On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 6:52:01 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 3:43:47 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
> > On 4/30/2021 3:11 AM, Rick C wrote:
> > > On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 1:38:55 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
> > >> An alternative take that's not any more or less plausible than that Elon
> > >> Musk fever-dream: The age of the personal automobile is ending. Personal
> > >> automobiles will become the playthings of the very wealthy like horses
> > >> are today.
> > >
> > > That is entirely realistic. There are no small number of people in cities who don't have cars and use one of the car services to share cars for shopping or whatever. Once cars are self driving this will be greatly enhanced by the cars not needing to sit around waiting for someone in the local area to come to them like rental vehicles. Instead the cars will operate like taxis coming to the user.
> > >
> > > Not saying this will be any time soon. I think Elon said it would be the end of 2020 which was BS clearly. But maybe in 5 or 10 years. It's not an easy problem to solve.
> > Sort of assumes there's anyone really trying to solve any kind of
> > overarching "problem" in the auto industry. There are car companies,
> > they make cars and they want to sell cars. The one that make gas cars
> > and electric cars would like to sell a lot of gas and electric cars. The
> > ones that just make electric cars like Tesla would like to sell a lot of
> > those. The "problem" is how do we make next year's model so that we make
> > more money on it than the previous one, or for Tesla just how do we
> > consistently make some cash selling cars.
> >
> > IMO they're not really deeply invested in this long term
> > shift-the-paradigm stuff despite all the PR to the contrary, they wanna
> > sell cars.
> Yes, that's why I mentioned the paradigm shift example of watches in the first place. There will be auto companies (and other, auto related businesses) that simply do not shift weight onto the other foot quickly enough and end up stuck in the mud. The automotive industry has many, many failed companies that get bought up or just disappear. Usually it is the smaller ones, but sometimes the large ones don't keep up and become small ones that are swallowed up.
>
> Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.

Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.

> One of the nice things about being in California is the way the state supports EV charging. Some locations have regulations that an apartment renter has the right to install an EV charger if they pay for it. With time this won't be required as it will become an expected feature of apartment living like the laundry room. It will only be after charging is routine that EVs will dominate.

it's now mostly free and clear charging all the way to Vegas. But if one of the rest area station is down, EV drivers would be stranged. I will definitely make a trip in next few weeks, but only after getting AAA service. (4x 100 miles towings for $100).

On 4/30/2021 4:12 AM, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
> On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 00:02:40 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
> <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 1:27:36 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
>
>>> What makes you think anyone will ever make an EV under 20k for domestic
>>> sale? The low end of the market particularly cars is a thankless job and
>>> margins are thin.
>
> What makes you think that in the long run the EV would be more
> expensive than an ICE ?
>
> The EV drive train can be much simpler. You just need two or four
> motors directly at the wheels, driven by 2-4 VFDs. Ultimately a VFD
> can be made with a single IC controlling a few big IGBT/FETs. A few
> more power transistors are required for charging.
>
> At least in some pictures of Tesla electronics contained big PCBs full
> with components, no wonder it costs so much, Most of it could be
> integrated into a single chip.
>
>>
>> That is such a silly thing to say. If it's so terrible, why would anyone make low end cars at all? Simple, that's where the volume is. Very few car companies make only high end cars. For every $50,000 car sold there are a lot more $20,000 cars sold. Right now people are buying $35-$40,000 cars because there are none in the US at $20,000.
>>
>>
>>> Aside from some brands like Mitsubishi and Daewoo and some of the
>>> Chinese and Indian producers for purchase in those countries that's a
>>> market segment everyone else want to get out of, not get into. New car
>>> prices for cutting-edge cars go _up_, they don't go _down_.
>>
>> Again, rather silly thing to say. It's very easy to get out of a car market, just stop making those cars!
>>
>> You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.
>
> The most expensive component in an EV is the battery, but I expect the
> price will go down, when new mines and battery factories are currently
> being activated or at least planned.
>

There are a few sub-$20,000 cars. The average sale price of a new car in
the US is about $40,000 as of 2021

<https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20valuation%20analysts,0.3%25)%20from%20last%20month.>

What I'm saying is that yeah I think in 5-10 years the price on
components may come down enough that you can bang out $25,000 electric
cars that are quite good not a problem.

But the $25,000-car-buyer market segment effectively won't exist, there
will be more-or-less two types of new car buyer, those who can afford to
pay $50,000 for a new car, and those who can afford to pay
asymptotically $0 for a new car. So why are we trying to target the $0
market segment when we can just price it at $50,000.

On 30/04/2021 02:46, Rick C wrote:
> Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
>
> "Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
>
> " I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
>
> "Why does it make so much noise?"
>
> "Why does it smell so bad? Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe? Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"

https://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/

On 4/30/2021 10:31 AM, bitrex wrote:
> On 4/30/2021 4:12 AM, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
>> On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 00:02:40 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
>> <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 1:27:36 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
>>
>>>> What makes you think anyone will ever make an EV under 20k for domestic
>>>> sale? The low end of the market particularly cars is a thankless job
>>>> and
>>>> margins are thin.
>>
>> What makes you think that in the long run the EV would be more
>> expensive than an ICE ?
>>
>> The EV drive train can be much simpler. You just need two or four
>> motors directly at the wheels, driven by 2-4 VFDs. Ultimately a VFD
>> can be made with a single IC controlling a few big IGBT/FETs. A few
>> more power transistors are required for charging.
>>
>> At least in some pictures of Tesla electronics contained big PCBs full
>> with components, no wonder it costs so much, Most of it could be
>> integrated into a single chip.
>>
>>>
>>> That is such a silly thing to say.  If it's so terrible, why would
>>> anyone make low end cars at all?  Simple, that's where the volume
>>> is.  Very few car companies make only high end cars.  For every
>>> $50,000 car sold there are a lot more $20,000 cars sold.  Right now
>>> people are buying $35-$40,000 cars because there are none in the US
>>> at $20,000.
>>>
>>>
>>>> Aside from some brands like Mitsubishi and Daewoo and some of the
>>>> Chinese and Indian producers for purchase in those countries that's a
>>>> market segment everyone else want to get out of, not get into. New car
>>>> prices for cutting-edge cars go _up_, they don't go _down_.
>>>
>>> Again, rather silly thing to say.  It's very easy to get out of a car
>>> market, just stop making those cars!
>>>
>>> You totally miss the point.  In even just 5 years, EVs won't be
>>> "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points.  In 10
>>> years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper
>>> than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the
>>> cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.
>>
>> The most expensive component in an EV is the battery, but I expect the
>> price will go down, when new mines and battery factories are currently
>> being activated or at least planned.
>>
>
>
> There are a few sub-$20,000 cars. The average sale price of a new car in
> the US is about $40,000 as of 2021
>
> <https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20valuation%20analysts,0.3%25)%20from%20last%20month.>
>
>
> What I'm saying is that yeah I think in 5-10 years the price on
> components may come down enough that you can bang out $25,000 electric
> cars that are quite good not a problem.
>
> But the $25,000-car-buyer market segment effectively won't exist, there
> will be more-or-less two types of new car buyer, those who can afford to
> pay $50,000 for a new car, and those who can afford to pay
> asymptotically $0 for a new car. So why are we trying to target the $0
> market segment when we can just price it at $50,000.
>

I don't think cars aren't quite the same situation as like laptop PCs
and cell phones where economies of scale lower the price so much over 10
years that the average consumer is like "Oh you can get one for $500
now? Well I'll buy three instead of one."

On 29/04/2021 21:18, Mike Coon wrote:
> In article <553a90fe-bd2d-43b8-aba9-091ddadfe170n@googlegroups.com>,
> edward.ming.lee@gmail.com says...
>>
>> I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

It is a bit unnerving when an electric vehicle moves off silently
without warning in a carpark if you haven't spotted the driver inside.

> Why can't the "horn" make an apologetic cough? I'm sure I've had engines
> do something similar...

In some parts of rural UK police cars can make a "sheepdog" noise to
flush sheep off the open moorland road ahead of them. It doesn't always
work as some sheep are stupid enough to go straight along the road for
quite a while.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 10:26:59 AM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
> On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 6:52:01 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> >
> > Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.
> Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.

Huh? Automakers like Tesla??? GM has talked about teaming with Bechtel to build their own charging network. They can do pretty much anything they want. The government's interest is in getting them all to cooperate and combine forces. The company's interest is in finding ways of making their cars more appealing. These two things are in conflict.

> > One of the nice things about being in California is the way the state supports EV charging. Some locations have regulations that an apartment renter has the right to install an EV charger if they pay for it. With time this won't be required as it will become an expected feature of apartment living like the laundry room. It will only be after charging is routine that EVs will dominate.
> it's now mostly free and clear charging all the way to Vegas. But if one of the rest area station is down, EV drivers would be stranged. I will definitely make a trip in next few weeks, but only after getting AAA service. (4x 100 miles towings for $100).

It's not that way with the Tesla network. They are close enough you can skip one, or two or even three depending on the area you are in. Maybe not so much in North Dakota at the moment, but even in Texas you can go anywhere with less than 130 miles between chargers... other than maybe Lubbock. On the Vegas trip chargers are 50 miles apart. Even your car could make it while skipping a charger... wait, no, maybe not.

I'm not clear on why you say this actually. When I check on Plugshare they show CCS and Chademo at the same locations. What's the problem? Anyone driving an EV they should be driving outside of town can skip one or even two chargers on the route to Las Vegas.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 10:31:38 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
> On 4/30/2021 4:12 AM, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:
> > On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 00:02:40 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
> > <gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.
> >
> > The most expensive component in an EV is the battery, but I expect the
> > price will go down, when new mines and battery factories are currently
> > being activated or at least planned.
> >
> There are a few sub-$20,000 cars. The average sale price of a new car in
> the US is about $40,000 as of 2021
>
> <https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20valuation%20analysts,0.3%25)%20from%20last%20month.>

This is a case where the average is not a good number to consider. Better would be the mode or even the median or actually, none of the above. Look at the car that sells the most. Even that is bogus as they group a wide range of styles into one model name with very different pricing.

> What I'm saying is that yeah I think in 5-10 years the price on
> components may come down enough that you can bang out $25,000 electric
> cars that are quite good not a problem.
>
> But the $25,000-car-buyer market segment effectively won't exist, there
> will be more-or-less two types of new car buyer, those who can afford to
> pay $50,000 for a new car, and those who can afford to pay
> asymptotically $0 for a new car. So why are we trying to target the $0
> market segment when we can just price it at $50,000.

There's a good reason why you aren't in the auto manufacturing business.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 10:36:33 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 29/04/2021 21:18, Mike Coon wrote:
> > In article <553a90fe-bd2d-43b8...@googlegroups.com>,
> > edward....@gmail.com says...
> >>
> >> I need an ICE engine noise simulator.
> It is a bit unnerving when an electric vehicle moves off silently
> without warning in a carpark if you haven't spotted the driver inside.
> > Why can't the "horn" make an apologetic cough? I'm sure I've had engines
> > do something similar...
> In some parts of rural UK police cars can make a "sheepdog" noise to
> flush sheep off the open moorland road ahead of them. It doesn't always
> work as some sheep are stupid enough to go straight along the road for
> quite a while.

That's the sort of update Tesla should be pushing to cars instead of making fart sounds.

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On 4/30/2021 3:02 AM, Rick C wrote:
> On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 1:27:36 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
>> On 4/30/2021 1:15 AM, Rick C wrote:
>>> On Thursday, April 29, 2021 at 10:48:58 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
>>>>>
>>>> A real Marxist would be uninterested in what car any particular person
>>>> drives; whether they drive a zero-emissions luxury Tesla that makes them
>>>> feel good about saving the Earth or an F-450 that gets 4 mpg, or whether
>>>> they use paper or plastic at the store because the glossy sign tells
>>>> them it's better to use paper. It's of no interest to them. "Fuck the
>>>> machines, we want the machines that are making them" is an expression.
>>>>
>>>> But since I would be unlikely to be a very good Marxist by any measure I
>>>> will continue to drive my "budget"-priced not-electric, not-gas sedan
>>>> like the snob I am. or whatever.
>>>
>>> Whenever people talk about driving a Tesla because they want to "virtue signal" or whatever, I realize they have never driven a Tesla, not in a meaningful way. I'm looking at relocation to Puerto Rico and I was thinking I'd leave the car here, but transporting the car is not that much money. It's a nice car in so many ways. By the time the Harleys can't find a gas station within range EVs will be under $20,000 and the fuel savings will be enough that no one can afford to drive an ICE.
>>>
>> What makes you think anyone will ever make an EV under 20k for domestic
>> sale? The low end of the market particularly cars is a thankless job and
>> margins are thin.
>
> That is such a silly thing to say. If it's so terrible, why would anyone make low end cars at all? Simple, that's where the volume is. Very few car companies make only high end cars. For every $50,000 car sold there are a lot more $20,000 cars sold. Right now people are buying $35-$40,000 cars because there are none in the US at $20,000.
>
>
>> Aside from some brands like Mitsubishi and Daewoo and some of the
>> Chinese and Indian producers for purchase in those countries that's a
>> market segment everyone else want to get out of, not get into. New car
>> prices for cutting-edge cars go _up_, they don't go _down_.
>
> Again, rather silly thing to say. It's very easy to get out of a car market, just stop making those cars!
>
> You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.
>
> That is the point where there are so few ICE left on the roads that half the gas stations will have turned into ice cream parlors or 7-11s. I would really like to be in the room when the big chain gas stations are planning their futures.
>
> What I'm really wondering about is if this transition will be like the impact of quartz digital devices on the watch market. It didn't take long at all for the Swiss to lose dominance in the watch market. Something similar could happen with EVs where some automakers simply can't make the transition and fade away.
>
> BTW, it is just plain silly to think the low end EV cost is going to rise in the next 40 years unless there is some major disaster affecting a vital resource. EVs will continue to drop in price for the foreseeable future.
>

"There is also evidence that suggests the price gap between electric
cars and gas-powered cars is closing even more. According to Quartz, the
average cost of a new car in June 2019 in the U.S. was $36,600. This was
a 2% increase from the year before. However, according to data from Cox
Automotive, the average cost of an electric vehicle decreased from
$64,300 to $55,600: a 13.4% decrease from the year before. And this drop
would be even more pronounced if most manufacturers were not still
focusing on making luxury electric vehicles."

<https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a31544842/how-much-is-an-electric-car/>

I think it's a big leap to extrapolate 64k down to 55k, to 55k down to 35k.

Cuz I think the reason most manufacturers are focusing on luxury EVs is
they don't see that much money to be made at the low end, at least not
for first-world sale. So long as gas prices stay relatively low the
financial motivation isn't there, and Americans buy cars as much on
image as they do on pragmatism; the market for bare-bones cars is small
outside of fleets. A $25,000 EV is going to have significant compromises
made to hit that price point no way around it.

On 4/30/2021 11:20 AM, Rick C wrote:
> On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 10:31:38 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
>> On 4/30/2021 4:12 AM, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:
>>> On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 00:02:40 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
>>> <gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.
>>>
>>> The most expensive component in an EV is the battery, but I expect the
>>> price will go down, when new mines and battery factories are currently
>>> being activated or at least planned.
>>>
>> There are a few sub-$20,000 cars. The average sale price of a new car in
>> the US is about $40,000 as of 2021
>>
>> <https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20valuation%20analysts,0.3%25)%20from%20last%20month.>
>
> This is a case where the average is not a good number to consider. Better would be the mode or even the median or actually, none of the above. Look at the car that sells the most. Even that is bogus as they group a wide range of styles into one model name with very different pricing.

One wonders how high the average sale price of a new car would have to
go up until "all numbers are bogus" ceases to be a good explanation. The
"car" that sells the most in the US is the Ford F-150 and its average
sale price is $47,000. You can buy a $30,000 F-150 but the number they
sell a year of the base trim is tiny.

>> What I'm saying is that yeah I think in 5-10 years the price on
>> components may come down enough that you can bang out $25,000 electric
>> cars that are quite good not a problem.
>>
>> But the $25,000-car-buyer market segment effectively won't exist, there
>> will be more-or-less two types of new car buyer, those who can afford to
>> pay $50,000 for a new car, and those who can afford to pay
>> asymptotically $0 for a new car. So why are we trying to target the $0
>> market segment when we can just price it at $50,000.
>
> There's a good reason why you aren't in the auto manufacturing business.
>

Yeah, I don't have the capacity to be endlessly full of shit the way
Elon Musk is, I'm not a good fit for the job, lol.

Tesla-cultism is weird. They really think this guy has got the future of
transport all figured out and it's not just a bunch of flailing around.

<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 8:15:37 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 10:26:59 AM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
> > On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 6:52:01 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> > >
> > > Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.
> > Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.
> Huh? Automakers like Tesla??? GM has talked about teaming with Bechtel to build their own charging network. They can do pretty much anything they want. The government's interest is in getting them all to cooperate and combine forces. The company's interest is in finding ways of making their cars more appealing. These two things are in conflict.
> > > One of the nice things about being in California is the way the state supports EV charging. Some locations have regulations that an apartment renter has the right to install an EV charger if they pay for it. With time this won't be required as it will become an expected feature of apartment living like the laundry room. It will only be after charging is routine that EVs will dominate.
> > it's now mostly free and clear charging all the way to Vegas. But if one of the rest area station is down, EV drivers would be stranged. I will definitely make a trip in next few weeks, but only after getting AAA service. (4x 100 miles towings for $100).
> It's not that way with the Tesla network. They are close enough you can skip one, or two or even three depending on the area you are in. Maybe not so much in North Dakota at the moment, but even in Texas you can go anywhere with less than 130 miles between chargers... other than maybe Lubbock. On the Vegas trip chargers are 50 miles apart. Even your car could make it while skipping a charger... wait, no, maybe not.
>
> I'm not clear on why you say this actually. When I check on Plugshare they show CCS and Chademo at the same locations. What's the problem? Anyone driving an EV they should be driving outside of town can skip one or even two chargers on the route to Las Vegas.

The one half way up the mountain. Distance is deceptive. Skipping it down hill might be possible, but not going up hill.

On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 05:09:23 -0000 (UTC), John Doe
<always.look@message.header> wrote:

>Rick C wrote:
>
>> John Larkin wrote:
>
>>> I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
>>> replacement.
>>>
>>> I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
>>> everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
>>> Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
>>> halfway pickup truck things.
>>>
>>> There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
>>> make noise?
>>
>> Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
>> gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
>> silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
>> raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
>> to listen to.
>>
>> But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
>> to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
>> Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
>> trailer behind.
>
>That's weird...

Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
charging stop.

This could be Tesla's perfect storm:

All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to
sell theirs to get gas cars.

Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.

There's not enough lithium to make batteries.

Bitcoin tanks.

Solar City keeps collapsing.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

On 4/30/2021 1:09 AM, John Doe wrote:
> Rick C wrote:
>
>> John Larkin wrote:
>
>>> I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
>>> replacement.
>>>
>>> I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
>>> everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
>>> Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
>>> halfway pickup truck things.
>>>
>>> There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
>>> make noise?
>>
>> Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
>> gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
>> silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
>> raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
>> to listen to.
>>
>> But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
>> to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
>> Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
>> trailer behind.
>
> That's weird...
>

"we will coup whoever we want"

<<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

Like I would ever buy any of this guy's products. He can go fuck a
donkey's dickhole.

On 4/30/2021 12:00 PM, bitrex wrote:
> On 4/30/2021 1:09 AM, John Doe wrote:
>> Rick C wrote:
>>
>>> John Larkin wrote:
>>
>>>> I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
>>>> replacement.
>>>>
>>>> I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
>>>> everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
>>>> Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
>>>> halfway pickup truck things.
>>>>
>>>> There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
>>>> make noise?
>>>
>>> Exactly.  It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
>>> gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
>>> silence of life will settle over the land.   Well, except for the yahoos
>>> raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
>>> to listen to.
>>>
>>> But it won't be Harleys.  In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
>>> to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
>>> Motorcycles usually don't have much range.  I guess one could tow a gas
>>> trailer behind.
>>
>> That's weird...
>>
>
>
> "we will coup whoever we want"
>
> <<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>
>
> Like I would ever buy any of this guy's products. He can go fuck a
> donkey's dickhole.

Oops, wrong link, though the previous is an amusing one. Here's the
correct one:

<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

On 4/30/2021 11:58 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 05:09:23 -0000 (UTC), John Doe
> <always.look@message.header> wrote:
>
>> Rick C wrote:
>>
>>> John Larkin wrote:
>>
>>>> I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
>>>> replacement.
>>>>
>>>> I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
>>>> everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
>>>> Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
>>>> halfway pickup truck things.
>>>>
>>>> There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
>>>> make noise?
>>>
>>> Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
>>> gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
>>> silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
>>> raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
>>> to listen to.
>>>
>>> But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
>>> to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
>>> Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
>>> trailer behind.
>>
>> That's weird...
>
> Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
> in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
> charging stop.
>
> This could be Tesla's perfect storm:
>
> All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to
> sell theirs to get gas cars.
>
> Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.
>
> There's not enough lithium to make batteries.
>
> Bitcoin tanks.
>
> Solar City keeps collapsing.
>
>

"We will coup whoever we want":

<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 9:06:55 AM UTC-7, bitrex wrote:
> On 4/30/2021 11:58 AM, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> > On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 05:09:23 -0000 (UTC), John Doe
> > <alway...@message.header> wrote:
> >
> >> Rick C wrote:
> >>
> >>> John Larkin wrote:
> >>
> >>>> I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
> >>>> replacement.
> >>>>
> >>>> I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
> >>>> everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
> >>>> Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
> >>>> halfway pickup truck things.
> >>>>
> >>>> There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
> >>>> make noise?
> >>>
> >>> Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
> >>> gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
> >>> silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
> >>> raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
> >>> to listen to.
> >>>
> >>> But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
> >>> to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
> >>> Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
> >>> trailer behind.
> >>
> >> That's weird...
> >
> > Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
> > in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
> > charging stop.
> >
> > This could be Tesla's perfect storm:
> >
> > All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to
> > sell theirs to get gas cars.
> >
> > Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.
> >
> > There's not enough lithium to make batteries.
> >
> > Bitcoin tanks.
> >
> > Solar City keeps collapsing.
> >
> >
> "We will coup whoever we want":
>
> <https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

The links are all the same.

When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.

On 4/30/2021 12:06 PM, bitrex wrote:
> On 4/30/2021 11:58 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>> On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 05:09:23 -0000 (UTC), John Doe
>> <always.look@message.header> wrote:
>>
>>> Rick C wrote:
>>>
>>>> John Larkin wrote:
>>>
>>>>> I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
>>>>> replacement.
>>>>>
>>>>> I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
>>>>> everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
>>>>> Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
>>>>> halfway pickup truck things.
>>>>>
>>>>> There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
>>>>> make noise?
>>>>
>>>> Exactly.  It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer
>>>> sell
>>>> gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
>>>> silence of life will settle over the land.   Well, except for the
>>>> yahoos
>>>> raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
>>>> to listen to.
>>>>
>>>> But it won't be Harleys.  In ten years or so you'll have to drive so
>>>> far
>>>> to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
>>>> Motorcycles usually don't have much range.  I guess one could tow a gas
>>>> trailer behind.
>>>
>>> That's weird...
>>
>> Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
>> in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
>> charging stop.
>>
>> This could be Tesla's perfect storm:
>>
>> All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to
>> sell theirs to get gas cars.
>>
>> Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.
>>
>> There's not enough lithium to make batteries.
>>
>> Bitcoin tanks.
>>
>> Solar City keeps collapsing.
>>
>>
>
> "We will coup whoever we want":
>
> <https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>
>

Something weird going on with Reddit direct image links. Original story:

<https://www.carscoops.com/2021/03/bolivian-president-accuses-elon-musk-and-tesla-of-being-involved-in-countrys-2019-coup/#lg=1&slide=0>

On 4/30/2021 12:11 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
> On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 9:06:55 AM UTC-7, bitrex wrote:
>> On 4/30/2021 11:58 AM, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>> On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 05:09:23 -0000 (UTC), John Doe
>>> <alway...@message.header> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Rick C wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> John Larkin wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>> I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
>>>>>> replacement.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
>>>>>> everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
>>>>>> Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
>>>>>> halfway pickup truck things.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
>>>>>> make noise?
>>>>>
>>>>> Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
>>>>> gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
>>>>> silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
>>>>> raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
>>>>> to listen to.
>>>>>
>>>>> But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
>>>>> to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
>>>>> Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
>>>>> trailer behind.
>>>>
>>>> That's weird...
>>>
>>> Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
>>> in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
>>> charging stop.
>>>
>>> This could be Tesla's perfect storm:
>>>
>>> All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to
>>> sell theirs to get gas cars.
>>>
>>> Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.
>>>
>>> There's not enough lithium to make batteries.
>>>
>>> Bitcoin tanks.
>>>
>>> Solar City keeps collapsing.
>>>
>>>
>> "We will coup whoever we want":
>>
>> <https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>
>
> The links are all the same.

Yeah, something weird is happening with direct image links to Reddit for
me /shrug

> When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.
>

On Sat, 1 May 2021 00:32:37 +1000, Chris Jones
<lugnut808@spam.yahoo.com> wrote:

>On 30/04/2021 02:46, Rick C wrote:
>> Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
>>
>> "Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
>>
>> " I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
>>
>> "Why does it make so much noise?"
>>
>> "Why does it smell so bad? Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe? Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"
>
>https://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/
>
>
>

That's bizarre, and terrible writing too. Is it from 50 years ago?

Modern cars don't smell bad or to any of that imaginary stuff. And
they refuel in 5 minutes, every couple hundred miles.

Gas costs so much in europe because the price is mostly tax. That guy
is cheap and wants free energy. Reminds me of some people here.

US politicians are worried about electrics not paying gas tax, so they
want to tax miles driven too. Simultaneously subsidizing electrics!

On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 07:26:56 -0700 (PDT), Ed Lee
<edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 6:52:01 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:

>> Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.

In the US, are there really separate gas stations only for GM and
others only for VW ICE vehicles ??

Why should there be different EV charging stations for different car
makers ?

>Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.

AC charging is pretty simple with the national voltages and AC
currents limited available at each site.

The fast DC charging situation is more problematic due to different
battery voltages in EVs. While 400 Vdc seems to pretty common voltage
these days, but some manufacturers already use 800 Vdc, so the fast
charging stations need to be able to adjust to these voltages.

A fast charging station (50-100 kW) will need a close by MV (medium
voltage 14-20 kV) feed, so this will increase the cost of a fast
charging station and hence the cost of electricity.

On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 10:13:25 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com"
<keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:

>On Thursday, 29 April 2021 at 12:36:39 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
>...
>> >
>> I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
>> replacement.
>
>Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

>
>Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 10:22:11 -0700, John Larkin
<jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

>On Sat, 1 May 2021 00:32:37 +1000, Chris Jones
><lugnut808@spam.yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>>On 30/04/2021 02:46, Rick C wrote:
>>> Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
>>>
>>> "Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
>>>
>>> " I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
>>>
>>> "Why does it make so much noise?"
>>>
>>> "Why does it smell so bad? Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe? Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"
>>
>>https://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/
>>
>>
>>
>
>That's bizarre, and terrible writing too. Is it from 50 years ago?
>
>Modern cars don't smell bad or to any of that imaginary stuff. And
>they refuel in 5 minutes, every couple hundred miles.

At least in cold climate a car with a catalysator smells bad during
the first minutes after startup.

On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 20:30:19 +0300, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:

>On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 07:26:56 -0700 (PDT), Ed Lee
><edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>On Friday, April 30, 2021 at 6:52:01 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>
>>> Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.
>
>In the US, are there really separate gas stations only for GM and
>others only for VW ICE vehicles ??
>
>Why should there be different EV charging stations for different car
>makers ?
>
>>Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.
>
>AC charging is pretty simple with the national voltages and AC
>currents limited available at each site.
>
>The fast DC charging situation is more problematic due to different
>battery voltages in EVs. While 400 Vdc seems to pretty common voltage
>these days, but some manufacturers already use 800 Vdc, so the fast
>charging stations need to be able to adjust to these voltages.
>
>A fast charging station (50-100 kW) will need a close by MV (medium
>voltage 14-20 kV) feed, so this will increase the cost of a fast
>charging station and hence the cost of electricity.
>

Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

On Friday, 30 April 2021 at 10:30:25 UTC-7, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:
....
> The fast DC charging situation is more problematic due to different
> battery voltages in EVs. While 400 Vdc seems to pretty common voltage
> these days, but some manufacturers already use 800 Vdc, so the fast
> charging stations need to be able to adjust to these voltages.

Not necessarily.

To get the highest speed of charging the station needs to adapt but existing 800V system EVs (Porsche and Kia) can also charge from 400V.

The latest version of the Combined Charging standard supports from 350-1000V at up to 400A. (500kW maximum power) to allow both 400V and 800V cars to be charged.

> A fast charging station (50-100 kW) will need a close by MV (medium
> voltage 14-20 kV) feed, so this will increase the cost of a fast
> charging station and hence the cost of electricity.

Usually, this is true but even then the cost per mile (both in energy and Dollars) when using an EV is significantly less than when using Gasoline.

Tesla has announced that they are building stations where the power is from local solar power. (Probably with local battery storage).

Battery storage is also used for some charging stations using wired power to smooth the demand, minimize demand fees and the capacity of any grid connection required.

kw

On 4/30/2021 1:41 PM, John Larkin wrote:
> On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 10:13:25 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com"
> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:
>
>> On Thursday, 29 April 2021 at 12:36:39 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
>> ...
>>>>
>>> I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
>>> replacement.
>>
>> Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...
>
> Or they keep the one they have.
>
>>
>> Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.
>
> People bought PT Cruisers too.
>

I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Not insurmountable but I think it's likely if it comes to pass it will
be built overseas. Musk may even have to get in there and whip those
Chinese slaves himself to get the job done but he's shown he's
definitely not above getting his hands dirty when required.