On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 3:51:58 PM UTC-4, Dan Marotta wrote:
> One thing I took away from the discussion was there was no mention of
> simply rolling out and landing into whatever is there. Granted Schmuel
> was very quickly in an untenable spot but, hopefully the next time
> something like this happens at a somewhat higher altitude, the "victim"
> may have the choice to land straight ahead rather than wrap it up into a
> stall/spin.
>
> Like Bob Hoover said, "Fly it as far into the crash as you can." That
> will very likely be survivable whereas a crash likely won't.
>
> Dan
> 5J
> On 6/29/22 23:51, Ramy wrote:
> > Excellent analysis and lessons by Clemens. Everyone should read it. I hope it will make its way to soaring magazines and publications.
> >
> > Ramy
> >
> > On Monday, June 27, 2022 at 5:55:06 PM UTC-7, J6 aka Airport Bum wrote:
> >> Clemen’s analysis of Shmulik’s accident:
> >>
> >> https://chessintheair.com/invisible-microburst-kills-expert-glider-pilot
> >>
> >> Also, I understand that the NTSB is releasing their preliminary accident report on June 28 around 3 pm eastern time. Here are the instructions on how to find it:
> >>
> >> The preliminary report will be available in the NTSB Aviation Accident Database. Please follow these instructions to search for the report:
> >>
> >> Visit: https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-main-public/keyword-search
> >> Click the right side of the search box to open a drop down
> >> Click “Investigations”
> >> Input the accident number CEN22FA240 into the second search window
> >> Click the “Search” button on the right or hit the “Enter” key on your keyboard
> >> Once the search concludes, the accident investigation record will include a link to a PDF copy of the Preliminary Report
> >>
> >> The final report will take up to two years to be completed and released.
> >>
> >> Jim J6
> >>
> >> On Friday, June 10, 2022 at 8:56:45 AM UTC-6, R wrote:
> >>> This is a shocker. He was highly experienced and I hope the riddle is answered so that I (we) can learn from it.
> >>> I had the privilege of joining the regulars at Rifle last June for a short visit to learn and experience mountain flying and Shumlik was the Host and a mentor.
> >>>
> >>> R

Unfortunately there usually isn't any airspeed left to stop the stall or spin. Don't mix up my words here. I meant there simply isn't any airflow over the controls to lower the nose, to put opposing rudder in, or to try to keep it right side up. It's very abrupt and powerful when you get hit. I've not had it happen in a glider. I'd recommend anyone with the access to get a simulator ride and experience windshear from the safety of a box. I'll add that when you see it happen in real life the sensory overload from it is Very good powerful and your instinct will try to kill you.

On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 3:51:58 PM UTC-4, Dan Marotta wrote:
> One thing I took away from the discussion was there was no mention of
> simply rolling out and landing into whatever is there. Granted Schmuel
> was very quickly in an untenable spot but, hopefully the next time
> something like this happens at a somewhat higher altitude, the "victim"
> may have the choice to land straight ahead rather than wrap it up into a
> stall/spin.
>
> Like Bob Hoover said, "Fly it as far into the crash as you can." That
> will very likely be survivable whereas a crash likely won't.
>
> Dan
> 5J
> On 6/29/22 23:51, Ramy wrote:
> > Excellent analysis and lessons by Clemens. Everyone should read it. I hope it will make its way to soaring magazines and publications.
> >
> > Ramy
> >
> > On Monday, June 27, 2022 at 5:55:06 PM UTC-7, J6 aka Airport Bum wrote:
> >> Clemen’s analysis of Shmulik’s accident:
> >>
> >> https://chessintheair.com/invisible-microburst-kills-expert-glider-pilot
> >>
> >> Also, I understand that the NTSB is releasing their preliminary accident report on June 28 around 3 pm eastern time. Here are the instructions on how to find it:
> >>
> >> The preliminary report will be available in the NTSB Aviation Accident Database. Please follow these instructions to search for the report:
> >>
> >> Visit: https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-main-public/keyword-search
> >> Click the right side of the search box to open a drop down
> >> Click “Investigations”
> >> Input the accident number CEN22FA240 into the second search window
> >> Click the “Search” button on the right or hit the “Enter” key on your keyboard
> >> Once the search concludes, the accident investigation record will include a link to a PDF copy of the Preliminary Report
> >>
> >> The final report will take up to two years to be completed and released.
> >>
> >> Jim J6
> >>
> >> On Friday, June 10, 2022 at 8:56:45 AM UTC-6, R wrote:
> >>> This is a shocker. He was highly experienced and I hope the riddle is answered so that I (we) can learn from it.
> >>> I had the privilege of joining the regulars at Rifle last June for a short visit to learn and experience mountain flying and Shumlik was the Host and a mentor.
> >>>
> >>> R

Unfortunately there usually isn't any airspeed left to stop the stall or spin. Don't mix up my words here. I mean there simply isn't any airflow over the controls to lower the nose even though the stick is full forward, to put opposing rudder in and stop the roll, or to try to keep it right side up. It's very abrupt and powerful when you get hit. I've not had it happen in a glider. I'd recommend anyone with the access to get a simulator ride and experience windshear from the safety of a box. I'll add that when you see it happen in real life the sensory overload from it is very powerful and your instinct will try to kill you.

On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 3:51:58 PM UTC-4, Dan Marotta wrote:
> One thing I took away from the discussion was there was no mention of
> simply rolling out and landing into whatever is there. Granted Schmuel
> was very quickly in an untenable spot but, hopefully the next time
> something like this happens at a somewhat higher altitude, the "victim"
> may have the choice to land straight ahead rather than wrap it up into a
> stall/spin.
>
> Like Bob Hoover said, "Fly it as far into the crash as you can." That
> will very likely be survivable whereas a crash likely won't.
>
> Dan
> 5J
> On 6/29/22 23:51, Ramy wrote:
> > Excellent analysis and lessons by Clemens. Everyone should read it. I hope it will make its way to soaring magazines and publications.
> >
> > Ramy
> >
> > On Monday, June 27, 2022 at 5:55:06 PM UTC-7, J6 aka Airport Bum wrote:
> >> Clemen’s analysis of Shmulik’s accident:
> >>
> >> https://chessintheair.com/invisible-microburst-kills-expert-glider-pilot
> >>
> >> Also, I understand that the NTSB is releasing their preliminary accident report on June 28 around 3 pm eastern time. Here are the instructions on how to find it:
> >>
> >> The preliminary report will be available in the NTSB Aviation Accident Database. Please follow these instructions to search for the report:
> >>
> >> Visit: https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-main-public/keyword-search
> >> Click the right side of the search box to open a drop down
> >> Click “Investigations”
> >> Input the accident number CEN22FA240 into the second search window
> >> Click the “Search” button on the right or hit the “Enter” key on your keyboard
> >> Once the search concludes, the accident investigation record will include a link to a PDF copy of the Preliminary Report
> >>
> >> The final report will take up to two years to be completed and released.
> >>
> >> Jim J6
> >>
> >> On Friday, June 10, 2022 at 8:56:45 AM UTC-6, R wrote:
> >>> This is a shocker. He was highly experienced and I hope the riddle is answered so that I (we) can learn from it.
> >>> I had the privilege of joining the regulars at Rifle last June for a short visit to learn and experience mountain flying and Shumlik was the Host and a mentor.
> >>>
> >>> R
I think that is the best assessment that I have ever heard, Hoover knew a few things.OBTP

I've experienced wind shear (or similar phenomena) both in the simulator
(King air) and in flight. Fortunately, the simulator occurrence
happened before the actual experience as I crashed the simulator on the
first go. The second attempt was successful.

In the glider it was an encounter with rotor close to a mountain slope.
The glider started a lazy roll with the nose falling but I had enough
altitude to stuff the nose down as soon as I had aerodynamic control and
to recover without more than minor seat cushion deformity.

In my initial post I acknowledged that Schmuel's experience was not
recoverable but pointed out that folks should have other tools in their
bags of tricks should they experience similar at higher altitudes, i.e.,
getting aligned with the runway may or not be possible and to accept a
crash landing under control rather than the alternative.

Dan
5J

On 6/30/22 15:08, Jason Leonard wrote:
> On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 3:51:58 PM UTC-4, Dan Marotta wrote:
>> One thing I took away from the discussion was there was no mention of
>> simply rolling out and landing into whatever is there. Granted Schmuel
>> was very quickly in an untenable spot but, hopefully the next time
>> something like this happens at a somewhat higher altitude, the "victim"
>> may have the choice to land straight ahead rather than wrap it up into a
>> stall/spin.
>>
>> Like Bob Hoover said, "Fly it as far into the crash as you can." That
>> will very likely be survivable whereas a crash likely won't.
>>
>> Dan
>> 5J
>> On 6/29/22 23:51, Ramy wrote:
>>> Excellent analysis and lessons by Clemens. Everyone should read it. I hope it will make its way to soaring magazines and publications.
>>>
>>> Ramy
>>>
>>> On Monday, June 27, 2022 at 5:55:06 PM UTC-7, J6 aka Airport Bum wrote:
>>>> Clemen’s analysis of Shmulik’s accident:
>>>>
>>>> https://chessintheair.com/invisible-microburst-kills-expert-glider-pilot
>>>>
>>>> Also, I understand that the NTSB is releasing their preliminary accident report on June 28 around 3 pm eastern time. Here are the instructions on how to find it:
>>>>
>>>> The preliminary report will be available in the NTSB Aviation Accident Database. Please follow these instructions to search for the report:
>>>>
>>>> Visit: https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-main-public/keyword-search
>>>> Click the right side of the search box to open a drop down
>>>> Click “Investigations”
>>>> Input the accident number CEN22FA240 into the second search window
>>>> Click the “Search” button on the right or hit the “Enter” key on your keyboard
>>>> Once the search concludes, the accident investigation record will include a link to a PDF copy of the Preliminary Report
>>>>
>>>> The final report will take up to two years to be completed and released.
>>>>
>>>> Jim J6
>>>>
>>>> On Friday, June 10, 2022 at 8:56:45 AM UTC-6, R wrote:
>>>>> This is a shocker. He was highly experienced and I hope the riddle is answered so that I (we) can learn from it.
>>>>> I had the privilege of joining the regulars at Rifle last June for a short visit to learn and experience mountain flying and Shumlik was the Host and a mentor.
>>>>>
>>>>> R
>
> Unfortunately there usually isn't any airspeed left to stop the stall or spin. Don't mix up my words here. I meant there simply isn't any airflow over the controls to lower the nose, to put opposing rudder in, or to try to keep it right side up. It's very abrupt and powerful when you get hit. I've not had it happen in a glider. I'd recommend anyone with the access to get a simulator ride and experience windshear from the safety of a box. I'll add that when you see it happen in real life the sensory overload from it is Very good powerful and your instinct will try to kill you.

On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 10:25:49 AM UTC-7, jbl...@gmail.com wrote:
> We have all the data we need for our glide instruments to alert us to windshear. Groundspeed reducing while airspeed increasing and a sensation of "gaining performance" (a climb to maintain speed or stick feel). Then the inevitable decrease in airspeed gain, continued decrease in groundspeed as a downward sensation occurs. We have the technology even in a simple glide computer to alert us to windshear - and I'd be happy to help develop a feature in LXNAV instruments (since I have one) to make a full volume aural alert populate as the described conditions occur. Up to this very moment - there is recovery hope. After this moment - if you don't have excess ground speed, you simply won't have enough resultant airspeed after this point of the burst.
>
> I've personally experienced these in airliners and almost every time we as a crew are surprised by the conditions that created such a downdraft. In Florida even a tiny little shower shaft is suspect. Thankfully we went around and you are only reading about it now. It didn't look powerful by any standard. It was tiny, could see through the rain shaft, and no outflow dust visible (we're in Florida after all).
>
> If you get a rush of airspeed and have to climb to maintain speed and the groundspeed decreases - one way or another that gain will be soon lost, so lower the nose and regain your groundspeed prior to the event. Our Airbus manages a minimum groundspeed on approach and will increase our approach speed all the way up to nearly flap speed limit to maintain that target groundspeed.
>
> We should do the same. If the wind looks calm: your ground speed shouldn't be lower than triangle speed. If it's 10-20kts down the runway - then your groundspeed should never be less than triangle speed IMO. I don't fly 1/2 the windspeed on top of triangle, I fly 1:1 over triangle speed for wind for this reason is because I want the same Total energy.
>
> I think I'm going to make a special page (until LXNAV can do something) that shows the groundspeed and TAS one on top of each other, just for the pattern. Not that I'll be glancing at that very much, but it'll maybe clue me in if I feel that gain of performance feeling, can glance at the ground vs TAS for a diverging split in the two.

On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 10:25:49 AM UTC-7, jbl...@gmail.com wrote:
> We have all the data we need for our glide instruments to alert us to windshear...

JBL, good ideas for sure, but there is one case that perhaps you are not considering.

If you enter under the microburst, you will not have the initial increase airspeed/decrease groundspeed that you described.
Perhaps it would be better if I said "If the microburst hits you from above".
If that is the case, no warning would be possible, other than the vario dropping away.

BTW, LX Nav already has a headwind/tailwind component as a Nav box, and it is on my landing screen, so you wouldn't need to do the math in the air.

------------------

On another note, Ramy is correct on the statistics of soaring, in that it is far more dangerous than driving. The "driving to the airport" meme really needs to die. Unfortunately, all the personal anecdotes only lead to personal biased opinions. Here is a great write-up by Clemens Ceipek: https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/ The best alternative analyses that I have come across agree with his. Like Clemens, I think risk per hour is by far the best metric. That said, most of our risk is focused on the first and last 5 minutes of each flight. It is very interesting to me that as you get very old, you are actually safer on a commercial jet than you are in your own living room. Likely because their is medical assistance close-by.

I did not know Shmulik Dimenstein, and based on what I have read here, that is a loss to me, as he was truly a great person to know. My condolences to his friends and family. In my case, I know that soaring is dangerous, but I still choose to do it, and even recently became a proud Dad as my 19-year-old daughter recently just soloed in gliders. She too is aware of the hazards.

In 100 years or less, everyone reading this will pass away as well. Most importantly, is how we choose to live in the meantime. Do what you love to do, share it with those around you, be honest to yourself and others about the risks, and do what you can to mitigate them when you can.

And one last piece of advice that I would give to any friend willing to listen: try to live your life as Shmulik did, so that you will be remembered and appreciated by those around you.

Chuck, very well said. My thoughts exactly.

Ramy

On Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 8:05:44 AM UTC-7, chuck.d...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 10:25:49 AM UTC-7, jbl...@gmail.com wrote:
> > We have all the data we need for our glide instruments to alert us to windshear...
>
> JBL, good ideas for sure, but there is one case that perhaps you are not considering.
>
> If you enter under the microburst, you will not have the initial increase airspeed/decrease groundspeed that you described.
> Perhaps it would be better if I said "If the microburst hits you from above".
> If that is the case, no warning would be possible, other than the vario dropping away.
>
> BTW, LX Nav already has a headwind/tailwind component as a Nav box, and it is on my landing screen, so you wouldn't need to do the math in the air.
>
> ------------------
>
> On another note, Ramy is correct on the statistics of soaring, in that it is far more dangerous than driving. The "driving to the airport" meme really needs to die. Unfortunately, all the personal anecdotes only lead to personal biased opinions. Here is a great write-up by Clemens Ceipek: https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/ The best alternative analyses that I have come across agree with his. Like Clemens, I think risk per hour is by far the best metric. That said, most of our risk is focused on the first and last 5 minutes of each flight. It is very interesting to me that as you get very old, you are actually safer on a commercial jet than you are in your own living room. Likely because their is medical assistance close-by.
>
> I did not know Shmulik Dimenstein, and based on what I have read here, that is a loss to me, as he was truly a great person to know. My condolences to his friends and family. In my case, I know that soaring is dangerous, but I still choose to do it, and even recently became a proud Dad as my 19-year-old daughter recently just soloed in gliders. She too is aware of the hazards.
>
> In 100 years or less, everyone reading this will pass away as well. Most importantly, is how we choose to live in the meantime. Do what you love to do, share it with those around you, be honest to yourself and others about the risks, and do what you can to mitigate them when you can.
>
> And one last piece of advice that I would give to any friend willing to listen: try to live your life as Shmulik did, so that you will be remembered and appreciated by those around you.

On Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 12:18:37 PM UTC-4, Ramy wrote:
> Chuck, very well said. My thoughts exactly.
>
> Ramy
> On Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 8:05:44 AM UTC-7, chuck.d...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 10:25:49 AM UTC-7, jbl...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > We have all the data we need for our glide instruments to alert us to windshear...
> >
> > JBL, good ideas for sure, but there is one case that perhaps you are not considering.
> >
> > If you enter under the microburst, you will not have the initial increase airspeed/decrease groundspeed that you described.
> > Perhaps it would be better if I said "If the microburst hits you from above".
> > If that is the case, no warning would be possible, other than the vario dropping away.
> >
> > BTW, LX Nav already has a headwind/tailwind component as a Nav box, and it is on my landing screen, so you wouldn't need to do the math in the air..
> >
> > ------------------
> >
> > On another note, Ramy is correct on the statistics of soaring, in that it is far more dangerous than driving. The "driving to the airport" meme really needs to die. Unfortunately, all the personal anecdotes only lead to personal biased opinions. Here is a great write-up by Clemens Ceipek: https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/ The best alternative analyses that I have come across agree with his. Like Clemens, I think risk per hour is by far the best metric. That said, most of our risk is focused on the first and last 5 minutes of each flight. It is very interesting to me that as you get very old, you are actually safer on a commercial jet than you are in your own living room. Likely because their is medical assistance close-by.
> >
> > I did not know Shmulik Dimenstein, and based on what I have read here, that is a loss to me, as he was truly a great person to know. My condolences to his friends and family. In my case, I know that soaring is dangerous, but I still choose to do it, and even recently became a proud Dad as my 19-year-old daughter recently just soloed in gliders. She too is aware of the hazards.
> >
> > In 100 years or less, everyone reading this will pass away as well. Most importantly, is how we choose to live in the meantime. Do what you love to do, share it with those around you, be honest to yourself and others about the risks, and do what you can to mitigate them when you can.
> >
> > And one last piece of advice that I would give to any friend willing to listen: try to live your life as Shmulik did, so that you will be remembered and appreciated by those around you.

"Chess in the air" is extremely interesting for glider pilots and an (ex) safety officer like myself.
However, the scenario is very important.
We can control/ choose and how and where we fly.

Local flying within airfield range
Cross country flying cultivated land
Cross country hazardous/ unlandable terrain
Competition flying
Downbursts we cannot control , merely have a probability awareness .

Pilot experience/ currency is a big factor; how about self launch vs normal?

After 60+ years and 6000 + hrs and and 25 or so contests, four near death events, two driving,
two flying, I am somewhat conservative; closest one was while instructing a checkout flight.
Turning final from left base, the customary glance to the right showed the towplane on RH base
heading straight at us; stick hard left, full forward ; not a near miss, but a near collision at 200 ft.
Expect the unexpected!
John Firth ( old no longer bold )

A follow-on Clemens wrote, addressing some good comments to his original analysis:

https://chessintheair.com/are-dry-microburst-really-an-invisible-trap-responding-to-reactions/

Jim J6

On Monday, June 27, 2022 at 6:55:06 PM UTC-6, J6 aka Airport Bum wrote:
> Clemen’s analysis of Shmulik’s accident:
>
> https://chessintheair.com/invisible-microburst-kills-expert-glider-pilot
>
> Also, I understand that the NTSB is releasing their preliminary accident report on June 28 around 3 pm eastern time. Here are the instructions on how to find it:
>
> The preliminary report will be available in the NTSB Aviation Accident Database. Please follow these instructions to search for the report:
>
> Visit: https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-main-public/keyword-search
> Click the right side of the search box to open a drop down
> Click “Investigations”
> Input the accident number CEN22FA240 into the second search window
> Click the “Search” button on the right or hit the “Enter” key on your keyboard
> Once the search concludes, the accident investigation record will include a link to a PDF copy of the Preliminary Report
>
> The final report will take up to two years to be completed and released.
>
> Jim J6
>
> On Friday, June 10, 2022 at 8:56:45 AM UTC-6, R wrote:
> > This is a shocker. He was highly experienced and I hope the riddle is answered so that I (we) can learn from it.
> > I had the privilege of joining the regulars at Rifle last June for a short visit to learn and experience mountain flying and Shumlik was the Host and a mentor.
> >
> > R

Thank you, Clemens, for your insightful and very valuable contribution to improving the safety of our sport. As you note in your "Soaring - Chess in the Air" article--another fine piece of work--soaring is more dangerous than most of us think. Certainly it's the riskiest thing I do.

My number--of pilots I've known personally who have died in gliding accidents--is up to 20 now. I don't want to speak for Dave Nadler, who's written about safety, but I believe his is significantly higher.

As one fellow observed after a recent safety talk I gave on this subject, 20 deaths is not that many given that I've been in soaring since I soloed in 1965. Actually it goes back a few years before that when I crewed for my father. He was killed in a glider crash, which I witnessed, and since then I've watched two other fatal glider crashes and lost my best friend, Robert Robertson, in another. I have a great photo of Robbie taken of the top 3 at the 1986 U.S. 15 Meter Nats. Two of those 3 died in gliding accidents. The majority of pilots on my list were experienced competition pilots flying modern equipment.

But getting back to the point, it's true that 20 fatal crashes in 57 years sounds statistically unremarkable--except when I try to think of people I've known who died in auto accidents during that time: perhaps 2 or 3. As Bruno Gantenbrink pointed out in his 1993 speech on this subject, it's NOT true that "the most dangerous part of soaring is driving to and from the airport." My father used that old reassuring phrase myriad times, as did I. I haven't said it for many years.

Chip Bearden
JB