On Thu, 19 May 2022 21:57:32 -0400, Radey Shouman
<shouman@comcast.net> wrote:

>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>
>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:38:50 -0400, Radey Shouman
>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>
>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>
>>>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:45:43 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wed, 18 May 2022 13:46:14 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>>>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 17:28:02 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
>>>>>>>> <ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:57:13 PM UTC-5, John B. wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 09:15:10 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> >On 5/17/2022 5:03 AM, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> >> On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>> >>>>
>>>>>>>>>> >>> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
>>>>>>>>>> >>> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
>>>>>>>>>> >>> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
>>>>>>>>>> >>> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
>>>>>>>>>> >>> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
>>>>>>>>>> >>> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
>>>>>>>>>> >>> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.
>>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>> >> yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to
>>>>>>>>>> >> nationalize US private industries being announced daily
>>>>>>>>>> >> <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any
>>>>>>>>>> >> attempts to take over a private business, right?
>>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>> >The large political parties both have deep corruption and
>>>>>>>>>> >that's not secret. Nor news.
>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>> >Trend to a diminished regulated economy with less freedom
>>>>>>>>>> >and less prosperity is not getting better:
>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>> >https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/12/joe-biden-cancels-massive-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-d/
>>>>>>>>>> Yup,
>>>>>>>>>> In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the
>>>>>>>>>> Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area"
>>>>>>>>>> for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale.
>>>>>>>>>> The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf
>>>>>>>>>> of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted
>>>>>>>>>> work on these proposed lease sales."
>>>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>>>> The Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has
>>>>>>>>>> previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
>>>>>>>>>> 2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time
>>>>>>>>>> as the reason for scrapping the sales.
>>>>>>>>>> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-alaska-oil-gas-lease-sale-canceled/
>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> John B.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Yes. I have also seen many stories of leases for oil and gas land,
>>>>>>>>> that are not being used. The government sold them, but the buyers
>>>>>>>>> are not developing or trying to get the oil or gas. Very common.
>>>>>>>>> But we live in a reasonably free society with somewhat free markets,
>>>>>>>>> so the reasons for these unused oil and gas leases is reasonable.
>>>>>>>>> No one is trying to rob, steal, cheat anyone else.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>>>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>>>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>>>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>What does "$50/bbl" mean? Are the barrels the total oil that will be
>>>>>>>produced? barrels/day? barrels/year? How do you know how many barrels
>>>>>>>you'll get before drilling the well? I know the geologists and
>>>>>>>reservoir simulators will give you an idea ...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Sales price per barrel for the estimated production period necessary
>>>>>> to recover drilling and development costs.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Generally the exact numbers will not be known until at least one
>>>>>> exploration well is drilled and tested but your geology department
>>>>>> can, to some extent, guesstimate numbers although there are
>>>>>> innumerable cases of the Geologist getting it wrong.
>>>>>
>>>>>Thanks. So it is, roughly, barrels produced during the design lifetime
>>>>>of the well.
>>>>
>>>> Well, yes... except for the word "design". Substitute "Expected", or
>>>> even "Hoped for" :-).
>>>
>>>"Minimum expected" is what "design" means. If your management is reasonably
>>>conservative it's quite a bit less than what they hope for. And of
>>>course everything has to be brough to net present value using an assumed
>>>interest rate, which is also uncertain.
>>
>> Not necessarily. It is very much a matter of semantics.
>>
>> Oil Wells are "designed" largely based on tested flow rates. i.e, if a
>> well flows at, well say, 10,000 bbl/day, in an open hole test the one
>> doesn't size downhole components for a 100bbl/day well.
>
>That's why I asked about what your $/bbl figure meant. It requires
>knowing, or estimating, how much a well will flow before it is drilled.
>I guess maybe you mean that multiple wells drilled in the same field may
>be expected to flow about the same amount, but I'm not sure.
>

The way it works is that first you run seismic test on the area. Which
will tell you whether there is any hope of there being oil. There are
other tests, side scan radar, etc, but I think seismic is still the
mainstay.

If there is a sufficiently large "structure" shown which "might" hold
oil then the decision of whether to drill exploration wells, or not,
is made. Where is the field? How hard is to get to? If we do hit oil
then what?
Essentially, how much will it cost and how much can we make?

If the decision is to go ahead then a number of test wells are
drilled. In Indonesia, in my time, usually three.

Depending what was found, both quality and quantity, the decision to
establish a "field", or not, is made.

Generally, wells drilled in the same structure will flow about the
same for about the same length of time But... often the "structure is
a "dome" so wells drilled around the periphery will probably not have
as long life as wells drilled near the apex of the dome.

There are all kinds of other problems, water, structure permeability,
and so on, but the above is pretty much the major points in the Oil
Business.
--
Cheers,

John B.