Yeah, it's looking like the delta variant isn't going to wait for the Fall season to kick into high gear. The 7 day average new infection count on June 30 was 13,618 and the number for July 14 was 26,704 or nearly double. The doubling time for the delta variant is likely shorter than that because the earlier numbers are masked by the other variants which continue to die off. As the delta variant continues to dominate the infection rate numbers we will see it's true doubling rate.

In March and April 2020 the doubling rate in the US was about three days until we reached a number somewhat below 100,000 total infected and the social distancing measures started to take effect. Now with the various measures in place and around half the country vaccinated we are seeing the delta variant return to an exponentially increasing growth rate.

We can always impose the protective measures with more vigor, but with the delta variant growing even in regions where the protective measures are still in wide use this may not accomplish much. It would seem we are now in a position where only the vaccine will prevent another rise in the infection and death rates in the US.

The UK is seeing exactly such a growth rate in new infections and were only comforted by the death rate remaining below 10 per day. However, as the new infection numbers rise the death rate numbers have been rising as well even if more gradually. The UK had seen weeks with deaths between 5 and 10, now the daily death rate has quadrupled to over 30. It is inevitable the death rate will climb into the hundreds per day as the new infection rate continues to climb. The same thing will invariably happen in the US if we can't get a lot more people vaccinated. A LOT more.

I don't expect that to happen any time soon. More likely is we will reach herd immunity from the unvaccinated catching the disease with a significant portion of them dying off. Many of those who don't die will suffer with lasting symptoms for a long time if not permanently. I'm glad this mortality and morbidity is very rare in those vaccinated.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On 15/07/2021 10:11, Rick C wrote:
> Yeah, it's looking like the delta variant isn't going to wait for the
> Fall season to kick into high gear. The 7 day average new infection
> count on June 30 was 13,618 and the number for July 14 was 26,704 or
> nearly double. The doubling time for the delta variant is likely
> shorter than that because the earlier numbers are masked by the other
> variants which continue to die off. As the delta variant continues
> to dominate the infection rate numbers we will see it's true doubling
> rate.

With reasonable precautionary measures (masks and social distancing) and
no lockdown the UK is presently holding it to 1.3x exponential growth in
a national population where 66% of adults are double jabbed and 88% have
had the first jab. So far hospitalisation rates are tolerable but...

It is causing trouble now since the high incidence of ~1% Covid in the
population is causing too many isolate for 10 days pings on the tracing
app. The governments response is to make the app less sensitive!

We are about to do a crazy unlock everything next Monday to see just how
high we can push the infection rate up during midsummer. This is utter
madness but we have a crazy government led by a complete nutter.

> In March and April 2020 the doubling rate in the US was about three
> days until we reached a number somewhat below 100,000 total infected
> and the social distancing measures started to take effect. Now with
> the various measures in place and around half the country vaccinated
> we are seeing the delta variant return to an exponentially increasing
> growth rate.

Three day doubling rate was about par for the original Wuhan wild strain
that first reached the UK into an unprotected population with no
measures in place at all. I expect delta to manage more like 7x if it is
allowed to let rip unfettered. We will find out soon enough :(

> We can always impose the protective measures with more vigor, but
> with the delta variant growing even in regions where the protective
> measures are still in wide use this may not accomplish much. It
> would seem we are now in a position where only the vaccine will
> prevent another rise in the infection and death rates in the US.

Don't bet on the vaccine saving you from the delta variant. The hottest
place in the UK right now has adults 81% first dose and 64% double
dosed. The infection is running through children and young adults but
from there going out into the wider community. If exposed to the virus
being vaccinated cuts your chances of catching Covid by a factor of
three but it doesn't eliminate it entirely.

Feed South Tyneside in here where it says "postcode" to see the graph:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Note that the majority of infections are in the under 60s's (actually
under 30's but that split is not shown) but is now spreading into the
over 60's with a couple of weeks lag.

The vaccine seems to prevent fatalities by at least an order of
magnitude but we will know better after this dangerous experiment.
Reckless doesn't begin to describe the actions of our UK "government".

> The UK is seeing exactly such a growth rate in new infections and
> were only comforted by the death rate remaining below 10 per day.
> However, as the new infection numbers rise the death rate numbers
> have been rising as well even if more gradually. The UK had seen

They are now also rising exponentially but with a fortnight lag. People
forget that there is a time lag between infection and hospital admission
and then again between that and any final outcome.

> I don't expect that to happen any time soon. More likely is we will
> reach herd immunity from the unvaccinated catching the disease with a
> significant portion of them dying off. Many of those who don't die
> will suffer with lasting symptoms for a long time if not permanently.
> I'm glad this mortality and morbidity is very rare in those
> vaccinated.

I expect it varies a lot from state to state but what are the typical US
vaccination rates in populous coastal states like California?
(and for comparison in a populous red state like say Texas)

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On 7/15/2021 2:45 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
> I expect it varies a lot from state to state but what are the typical US
> vaccination rates in populous coastal states like California?
> (and for comparison in a populous red state like say Texas)

Vaccination rates are only part of the story. Different sections
of the population (age, political affiliation) exhibit different
vaccination rates.

The oldest have the highest vaccination rates -- they, no doubt, learned
from (bad!) experience! ~76% of the over 65 crowd are fully vaccinated
with 85% having received at least one jab. The percentages drop by about 10%
for each ~10 years of decreasing age. The 12-15 year-olds seeing 22% fully
and 30% one-shot.

The Blue states have higher overall vaccination rates; the Red states
are being fed a steady diet of misinformation (in the hope of killing them
off?). For example, New England (largely Blue) has vaccination rates of
~60+% fully and ~70% one-shot.

By contrast, the "red heart" of the country tends to be closer to 35-40 fully
and 50% one-shot. Alabama -- known for its great thinkers -- is at 33% & 40%.
Another source of rocket scientists -- Mississippi -- has them "beat" at
33% and 37%.

By contrast, California is at 51% & 62%.

A common analogy has been to correlate "blueness" with vaccination adoption
rates (and inversely with "redness")

Gonna be a bad Fall. The notion that "kids don't get it" has been
easily disproven. Yet, there is a strong push to get kids back INTO
school (so parents can go to work).

On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 7:12:03 PM UTC+10, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> Yeah, it's looking like the delta variant isn't going to wait for the Fall season to kick into high gear. The 7 day average new infection count on June 30 was 13,618 and the number for July 14 was 26,704 or nearly double. The doubling time for the delta variant is likely shorter than that because the earlier numbers are masked by the other variants which continue to die off. As the delta variant continues to dominate the infection rate numbers we will see it's true doubling rate.
>
> In March and April 2020 the doubling rate in the US was about three days until we reached a number somewhat below 100,000 total infected and the social distancing measures started to take effect. Now with the various measures in place and around half the country vaccinated we are seeing the delta variant return to an exponentially increasing growth rate.
>
> We can always impose the protective measures with more vigor, but with the delta variant growing even in regions where the protective measures are still in wide use this may not accomplish much. It would seem we are now in a position where only the vaccine will prevent another rise in the infection and death rates in the US.

Sydney - and now most of New South Wales - is having a nasty outbreak with the delta strain.

New infections per day have crept up to about one hundred, with thirty or forty of them lose in the community before they were detected.

We've now got a fairly strict lock-down in place, but the disease has got into low-income areas where family groups are bigger.

Previous outbreaks have been controlled a lot faster, but the delta strain is just that bit more infectious. Vaccination levels are low - around 10% - and concentrated in the elderly and the more at risk, though a lot more people are now getting vaccinated as the doses we ordered earlier in the year are starting to arrive. I got Australian made Astra Zeneca vaccine, but Pfizer is preferred for younger people, and we'll be importing that for quite a while. We should have enough to vaccinate almost everybody by the end of the year, but we have anti-vax nutters like everywhere else.

We've just had one death - the first for more than a year - and there are couple of people on ventilators.

The authorities still hope to contain it, but it is worrying.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 15/07/21 10:45, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 15/07/2021 10:11, Rick C wrote:
>> Yeah, it's looking like the delta variant isn't going to wait for the
>> Fall season to kick into high gear.  The 7 day average new infection
>> count on June 30 was 13,618 and the number for July 14 was 26,704 or
>> nearly double.  The doubling time for the delta variant is likely
>> shorter than that because the earlier numbers are masked by the other
>> variants which continue to die off.  As the delta variant continues
>> to dominate the infection rate numbers we will see it's true doubling
>> rate.
>
> With reasonable precautionary measures (masks and social distancing) and no
> lockdown the UK is presently holding it to 1.3x exponential growth in a national
> population where 66% of adults are double jabbed and 88% have had the first jab.
> So far hospitalisation rates are tolerable but...
>
> It is causing trouble now since the high incidence of ~1% Covid in the
> population is causing too many isolate for 10 days pings on the tracing app. The
> governments response is to make the app less sensitive!

Akin to Trump's asking whether they could reduce the
infection rate by stopping testing!

> We are about to do a crazy unlock everything next Monday to see just how high we
> can push the infection rate up during midsummer. This is utter madness

That isn't quite so clear, although it seems intuitive.

I've been seeing multiple independent modelling studies
which indicate that opening up now won't make as much
difference as it did in the past. There are two caveats:
- people still behave responsibly
- the peak infection/hospitalisation rates are unpleasantly
dependent (2:1) on the parameters chosen

"Flare up bum" man and travelling on the tube/train make
the first questionable.

> but we
> have a crazy government led by a complete nutter.
He isn't a nutter, but he is despicable - which is worse.

On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 04:05:46 -0700, Don Y
<blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:

>On 7/15/2021 2:45 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>> I expect it varies a lot from state to state but what are the typical US
>> vaccination rates in populous coastal states like California?
>> (and for comparison in a populous red state like say Texas)
>
>Vaccination rates are only part of the story. Different sections
>of the population (age, political affiliation) exhibit different
>vaccination rates.
>
>The oldest have the highest vaccination rates -- they, no doubt, learned
>from (bad!) experience! ~76% of the over 65 crowd are fully vaccinated
>with 85% having received at least one jab. The percentages drop by about 10%
>for each ~10 years of decreasing age. The 12-15 year-olds seeing 22% fully
>and 30% one-shot.
>
>The Blue states have higher overall vaccination rates; the Red states
>are being fed a steady diet of misinformation (in the hope of killing them
>off?). For example, New England (largely Blue) has vaccination rates of
>~60+% fully and ~70% one-shot.
>
>By contrast, the "red heart" of the country tends to be closer to 35-40 fully
>and 50% one-shot. Alabama -- known for its great thinkers -- is at 33% & 40%.
>Another source of rocket scientists -- Mississippi -- has them "beat" at
>33% and 37%.

It's amazing the contempt urban types have for people they have
probably never met... the people who keep them defended and warm and
fed. If my car were broken down in a storm on a lonely road, I'd sure
rather that the next vehicle had Mississippi plates than New Jersey.

Low population density is the natural protection from the virus. There
are counties in California that have had zero covid deaths so far, so
people are not panicked to get vaccinated there. Half the deaths in CA
have been in three counties in the south.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

On Friday, July 16, 2021 at 12:15:49 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 04:05:46 -0700, Don Y
> <blocked...@foo.invalid> wrote:
>
> >On 7/15/2021 2:45 AM, Martin Brown wrote:

<snipped the simple facts that seem to have offended John Larkin>

> It's amazing the contempt urban types have for people they have
> probably never met... the people who keep them defended and warm and
> fed. If my car were broken down in a storm on a lonely road, I'd sure
> rather that the next vehicle had Mississippi plates than New Jersey.

But the people driving it are less likely to have been vaccinated. This is a matter of fact, not any kind of moral judgement.

> Low population density is the natural protection from the virus.

It helps, but it isn't a long term defense. The Spanish flu got right through Australia (and killed my wife's grandfather in his late twenties which didn't help my wife's mother when she was growing up).

>There are counties in California that have had zero covid deaths so far, so people are not panicked to get vaccinated there.

Getting vaccinated isn't a panic reaction. Sane people do it before the virus shows up in their area.

> Half the deaths in CA have been in three counties in the south.

That how contagious diseases work.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The US may have vaccinated a lot of people but clearly not enough. The country still has five million active cases, and the new case per day rate is over 35,000 and seems to be going up again.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 7/15/2021 7:15 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 04:05:46 -0700, Don Y
> <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:
>
>> On 7/15/2021 2:45 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>>> I expect it varies a lot from state to state but what are the typical US
>>> vaccination rates in populous coastal states like California?
>>> (and for comparison in a populous red state like say Texas)
>>
>> Vaccination rates are only part of the story. Different sections
>> of the population (age, political affiliation) exhibit different
>> vaccination rates.
>>
>> The oldest have the highest vaccination rates -- they, no doubt, learned
>>from (bad!) experience! ~76% of the over 65 crowd are fully vaccinated
>> with 85% having received at least one jab. The percentages drop by about 10%
>> for each ~10 years of decreasing age. The 12-15 year-olds seeing 22% fully
>> and 30% one-shot.
>>
>> The Blue states have higher overall vaccination rates; the Red states
>> are being fed a steady diet of misinformation (in the hope of killing them
>> off?). For example, New England (largely Blue) has vaccination rates of
>> ~60+% fully and ~70% one-shot.
>>
>> By contrast, the "red heart" of the country tends to be closer to 35-40 fully
>> and 50% one-shot. Alabama -- known for its great thinkers -- is at 33% & 40%.
>> Another source of rocket scientists -- Mississippi -- has them "beat" at
>> 33% and 37%.
>
> It's amazing the contempt urban types have for people they have
> probably never met... the people who keep them defended and warm and
> fed. If my car were broken down in a storm on a lonely road, I'd sure
> rather that the next vehicle had Mississippi plates than New Jersey.

Yes, isn't it! Having grown up in a town of *2,000*, those "city slickers"
sure can be arrogant! Having 4 towns pool their student bodies to
populate a single high school -- in the middle of a corn field -- when the
city slickers undoubtedly had several high schools in their city
limits!

Amazing arrogance, them.

[How big was YOUR home town?]

> Low population density is the natural protection from the virus. There
> are counties in California that have had zero covid deaths so far, so
> people are not panicked to get vaccinated there. Half the deaths in CA
> have been in three counties in the south.

No. Population density is only a small part of it. Go to worship and
raise your voices in song -- then drive 100 miles out to the boonies
and you're just as likely to get sick.
>
>

On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:12:03 AM UTC-4, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:

It's a mini-pandemic among the unvaccinated, which means, in the advanced countries with plenty of vaccine availability, it is of absolutely no concern whatsoever.

On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 09:37:51 -0700, Don Y
<blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:

>On 7/15/2021 7:15 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>> On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 04:05:46 -0700, Don Y
>> <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:
>>
>>> On 7/15/2021 2:45 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>> I expect it varies a lot from state to state but what are the typical US
>>>> vaccination rates in populous coastal states like California?
>>>> (and for comparison in a populous red state like say Texas)
>>>
>>> Vaccination rates are only part of the story. Different sections
>>> of the population (age, political affiliation) exhibit different
>>> vaccination rates.
>>>
>>> The oldest have the highest vaccination rates -- they, no doubt, learned
>>>from (bad!) experience! ~76% of the over 65 crowd are fully vaccinated
>>> with 85% having received at least one jab. The percentages drop by about 10%
>>> for each ~10 years of decreasing age. The 12-15 year-olds seeing 22% fully
>>> and 30% one-shot.
>>>
>>> The Blue states have higher overall vaccination rates; the Red states
>>> are being fed a steady diet of misinformation (in the hope of killing them
>>> off?). For example, New England (largely Blue) has vaccination rates of
>>> ~60+% fully and ~70% one-shot.
>>>
>>> By contrast, the "red heart" of the country tends to be closer to 35-40 fully
>>> and 50% one-shot. Alabama -- known for its great thinkers -- is at 33% & 40%.
>>> Another source of rocket scientists -- Mississippi -- has them "beat" at
>>> 33% and 37%.
>>
>> It's amazing the contempt urban types have for people they have
>> probably never met... the people who keep them defended and warm and
>> fed. If my car were broken down in a storm on a lonely road, I'd sure
>> rather that the next vehicle had Mississippi plates than New Jersey.
>
>Yes, isn't it! Having grown up in a town of *2,000*, those "city slickers"
>sure can be arrogant! Having 4 towns pool their student bodies to
>populate a single high school -- in the middle of a corn field -- when the
>city slickers undoubtedly had several high schools in their city
>limits!
>
>Amazing arrogance, them.

Yes. The big-city snobs could shut down the stock brokerages and the
law offices, and the dumb rednecks could shut off the oil and gas and
electricity and food, and see who complains first.
>
>[How big was YOUR home town?]

New Orleans, several hundred K when I was a free-range kid. But we
spent time in Mississippi and Alabama and Florida and Texas and
small-town Louisiana. I liked the people in those places.

>
>> Low population density is the natural protection from the virus. There
>> are counties in California that have had zero covid deaths so far, so
>> people are not panicked to get vaccinated there. Half the deaths in CA
>> have been in three counties in the south.
>
>No. Population density is only a small part of it. Go to worship and
>raise your voices in song -- then drive 100 miles out to the boonies
>and you're just as likely to get sick.

There are many rural counties with zero covid deaths so far. Not much
masking or panicking there.

On 7/15/2021 11:25 AM, John Larkin wrote:
> On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 09:37:51 -0700, Don Y
> <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:
>
>> On 7/15/2021 7:15 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>> On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 04:05:46 -0700, Don Y
>>> <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 7/15/2021 2:45 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>>> I expect it varies a lot from state to state but what are the typical US
>>>>> vaccination rates in populous coastal states like California?
>>>>> (and for comparison in a populous red state like say Texas)
>>>>
>>>> Vaccination rates are only part of the story. Different sections
>>>> of the population (age, political affiliation) exhibit different
>>>> vaccination rates.
>>>>
>>>> The oldest have the highest vaccination rates -- they, no doubt, learned
>>> >from (bad!) experience! ~76% of the over 65 crowd are fully vaccinated
>>>> with 85% having received at least one jab. The percentages drop by about 10%
>>>> for each ~10 years of decreasing age. The 12-15 year-olds seeing 22% fully
>>>> and 30% one-shot.
>>>>
>>>> The Blue states have higher overall vaccination rates; the Red states
>>>> are being fed a steady diet of misinformation (in the hope of killing them
>>>> off?). For example, New England (largely Blue) has vaccination rates of
>>>> ~60+% fully and ~70% one-shot.
>>>>
>>>> By contrast, the "red heart" of the country tends to be closer to 35-40 fully
>>>> and 50% one-shot. Alabama -- known for its great thinkers -- is at 33% & 40%.
>>>> Another source of rocket scientists -- Mississippi -- has them "beat" at
>>>> 33% and 37%.
>>>
>>> It's amazing the contempt urban types have for people they have
>>> probably never met... the people who keep them defended and warm and
>>> fed. If my car were broken down in a storm on a lonely road, I'd sure
>>> rather that the next vehicle had Mississippi plates than New Jersey.
>>
>> Yes, isn't it! Having grown up in a town of *2,000*, those "city slickers"
>> sure can be arrogant! Having 4 towns pool their student bodies to
>> populate a single high school -- in the middle of a corn field -- when the
>> city slickers undoubtedly had several high schools in their city
>> limits!
>>
>> Amazing arrogance, them.
>
> Yes. The big-city snobs could shut down the stock brokerages and the
> law offices, and the dumb rednecks could shut off the oil and gas and
> electricity and food, and see who complains first.

They could effectively also stop the flow of money by shuttering the
banks, etc. Wanna stay open and do business? Great! How much *cash*
do you have on hand??

The city slickers could also shut down the hospitals, clinics, etc.
No hospital in my home town. Hell, the police department was a
*house* that had been donated to the town; walk in the front door
to what was obviously someone's living room! Library was another
donated house -- with the reference section right by the living room
fireplace. Ditto for town hall (the post office being a coat room
*in* town hall).

I had to take an ambulance ride to the hospital, as a child.
A regular old station wagon that the police department owned...
with the back seat folded down so the stretcher would fit
(don't lift your head as it will hit the headliner!)

How many beds do they have in podunk, iowa? How many healthcare
professionals? How many ventilators? Where do they get their
medical supplies -- Bog Hollow?

How many facilities to manufacture vaccines?

Ooops!

>> [How big was YOUR home town?]
>
> New Orleans, several hundred K when I was a free-range kid. But we

Ah, so you're one of those "city slicker snobs"!

> spent time in Mississippi and Alabama and Florida and Texas and
> small-town Louisiana. I liked the people in those places.

And I spent timne in Chicago, Boston, NYC, Denver, etc. I liked the people
in THOSE places.

>>> Low population density is the natural protection from the virus. There
>>> are counties in California that have had zero covid deaths so far, so
>>> people are not panicked to get vaccinated there. Half the deaths in CA
>>> have been in three counties in the south.
>>
>> No. Population density is only a small part of it. Go to worship and
>> raise your voices in song -- then drive 100 miles out to the boonies
>> and you're just as likely to get sick.
>
> There are many rural counties with zero covid deaths so far. Not much
> masking or panicking there.

Not many hospital beds, either.

My other half's sister lives in Idaho. Amazing to see how the casual
attitude early in the pandemic (when population centers were seeing
the biggest hits) has now turned to *fear* ("The nearest hospital is
an hour drive -- and is almost at capacity!")

Yup. The red parts of the country will bear the brunt of this next
wave. But, hey, their rugged individualists, right?

On 7/15/2021 10:07 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:12:03 AM UTC-4, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com
> wrote:
>
> It's a mini-pandemic among the unvaccinated, which means, in the advanced
> countries with plenty of vaccine availability, it is of absolutely no
> concern whatsoever.

That *might* be true if there were no breakthrough cases *and* if those
infected didn't "breed" new variants.

Otherwise, the selfishness and ignorance of The Unwashed will spill over
to folks who *know* better!

On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:25:58 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

> There are many rural counties with zero covid deaths so far. Not much
> masking or panicking there.

Those counties might be insulated, and insular, but masking is a PRECAUTION
and it works well with 'zero covid deaths so far'. Failure to take precautions
is a bad life strategy.

On Friday, July 16, 2021 at 3:07:24 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:12:03 AM UTC-4, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> It's a mini-pandemic among the unvaccinated, which means, in the advanced countries with plenty of vaccine availability, it is of absolutely no concern whatsoever.

There's nothing "mini" about 5 million active cases. If you want more infectious variants, having a lot of people infected is exactly how you get them.

Some of those variants may evade the existing vaccines to some extent, which makes them a concern for the vaccinated.

Fred Bloggs seems to be aware of the facts, but he's week on their implications.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 13:14:24 -0700, Don Y
<blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:

>On 7/15/2021 11:25 AM, John Larkin wrote:
>> On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 09:37:51 -0700, Don Y
>> <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:
>>
>>> On 7/15/2021 7:15 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>>> On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 04:05:46 -0700, Don Y
>>>> <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 7/15/2021 2:45 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>>>> I expect it varies a lot from state to state but what are the typical US
>>>>>> vaccination rates in populous coastal states like California?
>>>>>> (and for comparison in a populous red state like say Texas)
>>>>>
>>>>> Vaccination rates are only part of the story. Different sections
>>>>> of the population (age, political affiliation) exhibit different
>>>>> vaccination rates.
>>>>>
>>>>> The oldest have the highest vaccination rates -- they, no doubt, learned
>>>> >from (bad!) experience! ~76% of the over 65 crowd are fully vaccinated
>>>>> with 85% having received at least one jab. The percentages drop by about 10%
>>>>> for each ~10 years of decreasing age. The 12-15 year-olds seeing 22% fully
>>>>> and 30% one-shot.
>>>>>
>>>>> The Blue states have higher overall vaccination rates; the Red states
>>>>> are being fed a steady diet of misinformation (in the hope of killing them
>>>>> off?). For example, New England (largely Blue) has vaccination rates of
>>>>> ~60+% fully and ~70% one-shot.
>>>>>
>>>>> By contrast, the "red heart" of the country tends to be closer to 35-40 fully
>>>>> and 50% one-shot. Alabama -- known for its great thinkers -- is at 33% & 40%.
>>>>> Another source of rocket scientists -- Mississippi -- has them "beat" at
>>>>> 33% and 37%.
>>>>
>>>> It's amazing the contempt urban types have for people they have
>>>> probably never met... the people who keep them defended and warm and
>>>> fed. If my car were broken down in a storm on a lonely road, I'd sure
>>>> rather that the next vehicle had Mississippi plates than New Jersey.
>>>
>>> Yes, isn't it! Having grown up in a town of *2,000*, those "city slickers"
>>> sure can be arrogant! Having 4 towns pool their student bodies to
>>> populate a single high school -- in the middle of a corn field -- when the
>>> city slickers undoubtedly had several high schools in their city
>>> limits!
>>>
>>> Amazing arrogance, them.
>>
>> Yes. The big-city snobs could shut down the stock brokerages and the
>> law offices, and the dumb rednecks could shut off the oil and gas and
>> electricity and food, and see who complains first.
>
>They could effectively also stop the flow of money by shuttering the
>banks, etc.

They would be eating one another first. And banks don't work well
without electricity. And food.

Wanna stay open and do business? Great! How much *cash*
>do you have on hand??
>
>The city slickers could also shut down the hospitals, clinics, etc.
>No hospital in my home town. Hell, the police department was a
>*house* that had been donated to the town; walk in the front door
>to what was obviously someone's living room! Library was another
>donated house -- with the reference section right by the living room
>fireplace. Ditto for town hall (the post office being a coat room
>*in* town hall).
>
>I had to take an ambulance ride to the hospital, as a child.
>A regular old station wagon that the police department owned...
>with the back seat folded down so the stretcher would fit
>(don't lift your head as it will hit the headliner!)
>
>How many beds do they have in podunk, iowa? How many healthcare
>professionals? How many ventilators? Where do they get their
>medical supplies -- Bog Hollow?

How many farms and oil refineries do they have in New York City?

>
>How many facilities to manufacture vaccines?
>
>Ooops!
>
>>> [How big was YOUR home town?]
>>
>> New Orleans, several hundred K when I was a free-range kid. But we
>
>Ah, so you're one of those "city slicker snobs"!
>
>> spent time in Mississippi and Alabama and Florida and Texas and
>> small-town Louisiana. I liked the people in those places.
>
>And I spent timne in Chicago, Boston, NYC, Denver, etc. I liked the people
>in THOSE places.
>
>>>> Low population density is the natural protection from the virus. There
>>>> are counties in California that have had zero covid deaths so far, so
>>>> people are not panicked to get vaccinated there. Half the deaths in CA
>>>> have been in three counties in the south.
>>>
>>> No. Population density is only a small part of it. Go to worship and
>>> raise your voices in song -- then drive 100 miles out to the boonies
>>> and you're just as likely to get sick.
>>
>> There are many rural counties with zero covid deaths so far. Not much
>> masking or panicking there.
>
>Not many hospital beds, either.

Of course not. They don't need many. They just don't have enough
shootings and drug overdoses and STDs to keep a bunch of big medical
centers open.

>
>My other half's sister lives in Idaho. Amazing to see how the casual
>attitude early in the pandemic (when population centers were seeing
>the biggest hits) has now turned to *fear* ("The nearest hospital is
>an hour drive -- and is almost at capacity!")
>
>Yup. The red parts of the country will bear the brunt of this next
>wave. But, hey, their rugged individualists, right?

Some states have 1/4 the integrated PPM deaths of the big NE ones, and
are not showing big upticks. Some counties have had zero deaths. Sorry
to disappoint.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

On 7/15/2021 7:25 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 13:14:24 -0700, Don Y
> <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:
>
>>> Yes. The big-city snobs could shut down the stock brokerages and the
>>> law offices, and the dumb rednecks could shut off the oil and gas and
>>> electricity and food, and see who complains first.
>>
>> They could effectively also stop the flow of money by shuttering the
>> banks, etc.
>
> They would be eating one another first. And banks don't work well
> without electricity. And food.

And how do you think they're going to keep the electricity on?
Do they have a natural gas well on site? Do they have the "smarts"
to control the pipelines that bring those fuels *to* the power plants?

Look back 200 years to what an agrarian society was able to do -- they
created an INDUSTRIAL society (cuz agrarian wasn't working too well
now, was it?)

Yup. You should move out of that nasty city and take up residence in your
cabin. I'm sure you can learn to hunt big game, dress the meat, tan the hides
and design electronics on an abacus! "Act now! Choice lots are still
available!"

> Wanna stay open and do business? Great! How much *cash*
>> do you have on hand??
>>
>> The city slickers could also shut down the hospitals, clinics, etc.
>> No hospital in my home town. Hell, the police department was a
>> *house* that had been donated to the town; walk in the front door
>> to what was obviously someone's living room! Library was another
>> donated house -- with the reference section right by the living room
>> fireplace. Ditto for town hall (the post office being a coat room
>> *in* town hall).
>>
>> I had to take an ambulance ride to the hospital, as a child.
>> A regular old station wagon that the police department owned...
>> with the back seat folded down so the stretcher would fit
>> (don't lift your head as it will hit the headliner!)
>>
>> How many beds do they have in podunk, iowa? How many healthcare
>> professionals? How many ventilators? Where do they get their
>> medical supplies -- Bog Hollow?
>
> How many farms and oil refineries do they have in New York City?

How many of those farms and oil refineries can exist without
all the infrastructure that those "big cities" make possible?

"Hey, Jethro... I got 25 acres of asparagus. The wife 'n kids
are getting tarred of asparagus soup, broiled asparagus, asparagus
tea, asparagus pie, etc. Wanna trade?"

"Sorry, BillyBob; ah planted asparagus this year, too!"

>>>>> Low population density is the natural protection from the virus. There
>>>>> are counties in California that have had zero covid deaths so far, so
>>>>> people are not panicked to get vaccinated there. Half the deaths in CA
>>>>> have been in three counties in the south.
>>>>
>>>> No. Population density is only a small part of it. Go to worship and
>>>> raise your voices in song -- then drive 100 miles out to the boonies
>>>> and you're just as likely to get sick.
>>>
>>> There are many rural counties with zero covid deaths so far. Not much
>>> masking or panicking there.
>>
>> Not many hospital beds, either.
>
> Of course not. They don't need many. They just don't have enough
> shootings and drug overdoses and STDs to keep a bunch of big medical
> centers open.

They don't need many for *normal* situations. When Jethro *and his family*
all come down with Covid, do they bring in BUNK beds?

<https://powdersvillepost.com/rise-in-covid-19-cases-leave-rural-hospitals-overcrowded/>

"The Dumas hospital in North Texas can handle about 11 patients and about 3 ICU
units. However, they are not having enough life-saving therapies and they
have to depend on large hospitals in nearby districts in this situation.

The situation is so bad that the staff often look for hospital space
about 500 miles away in Kansas City when the beds are full. The nearby
regions with big hospitals include Midland, Lubbock, Dallas, Denver and
Oklahoma City."

Sure seems like they are relying on big city facilities. "Sorry, folks,
the big cities are shut down..."

<https://fullmeasure.news/news/shows/rural-hospitals>

"We've seen many reports of hospitals packed with Covid-19 patients. But the
same pandemic that's overcrowded city hospitals has had the opposite impact
on medical facilities in the countryside. Joce Sterman reports it's putting
many of them on the brink of financial disaster."

"According to research from the University of North Carolina, 129 rural
hospitals in the U.S. have closed since 2010. 18 closed last year alone"

Yup. I guess "keeping the electricity on" and "running the farms" isn't
helping in East Bumphuck!

<https://thelastmile.gotennapro.com/how-mesh-networks-can-keep-rural-hospitals-from-overcrowding-during-covid/>

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has created a number of difficult and unique
challenges for healthcare providers and hospitals – and few have been as
impacted from an operations and financial perspective as rural hospitals in
remote areas.

In addition to the financial impact of losing 30 percent or more of the
outpatient procedures that keep rural hospitals financially viable, there
has been a host of equipment, staffing and other challenges that rural
hospitals have had to contend with. Not least among these is overcrowding
from the pandemic that is exasperated by staff shortages."

But! The good news is, they can *eat*, tonight! Asparagus Stew!!

>> My other half's sister lives in Idaho. Amazing to see how the casual
>> attitude early in the pandemic (when population centers were seeing
>> the biggest hits) has now turned to *fear* ("The nearest hospital is
>> an hour drive -- and is almost at capacity!")
>>
>> Yup. The red parts of the country will bear the brunt of this next
>> wave. But, hey, their rugged individualists, right?
>
> Some states have 1/4 the integrated PPM deaths of the big NE ones, and
> are not showing big upticks. Some counties have had zero deaths. Sorry
> to disappoint.

Yeah, missouri, florida, texas, nevada, mississippi... all doing really fine!

I notice you aren't too keen to stray from the conveniences afforded by big
city living! Aren't you afraid you'll run out of food? Or, that the lights
will go out?

Everyone knows that you get the absolute BEST meidal care in Twin Armpits,
Missouri! That's why it's such a highly DEVELOPED area (not!)

The fat lady hasn't sung, yet. Let's see where the next areas are that will
feel the effects of covid.

On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:25:20 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> Some states have 1/4 the integrated PPM deaths of the big NE ones, and
> are not showing big upticks. Some counties have had zero deaths. Sorry
> to disappoint.

I remember watching pandemic maps and noticing one county in SW Georgia with high death rates and surrounding counties with virtually zero death rates or even infections. I thought that one county must be doing something very wrong. Then I realized the surrounding counties had no hospitals. When you got sick in those counties they took you to the central county or another one with a hospital. So the counties with hospitals in rural areas get an undeserved death rate while others get none.

Quoting statistics is not the same as understanding them.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On 15/07/2021 18:07, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:12:03 AM UTC-4, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> It's a mini-pandemic among the unvaccinated, which means, in the advanced countries with plenty of vaccine availability, it is of absolutely no concern whatsoever.

Believe that if you want but you will be in for a nasty surprise.

Watch very carefully what happens in the UK next week when we totally
unlock to see how many people we can infect and how quickly.

Daily exponential growth is presently x1.05 and there is every prospect
of it going much higher. The hottest place in the UK has 80% first dose
and 66% second dose vaccination but it is a very poor region.

Affluence matters much more for Covid outcome than the simplistic models
allow for. This is pretty much now a cull of the poor and vulnerable.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On 16/07/21 05:13, Rick C wrote:
> On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:25:20 PM UTC-4,
> jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>> Some states have 1/4 the integrated PPM deaths of the big NE ones, and are
>> not showing big upticks. Some counties have had zero deaths. Sorry to
>> disappoint.
>
> I remember watching pandemic maps and noticing one county in SW Georgia with
> high death rates and surrounding counties with virtually zero death rates or
> even infections. I thought that one county must be doing something very
> wrong. Then I realized the surrounding counties had no hospitals. When you
> got sick in those counties they took you to the central county or another one
> with a hospital. So the counties with hospitals in rural areas get an
> undeserved death rate while others get none.
>
> Quoting statistics is not the same as understanding them.

Just so.

Drunks and lamposts, and all that!

On Friday, July 16, 2021 at 5:23:00 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
> On 16/07/21 05:13, Rick C wrote:
> > On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:25:20 PM UTC-4,
> > jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> >> Some states have 1/4 the integrated PPM deaths of the big NE ones, and are
> >> not showing big upticks. Some counties have had zero deaths. Sorry to
> >> disappoint.
> >
> > I remember watching pandemic maps and noticing one county in SW Georgia with
> > high death rates and surrounding counties with virtually zero death rates or
> > even infections. I thought that one county must be doing something very
> > wrong. Then I realized the surrounding counties had no hospitals. When you
> > got sick in those counties they took you to the central county or another one
> > with a hospital. So the counties with hospitals in rural areas get an
> > undeserved death rate while others get none.
> >
> > Quoting statistics is not the same as understanding them.
> Just so.
>
> Drunks and lamposts, and all that!

Anyone recall what website that was which would let you view a map with data by state or county and used two different data bases. I haven't looked at it in a while and can't find the link. I think this is going to be important again as the delta variant driven wave kicks into high gear.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Friday, July 16, 2021 at 5:32:07 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Friday, July 16, 2021 at 5:23:00 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
> > On 16/07/21 05:13, Rick C wrote:
> > > On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:25:20 PM UTC-4,
> > > jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> > >> Some states have 1/4 the integrated PPM deaths of the big NE ones, and are
> > >> not showing big upticks. Some counties have had zero deaths. Sorry to
> > >> disappoint.
> > >
> > > I remember watching pandemic maps and noticing one county in SW Georgia with
> > > high death rates and surrounding counties with virtually zero death rates or
> > > even infections. I thought that one county must be doing something very
> > > wrong. Then I realized the surrounding counties had no hospitals. When you
> > > got sick in those counties they took you to the central county or another one
> > > with a hospital. So the counties with hospitals in rural areas get an
> > > undeserved death rate while others get none.
> > >
> > > Quoting statistics is not the same as understanding them.
> > Just so.
> >
> > Drunks and lamposts, and all that!
> Anyone recall what website that was which would let you view a map with data by state or county and used two different data bases. I haven't looked at it in a while and can't find the link. I think this is going to be important again as the delta variant driven wave kicks into high gear.

You mean like this for VietNam:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/

The communist country should be bragging about the 3000 daily new cases yesterday. 3000 people are forced to be alive with covid.

On Fri, 16 Jul 2021 10:22:54 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

>On 16/07/21 05:13, Rick C wrote:
>> On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:25:20 PM UTC-4,
>> jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>> Some states have 1/4 the integrated PPM deaths of the big NE ones, and are
>>> not showing big upticks. Some counties have had zero deaths. Sorry to
>>> disappoint.
>>
>> I remember watching pandemic maps and noticing one county in SW Georgia with
>> high death rates and surrounding counties with virtually zero death rates or
>> even infections. I thought that one county must be doing something very
>> wrong. Then I realized the surrounding counties had no hospitals. When you
>> got sick in those counties they took you to the central county or another one
>> with a hospital. So the counties with hospitals in rural areas get an
>> undeserved death rate while others get none.
>>
>> Quoting statistics is not the same as understanding them.
>
>Just so.
>
>Drunks and lamposts, and all that!

Do Utah, Alaska, and Hawaii have no hospitals? All are below 1000 PPM
dead.

San Francisco is packed with hospitals, major medical centers all
over. Total deaths per capita is about 640 PPM now.

Deaths vs hospital density looks like a weak metric. Deaths over
population density seems real, but even that has strange exceptions.

Looks like there is a good correlation between deaths and average
income, at least in the USA. That even shows up in San Francisco
neighborhoods. Maybe the key factor is square feet of living and work
space per person. And cool fresh air. Maybe a correlation between
death rates and mean wind velocity?

Anyhow, the huge regional variations don't seem to be very well
explained.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

On Fri, 16 Jul 2021 07:16:26 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

>On Fri, 16 Jul 2021 10:22:54 +0100, Tom Gardner
><spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
>
>>On 16/07/21 05:13, Rick C wrote:
>>> On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:25:20 PM UTC-4,
>>> jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>>> Some states have 1/4 the integrated PPM deaths of the big NE ones, and are
>>>> not showing big upticks. Some counties have had zero deaths. Sorry to
>>>> disappoint.
>>>
>>> I remember watching pandemic maps and noticing one county in SW Georgia with
>>> high death rates and surrounding counties with virtually zero death rates or
>>> even infections. I thought that one county must be doing something very
>>> wrong. Then I realized the surrounding counties had no hospitals. When you
>>> got sick in those counties they took you to the central county or another one
>>> with a hospital. So the counties with hospitals in rural areas get an
>>> undeserved death rate while others get none.
>>>
>>> Quoting statistics is not the same as understanding them.
>>
>>Just so.
>>
>>Drunks and lamposts, and all that!
>
>Do Utah, Alaska, and Hawaii have no hospitals? All are below 1000 PPM
>dead.
>
>San Francisco is packed with hospitals, major medical centers all
>over. Total deaths per capita is about 640 PPM now.
>
>Deaths vs hospital density looks like a weak metric. Deaths over
>population density seems real, but even that has strange exceptions.
>
>Looks like there is a good correlation between deaths and average
>income, at least in the USA. That even shows up in San Francisco
>neighborhoods. Maybe the key factor is square feet of living and work
>space per person. And cool fresh air. Maybe a correlation between
>death rates and mean wind velocity?

Seems so.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7402279/

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3603380

It's pretty windy here, less so in the part of town with high covid
rates.

Maybe the virus travels long distances horizontally. A lot of wind
will generate vertical mixing, especially around a lot of buildings.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 18:55:10 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

>On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:25:58 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
>
>> There are many rural counties with zero covid deaths so far. Not much
>> masking or panicking there.
>
>Those counties might be insulated, and insular, but masking is a PRECAUTION
>and it works well with 'zero covid deaths so far'. Failure to take precautions
>is a bad life strategy.

Why take precautions against a zero risk? Build meteor shelters? Buy
insurance against shark attacks in Utah?

Really, thinking is better than fear in most cases.

I suppose 0 * e^0 is still exponential growth.

On 7/16/2021 9:51 AM, John Larkin wrote:
> On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 18:55:10 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> On Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:25:58 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
>>
>>> There are many rural counties with zero covid deaths so far. Not much
>>> masking or panicking there.
>>
>> Those counties might be insulated, and insular, but masking is a PRECAUTION
>> and it works well with 'zero covid deaths so far'. Failure to take precautions
>> is a bad life strategy.
>
> Why take precautions against a zero risk? Build meteor shelters? Buy
> insurance against shark attacks in Utah?

I guess you don't recall folks building bomb shelters during the cold war?
Clearly a COSTLY precaution -- and one that "persists" long after your
decision to build it!

Imagine how *chagrined* all those people were to discover that the
US (homeland) was never attacked -- all that time/effort/money for
a "useless" facility! ON THEIR OWN PROPERTY!

> Really, thinking is better than fear in most cases.

No, thinking teaches you how to calibrate your fear. I have very
little concern for catching HIV/AIDS. Or, herpes. Or other such.
But, that's because I've calibrated my behavior(s) to minimize
that risk -- based on my "fear" of encountering them. My ACTUAL
fear is thus minimized along with a rational assessment of the risk.

I similarly avoid being out, driving, on New Year's Eve. There's
scant little that I'd *need* to be on the road for at that time.
A rational assessment of the increased probability of encountering an
impaired driver (i.e., fear of a "bad experience") lets me adjust
behavior to minimize/eliminate that fear.

Fear *motivates* thinking about risks. If you're not afraid of falling
out of an aircraft, you'd likely NOT bother strapping on a parachute
before heading out the door!

> I suppose 0 * e^0 is still exponential growth.

How many decimals do you KNOW that to be "zero"?