On Monday, November 6, 2023 at 4:47:47 PM UTC+11, Hamish Laws wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 1, 2023 at 7:37:43 AM UTC+11, Scott Dorsey wrote:
> > Lynn McGuire <lynnmc...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > >On 10/27/2023 8:25 AM, Michael F. Stemper wrote:
> > >>
> > >> Seattle is ranked at #77 for murder and non-negligent manslaughter
> > >> (with 3.74 per 100,000). Texas cities with higher rates include
> > >> Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Fort Worth, Corpus Christi, Denton,
> > >> Arlington, and Laredo.
> > >
> > >Plus in Texas, I carry. Usually a .357 with either 5 rounds or 7
> > >rounds. My carry license is good for several other states but not WA state.
> >
> > The one thing I learned in the war is that carrying a weapon makes you feel
> > a lot safer, and therefore more likely to do something unsafe, while often
> > not really making you much safer at all.
> >
> > Very strange, too, but (ObSF) I believe Haldeman's _Forever War_ addresses
> > this briefly.
> It's referenced in Tunnel in the Sky as well.
>

and, of course, as soon as I posted that I saw other people had made the point...

On 11/5/2023 7:22 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
> In article <uhrls8$16hkj$2@dont-email.me>,
> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On 10/31/2023 10:55 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>> On 31 Oct 2023 02:05:03 -0000, kludge@panix.com (Scott Dorsey) wrote:
>>>
>>>> Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
>>>>> On 10/30/2023 11:58 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Heinlein popularized the phrase "An armed society is a polite society",
>>>>>> although contemporary events don't necessarily support that dictum.
>>>>>>
>>>>> Expanded logically that would also prevent wars....
>>>>
>>>> Henry Kissinger believed it would, and the whole Mutually Assured Destruction
>>>> strategy comes from that idea. I won't say it worked, but by the same token
>>>> I can't be sure it didn't.
>>>
>>> It appears to be working so far ...
>>
>> I think that we are in the thirty day window until the next nuclear
>> bombs are dropped in anger.
>
> [Hal Heydt]
> What do you count as the first day of that "30 day window"?

The day that email posted, Oct 31, 2023. As Paul mentioned, it is a
moving window.

Lynn

In article <uibgti$jqis$2@dont-email.me>,
Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>On 11/5/2023 7:22 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>> In article <uhrls8$16hkj$2@dont-email.me>,
>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> I think that we are in the thirty day window until the next nuclear
>>> bombs are dropped in anger.
>>
>> [Hal Heydt]
>> What do you count as the first day of that "30 day window"?
>
>The day that email posted, Oct 31, 2023. As Paul mentioned, it is a
>moving window.

[Hal Heydt]
So... If no nuclear war breaks out before 1 Dec. 2023, will you
concede that you were in error? Or will you "move the goal
posts"?

On 11/10/2023 5:00 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
> In article <uibgti$jqis$2@dont-email.me>,
> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On 11/5/2023 7:22 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>>> In article <uhrls8$16hkj$2@dont-email.me>,
>>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> I think that we are in the thirty day window until the next nuclear
>>>> bombs are dropped in anger.
>>>
>>> [Hal Heydt]
>>> What do you count as the first day of that "30 day window"?
>>
>> The day that email posted, Oct 31, 2023. As Paul mentioned, it is a
>> moving window.
>
> [Hal Heydt]
> So... If no nuclear war breaks out before 1 Dec. 2023, will you
> concede that you were in error? Or will you "move the goal
> posts"?

He's already admitted he _is_ moving the goal posts. "As Paul
mentioned, it is a moving window."

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

In article <s3xpGF.3x5@kithrup.com>,
Dorothy J Heydt <djheydt@kithrup.com> wrote:
>In article <uibgti$jqis$2@dont-email.me>,
>Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>On 11/5/2023 7:22 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>>> In article <uhrls8$16hkj$2@dont-email.me>,
>>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> I think that we are in the thirty day window until the next nuclear
>>>> bombs are dropped in anger.
>>>
>>> [Hal Heydt]
>>> What do you count as the first day of that "30 day window"?
>>
>>The day that email posted, Oct 31, 2023. As Paul mentioned, it is a
>>moving window.
>
>[Hal Heydt]
>So... If no nuclear war breaks out before 1 Dec. 2023, will you
>concede that you were in error? Or will you "move the goal
>posts"?

Doesn't the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists make that movement for us?
--scott
--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."

On 11/11/2023 8:19 PM, Scott Dorsey wrote:
> In article <s3xpGF.3x5@kithrup.com>,
> Dorothy J Heydt <djheydt@kithrup.com> wrote:
>> In article <uibgti$jqis$2@dont-email.me>,
>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> On 11/5/2023 7:22 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>>>> In article <uhrls8$16hkj$2@dont-email.me>,
>>>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>> I think that we are in the thirty day window until the next nuclear
>>>>> bombs are dropped in anger.
>>>>
>>>> [Hal Heydt]
>>>> What do you count as the first day of that "30 day window"?
>>>
>>> The day that email posted, Oct 31, 2023. As Paul mentioned, it is a
>>> moving window.
>>
>> [Hal Heydt]
>> So... If no nuclear war breaks out before 1 Dec. 2023, will you
>> concede that you were in error? Or will you "move the goal
>> posts"?
>
> Doesn't the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists make that movement for us?
> --scott

Have they set their infamous clock at a 1/10th of a second to Armageddon
yet ?

Lynn

On 11/11/2023 6:53 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
> On 11/11/2023 8:19 PM, Scott Dorsey wrote:
>> In article <s3xpGF.3x5@kithrup.com>,
>> Dorothy J Heydt <djheydt@kithrup.com> wrote:
>>> In article <uibgti$jqis$2@dont-email.me>,
>>> Lynn McGuire  <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> On 11/5/2023 7:22 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>>>>> In article <uhrls8$16hkj$2@dont-email.me>,
>>>>> Lynn McGuire  <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>> I think that we are in the thirty day window until the next nuclear
>>>>>> bombs are dropped in anger.
>>>>>
>>>>> [Hal Heydt]
>>>>> What do you count as the first day of that "30 day window"?
>>>>
>>>> The day that email posted, Oct 31, 2023.  As Paul mentioned, it is a
>>>> moving window.
>>>
>>> [Hal Heydt]
>>> So...  If no nuclear war breaks out before 1 Dec. 2023, will you
>>> concede that you were in error?  Or will you "move the goal
>>> posts"?
>>
>> Doesn't the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists make that movement for us?
>> --scott
>
> Have they set their infamous clock at a 1/10th of a second to Armageddon
> yet ?
>
No, because they NEVER set it that close to midnight.

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

On 11/11/2023 10:20 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
> On 11/11/2023 6:53 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>> On 11/11/2023 8:19 PM, Scott Dorsey wrote:
>>> In article <s3xpGF.3x5@kithrup.com>,
>>> Dorothy J Heydt <djheydt@kithrup.com> wrote:
>>>> In article <uibgti$jqis$2@dont-email.me>,
>>>> Lynn McGuire  <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>> On 11/5/2023 7:22 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>>>>>> In article <uhrls8$16hkj$2@dont-email.me>,
>>>>>> Lynn McGuire  <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>> I think that we are in the thirty day window until the next nuclear
>>>>>>> bombs are dropped in anger.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> [Hal Heydt]
>>>>>> What do you count as the first day of that "30 day window"?
>>>>>
>>>>> The day that email posted, Oct 31, 2023.  As Paul mentioned, it is a
>>>>> moving window.
>>>>
>>>> [Hal Heydt]
>>>> So...  If no nuclear war breaks out before 1 Dec. 2023, will you
>>>> concede that you were in error?  Or will you "move the goal
>>>> posts"?
>>>
>>> Doesn't the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists make that movement for us?
>>> --scott
>>
>> Have they set their infamous clock at a 1/10th of a second to
>> Armageddon yet ?
>>
> No, because they NEVER set it that close to midnight.

I believe that we are closest to nuclear war since the Cuban Missile
Crisis. Israel is fighting a war on two fronts right now, if the third
front goes wild then all bets are off. Four fronts will be nigh unto
impossible.

Turkey moving nuclear equipped submarines into the Med last week was not
cool. Our two carrier groups in the Med are reputedly active pinging
like crazy. They don't normally actively ping unless things are really
bad, it is bad for sea creatures and submarines.

Lynn

On Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 6:18:24 AM UTC, Lynn McGuire wrote:
> On 11/11/2023 10:20 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
> > On 11/11/2023 6:53 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
> >> On 11/11/2023 8:19 PM, Scott Dorsey wrote:
> >>> In article <s3xpG...@kithrup.com>,
> >>> Dorothy J Heydt <djh...@kithrup.com> wrote:
> >>>> In article <uibgti$jqis$2...@dont-email.me>,
> >>>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmc...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>>> On 11/5/2023 7:22 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
> >>>>>> In article <uhrls8$16hkj$2...@dont-email.me>,
> >>>>>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmc...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>>>>> I think that we are in the thirty day window until the next nuclear
> >>>>>>> bombs are dropped in anger.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> [Hal Heydt]
> >>>>>> What do you count as the first day of that "30 day window"?
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The day that email posted, Oct 31, 2023. As Paul mentioned, it is a
> >>>>> moving window.
> >>>>
> >>>> [Hal Heydt]
> >>>> So... If no nuclear war breaks out before 1 Dec. 2023, will you
> >>>> concede that you were in error? Or will you "move the goal
> >>>> posts"?
> >>>
> >>> Doesn't the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists make that movement for us?
> >>> --scott
> >>
> >> Have they set their infamous clock at a 1/10th of a second to
> >> Armageddon yet ?
> >>
> > No, because they NEVER set it that close to midnight.
> I believe that we are closest to nuclear war since the Cuban Missile
> Crisis. Israel is fighting a war on two fronts right now, if the third
> front goes wild then all bets are off. Four fronts will be nigh unto
> impossible.
>
> Turkey moving nuclear equipped submarines into the Med last week was not
> cool. Our two carrier groups in the Med are reputedly active pinging
> like crazy. They don't normally actively ping unless things are really
> bad, it is bad for sea creatures and submarines.
>
> Lynn
In what sense are Turkey's submarines nuclear-equipped? As best I can tell they have some perhaps very quiet conventional submarines armed with torpedoes and cruise missiles, while the only nuclear weapons on Turkish soil are provided by (and presumably under the control of) the United States. If the carrier groups are pinging like crazy, my guess is that they are checking for unmanned drones/torpedoes/mines deployed covertly by Iran.

Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
>On 11/11/2023 10:20 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>> On 11/11/2023 6:53 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>> On 11/11/2023 8:19 PM, Scott Dorsey wrote:
>>>> In article <s3xpGF.3x5@kithrup.com>,
>>>> Dorothy J Heydt <djheydt@kithrup.com> wrote:
>>>>> In article <uibgti$jqis$2@dont-email.me>,
>>>>> Lynn McGuire  <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>> On 11/5/2023 7:22 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>>>>>>> In article <uhrls8$16hkj$2@dont-email.me>,
>>>>>>> Lynn McGuire  <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>> I think that we are in the thirty day window until the next nuclear
>>>>>>>> bombs are dropped in anger.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> [Hal Heydt]
>>>>>>> What do you count as the first day of that "30 day window"?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The day that email posted, Oct 31, 2023.  As Paul mentioned, it is a
>>>>>> moving window.
>>>>>
>>>>> [Hal Heydt]
>>>>> So...  If no nuclear war breaks out before 1 Dec. 2023, will you
>>>>> concede that you were in error?  Or will you "move the goal
>>>>> posts"?
>>>>
>>>> Doesn't the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists make that movement for us?
>>>> --scott
>>>
>>> Have they set their infamous clock at a 1/10th of a second to
>>> Armageddon yet ?
>>>
>> No, because they NEVER set it that close to midnight.
>
>I believe that we are closest to nuclear war since the Cuban Missile
>Crisis.

I think you've been reading far too much apocolyptic science fiction.