night on GBNews, whole section (not Harwood) on why isn't main
> stream TV reporting that cases have been dropping since 20th October.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Because it's no big deal, they've still only dropped to at very best to
the *AVERAGE* level that they've been since midsummer, and may still be
above that (judging visually without calculating the average). If they
drop to below the lowest level since midsummer and continue dropping
after that, then we can begin to heave a sigh of relief, but until that
happens, there's nothing much to celebrate, we still have one of the
worst daily case rates in the world.

> It does look very much like the left controlled media do not wish to
> report this. Add that to the pure hate I've seen thrown at me and
> Harwood from the left on here and it does make you wonder, they don't
> like it do they? They want more restrictions and even lockdown if
> they can get it.
>
> The further left the government the more draconian the measures taken
> are look at Wales and Scotland. The left are control freaks.

Absurd and paranoid conspiracy theory left in for everyone else to laugh at.

> Can I remind you all, this week this..
>
> Sky News: Coronavirus epidemic escaliting by the day.

I'll leave commenting on that to others that may watch the channel, I don't.

> BBC: With cases rising in school age children.

ONS figures as quoted up thread:

"Infections in England highest in secondary school-age children
29 October 2021

Overall, coronavirus (COVID-19) infections continued to increase in
England in the most recent week, with the percentage testing positive
still highest in those in school years 7 to 11 (9.14%)."

--

Fake news kills!

I may be contacted via the contact address given on my website:
www.macfh.co.uk

On 09/11/2021 12:48, Bob Latham wrote:
>
> Everything is politics even what gender you are.

To you, but not to most of the rest of us.

> Around 1990 I was head of team who won an award from our employer. I
> remember being gutted because the award was to be presented to me by
> Tory MP John Redwood. I had to go and shake his hand, the last thing
> I wanted to do. My displeasure was written right across my face.
> For some years now I've read his blog regularly and now find him very
> sensible. I somehow feel I should apologise to him but I'm sure he
> wouldn't remember it anyway.

Ah! The oh-so-patriotic John Redwood:

John Redwood criticised over advice to pull money out of UK
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/13/labour-accuses-john-redwood-of-talking-britain-down?CMP=share_btn_tw

"Labour has criticised the arch-Eurosceptic MP John Redwood for “talking
down Britain” after he recently wrote a column of financial advice in
which he recommended investors “look further afield” because of the
state of the UK economy.

In the piece for the Financial Times, the Conservative MP – who has a
£180,000 second job as chief global strategist for Charles Stanley –
said the European Central Bank was promoting faster growth when the UK
was seeing a squeeze on credit."

[...]

The piece was published on 3 November but came to greater prominence
after a scathing comment piece was published over the weekend by a
Forbes commentator, Frances Coppola, who wrote that the MP had
“advocated a course of action by the UK government that he knows would
seriously damage the UK economy”.

Coppola wrote: “To protect his job as an investment manager, he warned
his wealthy clients to get their money out before the disaster hits. To
me, this smacks of disaster capitalism. Engineer a crash while ensuring
your own interests are protected, then clean up when it hits. This is
despicable behaviour by a lawmaker.”

[...]

Tom Brake, the Liberal Democrats’ Brexit spokesman, also criticised the
column, calling the advice “sheer hypocrisy” from an MP who had promoted
leaving the EU.

“He is advising investors to move their money out of the UK, all the
while pushing in parliament for a destructive hard Brexit that would see
even more investment desert the country,” Brake said."

--

Fake news kills!

I may be contacted via the contact address given on my website:
www.macfh.co.uk

In article <5988ac6823bob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
Bob Latham <bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
> In article <5988a2cb7acharles@candehope.me.uk>,
> charles <charles@candehope.me.uk> wrote:
> > In article <59889bef99charles@candehope.me.uk>,
> > charles <charles@candehope.me.uk> wrote:

> > > and I am one of those statistics. Try and keep the infections
> > > down - that has nothing to do with politics.

> Everything is politics even what gender you are.

> > I've just realised why politics has come into it. Rightb wingers
> > only care for themselves,

> Absolutely. :-)

> As a younger man I was left inclined believe it or not. I can
> remember trotting out phrases like - "The Tories understand the price
> of everything and the value of nothing", I voted for Blair.

> Around 1990 I was head of team who won an award from our employer. I
> remember being gutted because the award was to be presented to me by
> Tory MP John Redwood. I had to go and shake his hand, the last thing
> I wanted to do. My displeasure was written right across my face.
> For some years now I've read his blog regularly and now find him very
> sensible. I somehow feel I should apologise to him but I'm sure he
> wouldn't remember it anyway.

> However, as I got older my views changed considerably. I started to
> see Labour as unrealistic and kept asking questions like "and who's
> going to pay for that"? etc.

> I wasted my time worrying, I voted conservative but ended up with a
> high tax, high spend, net-stupid supporting incompetent government
> that calls itself Conservative but it isn't.

Almost the exact opposite of my politics. I started off as a "Caring
Conservative" - Harold MacMillan style, but the party started getting more
and more "Me" "me" rather than "us". MT turned me right off. So, I
probably don't vote except in local elections where I'm voting for someone
I know or know a lot about.

--
from KT24 in Surrey, England
"I'd rather die of exhaustion than die of boredom" Thomas Carlyle

On 09/11/2021 07:58, Bob Latham wrote:
> In article<smc558$sbt$1@dont-email.me>,
> Indy Jess John<bathwatchdog@OMITTHISgooglemail.com> wrote:
>> On 08/11/2021 16:20, Bob Latham wrote:
>>> OK, accurate or not, do you agree that Harwood's description of the
>>> graphs he showed are reasonable and that at least 2 out of the 3 from
>>> MSM are absurd?
>
>> Anyone can draw a graph and add a narrative that matches the graph.
>> Having done that, it isn't difficult to use that narrative to
>> claim that other ideas are wrong.
>
>> Getting real life to match the graph is an entirely different
>> problem.
>
> We're going round in circles Jim, I agree completely with that and
> did all along, which is why I asked are the graphs correct because if
> they are then Harwood's assessment is correct.
>
> Bob.
>
Not so. Harwoods assessment and real life don't actually match.
What Harwood does is explain the graph, not show its accuracy.

Jim

On 09/11/2021 08:08, Bob Latham wrote:
> In article<59883c576ebob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>> In article<5988382471bob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
>> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>>> In article<598635c94fbob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
>>> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>
>>>> https://youtu.be/F_p4nvqZLQg
>
>>> Here's another one for all the lefties to chew on.
>
>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESE0CPR_qdE
>
>>> Lefties seem to love anything they think will shut down Britain.
>
>> New tweet from Allison Pearson of the Telegraph.
>
>> "Why can't @BBCNews say that Covid cases are plummeting?
>> It's looking embarrassing now".
>
> Last night on GBNews, whole section (not Harwood) on why isn't main
> stream TV reporting that cases have been dropping since 20th October.

Last night on BBC Points West they presented actual figures, of new
cases and where they were, how many Covid patients are in Intensive Care
and the proportion of them who are not vaccinated, with not a graph in
sight, just facts compared with the same figures a week previous.

I have no idea what GBNews was watching, but my TV (on a mainstream
broadcast) gave me two pieces of information: that in my area the number
of new cases is reducing; and that even so, my area that reduced number
is considerably above the national average (where the figures are
gradually reducing, not plummeting). My area was a prolific user of the
lab that gave thousands of false negatives so it is no surprise it is
currently an infection rate hot spot.

Jim

In article <5988b27e16charles@candehope.me.uk>,
charles <charles@candehope.me.uk> wrote:
> In article <5988ac6823bob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
> Bob Latham <bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:

> > As a younger man I was left inclined believe it or not. I can
> > remember trotting out phrases like - "The Tories understand the
> > price of everything and the value of nothing", I voted for Blair.

> > Around 1990 I was head of team who won an award from our
> > employer. I remember being gutted because the award was to be
> > presented to me by Tory MP John Redwood. I had to go and shake
> > his hand, the last thing I wanted to do. My displeasure was
> > written right across my face. For some years now I've read his
> > blog regularly and now find him very sensible. I somehow feel I
> > should apologise to him but I'm sure he wouldn't remember it
> > anyway.

> > However, as I got older my views changed considerably. I started
> > to see Labour as unrealistic and kept asking questions like "and
> > who's going to pay for that"? etc.

> > I wasted my time worrying, I voted conservative but ended up with
> > a high tax, high spend, net-stupid supporting incompetent
> > government that calls itself Conservative but it isn't.

> Almost the exact opposite of my politics. I started off as a
> "Caring Conservative" - Harold MacMillan style, but the party
> started getting more and more "Me" "me" rather than "us". MT turned
> me right off. So, I probably don't vote except in local elections
> where I'm voting for someone I know or know a lot about.

Not unique I'm sure but your path isn't the standard model. I've
found most people become less idealistic and more realistic even
cynical as they age.

I was no fan of Mrs. T at the time. Greed, load's a-money vulgarity
didn't sit well with me. Neither did slaughtering trade unions which
admittedly they brought on themselves but they needed to be limited
not destroyed.

My employer at the time offered me free shares which I saw as
political bribery and I had principles. :-) That and a few other
things taught me that standing on those principles cost me and my
wife but did nothing to change the world. I never had those shares -
bloody fool me. I would now.

Bob.

In article <smdvbk$3pb$1@dont-email.me>,
Indy Jess John <bathwatchdog@OMITTHISgooglemail.com> wrote:
> On 09/11/2021 07:58, Bob Latham wrote:
> > In article<smc558$sbt$1@dont-email.me>,
> > Indy Jess John<bathwatchdog@OMITTHISgooglemail.com> wrote:
> >> On 08/11/2021 16:20, Bob Latham wrote:
> >>> OK, accurate or not, do you agree that Harwood's description of the
> >>> graphs he showed are reasonable and that at least 2 out of the 3 from
> >>> MSM are absurd?
> >
> >> Anyone can draw a graph and add a narrative that matches the graph.
> >> Having done that, it isn't difficult to use that narrative to
> >> claim that other ideas are wrong.
> >
> >> Getting real life to match the graph is an entirely different
> >> problem.
> >
> > We're going round in circles Jim, I agree completely with that and
> > did all along, which is why I asked are the graphs correct because if
> > they are then Harwood's assessment is correct.
> >
> > Bob.
> >
> Not so. Harwoods assessment and real life don't actually match.

How's that then?

> What Harwood does is explain the graph, not show its accuracy.

Oh I see. Would it help if I said his assessment of the graphs was
correct?

Actually, seems to me his assessment of the situation in that video
is spot on. He showed a graph with cases falling and said just that.
It turns out that the cases have been falling just as he said.

What he said was correct.

Bob.

Indy Jess John <bathwatchdog@OMITTHISgooglemail.com> wrote:
> On 09/11/2021 08:08, Bob Latham wrote:
>> In article<59883c576ebob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
>> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>>> In article<5988382471bob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
>>> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>>>> In article<598635c94fbob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
>>>> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>>
>>>>> https://youtu.be/F_p4nvqZLQg
>>
>>>> Here's another one for all the lefties to chew on.
>>
>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESE0CPR_qdE
>>
>>>> Lefties seem to love anything they think will shut down Britain.
>>
>>> New tweet from Allison Pearson of the Telegraph.
>>
>>> "Why can't @BBCNews say that Covid cases are plummeting?
>>> It's looking embarrassing now".
>>
>> Last night on GBNews, whole section (not Harwood) on why isn't main
>> stream TV reporting that cases have been dropping since 20th October.
>
> Last night on BBC Points West they presented actual figures, of new
> cases and where they were, how many Covid patients are in Intensive Care
> and the proportion of them who are not vaccinated, with not a graph in
> sight, just facts compared with the same figures a week previous.
>
> I have no idea what GBNews was watching, but my TV (on a mainstream
> broadcast) gave me two pieces of information: that in my area the number
> of new cases is reducing; and that even so, my area that reduced number
> is considerably above the national average (where the figures are
> gradually reducing, not plummeting). My area was a prolific user of the
> lab that gave thousands of false negatives so it is no surprise it is
> currently an infection rate hot spot.
>
> Jim
>
>

There is possibly another explanation. The areas that did badly earlier on
seem to be doing better now, eg Newcastle, Nottingham, London and in
particular Leicester (whose worst area is now one of the least infected). I
believe the West Country did well earlier on. Now we’ve let the schools
back with almost no mitigation the virus is seeking out those who
previously escaped. Of course, having a dud testing lab doesn’t help.

What has not been made clear in public, at least not that I can find out
about, is what the strategy for schools was/is. It appeared to be let it
rip because covid allegedly doesn’t harm children and the adults have been
vaccinated and there is allegedly no net benefit to children in having the
vaccine (according to JCVI) The flaw in that is not all adults are
vaccinated, and for those that are an infected person (school child) can
infect 1 in 4 of other vaccinated household individuals. Some of those
individuals are the older generations with waning immunity. Hence the
sudden emphasis on booster jabs and a belated decision to vaccinate teenage
school children.

Bob Latham <bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
> In article <5988b27e16charles@candehope.me.uk>,
> charles <charles@candehope.me.uk> wrote:
>> In article <5988ac6823bob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
>> Bob Latham <bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>
>>> As a younger man I was left inclined believe it or not. I can
>>> remember trotting out phrases like - "The Tories understand the
>>> price of everything and the value of nothing", I voted for Blair.
>
>>> Around 1990 I was head of team who won an award from our
>>> employer. I remember being gutted because the award was to be
>>> presented to me by Tory MP John Redwood. I had to go and shake
>>> his hand, the last thing I wanted to do. My displeasure was
>>> written right across my face. For some years now I've read his
>>> blog regularly and now find him very sensible. I somehow feel I
>>> should apologise to him but I'm sure he wouldn't remember it
>>> anyway.
>
>>> However, as I got older my views changed considerably. I started
>>> to see Labour as unrealistic and kept asking questions like "and
>>> who's going to pay for that"? etc.
>
>>> I wasted my time worrying, I voted conservative but ended up with
>>> a high tax, high spend, net-stupid supporting incompetent
>>> government that calls itself Conservative but it isn't.
>
>> Almost the exact opposite of my politics. I started off as a
>> "Caring Conservative" - Harold MacMillan style, but the party
>> started getting more and more "Me" "me" rather than "us". MT turned
>> me right off. So, I probably don't vote except in local elections
>> where I'm voting for someone I know or know a lot about.
>
> Not unique I'm sure but your path isn't the standard model. I've
> found most people become less idealistic and more realistic even
> cynical as they age.
>
> I was no fan of Mrs. T at the time. Greed, load's a-money vulgarity
> didn't sit well with me. Neither did slaughtering trade unions which
> admittedly they brought on themselves but they needed to be limited
> not destroyed.
>
> My employer at the time offered me free shares which I saw as
> political bribery and I had principles. :-) That and a few other
> things taught me that standing on those principles cost me and my
> wife but did nothing to change the world. I never had those shares -
> bloody fool me. I would now.
>
> Bob.
>
>

Basically, in youth you believe you can change the world. As you age bitter
experience shows you can’t. (With one or two notable exceptions).

In article <sme00o$b8p$1@dont-email.me>,
Indy Jess John <bathwatchdog@OMITTHISgooglemail.com> wrote:
> On 09/11/2021 08:08, Bob Latham wrote:
> > In article<59883c576ebob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
> > Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
> >> In article<5988382471bob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
> >> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
> >>> In article<598635c94fbob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
> >>> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
> >
> >>>> https://youtu.be/F_p4nvqZLQg
> >
> >>> Here's another one for all the lefties to chew on.
> >
> >>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESE0CPR_qdE
> >
> >>> Lefties seem to love anything they think will shut down Britain.
> >
> >> New tweet from Allison Pearson of the Telegraph.
> >
> >> "Why can't @BBCNews say that Covid cases are plummeting? It's
> >> looking embarrassing now".
> >
> > Last night on GBNews, whole section (not Harwood) on why isn't
> > main stream TV reporting that cases have been dropping since 20th
> > October.

> Last night on BBC Points West they presented actual figures, of new
> cases and where they were, how many Covid patients are in
> Intensive Care and the proportion of them who are not vaccinated,
> with not a graph in sight, just facts compared with the same
> figures a week previous.

It sounds as though pressure from GBNews and Allison Pearson and
others eventually pushed them into some admission over cases they
were clearly reluctant to reveal. The decline had been going on since
20/10.

I'm not sure I understand why no graphs is an advantage.

> I have no idea what GBNews was watching, but my TV (on a mainstream
> broadcast) gave me two pieces of information: that in my area the
> number of new cases is reducing; and that even so, my area that
> reduced number is considerably above the national average (where
> the figures are gradually reducing, not plummeting). My area was
> a prolific user of the lab that gave thousands of false negatives
> so it is no surprise it is currently an infection rate hot spot.

I'm glad they got round to it eventually, even if they were
embarrassed into it.

Bob.

On 09/11/2021 14:40, Bob Latham wrote:

> I'm glad they got round to it eventually, even if they were
> embarrassed into it.

They were giving that information for several months beforehand. So
hardly "eventually".

Jim

Bob Latham <bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
> In article <sme00o$b8p$1@dont-email.me>,
> Indy Jess John <bathwatchdog@OMITTHISgooglemail.com> wrote:
>> On 09/11/2021 08:08, Bob Latham wrote:
>>> In article<59883c576ebob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
>>> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>>>> In article<5988382471bob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
>>>> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>>>>> In article<598635c94fbob@sick-of-spam.invalid>,
>>>>> Bob Latham<bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>>>>> https://youtu.be/F_p4nvqZLQg
>>>
>>>>> Here's another one for all the lefties to chew on.
>>>
>>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESE0CPR_qdE
>>>
>>>>> Lefties seem to love anything they think will shut down Britain.
>>>
>>>> New tweet from Allison Pearson of the Telegraph.
>>>
>>>> "Why can't @BBCNews say that Covid cases are plummeting? It's
>>>> looking embarrassing now".
>>>
>>> Last night on GBNews, whole section (not Harwood) on why isn't
>>> main stream TV reporting that cases have been dropping since 20th
>>> October.
>
>> Last night on BBC Points West they presented actual figures, of new
>> cases and where they were, how many Covid patients are in
>> Intensive Care and the proportion of them who are not vaccinated,
>> with not a graph in sight, just facts compared with the same
>> figures a week previous.
>
> It sounds as though pressure from GBNews and Allison Pearson and
> others eventually pushed them into some admission over cases they
> were clearly reluctant to reveal. The decline had been going on since
> 20/10.
>
> I'm not sure I understand why no graphs is an advantage.
>
>> I have no idea what GBNews was watching, but my TV (on a mainstream
>> broadcast) gave me two pieces of information: that in my area the
>> number of new cases is reducing; and that even so, my area that
>> reduced number is considerably above the national average (where
>> the figures are gradually reducing, not plummeting). My area was
>> a prolific user of the lab that gave thousands of false negatives
>> so it is no surprise it is currently an infection rate hot spot.
>
> I'm glad they got round to it eventually, even if they were
> embarrassed into it.
>
> Bob.
>
>

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

If you look at the 1 month data, and look at the 7 rolling average, it is
not at all obvious that cases are rapidly falling. The last week of data is
lower, but in grey as it is regarded as incomplete (ie more data may come
in I suppose). Remember half term is a confounding factor in the October
figures. I’d not put any money on the case rates going up or down
significantly until I’d seen another two or three weeks of data. I suppose
the good news is there is little evidence of an exponential upwards trend,
so the vaccines appear to be holding the line.

On 09/11/2021 14:27, Bob Latham wrote:
>
> Actually, seems to me his assessment of the situation in that video
> is spot on. He showed a graph with cases falling and said just that.
> It turns out that the cases have been falling just as he said.
>
> What he said was correct.

But the comparison with what other news outlets was saying may not have
been, because we aren't told the source of the figures they were giving,
and therefore we don't know whether or not he was comparing like with
like. The graph he showed was for England only, whereas commonly
national news media use figures for the entire UK, and as far as the
children's infection figures reported by the BBC are concerned:

- The BBC's figures seem to have come from the ONS, which were for
different age ranges from the graph he showed;

- A graph in the second video disproved his claim in the first!

--

Fake news kills!

I may be contacted via the contact address given on my website:
www.macfh.co.uk

On 09/11/2021 15:03, Tweed wrote:
>
> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom
>
> If you look at the 1 month data, and look at the 7 rolling average, it is
> not at all obvious that cases are rapidly falling. The last week of data is
> lower, but in grey as it is regarded as incomplete (ie more data may come
> in I suppose). Remember half term is a confounding factor in the October
> figures. I’d not put any money on the case rates going up or down
> significantly until I’d seen another two or three weeks of data. I suppose
> the good news is there is little evidence of an exponential upwards trend,
> so the vaccines appear to be holding the line.

I don't normally +1 without further comment, but do so here

+1

--

Fake news kills!

I may be contacted via the contact address given on my website:
www.macfh.co.uk

In article <sme2jp$v6v$1@dont-email.me>,
Tweed <usenet.tweed@gmail.com> wrote:

> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

> If you look at the 1 month data, and look at the 7 rolling average,
> it is not at all obvious that cases are rapidly falling. The last
> week of data is lower, but in grey as it is regarded as incomplete
> (ie more data may come in I suppose). Remember half term is a
> confounding factor in the October figures. I'd not put any money on
> the case rates going up or down significantly until I'd seen
> another two or three weeks of data. I suppose the good news is
> there is little evidence of an exponential upwards trend, so the
> vaccines appear to be holding the line.

I have this graph.

http://www.mightyoak.org.uk/cv19/cases4.jpg

I agree about the future, it may well shoot back up again, nobody
knows but that wasn't the point.

Bob.

On 09/11/2021 17:51, Bob Latham wrote:
>
> In article <sme2jp$v6v$1@dont-email.me>,
> Tweed <usenet.tweed@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom
>>
>> If you look at the 1 month data, and look at the 7 rolling average,
>> it is not at all obvious that cases are rapidly falling. The last
>> week of data is lower, but in grey as it is regarded as incomplete
>> (ie more data may come in I suppose). Remember half term is a
>> confounding factor in the October figures. I'd not put any money on
>> the case rates going up or down significantly until I'd seen
>> another two or three weeks of data. I suppose the good news is
>> there is little evidence of an exponential upwards trend, so the
>> vaccines appear to be holding the line.
>
> I have this graph.
>
> http://www.mightyoak.org.uk/cv19/cases4.jpg

Yet another pointless breach of someone else's copyright. Anyway,
that's the graph from the second video clip that disagrees with his
claims in the first, in that it shows that infection rates in under-20s
had been falling for less than a week, whereas in the previous video
he'd claimed they'd been falling for two weeks.

> I agree about the future, it may well shoot back up again, nobody
> knows but that wasn't the point.

Actually, that was always the *MOST IMPORTANT* point, and why GBNews's
self-propagandising by dissing others was a thoroughly unprofessional
waste of time, telling us absolutely nothing about the state of the
pandemic, but giving us every reason to distrust GBNews as a reliable
news source.

--

Fake news kills!

I may be contacted via the contact address given on my website:
www.macfh.co.uk

Bob Latham <bob@sick-of-spam.invalid> wrote:
> In article <sme2jp$v6v$1@dont-email.me>,
> Tweed <usenet.tweed@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom
>
>> If you look at the 1 month data, and look at the 7 rolling average,
>> it is not at all obvious that cases are rapidly falling. The last
>> week of data is lower, but in grey as it is regarded as incomplete
>> (ie more data may come in I suppose). Remember half term is a
>> confounding factor in the October figures. I'd not put any money on
>> the case rates going up or down significantly until I'd seen
>> another two or three weeks of data. I suppose the good news is
>> there is little evidence of an exponential upwards trend, so the
>> vaccines appear to be holding the line.
>
> I have this graph.
>
> http://www.mightyoak.org.uk/cv19/cases4.jpg
>
> I agree about the future, it may well shoot back up again, nobody
> knows but that wasn't the point.
>
> Bob.
>
>

I’ve no idea where your graph comes from. It’s immediately suspicious as
its data encompasses the period that the official data marks as
unconfirmed. I don’t believe the official data is dishonest, so I’m basing
my decisions on that source alone.

In article <smedhu$sdn$1@dont-email.me>,
Tweed <usenet.tweed@gmail.com> wrote:

> I've no idea where your graph comes from. It's immediately
> suspicious as its data encompasses the period that the official
> data marks as unconfirmed. I don't believe the official data is
> dishonest, so I'm basing my decisions on that source alone.

Mathematician James Ward.

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1457446058129334275?s=20

Bob.

On 09/11/2021 18:53, Bob Latham wrote:
>
> Mathematician James Ward.
>
> https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1457446058129334275?s=20

I note that by choosing a short time span of the last two months he
misses out most conveniently the highest and lowest points of the
pandemic and also emphasises, by the consequent stretch of the vertical
scale, the recent fall, thereby giving a rather misleading impression of
the state of things. I don't wish to exaggerate and press alarm bells
but actually things are worse than he makes out. Despite the falls of
the last two weeks, we still have the highest daily case rates in the
entire world, and they have not yet reached as low even as their
*AVERAGE* of the last four months or so, daily hospital admissions are
still bumping around just under 1,000 a day, and daily deaths are still
bumping around just under 200 a day. And the longer this continues, the
higher the probability of a new mutation making things worse.

--

Fake news kills!

I may be contacted via the contact address given on my website:
www.macfh.co.uk

Java Jive <java@evij.com.invalid> wrote:
> On 09/11/2021 18:53, Bob Latham wrote:
>>
>> Mathematician James Ward.
>>
>> https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1457446058129334275?s=20
>
> I note that by choosing a short time span of the last two months he
> misses out most conveniently the highest and lowest points of the
> pandemic and also emphasises, by the consequent stretch of the vertical
> scale, the recent fall, thereby giving a rather misleading impression of
> the state of things. I don't wish to exaggerate and press alarm bells
> but actually things are worse than he makes out. Despite the falls of
> the last two weeks, we still have the highest daily case rates in the
> entire world, and they have not yet reached as low even as their
> *AVERAGE* of the last four months or so, daily hospital admissions are
> still bumping around just under 1,000 a day, and daily deaths are still
> bumping around just under 200 a day. And the longer this continues, the
> higher the probability of a new mutation making things worse.
>

We don’t have the highest daily case rate in the world.

UK is about 380 per 100,000

There are many countries in Europe alone that are currently worse, and
largely on an upward trend at the moment.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/country-overviews

Prof Sarah Gilbert, main person behind the Oxford vaccine is not
particularly worried about mutations. (Various newspaper articles can be
found)

In article <smehcm$sl4$1@dont-email.me>, Java Jive <java@evij.com.invalid>
wrote:
> On 09/11/2021 18:53, Bob Latham wrote:
> >
> > Mathematician James Ward.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1457446058129334275?s=20

> I note that by choosing a short time span of the last two months he
> misses out most conveniently the highest and lowest points of the
> pandemic and also emphasises, by the consequent stretch of the vertical
> scale, the recent fall, thereby giving a rather misleading impression of
> the state of things. I don't wish to exaggerate and press alarm bells
> but actually things are worse than he makes out. Despite the falls of
> the last two weeks, we still have the highest daily case rates in the
> entire world, and they have not yet reached as low even as their
> *AVERAGE* of the last four months or so, daily hospital admissions are
> still bumping around just under 1,000 a day, and daily deaths are still
> bumping around just under 200 a day. And the longer this continues, the
> higher the probability of a new mutation making things worse.

I have discovered, first hand, that the statistics might be a bit over the
top. I, as an infected person, have a reference number. As a close contact
of my wife, who also has Covid, I have a different reference number and am
even told to go for a test - despite the fact that on my other reference
number, I'va lready been for a test and come out positive. Despite the
common NHS number, DoB and address, I'm two statistics where I should only
be one.

--
from KT24 in Surrey, England
"I'd rather die of exhaustion than die of boredom" Thomas Carlyle