On 5/8/2021 12:53 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
> On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
>> On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>>>>> long?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>>>
>>>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>>>>> much.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>>>>
>>>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>>>>
>>>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>>> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
>>> Very few times that is a good deal.
>>>
>>
>>
>> IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
>> Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
>> pay medical bills.
>
> Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
> my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.
>

On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:29:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/7/2021 10:26 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> On Fri, 7 May 2021 13:51:57 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>> On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
>>>>> locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
>>>>> closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
>>>>> The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
>>>>> material shortages.
>>
>> The builder cancelled all contracts to protect his ass as he had NO
>> IDEA what his costs would be - and at this point he still really does
>> not know what his costs will be next month
>
>
>Well that is the excuse that he used but he was willing to sell me the
>same home 3 weeks later for and additional $16K.
>And the builder was Century Homes. A relative large builder that I am
>certain had locked in material pricing in advance.
>
>
>
>
>>>>> That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
>>>>> when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
>>>>> homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.
>>>>>
>>>>> So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
>>>>> than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
>>>>> shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
>>>>> sell the home for $70K extra himself.
>>>>>
>> SNIPP
>>
>>
>>> A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
>>> increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
>>> the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
>>> likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
>>> should be.
>> The material cost increase is one heck of a lot more than 25%
>
>Not in this circumstance. Again, as I stated above. Large builders
>agree to buy "X" amount of materials from a supplier at a locked in
>price. A very common practice by suppliers to guarantee inventory turn
>over and to get discounts them selves from the mill.
"locking in" price doesn't guarantee supply and VERY FEW were able
to lock in enough to build like you claim your builder was building.

On 5/7/2021 3:10 PM, Leon wrote:

> Sooo Billlll.  Did you have anything to add to the actual discussion or
> did you just want to add noise.

When I was a little boy, my dad told me it was okay to use the tools,
but to put them away when I was done with them. I think that it is
evident who got a lesson like that in simple courtesy from the way that
they post. Anyhow, that's the part of the story that this thread
rekindled in my mind. Carry on...

Bill (just 2 "els")

On Saturday, May 8, 2021 at 12:53:42 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
> >On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>
> >>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
> >>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
> >>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
> >>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
> >>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
> >>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
> >>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
> >>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
> >>>>>>>>> 1997.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
> >>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
> >>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
> >>>>>>>> $60K.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
> >>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
> >>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
> >>>>>>> the taxes on it.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
> >>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
> >>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
> >>>>>> when we moved here.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
> >>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
> >>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
> >>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
> >>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
> >>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
> >>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
> >>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
> >>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
> >>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
> >>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
> >>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
> >>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
> >>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
> >>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
> >>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
> >>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
> >>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
> >>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
> >>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
> >>>>>> already been dropped by then.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
> >>>>>> long?
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
> >>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
> >>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
> >>>>> $6 hundred.
> >>>>
> >>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
> >>>> much.
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
> >>>
> >>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
> >>>
> >>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
> >> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
> >> Very few times that is a good deal.
> >>
> >
> >
> >IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
> >Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
> >pay medical bills.
> Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
> my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.

On 5/9/2021 2:05 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> When the market is doing well, withdraw the required money from your
> stable buckets and re-fill them from the equity side. When the market is
> doing poorly, withdraw the money from the stable side and leave the
> equities alone. When the market rebounds (it*always* does) refill your
> buckets to get back up to six years.

Huh?

We're withdrawing from the "stable" buckets either way...

In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable bucket"
that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
losing ground in purchasing power besides.

--

On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 4:43:18 PM UTC-4, dpb wrote:
> On 5/9/2021 2:05 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> > When the market is doing well, withdraw the required money from your
> > stable buckets and re-fill them from the equity side. When the market is
> > doing poorly, withdraw the money from the stable side and leave the
> > equities alone. When the market rebounds (it*always* does) refill your
> > buckets to get back up to six years.
> Huh?
>
> We're withdrawing from the "stable" buckets either way...

Yes, that's because many people simply set up a monthly "paycheck"
from the same fund every month. Then every few months or maybe
annually they refill from the equities - assuming that they are up. If
not, then wait. We're talking about not selling equities for income in
times like early 2020 or during the 2007 - 2008 reversal when they
tanked. It's a process. Of course, if you need a big chunk and equities
are up, there nothing saying you can't sell and withdraw directly from
the equities. I'm talking about long term portfolio management.

>
> In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable bucket"
> that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
> losing ground in purchasing power besides.
>

That is not true. There are indeed bond funds that are still making
more than inflation. If you look hard enough or have a financial
advisor that knows where to look, there is still money that can be
made in bonds. Managed products, not index funds.

Are you suggesting that you should have no "stable assets" in your
portfolio and rely solely on the equity market for all withdrawals?

On Sun, 9 May 2021 00:30:57 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:

>On 5/8/2021 12:53 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>>>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>>>>>> long?
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>>>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>>>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>>>>>> $6 hundred.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>>>>>> much.
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>>>>>
>>>>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>>>>>
>>>>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>>>> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
>>>> Very few times that is a good deal.
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
>>> Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
>>> pay medical bills.
>>
>> Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
>> my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.
>>
>
>Easy to plan, just put the information into a spreadsheet.
>Question 1. When are you going to die?

On Sun, 9 May 2021 12:05:07 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
<teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:

>On Saturday, May 8, 2021 at 12:53:42 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>> >On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >>
>> >>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >>>>
>> >>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>> >>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>> >>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>> >>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>> >>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>> >>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>> >>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>> >>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>> >>>>>>>>> 1997.
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>> >>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>> >>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>> >>>>>>>> $60K.
>> >>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>> >>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>> >>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>> >>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>> >>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>> >>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>> >>>>>>>
>> >>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>> >>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>> >>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>> >>>>>> when we moved here.
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>> >>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>> >>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>> >>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>> >>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>> >>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>> >>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>> >>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>> >>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>> >>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>> >>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>> >>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>> >>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>> >>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>> >>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>> >>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>> >>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>> >>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>> >>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>> >>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>> >>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>> >>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>> >>>>>> long?
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>> >>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>> >>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>> >>>>> $6 hundred.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>> >>>> much.
>> >>>>
>> >>>
>> >>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>> >>>
>> >>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>> >>>
>> >>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>> >> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
>> >> Very few times that is a good deal.
>> >>
>> >
>> >
>> >IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
>> >Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
>> >pay medical bills.
>> Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
>> my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.
>
>One planning method that many retirees have employed goes like this:
>
>Plan for age 100. More and more of us are going to make it that far.
>Adjust as desired for your own specific situation. It's your plan.
>
>When looking at your retirement portfolio, forget about a 60-40 split or
>the old school "Put your age in bonds". Instead, use your own actual
>income and expenses as shown below.

On Sun, 9 May 2021 15:43:12 -0500, dpb <none@none.net> wrote:

>On 5/9/2021 2:05 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> When the market is doing well, withdraw the required money from your
>> stable buckets and re-fill them from the equity side. When the market is
>> doing poorly, withdraw the money from the stable side and leave the
>> equities alone. When the market rebounds (it*always* does) refill your
>> buckets to get back up to six years.
>
>Huh?
>
>We're withdrawing from the "stable" buckets either way...
>
>In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable bucket"
>that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
>losing ground in purchasing power besides.

Draw down from the inflated buckets? If they're at, or near, the top
now, they're likely to be at the bottom tomorrow. Getting the
investments that are out-of-phase is the trick.

On Sun, 9 May 2021 15:04:40 -0400, Bill <nonegiven@att.net> wrote:

>On 5/7/2021 3:10 PM, Leon wrote:
>
>> Sooo Billlll.  Did you have anything to add to the actual discussion or
>> did you just want to add noise.
>
>When I was a little boy, my dad told me it was okay to use the tools,
>but to put them away when I was done with them. I think that it is
>evident who got a lesson like that in simple courtesy from the way that
>they post. Anyhow, that's the part of the story that this thread
>rekindled in my mind. Carry on...

Evidently he didn't teach you _how_ to put them away.

>Bill (just 2 "els")

OK, ll

On 5/9/2021 5:02 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 4:43:18 PM UTC-4, dpb wrote:
>> On 5/9/2021 2:05 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>> When the market is doing well, withdraw the required money from your
>>> stable buckets and re-fill them from the equity side. When the market is
>>> doing poorly, withdraw the money from the stable side and leave the
>>> equities alone. When the market rebounds (it*always* does) refill your
>>> buckets to get back up to six years.
>> Huh?
>>
>> We're withdrawing from the "stable" buckets either way...
>
> Yes, that's because many people simply set up a monthly "paycheck"
> from the same fund every month. Then every few months or maybe
> annually they refill from the equities - assuming that they are up. If
> not, then wait. We're talking about not selling equities for income in
> times like early 2020 or during the 2007 - 2008 reversal when they
> tanked. It's a process. Of course, if you need a big chunk and equities
> are up, there nothing saying you can't sell and withdraw directly from
> the equities. I'm talking about long term portfolio management.
>
>>
>> In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable bucket"
>> that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
>> losing ground in purchasing power besides.
>>
>
> That is not true. There are indeed bond funds that are still making
> more than inflation. If you look hard enough or have a financial
> advisor that knows where to look, there is still money that can be
> made in bonds. Managed products, not index funds.
>
> Are you suggesting that you should have no "stable assets" in your
> portfolio and rely solely on the equity market for all withdrawals?

My "stable assets" substitute for bonds in the current market climate is
a selection of dividend-paying stocks. I don't care what the market
price does (within some reason, of course), but their return beats
virtually anything now other than junk bonds.

The RMD is more than what additional income I need annually by quite a
bit; I try to time market retractions specifically to get more shares
out at a given required $$ amount.

--

On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 6:40:00 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> On Sun, 9 May 2021 12:05:07 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
> <teama...@eznet.net> wrote:
>
> >On Saturday, May 8, 2021 at 12:53:42 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>
> >> >On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >> >> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> >>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> >>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> >>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >> >>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
> >> >>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
> >> >>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
> >> >>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
> >> >>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
> >> >>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
> >> >>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
> >> >>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
> >> >>>>>>>>> 1997.
> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
> >> >>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
> >> >>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
> >> >>>>>>>> $60K.
> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
> >> >>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
> >> >>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
> >> >>>>>>> the taxes on it.
> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
> >> >>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
> >> >>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
> >> >>>>>> when we moved here.
> >> >>>>>>
> >> >>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
> >> >>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
> >> >>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
> >> >>>>>>
> >> >>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
> >> >>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
> >> >>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
> >> >>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
> >> >>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
> >> >>>>>>
> >> >>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
> >> >>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
> >> >>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
> >> >>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
> >> >>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
> >> >>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
> >> >>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
> >> >>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
> >> >>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
> >> >>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
> >> >>>>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
> >> >>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
> >> >>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
> >> >>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
> >> >>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
> >> >>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
> >> >>>>>>
> >> >>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
> >> >>>>>> already been dropped by then.
> >> >>>>>>
> >> >>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
> >> >>>>>> long?
> >> >>>>>>
> >> >>>>>
> >> >>>>>
> >> >>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
> >> >>>>>
> >> >>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
> >> >>>>>
> >> >>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
> >> >>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
> >> >>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
> >> >>>>> $6 hundred.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
> >> >>>> much.
> >> >>>>
> >> >>>
> >> >>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
> >> >>>
> >> >>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
> >> >>>
> >> >>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
> >> >> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
> >> >> Very few times that is a good deal.
> >> >>
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
> >> >Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
> >> >pay medical bills.
> >> Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
> >> my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.
> >
> >One planning method that many retirees have employed goes like this:
> >
> >Plan for age 100. More and more of us are going to make it that far.
> >Adjust as desired for your own specific situation. It's your plan.
> >
> >When looking at your retirement portfolio, forget about a 60-40 split or
> >the old school "Put your age in bonds". Instead, use your own actual
> >income and expenses as shown below.
> I'm not so enamored with bonds anymore. Too many games being played
> and they seem to be in-phase with stocks now. Makes no sense (in more
> than one sense of the word).
> >Estimate your pre-tax retirement expenses vs. your pre-tax retirement
> >income. Based on those numbers, determine the annual pre-tax drawdown
> >from your retirement funds. (IRA's, 401(k), brokerage accounts, etc.)
> I'm not sure I follow that. I get the pre-tax part. I'm looking more
> at my post-retirement income vs. pre-retirement income. I'll have (a
> bit) fewer expenses too.

On Sun, 9 May 2021 17:30:21 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
<teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:

>On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 6:40:00 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Sun, 9 May 2021 12:05:07 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
>> <teama...@eznet.net> wrote:
>>
>> >On Saturday, May 8, 2021 at 12:53:42 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >> On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> >On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >> >> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >>
>> >> >>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >> >>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >>>>
>> >> >>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >> >>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >> >>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >> >>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>> >> >>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>> >> >>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>> >> >>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>> >> >>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>> >> >>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>> >> >>>>>>>>> 1997.
>> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>> >> >>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>> >> >>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>> >> >>>>>>>> $60K.
>> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>> >> >>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>> >> >>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>> >> >>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>> >> >>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>> >> >>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>> >> >>>>>> when we moved here.
>> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>> >> >>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>> >> >>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>> >> >>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>> >> >>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>> >> >>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>> >> >>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>> >> >>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>> >> >>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>> >> >>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>> >> >>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>> >> >>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>> >> >>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>> >> >>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>> >> >>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>> >> >>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>> >> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>> >> >>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>> >> >>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>> >> >>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>> >> >>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>> >> >>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>> >> >>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>> >> >>>>>> long?
>> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >>>>>
>> >> >>>>>
>> >> >>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>> >> >>>>>
>> >> >>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>> >> >>>>>
>> >> >>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>> >> >>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>> >> >>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>> >> >>>>> $6 hundred.
>> >> >>>>
>> >> >>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>> >> >>>> much.
>> >> >>>>
>> >> >>>
>> >> >>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>> >> >>>
>> >> >>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>> >> >>>
>> >> >>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>> >> >> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
>> >> >> Very few times that is a good deal.
>> >> >>
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
>> >> >Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
>> >> >pay medical bills.
>> >> Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
>> >> my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.
>> >
>> >One planning method that many retirees have employed goes like this:
>> >
>> >Plan for age 100. More and more of us are going to make it that far.
>> >Adjust as desired for your own specific situation. It's your plan.
>> >
>> >When looking at your retirement portfolio, forget about a 60-40 split or
>> >the old school "Put your age in bonds". Instead, use your own actual
>> >income and expenses as shown below.
>> I'm not so enamored with bonds anymore. Too many games being played
>> and they seem to be in-phase with stocks now. Makes no sense (in more
>> than one sense of the word).
>> >Estimate your pre-tax retirement expenses vs. your pre-tax retirement
>> >income. Based on those numbers, determine the annual pre-tax drawdown
>> >from your retirement funds. (IRA's, 401(k), brokerage accounts, etc.)
>> I'm not sure I follow that. I get the pre-tax part. I'm looking more
>> at my post-retirement income vs. pre-retirement income. I'll have (a
>> bit) fewer expenses too.
>
>I think you figured that out further down...
>
>>
>> You're above formula sounds like the draw down depends on expenses, no
>> matter what. It seems that one has to figure on how long one is going
>> to live and live within that.
>
>>
>> The 4% rule sounds good but the brokerage advisor (when I rolled over
>> one 401K) said that was high, now. Well, interest is 0+delta so,
>> yeah, 4% is high. I have to contact him again. I may have him take
>> care of my account. The cost really isn't bad. .5%, IIRC (Fidelity).
>
>It's not the cost, it's what you get for your money. You wouldn't hire a
>kitchen contractor based solely on price would you?

On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> On Sun, 9 May 2021 17:30:21 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
> <teama...@eznet.net> wrote:
>
> >On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 6:40:00 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> On Sun, 9 May 2021 12:05:07 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
> >> <teama...@eznet.net> wrote:
> >>
> >> >On Saturday, May 8, 2021 at 12:53:42 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> >> On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> >On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >> >> >> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> >> >>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >> >>>>
> >> >> >>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
> >> >> >>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
> >> >> >>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
> >> >> >>>>>>>>> 1997.
> >> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
> >> >> >>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
> >> >> >>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
> >> >> >>>>>>>> $60K.
> >> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
> >> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
> >> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
> >> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
> >> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
> >> >> >>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
> >> >> >>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
> >> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
> >> >> >>>>>>> the taxes on it.
> >> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
> >> >> >>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
> >> >> >>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
> >> >> >>>>>> when we moved here.
> >> >> >>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
> >> >> >>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
> >> >> >>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
> >> >> >>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
> >> >> >>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
> >> >> >>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
> >> >> >>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
> >> >> >>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
> >> >> >>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
> >> >> >>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
> >> >> >>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
> >> >> >>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
> >> >> >>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
> >> >> >>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
> >> >> >>>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
> >> >> >>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
> >> >> >>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
> >> >> >>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
> >> >> >>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
> >> >> >>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
> >> >> >>>>>> already been dropped by then.
> >> >> >>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
> >> >> >>>>>> long?
> >> >> >>>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>
> >> >> >>>>>
> >> >> >>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
> >> >> >>>>>
> >> >> >>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
> >> >> >>>>>
> >> >> >>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
> >> >> >>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
> >> >> >>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
> >> >> >>>>> $6 hundred.
> >> >> >>>>
> >> >> >>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
> >> >> >>>> much.
> >> >> >>>>
> >> >> >>>
> >> >> >>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
> >> >> >>>
> >> >> >>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
> >> >> >>>
> >> >> >>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
> >> >> >> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
> >> >> >> Very few times that is a good deal.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
> >> >> >Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
> >> >> >pay medical bills.
> >> >> Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
> >> >> my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.
> >> >
> >> >One planning method that many retirees have employed goes like this:
> >> >
> >> >Plan for age 100. More and more of us are going to make it that far.
> >> >Adjust as desired for your own specific situation. It's your plan.
> >> >
> >> >When looking at your retirement portfolio, forget about a 60-40 split or
> >> >the old school "Put your age in bonds". Instead, use your own actual
> >> >income and expenses as shown below.
> >> I'm not so enamored with bonds anymore. Too many games being played
> >> and they seem to be in-phase with stocks now. Makes no sense (in more
> >> than one sense of the word).
> >> >Estimate your pre-tax retirement expenses vs. your pre-tax retirement
> >> >income. Based on those numbers, determine the annual pre-tax drawdown
> >> >from your retirement funds. (IRA's, 401(k), brokerage accounts, etc.)
> >> I'm not sure I follow that. I get the pre-tax part. I'm looking more
> >> at my post-retirement income vs. pre-retirement income. I'll have (a
> >> bit) fewer expenses too.
> >
> >I think you figured that out further down...
> >
> >>
> >> You're above formula sounds like the draw down depends on expenses, no
> >> matter what. It seems that one has to figure on how long one is going
> >> to live and live within that.
> >
> >>
> >> The 4% rule sounds good but the brokerage advisor (when I rolled over
> >> one 401K) said that was high, now. Well, interest is 0+delta so,
> >> yeah, 4% is high. I have to contact him again. I may have him take
> >> care of my account. The cost really isn't bad. .5%, IIRC (Fidelity).
> >
> >It's not the cost, it's what you get for your money. You wouldn't hire a
> >kitchen contractor based solely on price would you?
> The key is being a fiduciary. Past that, it's pretty hard to tell. My
> accounts are with Fidelity, which is one of the three best (Vanguard
> and Schwab are the others).

On 5/9/2021 6:58 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
> On Sun, 9 May 2021 15:04:40 -0400, Bill <nonegiven@att.net> wrote:
>
>> On 5/7/2021 3:10 PM, Leon wrote:
>>
>>> Sooo Billlll.  Did you have anything to add to the actual discussion or
>>> did you just want to add noise.
>>
>> When I was a little boy, my dad told me it was okay to use the tools,
>> but to put them away when I was done with them. I think that it is
>> evident who got a lesson like that in simple courtesy from the way that
>> they post. Anyhow, that's the part of the story that this thread
>> rekindled in my mind. Carry on...
>
> Evidently he didn't teach you _how_ to put them away.
>
>> Bill (just 2 "els")
>
> OK, ll
>

I filtered/blocked you yesterday, but I thought I would see if you
replied. Sort of sadly, at the very least, I learned I did the right
thing. I guess there's no reason for drama; consider yourself blocked.

On 5/8/2021 11:14 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:29:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
>> On 5/7/2021 10:26 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>> On Fri, 7 May 2021 13:51:57 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>> On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
>>>>>> locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
>>>>>> closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
>>>>>> The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
>>>>>> material shortages.
>>>
>>> The builder cancelled all contracts to protect his ass as he had NO
>>> IDEA what his costs would be - and at this point he still really does
>>> not know what his costs will be next month
>>
>>
>> Well that is the excuse that he used but he was willing to sell me the
>> same home 3 weeks later for and additional $16K.
>> And the builder was Century Homes. A relative large builder that I am
>> certain had locked in material pricing in advance.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>>>>> That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
>>>>>> when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
>>>>>> homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
>>>>>> than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
>>>>>> shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
>>>>>> sell the home for $70K extra himself.
>>>>>>
>>> SNIPP
>>>
>>>
>>>> A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
>>>> increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
>>>> the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
>>>> likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
>>>> should be.
>>> The material cost increase is one heck of a lot more than 25%
>>
>> Not in this circumstance. Again, as I stated above. Large builders
>> agree to buy "X" amount of materials from a supplier at a locked in
>> price. A very common practice by suppliers to guarantee inventory turn
>> over and to get discounts them selves from the mill.
> "locking in" price doesn't guarantee supply and VERY FEW were able
> to lock in enough to build like you claim your builder was building.
>

Well very few must be the condition of east Texas and central Texas.
There are no shortages of supplies or new home going up. Literally
multiple hundreds of spec homes are going up.

DerbyDad03 <teamarrows@eznet.net> writes:
>On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 4:43:18 PM UTC-4, dpb wrote:

>> In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable bucket"
>> that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
>> losing ground in purchasing power besides.
>>
>
>That is not true. There are indeed bond funds that are still making
>more than inflation. If you look hard enough or have a financial
>advisor that knows where to look, there is still money that can be
>made in bonds. Managed products, not index funds.

Even Municipal Bonds. My collection thereof returned slightly over 4%
last year. Tax free.

If you're not confortable buying them individually, use a muni bond
fund (e.g. ABTHX).

On Monday, May 10, 2021 at 11:35:25 AM UTC-4, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> DerbyDad03 <teama...@eznet.net> writes:
> >On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 4:43:18 PM UTC-4, dpb wrote:
>
> >> In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable bucket"
> >> that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
> >> losing ground in purchasing power besides.
> >>
> >
> >That is not true. There are indeed bond funds that are still making
> >more than inflation. If you look hard enough or have a financial
> >advisor that knows where to look, there is still money that can be
> >made in bonds. Managed products, not index funds.
> Even Municipal Bonds. My collection thereof returned slightly over 4%
> last year. Tax free.
>
> If you're not confortable buying them individually, use a muni bond
> fund (e.g. ABTHX).

I'm not a fan of individual bonds. I prefer a managed product where the
manager can get the best deals and I can buy and sell in whatever dollar
amount I want at any time.

Since bond funds come in all sorts of flavors (munis, HY, international,
IG, govt, etc.) I can be just as diversified on the bond side as I can on
the equity side and freely readjust as I see fit.

On 5/10/2021 10:35 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> DerbyDad03 <teamarrows@eznet.net> writes:
>> On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 4:43:18 PM UTC-4, dpb wrote:
>
>>> In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable bucket"
>>> that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
>>> losing ground in purchasing power besides.
>>>
>>
>> That is not true. There are indeed bond funds that are still making
>> more than inflation. If you look hard enough or have a financial
>> advisor that knows where to look, there is still money that can be
>> made in bonds. Managed products, not index funds.
>
> Even Municipal Bonds. My collection thereof returned slightly over 4%
> last year. Tax free.

All of my bond funds are currently averaging 3.5%, not great but better
than any bank.

On 5/10/2021 1:32 PM, Leon wrote:
> On 5/10/2021 10:35 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> DerbyDad03 <teamarrows@eznet.net> writes:
>>> On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 4:43:18 PM UTC-4, dpb wrote:
>>
>>>> In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable bucket"
>>>> that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
>>>> losing ground in purchasing power besides.
>>>>
>>>
>>> That is not true. There are indeed bond funds that are still making
>>> more than inflation. If you look hard enough or have a financial
>>> advisor that knows where to look, there is still money that can be
>>> made in bonds. Managed products, not index funds.
>>
>> Even Municipal Bonds.   My collection thereof returned slightly over 4%
>> last year.  Tax free.
>
> All of my bond funds are currently averaging 3.5%, not great but better
> than any bank.

My dividend-paying stocks portfolio is 5.65% average dividend plus the
composite annualized capital gain since purchase is 7.76% or 13.4% total.

I shouldn't leave impression I have zero conventional bonds/bond
funds/other fixed income assets, but am still 80:20 equities:fixed at
the moment. This drives the brokerage-programmed "advice to the
lovelorn" algorithm bonkers in nagging me to rebalance to their
age-suggested guidelines for the annual mandated fiduciary
responsibility reports. :)

I could/would change overnight if think/thought it wise/time to
rearrange, but have been in this position for about 15 years now. Rode
out the end 2019 correction but figured were in trouble in late
2007/early 2008 and parked about 65% in CDs/MM funds through the worst
of 2008. Moved back into market over about 18 months beginning roughly
mid 2009. I'll gladly trade some of the total growth from trying to
time absolute bottoms in trade to avoid the entire meltdown.

It's the inverse ratio rule; a retraction of 1/3rd requires a subsequent
gain of 50% to recover. (1-1/3) --> 2/3 * 3/2 = 1)

--

On 5/10/2021 3:07 PM, dpb wrote:
> On 5/10/2021 1:32 PM, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/10/2021 10:35 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>> DerbyDad03 <teamarrows@eznet.net> writes:
>>>> On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 4:43:18 PM UTC-4, dpb wrote:
>>>
>>>>> In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable
>>>>> bucket"
>>>>> that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
>>>>> losing ground in purchasing power besides.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> That is not true. There are indeed bond funds that are still making
>>>> more than inflation. If you look hard enough or have a financial
>>>> advisor that knows where to look, there is still money that can be
>>>> made in bonds. Managed products, not index funds.
>>>
>>> Even Municipal Bonds.   My collection thereof returned slightly over 4%
>>> last year.  Tax free.
>>
>> All of my bond funds are currently averaging 3.5%, not great but
>> better than any bank.
>
> My dividend-paying stocks portfolio is 5.65% average dividend plus the
> composite annualized capital gain since purchase is 7.76% or 13.4% total.
....

"...dividend-paying stocks portfolio is 5.65% average dividend..."

Rate based on acquisition price, not appreciated.

--

On Sun, 9 May 2021 19:20:16 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
<teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:

>On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Sun, 9 May 2021 17:30:21 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
>> <teama...@eznet.net> wrote:
>>
>> >On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 6:40:00 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >> On Sun, 9 May 2021 12:05:07 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
>> >> <teama...@eznet.net> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> >On Saturday, May 8, 2021 at 12:53:42 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >> >> On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> >On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >> >> >> On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >>> On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >> >> >>>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>
>> >> >> >>>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>> 1997.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> $60K.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>> >> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>> >> >> >>>>>>> the taxes on it.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>> >> >> >>>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>> >> >> >>>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>> >> >> >>>>>> when we moved here.
>> >> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>> >> >> >>>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>> >> >> >>>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>> >> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>> >> >> >>>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>> >> >> >>>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>> >> >> >>>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>> >> >> >>>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>> >> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>> >> >> >>>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>> >> >> >>>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>> >> >> >>>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>> >> >> >>>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>> >> >> >>>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>> >> >> >>>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>> >> >> >>>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>> >> >> >>>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>> >> >> >>>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>> >> >> >>>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>> >> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>> >> >> >>>>>> already been dropped by then.
>> >> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>> >> >> >>>>>> long?
>> >> >> >>>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>> >> >> >>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>> >> >> >>>>>
>> >> >> >>>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>> >> >> >>>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>> >> >> >>>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>> >> >> >>>>> $6 hundred.
>> >> >> >>>>
>> >> >> >>>> $24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
>> >> >> >>>> much.
>> >> >> >>>>
>> >> >> >>>
>> >> >> >>> I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.
>> >> >> >>>
>> >> >> >>> He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.
>> >> >> >>>
>> >> >> >>> That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
>> >> >> >> In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
>> >> >> >> Very few times that is a good deal.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
>> >> >> >Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
>> >> >> >pay medical bills.
>> >> >> Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
>> >> >> my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.
>> >> >
>> >> >One planning method that many retirees have employed goes like this:
>> >> >
>> >> >Plan for age 100. More and more of us are going to make it that far.
>> >> >Adjust as desired for your own specific situation. It's your plan.
>> >> >
>> >> >When looking at your retirement portfolio, forget about a 60-40 split or
>> >> >the old school "Put your age in bonds". Instead, use your own actual
>> >> >income and expenses as shown below.
>> >> I'm not so enamored with bonds anymore. Too many games being played
>> >> and they seem to be in-phase with stocks now. Makes no sense (in more
>> >> than one sense of the word).
>> >> >Estimate your pre-tax retirement expenses vs. your pre-tax retirement
>> >> >income. Based on those numbers, determine the annual pre-tax drawdown
>> >> >from your retirement funds. (IRA's, 401(k), brokerage accounts, etc.)
>> >> I'm not sure I follow that. I get the pre-tax part. I'm looking more
>> >> at my post-retirement income vs. pre-retirement income. I'll have (a
>> >> bit) fewer expenses too.
>> >
>> >I think you figured that out further down...
>> >
>> >>
>> >> You're above formula sounds like the draw down depends on expenses, no
>> >> matter what. It seems that one has to figure on how long one is going
>> >> to live and live within that.
>> >
>> >>
>> >> The 4% rule sounds good but the brokerage advisor (when I rolled over
>> >> one 401K) said that was high, now. Well, interest is 0+delta so,
>> >> yeah, 4% is high. I have to contact him again. I may have him take
>> >> care of my account. The cost really isn't bad. .5%, IIRC (Fidelity).
>> >
>> >It's not the cost, it's what you get for your money. You wouldn't hire a
>> >kitchen contractor based solely on price would you?
>> The key is being a fiduciary. Past that, it's pretty hard to tell. My
>> accounts are with Fidelity, which is one of the three best (Vanguard
>> and Schwab are the others).
>
>Best at what?

On Mon, 10 May 2021 01:10:57 -0400, Bill <nonegiven@att.net> wrote:

>On 5/9/2021 6:58 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Sun, 9 May 2021 15:04:40 -0400, Bill <nonegiven@att.net> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/7/2021 3:10 PM, Leon wrote:
>>>
>>>> Sooo Billlll.  Did you have anything to add to the actual discussion or
>>>> did you just want to add noise.
>>>
>>> When I was a little boy, my dad told me it was okay to use the tools,
>>> but to put them away when I was done with them. I think that it is
>>> evident who got a lesson like that in simple courtesy from the way that
>>> they post. Anyhow, that's the part of the story that this thread
>>> rekindled in my mind. Carry on...
>>
>> Evidently he didn't teach you _how_ to put them away.
>>
>>> Bill (just 2 "els")
>>
>> OK, ll
>>
>
>I filtered/blocked you yesterday, but I thought I would see if you
>replied. Sort of sadly, at the very least, I learned I did the right
>thing. I guess there's no reason for drama; consider yourself blocked.

You can't even figure out how to use a kill file. You are one dumb
bastard. ...and a liar.

On 5/10/2021 3:07 PM, dpb wrote:
> On 5/10/2021 1:32 PM, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/10/2021 10:35 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>> DerbyDad03 <teamarrows@eznet.net> writes:
>>>> On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 4:43:18 PM UTC-4, dpb wrote:
>>>
>>>>> In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable
>>>>> bucket"
>>>>> that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
>>>>> losing ground in purchasing power besides.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> That is not true. There are indeed bond funds that are still making
>>>> more than inflation. If you look hard enough or have a financial
>>>> advisor that knows where to look, there is still money that can be
>>>> made in bonds. Managed products, not index funds.
>>>
>>> Even Municipal Bonds.   My collection thereof returned slightly over 4%
>>> last year.  Tax free.
>>
>> All of my bond funds are currently averaging 3.5%, not great but
>> better than any bank.
>
> My dividend-paying stocks portfolio is 5.65% average dividend plus the
> composite annualized capital gain since purchase is 7.76% or 13.4% total.

Well I have the mutual funds too. Just had a meeting with my money
manager last week. Since about 2008 my portfolio has tripled. That was
when I dropped my previous money manager.

I was mostly mutual funds until the crash last year. I got out before
it hit bottom and back in about 3 weeks later, lower than when I got
out. But with a more conservative approach, 50% bond funds and 50%
mutual funds.

Even with that mix I have seen about a 30% increase in value since April
last year.

>
> I shouldn't leave impression I have zero conventional bonds/bond
> funds/other fixed income assets, but am still 80:20 equities:fixed at
> the moment.  This drives the brokerage-programmed "advice to the
> lovelorn" algorithm bonkers in nagging me to rebalance to their
> age-suggested guidelines for the annual mandated fiduciary
> responsibility reports. :)
>
> I could/would change overnight if think/thought it wise/time to
> rearrange, but have been in this position for about 15 years now.  Rode
> out the end 2019 correction but figured were in trouble in late
> 2007/early 2008 and parked about 65% in CDs/MM funds through the worst
> of 2008.  Moved back into market over about 18 months beginning roughly
> mid 2009.  I'll gladly trade some of the total growth from trying to
> time absolute bottoms in trade to avoid the entire meltdown.
>
> It's the inverse ratio rule; a retraction of 1/3rd requires a subsequent
> gain of 50% to recover.  (1-1/3) --> 2/3 * 3/2 = 1)
>
> --
>
>

On Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:29:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> On 5/10/2021 3:07 PM, dpb wrote:
> > On 5/10/2021 1:32 PM, Leon wrote:
> >> On 5/10/2021 10:35 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>> DerbyDad03 <teama...@eznet.net> writes:
> >>>> On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 4:43:18 PM UTC-4, dpb wrote:
> >>>
> >>>>> In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable
> >>>>> bucket"
> >>>>> that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
> >>>>> losing ground in purchasing power besides.
> >>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> That is not true. There are indeed bond funds that are still making
> >>>> more than inflation. If you look hard enough or have a financial
> >>>> advisor that knows where to look, there is still money that can be
> >>>> made in bonds. Managed products, not index funds.
> >>>
> >>> Even Municipal Bonds. My collection thereof returned slightly over 4%
> >>> last year. Tax free.
> >>
> >> All of my bond funds are currently averaging 3.5%, not great but
> >> better than any bank.
> >
> > My dividend-paying stocks portfolio is 5.65% average dividend plus the
> > composite annualized capital gain since purchase is 7.76% or 13.4% total.
> Well I have the mutual funds too. Just had a meeting with my money
> manager last week. Since about 2008 my portfolio has tripled. That was
> when I dropped my previous money manager.
>
> I was mostly mutual funds until the crash last year. I got out before
> it hit bottom and back in about 3 weeks later, lower than when I got
> out. But with a more conservative approach, 50% bond funds and 50%
> mutual funds.
>

Bond funds are mutual funds.

I assume you mean bond mutual funds and equity mutual funds.