On 16/03/2023 17:56, Sargan wrote:
> Will they be the new standard offering for new builds .

They already are. I pent a year next to tow new builds and they were
built exactly according to building regs, with MASSIVE insulation (at
least 6" everywhere), air tight doors. (even down to needing clingfilm
over the toilet bowls, and extractor fans to meet the pressure tests and
heat pumps).

Here there is no gas, and oil is now not allowed I think, They had that
or propane, and that was cheaper. The units were patently too small to
really work in winter, and log burners had been added as well, without
ventilation either.

It will all come good when we finally go nuclear, and electricity gets
to be cheap as chips, and climate change is seen to be a load of
bollocks - and they can retro install 3 phase direct heating coils instead.

I mean, if energy is virtually free, who cares about efficiency?

--
New Socialism consists essentially in being seen to have your heart in
the right place whilst your head is in the clouds and your hand is in
someone else's pocket.

On 16/03/2023 19:22, Theo wrote:
> At the very least, predicting where energy prices will go is very much an
> open question.

Along with banks that are too big to fail, and too big to save, the
idiots nominally in charge of being top arsehole of the year are finally
catching on to the fact that in energy is too expensive, even though its
massively profitable for them, its massively damaging to a society and
its political stability.

Being Art Students who cant count beyond ten without taking their socks
off,. Politicos do not understand that everything a post industrial
country does requires energy. Everything. In fact when it comes down to
it, all cost of doing anything boils down to materials plus labour. And
the materials represent the energy and labour needed to make them and so on.

And the more productive an industry is the more its costs will be
material and therefore energy, not labour.

Which is why German industry is going down the pan, and there is a
sudden acceptance of nuclear power as "environmentally friendly" all
across the EU.

What does this mean for energy pricing? It sets an upper limit
politically on what it can be sold for.

And since the price is set these days purely by political decision,s it
will be not allowed to go to the point of civil unrest or "far right"
bystanders kicking Sunak or the Germy Cunt in the nuts etc etc.

So leaving aside what the arseholes *say* they are doing to make your
life less infinitely worse than they feel they can get away with and
still get re-elected, the facts of the matter are that Hinkley Point B
is contracted to deliver at 9.5p per unit into the same grid that
Hinkley Point A used to, So that is pretty much the cost that energy
will fall to if enough nuclear power stations are built, and if they
are, windmills and solar panels, batteries and hydrogen stores will all
vanish back to the museums they came from

Rolls Royce is working on IIRC 6.5p per unit.

The political equation is, shorn of all the waffle, posturing and virtue
signalling, how far can we screw the plebs and still get re-elected, and
with Labour now indistinguishable from the Tories, that is a very long
way indeed. But there comes a point at which the plebs are so broke
there is no more wealth to extract from them, and then they will,
because its a shot to nothing, vote in something like the Reform party.

So that wont do. Not as long as there are still any vestiges of democracy.
Now the EU is nice, because that only pretends to have a vote, so the
elites would like to be in that, but Brexit fucked that up.
Then there is Russia and Russian gas. Russian gas meant huge profits for
Siemens windmills inc. As they could sell the stupid Greens windmills
and solar panels while all the time running their factories off, of
course, gas, coal and nuclear.
Bu then Russia invaded Ukraine and they realise Russia want their
friend, and all those Natashas they had fucked on their visits to Moscow
were honey traps and Putin had the negatives...Oh dear. Which is why
Scholz dragged he feet mightily in supporting Ukraine.

So, the price of green profits was Russian dominance of Europe, and when
Putins tanks rolled into Brussels there was a sneaking suspicion that
the apparatchiks that ended up running the new USSR would not be the
same ones that were in the EU now.

A shiver ran up their collective spines.
If they stuck with the green nonsense without Russian gas, they would be
shafted by their electorates and a civil war in Europe and collapse of
the EU, If they continued with Russian gas and denied support to
Ukraine, Putin would annexe the whole of Eastern and indeed Western
Europe, his woke agitprop having rendered it ripe for takeover. And they
would still end up in the gulags.

*Quelle Horreur!*

What was to be done?

"When things get tough, you just have to lie" famously said alcoholic
arsehole of the year, Jean Claude Juncker.

Reluctantly they realised that without Russian gas to underpin the
Renewable fraud, they would have to use nuclear, so in a fit of
doublethink beyond credibility ' Nuclear is now 'renewable and sustainable'

Needs must when the Devil drives.

So the new meme will be 'renewables' AND nuclear. Until enough people
point out that if you have gone to the huge expense of building out
enough nuclear to supply the needs of the nations after dark when the
wind isn't blowing, there is no fucking poi8nt in having any windmills
or solar panels at all, and that if nuclear power is hitting the grid at
8p a unit, why are we paying 40p?

And the answer is to pay for all the windmills solar panels batteries
interconnects underutilised grid extensions and STOR which we need if
we are to have renewable energy.

So the answer to "how high will energy prices go?" is 'just short of the
level at which civil unrest due to massive inflation threatens the
positions of our elites' and, by my reckoning we are there already which
is why the gummint is borrowing money to pay off the energy companies
with one hand while they tax them with the other to keep energy just
about affordable.

And why they have announced nuclear is now kosher.

So factor in 20-30p a unit while they rake in as much renewable profit
as possible.

Unless the current rash of bank crises fucks the whole international
debt market to the point of no return. Or China invades Taiwan, or
Russia. Not that anyone wants Russians anyway , although Russia without
the Russians is a good prize. As every German knows.

--
There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale
returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.

Mark Twain

On 17/03/2023 07:38, alan_m wrote:
> On 16/03/2023 12:19, Vir Campestris wrote:
>> On 13/03/2023 10:04, alan_m wrote:
>>> On 13/03/2023 09:10, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
>>>> IME even surveyors dont remove plasterboard to check proper
>>>> insulation installation...
>>>
>>> But these days they may use a high end thermal camera.
>>>
>> Ah, so you have to make sure you get your survey done in the winter?
>>
>> Because if the heating isn't on there will be no hot spots.
>>
>> Andy
>
> Rare to have the outside and inside of the property at the same
> temperature at any time of year.
>
Not that rare to within a few degrees.

I know that the three months of winter chew up twice as much oil as i
use in the remaining 9 months

I believe UK (and world) average temperature is 9°C. Plus or moins. I
like to keep the lower part of the hose around ~19°C and the upper at
~17°C so lets say ~18°C - 9°C is my *average* temperature differential.

But in winter than can go to - with wind-chill at least double that. But
in summer its the other way around as temperatures often climb above 15°C.

In the spring and autumn though, with daytime solar gains, those just
match teh losses at might and I need almost no heating at all.
The reality is that my CH boiler, which I never bother to switch off,
simply stops calling for heat from about April thorough to November.

And in June I tend to shut the Aga off as well. And service it.

The reality is that one needs - with a well insulated house with UFH and
massive concrete floors, big south facing double glazed windows,
virtually no heat beyond solar gains from April to September.

Heat pumps will cope.

However the reality is that whilst October and March are survivable on
low heat input, December January and ₣ebruary demand a huge increase in
energy input and that is either going to require auxiliary heating or a
failure to maintain sufficient internal temperatures

--
“People believe certain stories because everyone important tells them,
and people tell those stories because everyone important believes them.
Indeed, when a conventional wisdom is at its fullest strength, one’s
agreement with that conventional wisdom becomes almost a litmus test of
one’s suitability to be taken seriously.”

Paul Krugman

On Thu, 16 Mar 2023 17:56:52 +0000, Sargan wrote:

> On 12/03/2023 15:59, David wrote:
>> <https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-11830589/How-heat-
pumps-
>> leave-homes-cold-owners-having-ripped-out.html>
>>
>>
>
> Air Source Heat Pumps have a couple of major issues.
>
> 1. Efficiency drops with ambient temp, so the 4x efficiency that nice
> Salesman talks about, is great when air Temp above 35C (when you don't
> need Heat Pump At below 10C efficiency drops, and really drops off as
> you get close to 0C (when you need most heat)
> COP graph will show the trend.
> If installed form new - at least you won't have boiler costs ... but if
> replacing a boiler seriously check your payback period. Most Sales guys
> base payback on 4x efficiency
>
> 2. Noisy .... these things can make a lot of noise, as the compressor
> fans run.
>
>
> 3. Life expectancy .... the cheaper ones (being advertised everywhere)
> have a poor life expectancy, less than 10 years .. expensive to replace.
> A simple check is what is the warranty period .... does it at least
> match the payback period .... most don't 2yr for many.
>
>
> Ground source is more efficient and not impacted by ambient temp, but
> much more expensive to install & run.
>
> Will they be the new standard offering for new builds .... or will
> Hydrogen boilers become the way forward. Competed village trials going
> on currently.
>>

To help, I have a chart: https://ibb.co/bQLLzPp

On 16/03/2023 19:22, Theo wrote:
> My ASHP has a SCOP at 35C flow temp of 5.4. That's a bit low flow temp if
> you have radiators (mine is about 40C unless doing hot water) so the real
> SCOP is going to be a bit less.

Our radiators run about 50C.

It would not be practical to install radiators big enough to get the
same heat output at 35.

It's also not practical to add enough insulation to our Listed house to
require less heat.

Some of us aren't going to heat pumps any time soon.

Andy