What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.

I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride.. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.

On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
>
> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.

Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
gravy train in most cases.
--
Andrew Muzi
am@yellowjersey.org
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> > What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
> >
> > I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
> gravy train in most cases.
> --
> Andrew Muzi
> a...@yellowjersey.org
> Open every day since 1 April, 1971
Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.

On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 4:50:22 PM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
>
> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.

Q: What is a fair price for a bike?
A: The price people are willing to pay and the competion allows.

Lou

On 11/11/2023 2:07 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
>>>
>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
>> gravy train in most cases.

> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.

Artisan shop (up to low hundreds per year) $20K~$50K. Modern
automated facility such as Panasonic Osaka, hundreds of
millions of dollars.

--
Andrew Muzi
am@yellowjersey.org
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 12:07:54 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
<cyclintom@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>> > What do you suppose is going through the heads of people
that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing
and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a
bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or
aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super
lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now
building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or
lack of) of steel.
>> >
>> > I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they
can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like
running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike
automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling
over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at
all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic
glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to
friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on
the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal
but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that
manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing
for them.
>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
>> gravy train in most cases.
>> --
>> Andrew Muzi
>> a...@yellowjersey.org
>> Open every day since 1 April, 1971

>Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.

You are forgetting the cost of labour. I read that minimum wages in
California are now $15.50/hour, $124/8 hour day.
Shanghai China the minimum is 24 yuan/hour, 192 yuan/day - about
$26.30, a day and in Thailand it is 354 baht, about $9.90 a day.

And when you add in the U.S., FICA, and other charges it makes an even
greater difference.
--
Cheers,

John B.

John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 12:07:54 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
> <cyclintom@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people
> that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing
> and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a
> bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or
> aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super
> lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now
> building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or
> lack of) of steel.
>>>>
>>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they
> can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like
> running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike
> automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling
> over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at
> all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic
> glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to
> friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on
> the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal
> but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that
> manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing
> for them.

The idea that rim brakes are on par with disk in the wet, is ridiculous
really.

And equally the idea your going to rip out the hydraulic line, I guess it
is possible but well into the improbable, after all MTB well crash fairly
frequently, in unsurprising news they don’t spend there life replacing
pipes and so on.

>>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
>>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
>>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
>>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
>>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
>>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
>>> gravy train in most cases.
>>> --
>>> Andrew Muzi
>>> a...@yellowjersey.org
>>> Open every day since 1 April, 1971
>
>> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which
>> can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.
>
> You are forgetting the cost of labour. I read that minimum wages in
> California are now $15.50/hour, $124/8 hour day.
> Shanghai China the minimum is 24 yuan/hour, 192 yuan/day - about
> $26.30, a day and in Thailand it is 354 baht, about $9.90 a day.
>
> And when you add in the U.S., FICA, and other charges it makes an even
> greater difference.

Roger Merriman

On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 3:35:52 PM UTC-8, Roger Merriman wrote:
> John B. <sloc...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 12:07:54 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
> > <cycl...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
> >>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> >>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people
> > that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing
> > and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a
> > bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or
> > aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super
> > lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now
> > building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or
> > lack of) of steel.
> >>>>
> >>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they
> > can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like
> > running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike
> > automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling
> > over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at
> > all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic
> > glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to
> > friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on
> > the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal
> > but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that
> > manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing
> > for them.
> The idea that rim brakes are on par with disk in the wet, is ridiculous
> really.
>
> And equally the idea your going to rip out the hydraulic line, I guess it
> is possible but well into the improbable, after all MTB well crash fairly
> frequently, in unsurprising news they don’t spend there life replacing
> pipes and so on.
> >>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
> >>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
> >>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
> >>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
> >>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
> >>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
> >>> gravy train in most cases.
> >>> --
> >>> Andrew Muzi
> >>> a...@yellowjersey.org
> >>> Open every day since 1 April, 1971
> >
> >> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which
> >> can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.
> >
> > You are forgetting the cost of labour. I read that minimum wages in
> > California are now $15.50/hour, $124/8 hour day.
> > Shanghai China the minimum is 24 yuan/hour, 192 yuan/day - about
> > $26.30, a day and in Thailand it is 354 baht, about $9.90 a day.
> >
> > And when you add in the U.S., FICA, and other charges it makes an even
> > greater difference.
> Roger Merriman

I didn't say it would be common. I said that it could happen. And perhaps you think that disc brakes are better than rim brakes but when I can lock the brakes in RAIN with either that makes discs look like just another reason to buy a new bike.

On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 14:55:24 -0600, AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:

>On 11/11/2023 2:07 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
>>>>
>>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
>>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
>>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
>>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
>>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
>>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
>>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
>>> gravy train in most cases.
>
>> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.
>
>Artisan shop (up to low hundreds per year) $20K~$50K. Modern
>automated facility such as Panasonic Osaka, hundreds of
>millions of dollars.

Automated machinery is an interesting subject. Years ago I did some
surveys for a U.S. consulting firm and visited the Toyota factory
here. They had just installed a new automated welding machine that
(from memory) welded axle housings into the deferential housing. I
made a comment about how it must be cheaper then employing skilled
welders and they replied, "Yes. And it makes perfect welds every
time".
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 10:01:55 -0600, AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:

>On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
>>
>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
>
>Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
>processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
>for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
>utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
>between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
>over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
>gravy train in most cases.

Years ago I participated in a study of price versus sales. We used a 1
hp outboard motor, commonly used on fishing boats in those days, as
the item and simply varied the price up and down and recorded the
number sold. We found that the maximum sales did not result from the
lowest prices but from a price nearer the mid point of the price
range. It seems that people have a "perceived value" for things and a
much cheaper selling price may be met with the thought "Oh, must be
cheap junk" while a much more expensive price is "Oh! they are trying
to gouge us!"

Now, if a couple of guys with an adding machine can figure that out
I'll bet that a major manufacturing company can too and I'd guess that
an important part of the designing a new product is "expected sales
price", and "Can we make a profit at that price?"
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Sun, 12 Nov 2023 07:07:22 +0700, John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com>
wrote:

>On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 14:55:24 -0600, AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>
>>On 11/11/2023 2:07 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>>>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
>>>>>
>>>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
>>>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
>>>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
>>>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
>>>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
>>>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
>>>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
>>>> gravy train in most cases.
>>
>>> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.
>>
>>Artisan shop (up to low hundreds per year) $20K~$50K. Modern
>>automated facility such as Panasonic Osaka, hundreds of
>>millions of dollars.
>
>Automated machinery is an interesting subject. Years ago I did some
>surveys for a U.S. consulting firm and visited the Toyota factory
>here. They had just installed a new automated welding machine that
>(from memory) welded axle housings into the deferential housing. I
>made a comment about how it must be cheaper then employing skilled
>welders and they replied, "Yes. And it makes perfect welds every
>time".

Automated assembly probably won't work well with $7,500 frames.
Automation works best when all the products are identical. Automation
works badly if every bicycle is a custom frame size, different
configuration, different options, different paint, different decals,
etc. If Tom were buying hundreds of frames or complete bicycles, I
believe automated assembly might be possible but not with one frame.

A good example of this is Dell. You can buy Dell computahs in various
ways. The cheapest is to order one of the "stock" configurations,
which Dell produces by the thousands and sells them in any quantity
from one machine to thousands. Henry Ford described this method
nicely. You can buy any color you want, as long as it's black. It's
the same with Dell computers. You can have any configuration you want
as long as it's one of the Dell "stock" configurations.

For those with money to burn, they can order online almost any
configuration. Almost means that the option has to be available for
Dell to install. The buyer goes to the Dell online ordering page,
selects a base model, and then adds options until he runs out of
money. There are some mutually exclusive options and features, but
Dell's software does a good job of preventing people from ordering
unusable systems. The problem is that these computahs cost more than
the "stock" configurations and take longer to deliver.

If you want to build your own computer, Dell can sell you the case,
boards and options from their repair inventory. Prices are high, but
if you want to build your own Dell computer from parts, it can be
done. Well, maybe. Looks like the SPMD (Spare Parts Master Database)
and PCD (Parts Compatibility Database) are now only for Dell internal
use.

Since Tom likes to buy on eBay and Craigslist, Dell will also sell
refurbished computers:
<https://www.dellrefurbished.com>

I'm not sure what Tom would do with a $7,500 frame at a reduced price.
Will he order a frame in a quantity of one? That would not fit well
with automated assembly. Will he order a custom assembled bicycle in
the style of Dell? If he doesn't like the $7,500 price for the frame,
he also won't like the astronomical price for the completed custom
bicycle. My guess(tm) is he will continue his habit of buying
components on eBay or Craigslist. That will have a low success rate
as demonstrated by the range of problems Tom has experienced.

Good luck.

--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
PO Box 272 http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Ben Lomond CA 95005-0272
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 23:35:48 GMT, Roger Merriman <roger@sarlet.com>
wrote:

>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 12:07:54 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
>> <cyclintom@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>>>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people
>> that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing
>> and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a
>> bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or
>> aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super
>> lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now
>> building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or
>> lack of) of steel.
>>>>>
>>>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they
>> can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like
>> running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike
>> automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling
>> over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at
>> all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic
>> glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to
>> friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on
>> the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal
>> but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that
>> manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing
>> for them.
>
>The idea that rim brakes are on par with disk in the wet, is ridiculous
>really.
>

I'm not so sure about that, if you limit it to "in the wet" as I had a
bike with "V brakes" that would lock either or both wheels coasting
down a hill in the rain. At probably 25 or so kph (I was afraid to
lock up the wheels and skid at a faster speed).

And "on a par" is again a rather nebulas statement. In somewhere
approaching 50 years of riding on a bicycle I can only remember one
really, truly, emergency stop. With rim, probably side pull, brakes I
was in traffic and a taxi stopped in front of me. Cars on both side so
couldn't turn to avoid the taxi. I grabbed the brakes and the rear
wheel came off the ground which scared me even more, I eased up on the
brakes and hit the taxi although at a much slower speed.

Note that I'm being very specific in my comments here. If you want to
go wandering off in the muck and mire then perhaps discs are superior.
I really don't know as I figure that as the Highway Gods have given us
paved roads I'll use them.
--
Cheers,

John B.

John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 23:35:48 GMT, Roger Merriman <roger@sarlet.com>
> wrote:
>
>> John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 12:07:54 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
>>> <cyclintom@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people
>>> that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing
>>> and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a
>>> bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or
>>> aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super
>>> lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now
>>> building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or
>>> lack of) of steel.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they
>>> can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like
>>> running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike
>>> automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling
>>> over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at
>>> all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic
>>> glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to
>>> friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on
>>> the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal
>>> but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that
>>> manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing
>>> for them.
>>
>> The idea that rim brakes are on par with disk in the wet, is ridiculous
>> really.
>>
>
> I'm not so sure about that, if you limit it to "in the wet" as I had a
> bike with "V brakes" that would lock either or both wheels coasting
> down a hill in the rain. At probably 25 or so kph (I was afraid to
> lock up the wheels and skid at a faster speed).
>
The kids locally use there trainers to near lock the rear wheel, down the
local near vertical hill.

I can if if wish (but why?) lock the wheels on the MTB and by that I do
mean lock the wheels not simply slow or reach tip over point.

> And "on a par" is again a rather nebulas statement. In somewhere
> approaching 50 years of riding on a bicycle I can only remember one
> really, truly, emergency stop. With rim, probably side pull, brakes I
> was in traffic and a taxi stopped in front of me. Cars on both side so
> couldn't turn to avoid the taxi. I grabbed the brakes and the rear
> wheel came off the ground which scared me even more, I eased up on the
> brakes and hit the taxi although at a much slower speed.
>
> Note that I'm being very specific in my comments here. If you want to
> go wandering off in the muck and mire then perhaps discs are superior.
> I really don't know as I figure that as the Highway Gods have given us
> paved roads I'll use them.

A awful lot of my riding is on tarmac, even so disks are useful as ever not
needed but a nice want, for the commute it’s a lot easier and less
maintenance, on the gravel bike even on paved roads, fair bit more control
and power, again that’s like rather than need.

Roger Merriman

>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 23:35:48 GMT, Roger Merriman <roger@sarlet.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 12:07:54 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
>>>> <cyclintom@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>>>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people
>>>> that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing
>>>> and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a
>>>> bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or
>>>> aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super
>>>> lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now
>>>> building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or
>>>> lack of) of steel.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they
>>>> can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like
>>>> running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike
>>>> automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling
>>>> over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at
>>>> all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic
>>>> glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to
>>>> friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on
>>>> the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal
>>>> but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that
>>>> manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing
>>>> for them.
>>>
>>> The idea that rim brakes are on par with disk in the wet, is ridiculous
>>> really.
>>>
>>
>> I'm not so sure about that, if you limit it to "in the wet" as I had a
>> bike with "V brakes" that would lock either or both wheels coasting
>> down a hill in the rain. At probably 25 or so kph (I was afraid to
>> lock up the wheels and skid at a faster speed).
>>
>The kids locally use there trainers to near lock the rear wheel, down the
>local near vertical hill.
>
>I can if if wish (but why?) lock the wheels on the MTB and by that I do
>mean lock the wheels not simply slow or reach tip over point.

The point is that if you can stop the wheel from turning you have
applied all the stopping force that the bicycle is capable of
providing and stopping then becomes a matter of the tires and the
pavement. Or the mud I suppose (:-)

>
>> And "on a par" is again a rather nebulas statement. In somewhere
>> approaching 50 years of riding on a bicycle I can only remember one
>> really, truly, emergency stop. With rim, probably side pull, brakes I
>> was in traffic and a taxi stopped in front of me. Cars on both side so
>> couldn't turn to avoid the taxi. I grabbed the brakes and the rear
>> wheel came off the ground which scared me even more, I eased up on the
>> brakes and hit the taxi although at a much slower speed.
>>
>> Note that I'm being very specific in my comments here. If you want to
>> go wandering off in the muck and mire then perhaps discs are superior.
>> I really don't know as I figure that as the Highway Gods have given us
>> paved roads I'll use them.
>
>A awful lot of my riding is on tarmac, even so disks are useful as ever not
>needed but a nice want, for the commute it’s a lot easier and less
>maintenance, on the gravel bike even on paved roads, fair bit more control
>and power, again that’s like rather than need.
>
>Roger Merriman

This "less maintenance" thing is, honestly, rather puzzling. I've been
riding with rim brakes for somewhere in the region of 40 years or
maybe longer and I can't remember ever having and problems with
brakes. Nor, for that matter with bicycles in general, after all they
are a rather simple mechanical device.

As for more control and power? How is it possible to have more power
then stopping the wheel from turning? And control? What does that
mean" You can go down a hill safely? I was going down hills safely
when I was 12 years old with nothing but a rear wheel "coaster"brake.
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 12:59:38 AM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 3:35:52 PM UTC-8, Roger Merriman wrote:
> > John B. <sloc...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 12:07:54 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
> > > <cycl...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > >> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
> > >>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> > >>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people
> > > that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing
> > > and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a
> > > bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or
> > > aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super
> > > lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now
> > > building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or
> > > lack of) of steel.
> > >>>>
> > >>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they
> > > can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like
> > > running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike
> > > automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling
> > > over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at
> > > all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic
> > > glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to
> > > friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on
> > > the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal
> > > but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that
> > > manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing
> > > for them.
> > The idea that rim brakes are on par with disk in the wet, is ridiculous
> > really.
> >
> > And equally the idea your going to rip out the hydraulic line, I guess it
> > is possible but well into the improbable, after all MTB well crash fairly
> > frequently, in unsurprising news they don’t spend there life replacing
> > pipes and so on.
> > >>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
> > >>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
> > >>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
> > >>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
> > >>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
> > >>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
> > >>> gravy train in most cases.
> > >>> --
> > >>> Andrew Muzi
> > >>> a...@yellowjersey.org
> > >>> Open every day since 1 April, 1971
> > >
> > >> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which
> > >> can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.
> > >
> > > You are forgetting the cost of labour. I read that minimum wages in
> > > California are now $15.50/hour, $124/8 hour day.
> > > Shanghai China the minimum is 24 yuan/hour, 192 yuan/day - about
> > > $26.30, a day and in Thailand it is 354 baht, about $9.90 a day.
> > >
> > > And when you add in the U.S., FICA, and other charges it makes an even
> > > greater difference.
> > Roger Merriman
> I didn't say it would be common. I said that it could happen.

The same chance of braking a cable on a well maintained bike with rim brakes. You may not like disk brake but don't come up with BS reasons.

> And perhaps you think that disc brakes are better than rim brakes but when I can lock the brakes in RAIN with either that makes discs look like just another reason to buy a new bike.

Nobody is forcing anyone to buy a new bike with disk brakes and a few people do.

Lou

On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 12:32:36 PM UTC-8, Lou Holtman wrote:
> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 4:50:22 PM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
> > What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
> >
> > I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
> Q: What is a fair price for a bike?
> A: The price people are willing to pay and the competion allows.
>
> Lou

Of course you're correct. But I designed so many products for medium to large scale production that I know what construction costs. If you're a mechanical engineer you should too in which case you know that I'm correct of frame building costs. I can set up the aluminum Trek assembly line so that they could turn out 500 bikes a day. And the only really skilled labor would be the heliarc welders.

On Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 4:26:27 AM UTC-8, Lou Holtman wrote:
> On Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 12:59:38 AM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
> > On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 3:35:52 PM UTC-8, Roger Merriman wrote:
> > > John B. <sloc...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > > On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 12:07:54 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
> > > > <cycl...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > >
> > > >> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
> > > >>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> > > >>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people
> > > > that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing
> > > > and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a
> > > > bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or
> > > > aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super
> > > > lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now
> > > > building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or
> > > > lack of) of steel.
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they
> > > > can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like
> > > > running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike
> > > > automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling
> > > > over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at
> > > > all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic
> > > > glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to
> > > > friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on
> > > > the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal
> > > > but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that
> > > > manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing
> > > > for them.
> > > The idea that rim brakes are on par with disk in the wet, is ridiculous
> > > really.
> > >
> > > And equally the idea your going to rip out the hydraulic line, I guess it
> > > is possible but well into the improbable, after all MTB well crash fairly
> > > frequently, in unsurprising news they don’t spend there life replacing
> > > pipes and so on.
> > > >>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
> > > >>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
> > > >>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
> > > >>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
> > > >>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
> > > >>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
> > > >>> gravy train in most cases.
> > > >>> --
> > > >>> Andrew Muzi
> > > >>> a...@yellowjersey.org
> > > >>> Open every day since 1 April, 1971
> > > >
> > > >> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which
> > > >> can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.
> > > >
> > > > You are forgetting the cost of labour. I read that minimum wages in
> > > > California are now $15.50/hour, $124/8 hour day.
> > > > Shanghai China the minimum is 24 yuan/hour, 192 yuan/day - about
> > > > $26.30, a day and in Thailand it is 354 baht, about $9.90 a day.
> > > >
> > > > And when you add in the U.S., FICA, and other charges it makes an even
> > > > greater difference.
> > > Roger Merriman
> > I didn't say it would be common. I said that it could happen.
> The same chance of braking a cable on a well maintained bike with rim brakes. You may not like disk brake but don't come up with BS reasons.
> > And perhaps you think that disc brakes are better than rim brakes but when I can lock the brakes in RAIN with either that makes discs look like just another reason to buy a new bike.
> Nobody is forcing anyone to buy a new bike with disk brakes and a few people do.
>
> Lou
Come on Lou, cyclists are the easiest people in the world to brain wash. Then moved discs over to the road bikes not to improve braking which they don't do, but because it allowed them to make lighter deep carbon wheels and then after they sold everyone on that they are now making shallow carbon wheels "for cyclocross" and everyone if buying them despite the fact that almost no American rides cyclocross because it is nasty and muddy. Don't try to put a happy face on it - you can lock the wheels on properly adjusted rim brakes, wet or dry, and discs sell only because the pro racers use them and a large segment of them don't like them but ride them because of their contracts.

On 11/11/2023 6:07 PM, John B. wrote:
> On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 14:55:24 -0600, AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>
>> On 11/11/2023 2:07 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>>>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
>>>>>
>>>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
>>>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
>>>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
>>>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
>>>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
>>>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
>>>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
>>>> gravy train in most cases.
>>
>>> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.
>>
>> Artisan shop (up to low hundreds per year) $20K~$50K. Modern
>> automated facility such as Panasonic Osaka, hundreds of
>> millions of dollars.
>
> Automated machinery is an interesting subject. Years ago I did some
> surveys for a U.S. consulting firm and visited the Toyota factory
> here. They had just installed a new automated welding machine that
> (from memory) welded axle housings into the deferential housing. I
> made a comment about how it must be cheaper then employing skilled
> welders and they replied, "Yes. And it makes perfect welds every
> time".

And does it 24 hours per day, every day, exactly the same.
--
Andrew Muzi
am@yellowjersey.org
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 11/11/2023 7:01 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Sun, 12 Nov 2023 07:07:22 +0700, John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 14:55:24 -0600, AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>
>>> On 11/11/2023 2:07 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
>>>>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
>>>>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
>>>>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
>>>>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
>>>>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
>>>>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
>>>>> gravy train in most cases.
>>>
>>>> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.
>>>
>>> Artisan shop (up to low hundreds per year) $20K~$50K. Modern
>>> automated facility such as Panasonic Osaka, hundreds of
>>> millions of dollars.
>>
>> Automated machinery is an interesting subject. Years ago I did some
>> surveys for a U.S. consulting firm and visited the Toyota factory
>> here. They had just installed a new automated welding machine that
>> (from memory) welded axle housings into the deferential housing. I
>> made a comment about how it must be cheaper then employing skilled
>> welders and they replied, "Yes. And it makes perfect welds every
>> time".
>
> Automated assembly probably won't work well with $7,500 frames.
> Automation works best when all the products are identical. Automation
> works badly if every bicycle is a custom frame size, different
> configuration, different options, different paint, different decals,
> etc. If Tom were buying hundreds of frames or complete bicycles, I
> believe automated assembly might be possible but not with one frame.
>
> A good example of this is Dell. You can buy Dell computahs in various
> ways. The cheapest is to order one of the "stock" configurations,
> which Dell produces by the thousands and sells them in any quantity
> from one machine to thousands. Henry Ford described this method
> nicely. You can buy any color you want, as long as it's black. It's
> the same with Dell computers. You can have any configuration you want
> as long as it's one of the Dell "stock" configurations.
>
> For those with money to burn, they can order online almost any
> configuration. Almost means that the option has to be available for
> Dell to install. The buyer goes to the Dell online ordering page,
> selects a base model, and then adds options until he runs out of
> money. There are some mutually exclusive options and features, but
> Dell's software does a good job of preventing people from ordering
> unusable systems. The problem is that these computahs cost more than
> the "stock" configurations and take longer to deliver.
>
> If you want to build your own computer, Dell can sell you the case,
> boards and options from their repair inventory. Prices are high, but
> if you want to build your own Dell computer from parts, it can be
> done. Well, maybe. Looks like the SPMD (Spare Parts Master Database)
> and PCD (Parts Compatibility Database) are now only for Dell internal
> use.
>
> Since Tom likes to buy on eBay and Craigslist, Dell will also sell
> refurbished computers:
> <https://www.dellrefurbished.com>
>
> I'm not sure what Tom would do with a $7,500 frame at a reduced price.
> Will he order a frame in a quantity of one? That would not fit well
> with automated assembly. Will he order a custom assembled bicycle in
> the style of Dell? If he doesn't like the $7,500 price for the frame,
> he also won't like the astronomical price for the completed custom
> bicycle. My guess(tm) is he will continue his habit of buying
> components on eBay or Craigslist. That will have a low success rate
> as demonstrated by the range of problems Tom has experienced.
>
> Good luck.
>
>

This is not new technology:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1hd2GZQxWs

Even standard models already require 3 or 5 or 10 setups for
size, multiply by models. 'Custom' is but a small variation
in software, not much impediment.
--
Andrew Muzi
am@yellowjersey.org
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 11/12/2023 9:05 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 12:32:36 PM UTC-8, Lou Holtman wrote:
>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 4:50:22 PM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
>>>
>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
>> Q: What is a fair price for a bike?
>> A: The price people are willing to pay and the competion allows.
>>
>> Lou
>
> Of course you're correct. But I designed so many products for medium to large scale production that I know what construction costs. If you're a mechanical engineer you should too in which case you know that I'm correct of frame building costs. I can set up the aluminum Trek assembly line so that they could turn out 500 bikes a day. And the only really skilled labor would be the heliarc welders.

That would be a robot weld station, not meatware.
--
Andrew Muzi
am@yellowjersey.org
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On 11/12/2023 10:35 AM, AMuzi wrote:
>
> This is not new technology:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1hd2GZQxWs

We used very similar robots in our robotics course and lab. Ours were by
Nachi (and relabeled as GE) instead of ABB.

One of the sort of side benefits of such automation is that robots tend
to require better upstream production accuracy. That is, a single
craftsman building a frame may make a slight error when (say) cutting or
mitering a frame tube, but find a way to make it work acceptably. That's
much less likely with a robotic setup, since the robot is not as
adaptable. So the production of component parts has to be more uniform,
causing an additional increase in product quality.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 7:22:19 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
> On 11/11/2023 6:07 PM, John B. wrote:
> > On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 14:55:24 -0600, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
> >
> >> On 11/11/2023 2:07 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> >>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
> >>>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> >>>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
> >>>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
> >>>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
> >>>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
> >>>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
> >>>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
> >>>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
> >>>> gravy train in most cases.
> >>
> >>> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.
> >>
> >> Artisan shop (up to low hundreds per year) $20K~$50K. Modern
> >> automated facility such as Panasonic Osaka, hundreds of
> >> millions of dollars.
> >
> > Automated machinery is an interesting subject. Years ago I did some
> > surveys for a U.S. consulting firm and visited the Toyota factory
> > here. They had just installed a new automated welding machine that
> > (from memory) welded axle housings into the deferential housing. I
> > made a comment about how it must be cheaper then employing skilled
> > welders and they replied, "Yes. And it makes perfect welds every
> > time".
> And does it 24 hours per day, every day, exactly the same.
> --
> Andrew Muzi
> a...@yellowjersey.org
> Open every day since 1 April, 1971

#1 John is a pure unadulterated bullshiter. Anyone that would hire him to "consult" on anything couldn't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.
#2 Why would Toyota weld the axle housing onto the differential case when the majority of the production is 4 wheel drive which requires a hinged connection? Do you suppose they only automate the single wheel drive assembly line? There are little roads in Africa and China where a large part of their production goes.
#3 Welding an axle casing to the differential housing could hardly be called automation at all since it is nothing more than automating the actual welding (which can be easily done with resistance) and the turning of the initial connection would probably be done by a human welder anyway. I haven't looked under a car in years but the older cars use to pressure form the steel axle housing and then bolt is onto the differential case. This would far more easily be automated for production. And it gives direct and not indirect access to the differential.

This all had to do with automating bicycle construction. Metal construction is a snap. Clarence Witt built the bikes for his racing team and as a custom builder, it took more time to get the measurements from his team riders than building the bikes in the back of the shop. Production bikes all have standard sizes meaning that cutting the tube lengths are normally done AT THE TUBING manufacturer because otherwise you would be cutting off the butting or in the case of aluminum - you would be destroying the pressure forming.

All the bike manufacturer is doing is cutting the crescent ends and brazing.. Brazing is an art but it can be learned in a day or two and most mistakes can be fixed by a competent brazier. So braziers are cheap.

On 11/12/2023 10:05 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> On Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 7:22:19 AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>> On 11/11/2023 6:07 PM, John B. wrote:
>>> On Sat, 11 Nov 2023 14:55:24 -0600, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 11/11/2023 2:07 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>>> On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 8:01:59?AM UTC-8, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>>> On 11/11/2023 9:50 AM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>>>>> What do you suppose is going through the heads of people that think that a little more than one hour's labor welding or brazing and $100 worth of materials. would allow them to charge $7500 for a bicycle frame? It is now to the point where you can build a steel or aluminum bike in the larger sizes to the UCI weight limit and super lightweight is losing it's appeal to racing teams where they are now building racing carbon fiber frames to the mimic the stiffness (or lack of) of steel.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I don't like disc brakes and I certainly do not agree that they can stop you any better than rim brakes wet or dry. I also do not like running hoses for hydraulic brakes on a bicycle which unlike automobiles can be involved in very minor "accidents" (like falling over at the coffee shop) and break a line leaving you with no brake at all on that line. If the brake hose gets loose from the plastic glue-on, it can also rub against the tire and rub a hole in it due to friction. This is another thing to inspect before a ride. Of course on the latest bikes the hoses, like the wires, are completely internal but new bike sales are now in the trash can due to the prices that manufacturers think that they can charge. That will be a major failing for them.
>>>>>> Besides the more laborious design, machining and setup
>>>>>> processes (not merely welding), a going concern has to pay
>>>>>> for energy, supplies and materials. Don't forget rent,
>>>>>> utilities, taxes and maintenance. Then there's the tradeoff
>>>>>> between time and capital tooling. Amortize those expenses
>>>>>> over some number of sales and it doesn't look much like a
>>>>>> gravy train in most cases.
>>>>
>>>>> Tooling, machining and such are spread over the numbers of bikes which can run into the thousands making the cost of these things minimal at best.
>>>>
>>>> Artisan shop (up to low hundreds per year) $20K~$50K. Modern
>>>> automated facility such as Panasonic Osaka, hundreds of
>>>> millions of dollars.
>>>
>>> Automated machinery is an interesting subject. Years ago I did some
>>> surveys for a U.S. consulting firm and visited the Toyota factory
>>> here. They had just installed a new automated welding machine that
>>> (from memory) welded axle housings into the deferential housing. I
>>> made a comment about how it must be cheaper then employing skilled
>>> welders and they replied, "Yes. And it makes perfect welds every
>>> time".
>> And does it 24 hours per day, every day, exactly the same.
>> --
>> Andrew Muzi
>> a...@yellowjersey.org
>> Open every day since 1 April, 1971
>
> #1 John is a pure unadulterated bullshiter. Anyone that would hire him to "consult" on anything couldn't tell their ass from a hole in the ground.
> #2 Why would Toyota weld the axle housing onto the differential case when the majority of the production is 4 wheel drive which requires a hinged connection? Do you suppose they only automate the single wheel drive assembly line? There are little roads in Africa and China where a large part of their production goes.
> #3 Welding an axle casing to the differential housing could hardly be called automation at all since it is nothing more than automating the actual welding (which can be easily done with resistance) and the turning of the initial connection would probably be done by a human welder anyway. I haven't looked under a car in years but the older cars use to pressure form the steel axle housing and then bolt is onto the differential case. This would far more easily be automated for production. And it gives direct and not indirect access to the differential.
>
> This all had to do with automating bicycle construction. Metal construction is a snap. Clarence Witt built the bikes for his racing team and as a custom builder, it took more time to get the measurements from his team riders than building the bikes in the back of the shop. Production bikes all have standard sizes meaning that cutting the tube lengths are normally done AT THE TUBING manufacturer because otherwise you would be cutting off the butting or in the case of aluminum - you would be destroying the pressure forming.
>
> All the bike manufacturer is doing is cutting the crescent ends and brazing. Brazing is an art but it can be learned in a day or two and most mistakes can be fixed by a competent brazier. So braziers are cheap.

That's not even remotely right.

Tubes are delivered as cylinders and any miters are cut as
needed for each job (or each series).

http://www.yellowjersey.org/gth8.jpg

Miters can be damned-near-perfect or merely approximate [1]
by automated milling machine or by hand. Here's an original
factory tube and my replacement for example:

http://www.yellowjersey.org/photosfromthepast/hk20f.jpg

Automated process for brazed joints (often induction
fixture, not flame) is very old technology (~100 years).
Trek was using it in the 1980s (back when they made steel
frames in USA) to successfully lower payroll expense.

https://www.ambrell.com/blog/the-evolution-and-history-of-induction-heating-part-1

p.s. Premium tube was once stamped with manufacturer, model
and gauge at the butt[2] end.

https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9e2024_61edb531bb8f4a2599776ad36a82c462~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_566,h_424,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/9e2024_61edb531bb8f4a2599776ad36a82c462~mv2.jpg

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikeforums.net-vbulletin/2000x1333/img_0278_97b8ba6a48126aea2c57293187e86512ce257f50.jpg

Modern tube has a paint smear (gauges noted by color) on the
butt end. At any rate a tape measure finds the tube midpoint
and resting the tube there shows which end is thicker or
which butt is longer. This is not rocket science. Even
automated systems do it.

[1] as with anything else time is money, tooling is money,
skilled operator attention is money, etc.
[2]or longer butt for DB tube
--
Andrew Muzi
am@yellowjersey.org
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Sun, 12 Nov 2023 07:05:02 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
<cyclintom@gmail.com> wrote:

>Of course you're correct. But I designed so many products for medium to large scale production that I know what construction costs. If you're a mechanical engineer you should too in which case you know that I'm correct of frame building costs. I can set up the aluminum Trek assembly line so that they could turn out 500 bikes a day. And the only really skilled labor would be the heliarc welders.

If you've designed "so many" products, know frame building costs, can
"setup" the Trek aluminum assembly line to produce 500 (complete)
bicycles per day, you must know which manufacturers are currently
using robotics to fabricate and assemble their bicycles. Could I
trouble you for their names (and URL's) so I can read about their
methods? I especially would like to know how they handle "floppy"
components, such as brake and shifting cables. Also, how the assembly
robot handles variations in the frame size and position when attaching
components.

Heliarc and helium gas are no longer used as a shielding gas for
welding aluminum. The most common welding gas mix is 75% argon, 25%
carbon dioxide. There are other blends available:
<https://eurekaoxygencompany.com/2020/02/15/argon-co2-mixtures/>
The technology is called TIG (Tungsten Inert Gas) welding. Frame
welding has already been successfully automated by most bicycle
manufacturers and suppliers. No human welders are involved in the
welding. I couldn't find much on Trek, but here's a vague description
of what Giant Group is doing:
"AI-Assisted Aluminum Manufacturing"
<https://www.giantgroup-cycling.com/en/technology01>

Reminder: Since you want the frame built to your exact
specifications, how is the assembly robot going to deal with changes
in frame position and geometry when each frame is different?

Also: I know you don't want to pay $7,500 for a frame. What price
would you consider acceptable for an aluminum or steel frame
robotically built to your exacting specifications? There are plenty
of custom frame builders around. Have you asked anyone for an
estimate?

--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
PO Box 272 http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Ben Lomond CA 95005-0272
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

On 11/12/2023 11:57 AM, AMuzi wrote:
>
> Automated process for brazed joints (often induction fixture, not flame)
> is very old technology (~100 years). Trek was using it in the 1980s
> (back when they made steel frames in USA) to successfully lower payroll
> expense.
>
> https://www.ambrell.com/blog/the-evolution-and-history-of-induction-heating-part-1

This is a local company that specializes in induction heating equipment:
https://www.ajaxtocco.com/home.asp?ID=2

They've hired many graduates from my program, and their former vice
president is a long time friend of mine. He served for years on our
industrial advisory committee and taught a few courses for us.

--
- Frank Krygowski