On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:52:06 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> > On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >> On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
> >>>>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
> >>>>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
> >>>>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
> >>>>>>>>> are buying or selling.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
> >>>>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
> >>>>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
> >>>>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year..
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
> >>>>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
> >>>>>>>> people will pay.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
> >>>>>>> supplies.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
> >>>>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
> >>>>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
> >>>>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
> >>>>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
> >>>>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
> >>>>>>> getting a house built.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
> >>>>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
> >>>>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
> >>>>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
> >>>>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
> >>>>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
> >>>>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
> >>>>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
> >>>>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
> >>>>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
> >>>>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
> >>>>>> homes since October.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
> >>>> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
> >>>> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
> >>>> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
> >>>> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
> >>>>
> >>>> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
> >>>> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Record low inventory:
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
> >>>>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
> >>>>>
> >>>>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
> >>>>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
> >>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
> >>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
> >>>
> >>> I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
> >>> when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
> >>> there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
> >> Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.
> >
> > Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
> > the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
> > builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
> > both claim that the shortages continue.
> >
> > https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-market-update-may-2021
>
> If you don't have to lower your price..... Lumber prices are still high
> but do not need to be. There is no shortage, just a killing to be made.
>
>
>
> >
> > "The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
> > heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
> > and shortages in just about every building material category have created
> > an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
> > pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
> > than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
> > is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."
>
> In our area and ins San Antonio Tx I cannot agree. Homes being build by
> the thousands are not presold, builders are only selling spec homes
> after completion now.
>
> >
> > And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.
> >
> > https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/homebuilders-respond-say-lumber-producers-are-misleadingly
> >
> > "The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
> > going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
> > to Random Lengths – is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
> > shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
> > the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
> > April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
> > domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
> > boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
> > American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
> > that rely on lumber products."
>
> I just got an industry newsletter today indicating that wholesale
> inventories are growing.

On 5/7/2021 2:23 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>
>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>
>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>
>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>
>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>>
>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>
>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>>> long?
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>
>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>
>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>
>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>>> much.
>>>
>>
>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>>
>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>>
>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>
> Which exemption? Is that a TX thing?
>

On 5/7/2021 2:41 PM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
> On 5/7/2021 3:23 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet>
>>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon
>>>>>>>>>> <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski
>>>>>>>>>>>>> <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>         I'm betting there will be a lot of people with
>>>>>>>>>>>>> upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area
>>>>>>>>>>>>> is less
>>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant
>>>>>>>>>>>>> economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe
>>>>>>>>>>>> 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to
>>>>>>>>>>>> relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now.  It will be interesting to see
>>>>>>>>>>> how many
>>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>       I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in
>>>>>>>>>> 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% -  18% if
>>>>>>>>>> you were
>>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K.  30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981  Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15
>>>>>>>>> years. We
>>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage
>>>>>>>>> off Feb,
>>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I
>>>>>>>> think)
>>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest.  We bought in September, with a
>>>>>>>> 14%
>>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage.  A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%.  We
>>>>>>>> paid
>>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed
>>>>>>> at 12%
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K.  $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I wish.  The next house was in VT.  We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300.  It's now $404.  Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Farkin taxes!  You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to
>>>>>>> pay
>>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> We moved from VT to AL.  We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>>> house in VT for ($300K).  Taxes, close to $4K.  It was about 1.5x the
>>>>>> size and *far* nicer.  SWMBO loved the kitchen.  She was rather
>>>>>> pissed
>>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>>> $1500.  Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously.  The RE
>>>>>> agent
>>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either.  It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the
>>>>>> dozens
>>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>>> discount for being over 65.  In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>>> completely after 72.  Other counties forgive it at 65.  GA is a very
>>>>>> retiree friendly state.  Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a
>>>>>>>>>> lot of
>>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing
>>>>>>>>>> prices to
>>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were
>>>>>>>>>> walking
>>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes
>>>>>>>>>> are
>>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs.  Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs.  Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010.  It was locked in for 5
>>>>>>> years.  We
>>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>>> moving in.  We would have paid it off within the next couple of
>>>>>>> years so
>>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us.  But we decided to go
>>>>>>> all
>>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale
>>>>>>> price.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad.  The neutron bomb had
>>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I remember you buying that house.  Have I really been around here
>>>>>> that
>>>>>> long?
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>>
>>>>>    Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>>
>>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs
>>>>> AR.
>>>>>    The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40
>>>>> times
>>>>> smaller.  IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>>
>>>> $24K/yr?!!  I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>>>> much.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying
>>> lately.
>>>
>>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>>>
>>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>>
>> Which exemption?  Is that a TX thing?
>>
>
> Many towns have similar things for seniors  In Florida we have Homestead
> that gives some exemption.  You have to be a resident and US citizen so
> the snowbirds that have second homes here do not qualify.

On 5/7/2021 2:49 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:52:06 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>> On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>>>>>>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>>>>>>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>>>>>>>>>>> are buying or selling.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
>>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>>>>>>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>>>>>>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>>>>>>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>>>>>>>>>> people will pay.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
>>>>>>>>> supplies.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
>>>>>>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
>>>>>>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
>>>>>>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
>>>>>>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
>>>>>>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
>>>>>>>>> getting a house built.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
>>>>>>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
>>>>>>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
>>>>>>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
>>>>>>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
>>>>>>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
>>>>>>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
>>>>>>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
>>>>>>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
>>>>>>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
>>>>>>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
>>>>>>>> homes since October.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
>>>>>> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
>>>>>> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
>>>>>> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
>>>>>> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
>>>>>> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Record low inventory:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
>>>>>>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
>>>>>>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
>>>>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>>>>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>>>>>
>>>>> I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
>>>>> when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
>>>>> there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
>>>> Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.
>>>
>>> Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
>>> the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
>>> builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
>>> both claim that the shortages continue.
>>>
>>> https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-market-update-may-2021
>>
>> If you don't have to lower your price..... Lumber prices are still high
>> but do not need to be. There is no shortage, just a killing to be made.
>>
>>
>>
>>>
>>> "The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
>>> heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
>>> and shortages in just about every building material category have created
>>> an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
>>> pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
>>> than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
>>> is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."
>>
>> In our area and ins San Antonio Tx I cannot agree. Homes being build by
>> the thousands are not presold, builders are only selling spec homes
>> after completion now.
>>
>>>
>>> And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.
>>>
>>> https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/homebuilders-respond-say-lumber-producers-are-misleadingly
>>>
>>> "The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
>>> going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
>>> to Random Lengths – is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
>>> shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
>>> the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
>>> April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
>>> domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
>>> boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
>>> American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
>>> that rely on lumber products."
>>
>> I just got an industry newsletter today indicating that wholesale
>> inventories are growing.
>
> I've read everything you've said (above and below) and it is noteworthy.
>
> However, that "inventory" statement doesn't mean very much without
> some numbers behind it.
>
> Let's say I'm a wholesaler.
>
> Let's say my inventory historically averaged 4000 sheets of OSB per
> month for the 5 years prior to the pandemic. That average always
> kept pace with my demand (orders from builders). Then over the
> past year, it sold down to averaging 2000 sheets per month due to
> the inability to purchase as much as I sold.
>
> Now, over the past 2 months, I've been able to get a few more sheets,
> so now I'm averaging 2500 sheets in inventory per month.
>
> Relatively speaking, it's true that my "inventories are growing", but
> only when compared to the trailing 12 months. They are still down
> compared to historic norms and I still cannot keep up with my demand.
>
> I'm not saying that the shortage is or isn't over nor am I disputing the
> fact that "inventories are growing". All I'm saying is that without seeing
> the numbers behind that statement I have no way of knowing if it's
> equivalent to "The problem has been eliminated" or "Things are getting
> better, but we are not out of the woods yet."

On 5/7/2021 3:28 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:41:36 -0400, Bill <nonegiven@att.net> wrote:
>
>> On 5/7/2021 2:30 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>> On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:09:54 PM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
>>>> On 5/7/2021 1:57 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On the other hand, if I don't trim, there is no danger of any mistakes
>>>>> being made.
>>>>>
>>>> Don't be lazy. As far as mistakes go, the history inherent in the
>>>> newsgroups speaks for itself. Things have often been incorrectly
>>>> attributed to me in various newsgroups, and in the twenty-something
>>>> years I have been using them, nothing nefarious has ever resulted from
>>>> it. On the other hand, it bugs me when folks are too lazy to try to
>>>> trim at all. Especially, when it results in a subsequent message which
>>>> is nothing more than "Oh, me too".
>>>> --
>>>> This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
>>>> https://www.avast.com/antivirus
>>>
>>> Well, we all have things that bug us in one way or another.
>>>
>>> As I'm sure you know, you can continue to be bugged by something pretty
>>> minor in the grand scheme of things, and that is out of your control (except
>>> to mention it) or you can accept what's happening - and has been happening
>>> for the 40+ years that usenet has been around - and allow yourself room
>>> to be bugged by something more substantial.
>>>
>>> Think "Serenity Prayer"
>>
>> No, I do not accept that I can't help change this. There was one
>> particular "offender" whose name I won't mention except to say that it
>> was not you (so I was surprised that you got involved at all).
>
> You can help change this by not posting anymore.
>

Ha, You recognized yourself! But, if you desire, I'll block/filter you.
And if you keep it up, even if you don't.

On 5/7/2021 3:10 PM, Leon wrote:
> On 5/7/2021 11:32 AM, Bill wrote:
>> On 5/7/2021 11:21 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>> On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8:55:55 AM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
>>>> On 5/6/2021 2:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 13:32:04 -0400, Bill <none...@att.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>> Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
>>>>>> long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
>>>>>> seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!
>>>>>
>>>>> It takes a lot more than "a few seconds" to keep the attributions
>>>>> right.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> If you have time to post, you have time to do it right! Don't be a lazy
>>>> <put your favorite vulgar noun here>.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice
>>>>> but it's not as simple as you propose. IOW, stop whining.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>> OK, so I'm confused as to who said what here. It looks like you
>>> said "It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice"
>>>
>>> That's not correct is it?
>>
>> This really troubles you???
>>
>>> Perhaps you should consider changing your Avast settings. Are you
>>> getting paid to advertise for them?
>>>
>>
>>
> Sooo Billlll.  Did you have anything to add to the actual discussion or
> did you just want to add noise.

I think I was one of the first to reply to this new thread. I do have a
question I wanted to ask about assessments, since that topic arose, but
I was waiting for the right time.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

On 5/7/2021 3:10 PM, Leon wrote:

> Sooo Billlll.  Did you have anything to add to the actual discussion or
> did you just want to add noise.

I made my first reply to the thread when it was 54 minutes old (or
"new"). Are you going to play "instigator"?

--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 5:59:50 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> On 5/7/2021 2:49 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> > On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:52:06 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >> On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>> On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
> >>>>>>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
> >>>>>>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
> >>>>>>>>>>> are buying or selling.
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
> >>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
> >>>>>>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
> >>>>>>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
> >>>>>>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
> >>>>>>>>>> people will pay.
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
> >>>>>>>>> supplies.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
> >>>>>>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
> >>>>>>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
> >>>>>>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
> >>>>>>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
> >>>>>>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
> >>>>>>>>> getting a house built.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
> >>>>>>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
> >>>>>>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
> >>>>>>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
> >>>>>>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
> >>>>>>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
> >>>>>>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
> >>>>>>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
> >>>>>>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
> >>>>>>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
> >>>>>>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
> >>>>>>>> homes since October.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
> >>>>>> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
> >>>>>> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
> >>>>>> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
> >>>>>> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
> >>>>>> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Record low inventory:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
> >>>>>>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
> >>>>>>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
> >>>>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
> >>>>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
> >>>>> when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
> >>>>> there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
> >>>> Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published..
> >>>
> >>> Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
> >>> the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
> >>> builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
> >>> both claim that the shortages continue.
> >>>
> >>> https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-market-update-may-2021
> >>
> >> If you don't have to lower your price..... Lumber prices are still high
> >> but do not need to be. There is no shortage, just a killing to be made..
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>>
> >>> "The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
> >>> heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
> >>> and shortages in just about every building material category have created
> >>> an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
> >>> pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
> >>> than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
> >>> is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."
> >>
> >> In our area and ins San Antonio Tx I cannot agree. Homes being build by
> >> the thousands are not presold, builders are only selling spec homes
> >> after completion now.
> >>
> >>>
> >>> And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.
> >>>
> >>> https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/homebuilders-respond-say-lumber-producers-are-misleadingly
> >>>
> >>> "The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
> >>> going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
> >>> to Random Lengths – is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
> >>> shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
> >>> the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
> >>> April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
> >>> domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
> >>> boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
> >>> American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
> >>> that rely on lumber products."
> >>
> >> I just got an industry newsletter today indicating that wholesale
> >> inventories are growing.
> >
> > I've read everything you've said (above and below) and it is noteworthy..
> >
> > However, that "inventory" statement doesn't mean very much without
> > some numbers behind it.
> >
> > Let's say I'm a wholesaler.
> >
> > Let's say my inventory historically averaged 4000 sheets of OSB per
> > month for the 5 years prior to the pandemic. That average always
> > kept pace with my demand (orders from builders). Then over the
> > past year, it sold down to averaging 2000 sheets per month due to
> > the inability to purchase as much as I sold.
> >
> > Now, over the past 2 months, I've been able to get a few more sheets,
> > so now I'm averaging 2500 sheets in inventory per month.
> >
> > Relatively speaking, it's true that my "inventories are growing", but
> > only when compared to the trailing 12 months. They are still down
> > compared to historic norms and I still cannot keep up with my demand.
> >
> > I'm not saying that the shortage is or isn't over nor am I disputing the
> > fact that "inventories are growing". All I'm saying is that without seeing
> > the numbers behind that statement I have no way of knowing if it's
> > equivalent to "The problem has been eliminated" or "Things are getting
> > better, but we are not out of the woods yet."
> So this is not complicated..... Normally a supplier keeps "x" days of
> supply on hand. This practice is to insure coverage in the event of a
> shortage of availability. That has always happened and is not unique to
> the times we are in. Computers sure mad this easier to calculate 40+
> years ago in the automotive industry.
>
> Anyway. Last year suppliers were running out completely. That was the
> issue with the builders paying top dollar for the materials that they
> were buying. And because suppliers had "X" days of supply this is why
> the shortage did not show up until about mid year.
>
> But now, in this general region of Texas there is no shortage of
> supplies, it's just that the consumer and contractor costs have not yet
> gone back to what they should. The only thing that will encourage
> prices to go back down is for consumers to stop paying these inflated
> prices and or more suppliers to come back on line to compete, some went
> out of business.
> Remember, competition keeps prices in check for the consumer.
>
>
> You really don't need to see numbers, If a suppliers inventory is
> growing, he is selling less than he can provide, plain and simple.
> A growing inventory is typically one measured over several months, not a
> spot check of dollar value today compared to yesterday or the week before..
> I would suggest that once the supplier gets back to his normal days of
> supply he will begin to lower his prices because too much inventory is
> costly to the supplier.
> There is a delicate balance between too much money sitting on the
> shelves and not generating money because the shelf is empty.

>>>> This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
>>>> https://www.avast.com/antivirus

Thank you for bringing this to my attention! I wasn't aware that my
virus detection software started appending this message, and I apologize
for any inconvenience it may have caused others. I fully agree that
such a message just clutters up the forum, and I have taken the
necessary steps to re-configure the software. That's just the way I am.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:21:10 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/6/2021 11:50 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 07:24:53 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
>> <teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:
>>
>>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:13:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>
>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>
>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>
>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>
>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>>
>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>
>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>>> long?
>>>>>
>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>
>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>
>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>
>>> Yet somehow services are provided in both states. Obviously we're lacking
>>> some details.
>>
>> Probably not. He likely got no services from either.
>>
>
>
>LOL He and I used to discuss this. And I have to agree with him.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 15:41:36 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:

>On 5/7/2021 3:23 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>>>> long?
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>>
>>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>>
>>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>>
>>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>>>> much.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>>>
>>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>>>
>>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>>
>> Which exemption? Is that a TX thing?
>>
>
>Many towns have similar things for seniors In Florida we have Homestead
>that gives some exemption. You have to be a resident and US citizen so
>the snowbirds that have second homes here do not qualify.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 16:35:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/7/2021 2:41 PM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>> On 5/7/2021 3:23 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet>
>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet>
>>>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon
>>>>>>>>>>> <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>         I'm betting there will be a lot of people with
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> is less
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe
>>>>>>>>>>>>> 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to
>>>>>>>>>>>>> relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now.  It will be interesting to see
>>>>>>>>>>>> how many
>>>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>       I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in
>>>>>>>>>>> 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% -  18% if
>>>>>>>>>>> you were
>>>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K.  30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981  Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15
>>>>>>>>>> years. We
>>>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage
>>>>>>>>>> off Feb,
>>>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I
>>>>>>>>> think)
>>>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest.  We bought in September, with a
>>>>>>>>> 14%
>>>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage.  A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%.  We
>>>>>>>>> paid
>>>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed
>>>>>>>> at 12%
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K.  $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I wish.  The next house was in VT.  We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300.  It's now $404.  Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Farkin taxes!  You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to
>>>>>>>> pay
>>>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> We moved from VT to AL.  We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>>>> house in VT for ($300K).  Taxes, close to $4K.  It was about 1.5x the
>>>>>>> size and *far* nicer.  SWMBO loved the kitchen.  She was rather
>>>>>>> pissed
>>>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>>>> $1500.  Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously.  The RE
>>>>>>> agent
>>>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either.  It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the
>>>>>>> dozens
>>>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>>>> discount for being over 65.  In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>>>> completely after 72.  Other counties forgive it at 65.  GA is a very
>>>>>>> retiree friendly state.  Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a
>>>>>>>>>>> lot of
>>>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing
>>>>>>>>>>> prices to
>>>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were
>>>>>>>>>>> walking
>>>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes
>>>>>>>>>>> are
>>>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs.  Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs.  Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010.  It was locked in for 5
>>>>>>>> years.  We
>>>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>>>> moving in.  We would have paid it off within the next couple of
>>>>>>>> years so
>>>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us.  But we decided to go
>>>>>>>> all
>>>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale
>>>>>>>> price.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad.  The neutron bomb had
>>>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I remember you buying that house.  Have I really been around here
>>>>>>> that
>>>>>>> long?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>>>
>>>>>>    Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs
>>>>>> AR.
>>>>>>    The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40
>>>>>> times
>>>>>> smaller.  IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>>>
>>>>> $24K/yr?!!  I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>>>>> much.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying
>>>> lately.
>>>>
>>>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>>>>
>>>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>>>
>>> Which exemption?  Is that a TX thing?
>>>
>>
>> Many towns have similar things for seniors  In Florida we have Homestead
>> that gives some exemption.  You have to be a resident and US citizen so
>> the snowbirds that have second homes here do not qualify.
>
>
>We have Homestead too but it is no where near the cost reduction. BUT
>it is a discount and is not putting off paying taxes and or interest.
>
>Also in the county that I live in has an exemption for over 65 in
>addition to the Homestead exemption. This saves us an additional $1K
>annually.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 16:31:30 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/7/2021 2:23 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>>>> long?
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>>
>>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>>
>>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>>
>>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>>>> much.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>>>
>>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>>>
>>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>>
>> Which exemption? Is that a TX thing?
>>
>
>Yes I believe so, but you have to know to sign up for it. I have not
>done this for my self but my sister and BIL did many many years ago
>also. He will never move, my sister passed away 5 years ago.
>
>The property, if inherited from the estate, will have to pay those back
>taxes and interest.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 18:02:18 -0400, Bill <nonegiven@att.net> wrote:

>On 5/7/2021 3:28 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:41:36 -0400, Bill <nonegiven@att.net> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/7/2021 2:30 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>> On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:09:54 PM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
>>>>> On 5/7/2021 1:57 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On the other hand, if I don't trim, there is no danger of any mistakes
>>>>>> being made.
>>>>>>
>>>>> Don't be lazy. As far as mistakes go, the history inherent in the
>>>>> newsgroups speaks for itself. Things have often been incorrectly
>>>>> attributed to me in various newsgroups, and in the twenty-something
>>>>> years I have been using them, nothing nefarious has ever resulted from
>>>>> it. On the other hand, it bugs me when folks are too lazy to try to
>>>>> trim at all. Especially, when it results in a subsequent message which
>>>>> is nothing more than "Oh, me too".
>>>>> --
>>>>> This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
>>>>> https://www.avast.com/antivirus
>>>>
>>>> Well, we all have things that bug us in one way or another.
>>>>
>>>> As I'm sure you know, you can continue to be bugged by something pretty
>>>> minor in the grand scheme of things, and that is out of your control (except
>>>> to mention it) or you can accept what's happening - and has been happening
>>>> for the 40+ years that usenet has been around - and allow yourself room
>>>> to be bugged by something more substantial.
>>>>
>>>> Think "Serenity Prayer"
>>>
>>> No, I do not accept that I can't help change this. There was one
>>> particular "offender" whose name I won't mention except to say that it
>>> was not you (so I was surprised that you got involved at all).
>>
>> You can help change this by not posting anymore.
>>
>
>
>Ha, You recognized yourself! But, if you desire, I'll block/filter you.

Please do. You haven't had anything interesting to say for a long
time anyway. Only whining, lately.

>And if you keep it up, even if you don't.

Bye.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 18:23:21 -0400, Bill <nonegiven@att.net> wrote:

>
>>>>> This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
>>>>> https://www.avast.com/antivirus
>
>Thank you for bringing this to my attention! I wasn't aware that my
>virus detection software started appending this message, and I apologize
>for any inconvenience it may have caused others. I fully agree that
>such a message just clutters up the forum, and I have taken the
>necessary steps to re-configure the software. That's just the way I am.

Idiot. I didn't say anything about your shilling. You can't even
keep your replies straight, much less attributions.

Give it up, Bill. You're owned.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>
>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>
>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>
>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>
>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>
>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>
>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>
>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>
>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>> long?
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>
>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>
>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>> $6 hundred.
>>
>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>> much.
>>
>
>I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>
>He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>
>That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
Very few times that is a good deal.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 13:51:57 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>> On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>
>>>
>>> We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
>>> locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
>>> closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
>>> The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
>>> material shortages.

The builder cancelled all contracts to protect his ass as he had NO
IDEA what his costs would be - and at this point he still really does
not know what his costs will be next month
>>> That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
>>> when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
>>> homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.
>>>
>>> So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
>>> than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
>>> shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
>>> sell the home for $70K extra himself.
>>>
SNIPP

>A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
>increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
>the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
>likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
>should be.
The material cost increase is one heck of a lot more than 25%

On Fri, 7 May 2021 15:17:35 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
<teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:
y.
>
>We are looking at inventory growth from 2 different view points, so
>let's just move on.
>
>If you're convinced that that there is no shortage and that prices
>are only up because consumers are willing to pay whatever the
>builder asks, we can just leave it there.
>
>Good talk.
A friend had to replace a 5550 sq ft deck. Couldn't do it last
summer/fall because there was no lumber available. He priced lumber
early this spring - it was high - and he wasn't sure whether to start
the job. The supplier said he had 21 to 30 days supply in stock - get
the old deck off and get the job done while there was guaranteen
availability - he anticipates supply getting tighter as the summer
approaches. - not as bad as last year because the price has tamped
down supply.

On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>
>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>
>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>
>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>
>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>>
>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>
>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>>> long?
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>
>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>
>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>
>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>>> much.
>>>
>>
>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>>
>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>>
>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
> Very few times that is a good deal.
>

On 5/7/2021 5:17 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 5:59:50 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/7/2021 2:49 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>> On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:52:06 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>> On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>> On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>>>>>>>>>>>>> are buying or selling.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
>>>>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>>>>>>>>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>>>>>>>>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>>>>>>>>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>>>>>>>>>>>> people will pay.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
>>>>>>>>>>> supplies.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
>>>>>>>>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
>>>>>>>>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
>>>>>>>>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
>>>>>>>>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
>>>>>>>>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
>>>>>>>>>>> getting a house built.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
>>>>>>>>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
>>>>>>>>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
>>>>>>>>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
>>>>>>>>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
>>>>>>>>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
>>>>>>>>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
>>>>>>>>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
>>>>>>>>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
>>>>>>>>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
>>>>>>>>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
>>>>>>>>>> homes since October.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
>>>>>>>> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
>>>>>>>> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
>>>>>>>> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
>>>>>>>> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
>>>>>>>> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Record low inventory:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
>>>>>>>>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
>>>>>>>>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
>>>>>>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>>>>>>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
>>>>>>> when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
>>>>>>> there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
>>>>>> Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.
>>>>>
>>>>> Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
>>>>> the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
>>>>> builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
>>>>> both claim that the shortages continue.
>>>>>
>>>>> https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-market-update-may-2021
>>>>
>>>> If you don't have to lower your price..... Lumber prices are still high
>>>> but do not need to be. There is no shortage, just a killing to be made.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> "The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
>>>>> heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
>>>>> and shortages in just about every building material category have created
>>>>> an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
>>>>> pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
>>>>> than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
>>>>> is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."
>>>>
>>>> In our area and ins San Antonio Tx I cannot agree. Homes being build by
>>>> the thousands are not presold, builders are only selling spec homes
>>>> after completion now.
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/homebuilders-respond-say-lumber-producers-are-misleadingly
>>>>>
>>>>> "The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
>>>>> going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
>>>>> to Random Lengths – is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
>>>>> shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
>>>>> the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
>>>>> April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
>>>>> domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
>>>>> boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
>>>>> American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
>>>>> that rely on lumber products."
>>>>
>>>> I just got an industry newsletter today indicating that wholesale
>>>> inventories are growing.
>>>
>>> I've read everything you've said (above and below) and it is noteworthy.
>>>
>>> However, that "inventory" statement doesn't mean very much without
>>> some numbers behind it.
>>>
>>> Let's say I'm a wholesaler.
>>>
>>> Let's say my inventory historically averaged 4000 sheets of OSB per
>>> month for the 5 years prior to the pandemic. That average always
>>> kept pace with my demand (orders from builders). Then over the
>>> past year, it sold down to averaging 2000 sheets per month due to
>>> the inability to purchase as much as I sold.
>>>
>>> Now, over the past 2 months, I've been able to get a few more sheets,
>>> so now I'm averaging 2500 sheets in inventory per month.
>>>
>>> Relatively speaking, it's true that my "inventories are growing", but
>>> only when compared to the trailing 12 months. They are still down
>>> compared to historic norms and I still cannot keep up with my demand.
>>>
>>> I'm not saying that the shortage is or isn't over nor am I disputing the
>>> fact that "inventories are growing". All I'm saying is that without seeing
>>> the numbers behind that statement I have no way of knowing if it's
>>> equivalent to "The problem has been eliminated" or "Things are getting
>>> better, but we are not out of the woods yet."
>> So this is not complicated..... Normally a supplier keeps "x" days of
>> supply on hand. This practice is to insure coverage in the event of a
>> shortage of availability. That has always happened and is not unique to
>> the times we are in. Computers sure mad this easier to calculate 40+
>> years ago in the automotive industry.
>>
>> Anyway. Last year suppliers were running out completely. That was the
>> issue with the builders paying top dollar for the materials that they
>> were buying. And because suppliers had "X" days of supply this is why
>> the shortage did not show up until about mid year.
>>
>> But now, in this general region of Texas there is no shortage of
>> supplies, it's just that the consumer and contractor costs have not yet
>> gone back to what they should. The only thing that will encourage
>> prices to go back down is for consumers to stop paying these inflated
>> prices and or more suppliers to come back on line to compete, some went
>> out of business.
>> Remember, competition keeps prices in check for the consumer.
>>
>>
>> You really don't need to see numbers, If a suppliers inventory is
>> growing, he is selling less than he can provide, plain and simple.
>> A growing inventory is typically one measured over several months, not a
>> spot check of dollar value today compared to yesterday or the week before.
>> I would suggest that once the supplier gets back to his normal days of
>> supply he will begin to lower his prices because too much inventory is
>> costly to the supplier.
>> There is a delicate balance between too much money sitting on the
>> shelves and not generating money because the shelf is empty.
>
> We are looking at inventory growth from 2 different view points, so
> let's just move on.
>
> If you're convinced that that there is no shortage and that prices
> are only up because consumers are willing to pay whatever the
> builder asks, we can just leave it there.
>
> Good talk.
>
LOL Got it. My son indicated last night that is some parts of the
country that some builders have simply quit building because of lack of
supply. So it must be a regional thing, there was never a slow down of
building in this area, in face, if anything home building increased last
and this year.

On 5/7/2021 10:26 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> On Fri, 7 May 2021 13:51:57 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
>> On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>> On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
>>>> locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
>>>> closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
>>>> The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
>>>> material shortages.
>
> The builder cancelled all contracts to protect his ass as he had NO
> IDEA what his costs would be - and at this point he still really does
> not know what his costs will be next month

Well that is the excuse that he used but he was willing to sell me the
same home 3 weeks later for and additional $16K.
And the builder was Century Homes. A relative large builder that I am
certain had locked in material pricing in advance.

>>>> That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
>>>> when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
>>>> homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.
>>>>
>>>> So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
>>>> than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
>>>> shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
>>>> sell the home for $70K extra himself.
>>>>
> SNIPP
>
>
>> A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
>> increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
>> the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
>> likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
>> should be.
> The material cost increase is one heck of a lot more than 25%

Not in this circumstance. Again, as I stated above. Large builders
agree to buy "X" amount of materials from a supplier at a locked in
price. A very common practice by suppliers to guarantee inventory turn
over and to get discounts them selves from the mill.

On Saturday, May 8, 2021 at 10:29:38 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> On 5/7/2021 10:26 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> > On Fri, 7 May 2021 13:51:57 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >
> >> On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>> On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
> >>>> locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
> >>>> closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
> >>>> The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
> >>>> material shortages.
> >
> > The builder cancelled all contracts to protect his ass as he had NO
> > IDEA what his costs would be - and at this point he still really does
> > not know what his costs will be next month
> Well that is the excuse that he used but he was willing to sell me the
> same home 3 weeks later for and additional $16K.
> And the builder was Century Homes. A relative large builder that I am
> certain had locked in material pricing in advance.

Maybe he had locked in material pricing in advance, just like you
locked in price on a new built in adavnce.

See below...

> >>>> That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
> >>>> when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
> >>>> homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.
> >>>>
> >>>> So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
> >>>> than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
> >>>> shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
> >>>> sell the home for $70K extra himself.
> >>>>
> > SNIPP
> >
> >
> >> A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
> >> increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
> >> the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
> >> likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
> >> should be.
> > The material cost increase is one heck of a lot more than 25%
> Not in this circumstance. Again, as I stated above. Large builders
> agree to buy "X" amount of materials from a supplier at a locked in
> price. A very common practice by suppliers to guarantee inventory turn
> over and to get discounts them selves from the mill.

I know I said that I was moving on, but sometimes I just can't help
myself. ;-)

Your builder gave you a price and then cancelled, claiming
material shortages. Whether you believe that excuse or not,
the bottom line was that your contract was cancelled.

Would you be willing to the entertain the possibility that as
you work your way up the supply chain the same thing was
going on?

Builder/Buyer contracts were cancelled. That's a fact you
can't dispute because it happened to you.

Perhaps Mill/Builder contracts were also cancelled. You are
certain that Century Homes locked in a price in advance but
do you know - for certain - that that contract was honored?
Do you know - for certain - that Century Homes was actually
able to obtain the material at the locked in price?

Perhaps Logger/Mill contacts were cancelled. The Mill could
be telling the Builder the same thing that the Builder told the
Buyer (you): "Sorry, the loggers have raised our prices and we
can't honor your contract because we just can't supply the
material at that price and stay in business."

Perhaps the Logger is telling the Mill "Sorry we can't supply
the logs at that price and stay in business. Sue me if you want,
one way or the other I'm going to lose money so I'll take my
chances in court."

(Feel free to shorten the supply chain and assume that the
Logger and Mill s the same company. That won't really change
anything.)

On Fri, 07 May 2021 23:13:59 -0400, Clare Snyder <clare@snyder.on.ca>
wrote:

>On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
>>On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>
>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>
>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>
>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>
>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>>
>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>
>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>>> long?
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>
>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>
>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>
>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>>> much.
>>>
>>
>>I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>>
>>He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>>
>>That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"

On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>>>> long?
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>>
>>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>>
>>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>>
>>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>>>> much.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>>>
>>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>>>
>>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
>> Very few times that is a good deal.
>>
>
>
>IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
>Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
>pay medical bills.

Spalted Walt wrote:

> DerbyDad03 <teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:
>
>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>
>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>>
>> I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
>> when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
>> there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
>>
>> I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
>> your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
>> no shortage?
>>
>> e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lumber-shortage-2021-7-reasons-wood-prices-are-soaring/
>>
>> In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
>> increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
>> $16K to $24K on average.
>
> +1
>
> Published: April 26, 2021
> <https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/26/lumber-prices-drive-up-new-home-prices/>
>
> "HOUSTON – Homebuyers, builders, and even DIYers are shocked and stuck with crazy-high lumber prices. The
> price of lumber has increased about 180% since last year."
> [...]
> "Hollins says most new home prices are going up by $30,000 to $40,000 to help builders cover the cost of
> lumber. There are several reasons for the increase."

- May 7, 2021 -
3:30 - "Since last year the price of dimensional lumber has gone up by
almost 300%." <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so3AAyogiVE&t=158s>