The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
term will derive from that.

Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.

Just a thought.

Sylvia.

On 7/27/2021 4:53 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:
> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain out of
> China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant, so the most
> likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near term will derive from
> that.
>
> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against serious
> illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the immune system
> with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.

Possibly -- if that future mutation resembles the delta variant
"significantly".

OTOH, there are other variants that the vaccine trained on Alpha
seems to fare differently.

Remember, it's not just about getting your body to *recognize* it
but, also, to be able to mount an effective defense. One doesn't
imply the other.

On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <sylvia@email.invalid>
wrote:

>The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
>out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
>so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
>term will derive from that.
>
>Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
>serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
>immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
>
>Just a thought.
>
>Sylvia.

I suspect that an exposure to a small number of deltas, without a
raging infection, won't affect one's immune system.

Having a semi-serious delta bout might be a sort of vaccine.

I wonder how protective a delta infection is against the original
strain.

On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <sylvia@email.invalid>
wrote:

>The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
>out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
>so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
>term will derive from that.
>
>Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
>serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
>immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
>
>Just a thought.
>
>Sylvia.

The mass vaccination hubs have long queues, so seems most are trying
to do the right thing, there is a percentage point of persons having
been vaccinated where this virus will burn out, become extinct.
>
--
Petzl
Good lawyers know the law
Great lawyers know the judge

On 28-Jul-21 10:50 am, Petzl wrote:
> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <sylvia@email.invalid>
> wrote:
>
>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
>> term will derive from that.
>>
>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
>>
>> Just a thought.
>>
>> Sylvia.
>
> The mass vaccination hubs have long queues, so seems most are trying
> to do the right thing, there is a percentage point of persons having
> been vaccinated where this virus will burn out, become extinct.
>>

That hasn't happened to influenza.

With a concerted effort to vaccinate the entire world against covid-19,
we might achieve extinction. Otherwise, we'll constantly be dealing with
new variants. The vaccine producers probably quite like that idea - they
can make booster shots for ever more. Governments should take a
different view, but I see little evidence of it.

Sylvia.

On 28/07/2021 10:50 am, Petzl wrote:
> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <sylvia@email.invalid>
> wrote:
>
>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
>> term will derive from that.
>>
>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
>>
>> Just a thought.
>>
>> Sylvia.
>
> The mass vaccination hubs have long queues, so seems most are trying
> to do the right thing, there is a percentage point of persons having
> been vaccinated where this virus will burn out, become extinct.

Like the influenza virus?

On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 10:50:56 AM UTC+10, Petzl wrote:
> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid>
> wrote:
> >The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
> >out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
> >so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
> >term will derive from that.
> >
> >Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
> >serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
> >immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
> >
> >Just a thought.

Not a good one. If the immune system gets exposed to enough of the Delta strain, it could create new antibodies (and new killer T-cells) that were active against it.

It's not going to learn anything about future mutations.

> The mass vaccination hubs have long queues, so seems most are trying
> to do the right thing, there is a percentage point of persons having
> been vaccinated where this virus will burn out, become extinct.

The virus doesn't burn out. It becomes extinct when nobody - anywhere - is infected with it. That hasn't got anything to do with virus, and everything to do with the immune systems - and isolation strategies of the populations - it might infect. Since Covid-19 (or something very like it) seems to do well in pangolins, it might be difficult to get there.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 28-Jul-21 12:12 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 10:50:56 AM UTC+10, Petzl wrote:
>> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid>
>> wrote:
>>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
>>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
>>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
>>> term will derive from that.
>>>
>>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
>>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
>>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
>>>
>>> Just a thought.
>
> Not a good one. If the immune system gets exposed to enough of the Delta strain, it could create new antibodies (and new killer T-cells) that were active against it.

> It's not going to learn anything about future mutations.

The antibodies are against bits of protein, not against the sum total of
the virus. As a virus mutates, bits of protein change, and the
antibodies against those bits in the original virus will no longer work.
So mutations progressively render antibodies ineffective.

Expose the immune system to a more recent variant, being an ancestor of
some hypothetical future strain, and the immune systems gets a chance to
produce antibodies against the changed bits of protein. The future
strain will again render some antibodies ineffective, but having learned
from the more recent variant, the immune system will still have more
antibodies that still work.

Sylvia.

On Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 5:37:42 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid>
> wrote:
> >The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
> >out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
> >so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
> >term will derive from that.
> >
> >Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
> >serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
> >immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
> >
> >Just a thought.
> >
> >Sylvia.
> I suspect that an exposure to a small number of deltas, without a
> raging infection, won't affect one's immune system.
>
> Having a semi-serious delta bout might be a sort of vaccine.
>
> I wonder how protective a delta infection is against the original
> strain.

For what's worth, the original strain is non-existence in the US.

Jul 2021 (18273 samples)
__USA____(18273)__26%__28%__26%__33%__29%___3%__67%__26%__0.1%_37%_30%_26%__0%
__USA/NY_(_2526)___5%___6%___5%___5%___7%___2%__92%___5%__0.0%_89%__3%__5%__0%
__USA/NJ_(__319)__28%__28%__29%__59%__30%___1%__69%__28%__0.0%_11%_58%_28%__0%
__USA/PA_(__117)__46%__45%__45%__33%__56%__10%__44%__44%__0.0%_21%_23%_44%__0%
__USA/MI_(___53)__68%__66%__66%__23%__72%___6%__28%__66%__0.0%_11%_17%_66%__0%
__USA/FL_(_1652)__41%__40%__40%__35%__44%___4%__52%__39%__0.2%_21%_31%_38%__0%
__USA/TX_(__982)__32%__33%__33%__54%__37%___4%__61%__32%__0.0%_12%_49%_31%__0%
__USA/AZ_(__667)__17%__21%__18%__28%__19%___0%__80%__17%__0.3%_52%_27%_17%__0%
__USA/NV_(_1223)__16%__16%__16%__77%__16%___0%__83%__15%__0.0%__7%_76%_15%__0%
__USA/WA_(_1035)__29%__28%__28%__39%__33%___6%__65%__28%__0.1%_31%_33%_28%__0%
__USA/CA_(_2239)__19%__22%__19%__55%__23%___4%__75%__18%__0.0%_24%_51%_18%__0%
__/CA-LA_(__123)__13%__26%__13%__29%__15%___2%__80%__13%__0.0%_48%_28%_13%__0%
_________________417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_____A___B___C___D___O
______A=L452R+E484Q_B=E484E+D614G_C=E484Q+D614G_D=L452R+T478K+P681R_O=Original

On 7/27/2021 6:29 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:
> On 28-Jul-21 10:50 am, Petzl wrote:
>> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <sylvia@email.invalid>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
>>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
>>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
>>> term will derive from that.
>>>
>>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
>>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
>>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
>>>
>>> Just a thought.
>>>
>>> Sylvia.
>>
>> The mass vaccination hubs have long queues, so seems most are trying

Where is this? Certainly not in the US!

>> to do the right thing, there is a percentage point of persons having
>> been vaccinated where this virus will burn out, become extinct.
>
> That hasn't happened to influenza.
>
> With a concerted effort to vaccinate the entire world against covid-19, we
> might achieve extinction.

I don't think so.

First, the existing vaccines don't sterilize; they allow breakthrough
infections.

Second, the time required to do this is too long wrt the mutation cycle
of the virus; you'd forever be swatting at a changing target.

> Otherwise, we'll constantly be dealing with new
> variants. The vaccine producers probably quite like that idea - they can make
> booster shots for ever more. Governments should take a different view, but I
> see little evidence of it.

While they might enjoy being able to crank out a new vaccine with little
investment (assuming mRNA fis all future needs), I doubt Pharma is worried
about running out of "market".

There's also the issue that some countries could nationalize those resources.
And, others could put pricing pressure on the COMPETING developers. I.e.,
if a firm expanded capacity significantly, they could get *the* contract
for the vaccines (in a particular market) locking the others out for a
season/mutation cycle. (Pharma wants to *share* markets if they can)

On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:22:09 PM UTC+10, Sylvia Else wrote:
> On 28-Jul-21 12:12 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> > On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 10:50:56 AM UTC+10, Petzl wrote:
> >> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid>
> >> wrote:
> >>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
> >>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
> >>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
> >>> term will derive from that.
> >>>
> >>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
> >>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
> >>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
> >>>
> >>> Just a thought.
> >
> > Not a good one. If the immune system gets exposed to enough of the Delta strain, it could create new antibodies (and new killer T-cells) that were active against it.
>
> > It's not going to learn anything about future mutations.
> The antibodies are against bits of protein, not against the sum total of
> the virus. As a virus mutates, bits of protein change, and the
> antibodies against those bits in the original virus will no longer work.
> So mutations progressively render antibodies ineffective.
>
> Expose the immune system to a more recent variant, being an ancestor of
> some hypothetical future strain, and the immune systems gets a chance to
> produce antibodies against the changed bits of protein. The future
> strain will again render some antibodies ineffective, but having learned
> from the more recent variant, the immune system will still have more
> antibodies that still work.

Tell that to the people who make vaccines against seasonal influenza.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 28-Jul-21 1:54 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:22:09 PM UTC+10, Sylvia Else wrote:
>> On 28-Jul-21 12:12 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
>>> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 10:50:56 AM UTC+10, Petzl wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
>>>>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
>>>>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
>>>>> term will derive from that.
>>>>>
>>>>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
>>>>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
>>>>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
>>>>>
>>>>> Just a thought.
>>>
>>> Not a good one. If the immune system gets exposed to enough of the Delta strain, it could create new antibodies (and new killer T-cells) that were active against it.
>>
>>> It's not going to learn anything about future mutations.
>> The antibodies are against bits of protein, not against the sum total of
>> the virus. As a virus mutates, bits of protein change, and the
>> antibodies against those bits in the original virus will no longer work.
>> So mutations progressively render antibodies ineffective.
>>
>> Expose the immune system to a more recent variant, being an ancestor of
>> some hypothetical future strain, and the immune systems gets a chance to
>> produce antibodies against the changed bits of protein. The future
>> strain will again render some antibodies ineffective, but having learned
>> from the more recent variant, the immune system will still have more
>> antibodies that still work.
>
> Tell that to the people who make vaccines against seasonal influenza.
>

Influenza has a very high mutation rate, and there are already multiple
virulent strains.

That doesn't mean my specific suggestion about the Delta variant and its
offspring is wrong.

Sylvia.

On Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 10:43:08 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
> On 7/27/2021 6:29 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:
> >
> > With a concerted effort to vaccinate the entire world against covid-19, we
> > might achieve extinction.
> I don't think so.
>
> First, the existing vaccines don't sterilize; they allow breakthrough
> infections.

Sterilization is not required, only impacting the infection rate to bring R down below 1.0. Like the human population growth in many first world countries.

> Second, the time required to do this is too long wrt the mutation cycle
> of the virus; you'd forever be swatting at a changing target.

So far the variants' spreading rates are still greatly impacted by the vaccine so no new vaccines are required.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:43:08 PM UTC+10, Don Y wrote:
> On 7/27/2021 6:29 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:
> > On 28-Jul-21 10:50 am, Petzl wrote:
> >> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid>
> >> wrote:
> >>
> >>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
> >>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
> >>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
> >>> term will derive from that.
> >>>
> >>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
> >>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
> >>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
> >>>
> >>> Just a thought.
> >>
> >> The mass vaccination hubs have long queues, so seems most are trying.

Sylvia lives in Australia, and there are certainly long queues at mass vaccination hubs here. We haven't yet got as much Pfizer vaccine as we'd like, but we have got plenty of Astra-Zeneca, which does have a well-publicised risk of giving blood clots to one in 100,000 recipients, which have a 10% chance of killing you.

Now that we've got the Delta variant circulating - even in vary small numbers - it's safer to get the Astra-Zeneca vaccine that it is to wait for Pfizer.

> Where is this? Certainly not in the US!

You've got a lot more vaccine doses to give to anybody with enough sense to want them.

Even your most backward and vaccine-shy states have more people vaccinated than we do, and lots more virus in circulation.

<snip>
> > With a concerted effort to vaccinate the entire world against covid-19, we might achieve extinction.
>
> I don't think so.
>
> First, the existing vaccines don't sterilize; they allow breakthrough infections.

That doesn't matter much, as long as the breakthrough infections don't produce too many new virus particle.
> Second, the time required to do this is too long wrt the mutation cycle of the virus; you'd forever be swatting at a changing target.

The mutation cycle of the virus depends on the number of viral particles out there infecting new victims, because that's the only opportunity the virus has to mutate.

It's not something that happens at fixed intervals.

> > Otherwise, we'll constantly be dealing with new variants.

Not if we get most people vaccinated early in the process, as we should.

> >The vaccine producers probably quite like that idea - they can make booster shots for ever more. Governments should take a different view, but I see little evidence of it.

The booster shots are useful as long as there is virus around making people sick.

> While they might enjoy being able to crank out a new vaccine with little investment (assuming mRNA fis all future needs), I doubt Pharma is worried about running out of "market".

Evolution can be relied on to produce new and different diseases requiring new and different vaccines.
> There's also the issue that some countries could nationalize those resources.

Nationalised industries can work well. The profit motive isn't the only one that works. They are more likely to ossify than competing organisations, but that's a known risk.

> And, others could put pricing pressure on the COMPETING developers. I.e., if a firm expanded capacity significantly, they could get *the* contract for the vaccines (in a particular market) locking the others out for a season/mutation cycle. (Pharma wants to *share* markets if they can).

Free markets always degenerate into monopolies if the largest player is given the chance to squeeze out their competitors. It's a very well known problem, with equally well-know solutions.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:06:28 AM UTC-4, Sylvia Else wrote:
> On 28-Jul-21 1:54 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> > On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:22:09 PM UTC+10, Sylvia Else wrote:
> >> On 28-Jul-21 12:12 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> >>> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 10:50:56 AM UTC+10, Petzl wrote:
> >>>> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid>
> >>>> wrote:
> >>>>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
> >>>>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
> >>>>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
> >>>>> term will derive from that.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
> >>>>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
> >>>>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Just a thought.
> >>>
> >>> Not a good one. If the immune system gets exposed to enough of the Delta strain, it could create new antibodies (and new killer T-cells) that were active against it.
> >>
> >>> It's not going to learn anything about future mutations.
> >> The antibodies are against bits of protein, not against the sum total of
> >> the virus. As a virus mutates, bits of protein change, and the
> >> antibodies against those bits in the original virus will no longer work.
> >> So mutations progressively render antibodies ineffective.
> >>
> >> Expose the immune system to a more recent variant, being an ancestor of
> >> some hypothetical future strain, and the immune systems gets a chance to
> >> produce antibodies against the changed bits of protein. The future
> >> strain will again render some antibodies ineffective, but having learned
> >> from the more recent variant, the immune system will still have more
> >> antibodies that still work.
> >
> > Tell that to the people who make vaccines against seasonal influenza.
> >
> Influenza has a very high mutation rate, and there are already multiple
> virulent strains.
>
> That doesn't mean my specific suggestion about the Delta variant and its
> offspring is wrong.

Your suggestion doesn't have a basis in logic. If I understand what you are suggesting it is based on the idea that the variants each modify the genome a bit and that small variation causes reduced effectiveness in the vaccines which accumulate. So getting the disease from a more recent disease variant gives you a "current" resistance and therefore more immunity.

That is a flawed understanding of the disease and how the vaccines work. The vaccines target separate small fragments of various proteins. Unless the mutations of the variants are in the specific genome of the targeted protein there is no direct impact on the action of the vaccine. Much more likely according to the evidence is that any change in the effectiveness of a vaccine from viral mutations simply happens because the mutation makes the virus more infective in general. It has little to nothing to do with the mutation impacting the targeted protein.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 2:06:28 PM UTC+10, Sylvia Else wrote:
> On 28-Jul-21 1:54 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> > On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:22:09 PM UTC+10, Sylvia Else wrote:
> >> On 28-Jul-21 12:12 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> >>> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 10:50:56 AM UTC+10, Petzl wrote:
> >>>> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid>
> >>>> wrote:
> >>>>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
> >>>>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
> >>>>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
> >>>>> term will derive from that.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
> >>>>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
> >>>>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Just a thought.
> >>>
> >>> Not a good one. If the immune system gets exposed to enough of the Delta strain, it could create new antibodies (and new killer T-cells) that were active against it.
> >>
> >>> It's not going to learn anything about future mutations.
> >> The antibodies are against bits of protein, not against the sum total of
> >> the virus. As a virus mutates, bits of protein change, and the
> >> antibodies against those bits in the original virus will no longer work.
> >> So mutations progressively render antibodies ineffective.
> >>
> >> Expose the immune system to a more recent variant, being an ancestor of
> >> some hypothetical future strain, and the immune systems gets a chance to
> >> produce antibodies against the changed bits of protein. The future
> >> strain will again render some antibodies ineffective, but having learned
> >> from the more recent variant, the immune system will still have more
> >> antibodies that still work.
> >
> > Tell that to the people who make vaccines against seasonal influenza.
> >
> Influenza has a very high mutation rate, and there are already multiple
> virulent strains.
>
> That doesn't mean my specific suggestion about the Delta variant and its offspring is wrong.

It does suggest that it is. Covid19 mutates - if not as frequently as influenza - and the mechanism is exactly the same.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 28-Jul-21 2:19 pm, Rick C wrote:
> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:06:28 AM UTC-4, Sylvia Else wrote:
>> On 28-Jul-21 1:54 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
>>> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:22:09 PM UTC+10, Sylvia Else wrote:
>>>> On 28-Jul-21 12:12 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
>>>>> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 10:50:56 AM UTC+10, Petzl wrote:
>>>>>> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
>>>>>>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
>>>>>>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
>>>>>>> term will derive from that.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
>>>>>>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
>>>>>>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future mutation.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Just a thought.
>>>>>
>>>>> Not a good one. If the immune system gets exposed to enough of the Delta strain, it could create new antibodies (and new killer T-cells) that were active against it.
>>>>
>>>>> It's not going to learn anything about future mutations.
>>>> The antibodies are against bits of protein, not against the sum total of
>>>> the virus. As a virus mutates, bits of protein change, and the
>>>> antibodies against those bits in the original virus will no longer work.
>>>> So mutations progressively render antibodies ineffective.
>>>>
>>>> Expose the immune system to a more recent variant, being an ancestor of
>>>> some hypothetical future strain, and the immune systems gets a chance to
>>>> produce antibodies against the changed bits of protein. The future
>>>> strain will again render some antibodies ineffective, but having learned
>>>> from the more recent variant, the immune system will still have more
>>>> antibodies that still work.
>>>
>>> Tell that to the people who make vaccines against seasonal influenza.
>>>
>> Influenza has a very high mutation rate, and there are already multiple
>> virulent strains.
>>
>> That doesn't mean my specific suggestion about the Delta variant and its
>> offspring is wrong.
>
> Your suggestion doesn't have a basis in logic. If I understand what you are suggesting it is based on the idea that the variants each modify the genome a bit and that small variation causes reduced effectiveness in the vaccines which accumulate. So getting the disease from a more recent disease variant gives you a "current" resistance and therefore more immunity.
>
> That is a flawed understanding of the disease and how the vaccines work. The vaccines target separate small fragments of various proteins. Unless the mutations of the variants are in the specific genome of the targeted protein there is no direct impact on the action of the vaccine. Much more likely according to the evidence is that any change in the effectiveness of a vaccine from viral mutations simply happens because the mutation makes the virus more infective in general. It has little to nothing to do with the mutation impacting the targeted protein.
>

I haven't been able to find support for the idea that the vaccines only
produce small fragments of the various proteins. Indeed, claims that the
spike protein is a toxin (not supported by evidence) have notably not be
countered by statements that only bits of the protein are produced anyway.

The cellular machinery chops up the protein in due course, as it does
with all proteins, and fragments are exposed on the cell surface.

On this basis, any mutations in the virus affecting the spike protein
will affect the effectiveness of those antibodies are were targetting
the part of the protein that has been changed.

Sylvia.

Sylvia Else <sylvia@email.invalid> wrote

> The vaccines we have received were based on the
> original Covid-19 strain out of China. The dominant
> strain around the world is the Delta variant, so the
> most likely mutations that a person will encounter
> in the near term will derive from that.

Not necessarily, the most important mutations
aren't always of the most commonly seen variant.
> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well
> protected against serious illness from the Delta
> variant, exposure to it will provide the immune
> system with a heads up about something closer
> to a future mutation.

That utterly mangles the story all over again.
> Just a thought.

Just another of your steaming turds, actually.

John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote
> Sylvia Else <sylvia@email.invalid> wrote
>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original
>> Covid-19 strain out of China. The dominant strain around the
>> world is the Delta variant, so the most likely mutations that
>> a person will encounter in the near term will derive from that.

>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected
>> against serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to
>> it will provide the immune system with a heads up about
>> something closer to a future mutation.

>> Just a thought.

> I suspect that an exposure to a small number of deltas,

That's much less likely with the delta, it has
a lot higher viral load than the original strain.

> without a raging infection, won't
> affect one's immune system.

But when the viral load is much higher, it will.
> Having a semi-serious delta bout
> might be a sort of vaccine.

That's true of all the strains.
> I wonder how protective a delta infection
> is against the original strain.

No evidence that it isn't. Its only the brazil
strain that has seen much reinfection of
already infected people so far.

And there isn't a lot of the original strain
around now, so its rather academic anyway.

Sylvia Else <sylvia@email.invalid> wrote
> Petzl wrote
>> Sylvia Else <sylvia@email.invalid> wrote

>>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
>>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
>>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
>>> term will derive from that.

>>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
>>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
>>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future
>>> mutation.

>>> Just a thought.

>> The mass vaccination hubs have long queues, so seems most are trying to
>> do the right thing, there is a percentage point of persons having been
>> vaccinated where this virus will burn out, become extinct.

> That hasn't happened to influenza.

Because it mutates a lot faster. But it has with
almost everything else we vaccinate against.

> With a concerted effort to vaccinate the entire world against covid-19, we
> might achieve extinction.

And it might end up not important anymore like the spanish flu did too.

> Otherwise, we'll constantly be dealing with new variants.

You don’t know that either.

> The vaccine producers probably quite like that idea - they can make
> booster shots for ever more.

> Governments should take a different view,

About what ? Most are having a real problem
getting most of their own vaccinated. Vaccinating
the rest of the world has to come later, just like
it did with every other viral vaccination campaign.

> but I see little evidence of it.

Because they are having enough trouble vaccinating their own so far.

On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 2:53:33 PM UTC+10, Sylvia Else wrote:
> On 28-Jul-21 2:19 pm, Rick C wrote:
> > On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:06:28 AM UTC-4, Sylvia Else wrote:
> >> On 28-Jul-21 1:54 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> >>> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:22:09 PM UTC+10, Sylvia Else wrote:
> >>>> On 28-Jul-21 12:12 pm, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> >>>>> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 10:50:56 AM UTC+10, Petzl wrote:
> >>>>>> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid> wrote:

<snip>

> >>>> Expose the immune system to a more recent variant, being an ancestor of
> >>>> some hypothetical future strain, and the immune systems gets a chance to
> >>>> produce antibodies against the changed bits of protein. The future
> >>>> strain will again render some antibodies ineffective, but having learned
> >>>> from the more recent variant, the immune system will still have more
> >>>> antibodies that still work.
> >>>
> >>> Tell that to the people who make vaccines against seasonal influenza.
> >>>
> >> Influenza has a very high mutation rate, and there are already multiple
> >> virulent strains.
> >>
> >> That doesn't mean my specific suggestion about the Delta variant and its
> >> offspring is wrong.
> >
> > Your suggestion doesn't have a basis in logic. If I understand what you are suggesting it is based on the idea that the variants each modify the genome a bit and that small variation causes reduced effectiveness in the vaccines which accumulate. So getting the disease from a more recent disease variant gives you a "current" resistance and therefore more immunity.
> >
> > That is a flawed understanding of the disease and how the vaccines work.. The vaccines target separate small fragments of various proteins.

The vaccine doesn't target anything. It presents the immune system with a chunk of protein, and your immune system reacts to that.

> Unless the mutations of the variants are in the specific genome of the targeted protein there is no direct impact on the action of the vaccine. Much more likely according to the evidence is that any change in the effectiveness of a vaccine from viral mutations simply happens because the mutation makes the virus more infective in general. It has little to nothing to do with the mutation impacting the targeted protein.

Not true. Once the relevant protein mutates enough that immune system no longer recognises it, the vaccine - or rather the immunity it induced - stops working.

> I haven't been able to find support for the idea that the vaccines only produce small fragments of the various proteins.

Not surprising. The idea is total nonsense. Most of the current generation of Covid-19 vaccines get the human body to produce a version of the Covid-19 spike protein - not quite identical to the original, but designed to be a better target for an immune response. This is new technology, and seems to work remarkably well.

> Indeed, claims that the spike protein is a toxin (not supported by evidence) have notably not be countered by statements that only bits of the protein are produced anyway.

Who on earth has claimed that spike protein is a toxin? It plays a vital part in getting the viral RNA payload inside the cells that the virus infects, but it doesn't do anything else. It sounds like something you'd find in a half-witted anti-vaccination rant.
<Snipped more nonsense>
> On this basis, any mutations in the virus affecting the spike protein will affect the effectiveness of those antibodies are were targetting the part of the protein that has been changed.

It might. The antibody recognises the target protein in a way that depends on the kind of antibodies that your particular immune system can produce. And immune systems differ a lot from person to person, and there are suggestions that sexual attraction can depend on detectable differences between the immune systems of the people attracted.

It's a big molecule - the spike protein - mating up with an even bigger molecule - the antibody - and the effectiveness is integrated over all the bits that get to interact.

If you could set up molecular models for the spike protein and the actual antibody you produce, you might be able to work which features on the spike protein matter to your antibodies, but with any lesser amount of information, you haven't got a clue about what might be going on.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 28/07/2021 02:29, Sylvia Else wrote:
> On 28-Jul-21 10:50 am, Petzl wrote:
>> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <sylvia@email.invalid>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> The vaccines we have received were based on the original Covid-19 strain
>>> out of China. The dominant strain around the world is the Delta variant,
>>> so the most likely mutations that a person will encounter in the near
>>> term will derive from that.
>>>
>>> Since a full vaccinated person seems to be well protected against
>>> serious illness from the Delta variant, exposure to it will provide the
>>> immune system with a heads up about something closer to a future
>>> mutation.

Safer to wait for the next booster jab which should be along in the
Autumn and with a better match for the current nasty strains.

>> The mass vaccination hubs have long queues, so seems most are trying
>> to do the right thing, there is a percentage point of persons having
>> been vaccinated where this virus will burn out, become extinct.
>>>
>
> That hasn't happened to influenza.
>
> With a concerted effort to vaccinate the entire world against covid-19,
> we might achieve extinction. Otherwise, we'll constantly be dealing with
> new variants. The vaccine producers probably quite like that idea - they
> can make booster shots for ever more. Governments should take a
> different view, but I see little evidence of it.

There is absolutely no chance of driving it to extinction any more. It
can already infect domestic pets, ferret and mink in addition to humans.

About one sixth of the cats and dogs in homes where the adults have
tested positive for Covid have also tested positive for Covid
antibodies. Recent results suggest it is catholic in what it infects:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57666245

It is never going away.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 7:29:54 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 28/07/2021 02:29, Sylvia Else wrote:
> > On 28-Jul-21 10:50 am, Petzl wrote:
> >> On Wed, 28 Jul 2021 09:53:16 +1000, Sylvia Else <syl...@email.invalid> wrote:

<snip>

> There is absolutely no chance of driving it to extinction any more. It
> can already infect domestic pets, ferret and mink in addition to humans.

So what? Can it create an epidemic in any of these species? There really aren't enough them to keep a world-wide pandemic going, and they don't travel around much either.
> About one sixth of the cats and dogs in homes where the adults have tested positive for Covid have also tested positive for Covid antibodies.

But have they infected anybody? They have to pass it on to sustain an epidemic.

> Recent results suggest it is catholic in what it infects:
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57666245

But as that report says, there's no evidence of pet-to-owner infection.
> It is never going away.

It might not - we still haven't got rid of polio or measles yet - but it is definitely possible with sufficient effort. The US and UK performance in dealing with the epidemic in humans has been woeful so far, but it could improve.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 28/07/2021 14:59, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 7:29:54 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
>> O
>> It is never going away.
>
> It might not - we still haven't got rid of polio or measles yet - but it is definitely possible with sufficient effort. The US and UK performance in dealing with the epidemic in humans has been woeful so far, but it could improve.

Australia isn't doing that well any more. Lockdown against Delta is
insufficient to bring it under control without a very high level of
vaccination in the population and even then it is looking dodgy.

UK might be getting somewhere but I suspect we are just seeing cases
fall because drunken football supporters are no longer hugging each
other so much after England lost in the Euros final at Wembley.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Thursday, July 29, 2021 at 12:07:01 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 28/07/2021 14:59, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> > On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 7:29:54 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
> >> O
> >> It is never going away.
> >
> > It might not - we still haven't got rid of polio or measles yet - but it is definitely possible with sufficient effort. The US and UK performance in dealing with the epidemic in humans has been woeful so far, but it could improve.
>
> Australia isn't doing that well any more.

It's not doing as well a the moment as it has done, but it's still doing a whole lot better than the US and the UK.

> Lockdown against Delta is insufficient to bring it under control without a very high level of vaccination in the population and even then it is looking dodgy.

It seems to have done the trick in the Australian states of Victoria and South Australia. New South Wales has got a problem with three suburbs of Sydney, where the education level isn't high and compliance with the lock-down has been patchy, and we are going to be stuck in lock-down for another month, but the details are being tuned up. There aren't that many infected people running around, but with the delta strain you don't need all that many to keep the epidemic going.

When fifty people go to a funeral (where mourners ought to have been restricted to ten) and forty-five of them get infected, it gets difficult to get the epidemic under control.

> UK might be getting somewhere but I suspect we are just seeing cases fall because drunken football supporters are no longer hugging each other so much after England lost in the Euros final at Wembley.

Perhaps.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney