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tech / rec.bicycles.tech / Re: Off road hazards

Re: Off road hazards

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https://www.novabbs.com/tech/article-flat.php?id=52942&group=rec.bicycles.tech#52942

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From: slocom...@gmail.com (John B.)
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: Off road hazards
Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2022 18:02:40 +0700
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 by: John B. - Wed, 2 Mar 2022 11:02 UTC

On Wed, 2 Mar 2022 00:51:37 -0800 (PST), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
<ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 11:51:02 PM UTC-6, John B. wrote:
>> On Wed, 02 Mar 2022 12:39:30 +0700, John B. <sloc...@gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>> >On Tue, 1 Mar 2022 19:59:15 -0800 (PST), Frank Krygowski
>> ><frkr...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> >
>> >>On Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 8:38:58 PM UTC-5, AMuzi wrote:
>> >>> On 3/1/2022 7:28 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
>> >>> > On 3/1/2022 7:56 PM, AMuzi wrote:
>> >>> >> On 3/1/2022 6:40 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
>> >>> >>> On 3/1/2022 4:34 PM, AMuzi wrote:
>> >>> >>>> On 3/1/2022 2:52 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
>> >>> >>>>> On 3/1/2022 3:44 PM, AMuzi wrote:
>> >>> >>>>>> On 3/1/2022 1:40 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
>> >>> >>>>>>> On 3/1/2022 11:47 AM, AMuzi wrote:
>> >>> >>>>>>>> On 3/1/2022 10:04 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> >
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> When you explain to me _why_ you think Canadians
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> are ...
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> inherently? genetically? ... more civilized than
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> Americans,
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> you'll have a point.
>> >>> >>>>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> BTW, your explanation should also apply to Brits,
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> Irish,
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> French, Swedes and so many other countries that
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> have far
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> fewer gun deaths than the U.S. (Since you brought
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> up the
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> subject, I'll rely on you to look up their rates of
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> rape and
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> other violent crimes.)
>> >>> >>>>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> Until you come up with a better explanation, I'm
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> going to
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> assume that differences in gun death rates have a lot
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> to do
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> with their national policies, as implemented by their
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> laws,
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> etc.
>> >>> >>>>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> Briefly, my view is that national policies make a big
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> difference in how people behave.
>> >>> >>>>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> Your view is, apparently, "Americans are just bad."
>> >>> >>>>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> Feel free to restate your view if it's different. And
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> don't
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> change the subject, John. This is what we are talking
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> about
>> >>> >>>>>>>>> _now_.
>> >>> >>>>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>>> When Andrew Cuomo was Mr Cinton's HUD Secretary, he
>> >>> >>>>>>>> announced a firearm buyback program for residents of
>> >>> >>>>>>>> public housing. Reporter asked if firearms made public
>> >>> >>>>>>>> housing dangerous or if residents felt a need to arm
>> >>> >>>>>>>> themselves for  protection because their
>> >>> >>>>>>>> hallways
>> >>> >>>>>>>> and
>> >>> >>>>>>>> neighborhoods had become more dangerous.
>> >>> >>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>> Which doesn't address John's implication that Americans
>> >>> >>>>>>> are
>> >>> >>>>>>> just fundamentally evil. I guess that's his way of
>> >>> >>>>>>> saying
>> >>> >>>>>>> that laws and policies make no difference.
>> >>> >>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>> But I wonder what those public housing residents are
>> >>> >>>>>>> afraid
>> >>> >>>>>>> of? Is it punks with slingshots? Or punks with some
>> >>> >>>>>>> different weaponry?
>> >>> >>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>> What do people in violent neighborhoods fear? Knives,
>> >>> >>>>>> beatings, assaults of various severity and yes firearms.
>> >>> >>>>>> Get rid of firearms and you have the same vicious people
>> >>> >>>>>> then add in an incitement to tyranny of an unarmed
>> >>> >>>>>> population.
>> >>> >>>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>> For an elderly woman with some guy coming through her
>> >>> >>>>>> bedroom window, a knife or club is of limited utility.
>> >>> >>>>>> When seconds matter, 911 is just twenty minutes away.
>> >>> >>>>>
>> >>> >>>>> As usual, I wonder about other countries. Do they not have
>> >>> >>>>> the problems you describe to the degree Americans do? If
>> >>> >>>>> they don't, why not? Is it genetics? Or is it laws and
>> >>> >>>>> policies?
>> >>> >>>>>
>> >>> >>>>> If they do have the problems, how do they manage them
>> >>> >>>>> without every elderly woman owning an AR rifle or rapid
>> >>> >>>>> fire
>> >>> >>>>> handgun?
>> >>> >>>>>
>> >>> >>>>>
>> >>> >>>>
>> >>> >>>> What do you mean by 'rapid fire' ? Typical home defense
>> >>> >>>> pistols are revolvers and striker type 9mm (or .380 /.40).
>> >>> >>>> Those all fire at the same speed[1].
>> >>> >>>>
>> >>> >>>> I'll bet you can't find even one police or news report in
>> >>> >>>> the past year in USA where a full-auto pistol was used for
>> >>> >>>> home self-defense.
>> >>> >>>
>> >>> >>> I did not say "full auto." And I'd say even nine rounds at
>> >>> >>> two rounds per second qualifies as "rapid fire." Hunters
>> >>> >>> don't do that. Target shooters do that only if they're
>> >>> >>> pretending to be in combat.
>> >>> >>>
>> >>> >>>> OTOH which of these scenarios would you prefer for your
>> >>> >>>> relative or yourself?
>> >>> >>>>
>> >>> >>>> A) This common crime?
>> >>> >>>> https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-wordle-mother-saved-lincolnwood-20220211-ecz5istdfrhvzdin4kibdwyrmi-story.html
>> >>> >>>>
>> >>> >>>>
>> >>> >>>>
>> >>> >>>> B) or more like this?
>> >>> >>>> https://www.foxnews.com/us/elderly-man-shoots-kills-half-naked-home-intruder-who-assaulted-his-wife
>> >>> >>>>
>> >>> >>>
>> >>> >>>
>> >>> >>> "Common crime"?? Talk about a "Danger! Danger!" statement!
>> >>> >>>
>> >>> >>> Somehow, the universe I live in is not nearly so scary, at
>> >>> >>> least to me and mine.
>> >>> >>>
>> >>> >>> But yet again: Why is it necessary for each U.S. household
>> >>> >>> to be armed for protection? Why is it not necessary in
>> >>> >>> Canada, Britain, Norway, Portugal...
>> >>> >>>
>> >>> >>>
>> >>> >>>> {1} in the real world.
>> >>> >>>> In TeeVee world, firearms are magic lead-spraying devices
>> >>> >>>> which always hit the intended target such as the bad guy's
>> >>> >>>> wrist when wielded by good guy. Bad guy firearms also
>> >>> >>>> spray huge quantities just over good guy's head with magic
>> >>> >>>> sound effects.
>> >>> >>>
>> >>> >>> I'm well aware of that silly glorification of gun culture.
>> >>> >>>
>> >>> >>
>> >>> >> Hunters ideally stalk in stealth, carefully positioned
>> >>> >> downwind and from occlusion, and take great pains to
>> >>> >> accurately sight in a lethal shot at the right moment[1].
>> >>> >>
>> >>> >> A woman awakened to the sound of breaking glass at 3 in
>> >>> >> the morning needs the second, third, nth shot. Utterly
>> >>> >> different situation.
>> >>> >
>> >>> > That's as imaginary as the TV show you referenced.
>> >>> >
>> >>> >
>> >>> > "Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime
>> >>> > Victimization Survey (NCVS). Among the findings of the most
>> >>> > recent edition of the study are the following:
>> >>> >
>> >>> > In 2017, the FBI reports there were only 298
>> >>> > justifiable homicides involving a private citizen using a
>> >>> > firearm. That same year, there were 10,380 criminal gun
>> >>> > homicides. Guns were used in 35 criminal homicides for every
>> >>> > justifiable homicide.
>> >>> > Intended victims of violent crimes engaged in
>> >>> > self-protective behavior that involved a firearm in 1.1
>> >>> > percent of attempted and completed incidents between 2014
>> >>> > and 2016.
>> >>> > Intended victims of property crimes engaged in
>> >>> > self-protective behavior that involved a firearm in 0.3
>> >>> > percent of attempted and completed incidents between 2014
>> >>> > and 2016.
>> >>> >
>> >>> > When analyzing the most reliable data available, what is
>> >>> > most striking is that in a nation of more than 300 million
>> >>> > guns, how rarely firearms are used in self-defense."
>> >>> >
>> >>> >
>> >>> >> Oh by the way do you have some fixation with hunting? I'm
>> >>> >> not a hunter myself but you sure reference that a lot.
>> >>> >
>> >>> > Hunting is a legitimate and non-fictional use of firearms,
>> >>> > one I heartily approve of. I'm not a hunter, but I know many
>> >>> > hunters and would have been one if my life were just a tiny
>> >>> > bit different - that is, if I'd had the time to accept some
>> >>> > invitations.
>> >>> >
>> >>> >
>> >>> >
>> >>> To my point, we agree that home invaders are often shot at,
>> >>> and to some degree wounded but _seldom fatally_, as you
>> >>> note. Unlike hunters, there's a lack of calm deliberate
>> >>> setup and preparation. I noted that difference earlier.
>> >>
>> >>Sorry, I do NOT agree "home invaders are often shot at." Not by any rational definition of "often." First,
>> >>home invasions are far, far from common - although I can talk about two examples I'm familiar with.
>> >>
>> >>One happened about two years ago maybe five miles from me. I don't know if they've figured out the
>> >>motivation, but it seemed weird. A punk broke in the front door in the dead of night and started shooting
>> >>at several people (not family members) gathered in the living room. He killed a little kid, apparently
>> >>not the intended target, and immediately ran off. Nobody shot back, because how would you know
>> >>to be "Quick Draw McGraw" at the ready?
>> >>
>> >>The other event I knew about involved the vice president of the manufacturing firm I worked at as
>> >>an engineer. He had a very nice house with glass panels aside the front door. A punk pounded on the
>> >>door at night, and the VP came to the door in his pajamas. He opened the door, saw the punk had a
>> >>gun and turned around to run up the stairs for his own gun. The punk broke a glass panel and shot
>> >>him as he ran, killing him.
>> >>
>> >>Whipping out a gun for defense is as imaginary as the TV action shootings.
>> >>
>> >>> https://fee.org/articles/more-people-use-a-gun-in-self-defense-each-year-than-die-in-car-accidents/
>> >>
>> >>"More People Use a Gun in Self-Defense Each Year Than Die in Car Accidents"?? That's very unlikely!
>> >>I put it in the same category as "This pill can help you lose up to 50 pounds in a month!"
>> >>
>> >>https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/podcasts/daily-newsletter-self-defense-gun-use.html
>> >>
>> >>"But how often are guns used in self-defense, really?
>> >>
>> >>“It’s pretty rare,” David Hemenway, director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center, said, despite the fact that gun violence in the U.S. is exceptionally common. There are more guns in the country than people, and nearly 40,000 Americans died because of gun violence in 2019. A majority of those deaths were suicides. From 2007 to 2011, only about 1 percent of people who were crime victims claimed to have used a gun to protect themselves — and the average person had “basically no chance in their lifetime ever to use a gun in self-defense,” Dr. Hemenway told NPR in 2018.
>> >>
>> >>"Still, getting exact numbers on the prevalence of what researchers call “self-defense gun use” is tricky. A study cited by the C.D.C. indicates a “range of 60,000 to 2.5 million defensive gun uses each year.” A large majority of firearms researchers, however, “think that’s a wild overestimate for two reasons,” Dr. Hemenway said. First, survey respondents are often shown to report the timing and frequencies of events inaccurately, a phenomenon known as the telescoping effect.
>> >>
>> >>"Additionally, people involved in gun violence often claim self-defense, even if the facts of the case don’t support that claim — a self-presentation bias that can make data unreliable. And when trying to measure rare events, any margin of survey error can create huge variables in the results."
>> >>
>> >>Again: "A large majority of firearms researchers, however, think that’s a wild overestimate."
>> >>
>> >>And even if it were true, how many developed countries does that apply to? Why?
>> >>
>> >>- Frank Krygowski
>> >
>> >https://www.dailysignal.com/2018/03/29/12-times-guns-saved-lives/
>> >https://fee.org/articles/guns-prevent-thousands-of-crimes-every-day-research-show/
>> >http://thinkaboutnow.com/2016/06/study-guns-stop-crime-2-5-million-times-each-year/
>> >https://stories.avvo.com/crime/8-horrible-crimes-stopped-by-legal-gun-owners.html
>> >https://www.gunowners.org/sk0802htm/
>> >
>> >(:-)
>> Sorry, I missed one. See
>> https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3887145
>
>John, I'm worried about you. The link above is a listing of results from a survey of gun owners. One third or something of the respondents said the gun saved their lives or property. Or something like that. You and I both know survey answers are not facts. They are just opinions. Especially in regard to something like whether a gun saved someone's life. The above link is about as credible as asking Tommy if he is a genius. Would you submit that as a fact in a court of law?
>
Well, of course. After all Frank links to wild eyed "gun grabbers" so
why can't I link to a sensible, sober, analysis of gun owners.(:-)
--
Cheers,

John B.

SubjectRepliesAuthor
o Off road hazards

By: Frank Krygowski on Wed, 16 Feb 2022

670Frank Krygowski
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