And by his actions, Trump is contributing to their demise.

Mass casualties from the coronavirus could upend the political landscape
in battleground states and shift contests away from President Donald
Trump, according to a new analysis.

Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration
journal � Administrative Theory & Praxis � conclude that when considering
nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the
virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to
Joe Biden in the fall.

�The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative
electorate leading into this election � and that�s simply just a
calculation of age,� Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of
management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview.
�The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that�s the key
to a GOP victory.�

Johnson and his colleagues Wendi Pollock and Beth M. Rauhaus projected
that even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000
more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the
election in both Michigan and North Carolina.

In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing
to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in
that age category could be lost.

The study is based on early fatality projections from CovidActNow.org that
are orders of magnitude higher than what's borne out so far in
battleground states � a point some outside experts have seized on to
inject a dose of skepticism in the study�s findings. In an interview,
Johnson acknowledged the high numbers used for the study, but he contended
it remains early and that easing of stay-at-home orders could spark more
cases and deaths.

William Galston, a Brookings Institution scholar on governance, said the
effects are large enough only to affect outcomes in states that are very
narrowly divided. But he concluded the study made sense.
CORONAVIRUS: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Democratic governors have been confronted with lawsuits over their stay-
at-home orders.
Confirmed U.S. Cases: 1,480,873 | U.S. Deaths: 89,318

Trump supporters, especially in Greater Appalachia, tend to be older and
heavier, traits correlated with underlying conditions that make Covid-19
more lethal, he said. Smoking levels � another leading indicator of
vulnerability � also tend to be higher in red areas.

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The analysis comes as Trump�s handling of the coronavirus increasingly is
turning away seniors who buoyed him in 2016, when the cohort supported him
over Hillary Clinton by 7 percentage points. Older voters consistently
vote at higher rates and have broken in the GOP�s favor for the better
part of two decades.

Seniors by significant numbers nationally prioritize defeating the virus
over reviving the sputtering economy, a spate of recent polls shows. And
Trump himself has started to acknowledge the impact of his policies on the
older cohort.

In a tweet Wednesday, the president cheered on states moving to reopen.
�Special care is, and always will be, given to our beloved seniors (except
me!),� Trump added in his message. �Their lives will be better than ever
.... WE LOVE YOU ALL!�

He used similar language late last month, saying. �Seniors will be watched
over protectively and lovingly.�

Researchers on the fatality study said they found the virus could also
ravage Republicans across Florida and Georgia, where GOP leaders have been
pulling back on aggressive defenses. The study looked at total anticipated
deaths on a statewide basis, which accounted for spiraling projections of
the virus in densely populated urban areas that are home to more
Democrats.

Still, there are caveats beyond the death figures used: Researchers used
national fatality rates because deaths by state were scant when they
started. They similarly applied national percentages of voters by age, not
state-by-state figures. But Johnson noted that could actually understate
effects in places like Florida, where the GOP relies more heavily on older
voters.