On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>>>>>>> are buying or selling.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
>>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>>>>>> people will pay.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>>>>>
>>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
>>>>> supplies.
>>>>>
>>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
>>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
>>>>>
>>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
>>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
>>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
>>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
>>>>>
>>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
>>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
>>>>> getting a house built.
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
>>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
>>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
>>>>
>>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
>>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
>>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
>>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
>>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
>>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
>>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
>>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
>>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
>>>> homes since October.
>>>
>>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
>> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
>> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
>> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
>> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
>>
>> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
>> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
>>>
>>> Record low inventory:
>>>
>>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
>>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
>>>
>>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
>>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
>>>
>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>
> I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.
>
> They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
> August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.
>
> They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
> house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
> that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
> feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
> he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
> in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
> house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
> the cause of the increase.
>
> No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
> in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
> if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
> them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
> being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
> again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
> orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
> being impacted.
>
> She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
> a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
> placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
> was driving the price way beyond their budget.
>
>

This is a classic case of some one pissing on your boots and telling you
it is raining.

Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
pricing.
Wait until people start going back to work and not needing a home with
an office and the new home building goes back to normal rates and you
will see materials prices go back to what they should be.

On 5/5/2021 6:47 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 6:04:47 PM UTC-4, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> nixie tube X11R6 widgetMichael Trew <mt99...@ymail.com> writes:
>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>
>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>
>>>> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
>>>> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
>>>> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
>>>> would choose the one that they liked the best.
>>>>
>>>> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
>>>> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
>>>> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
>>>> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
>>>> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
>>>> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
>>>>
>>>> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
>>>> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
>>>> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
>>>> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
>>>> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
>>>> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
>>>>
>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>> close!
>>>>
>>>> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
>>>> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
>>>> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
>>>> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
>>>> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
>>>>
>>>> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
>>>> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
>>>> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
>>>> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
>>>> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
>>>> for the inspection.
>>>>
>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>
>>>>
>>> Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
>>> Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
>>> prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
>>> paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
>>> - all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.
>> I believe "DerbyDad03" is somewhere in that area.
>>
>> I see prices in Cadiz (picked at random) range from 40k for 1800sqft to
>> 700k for 6000 sqft (413 N Main, cadiz).
>>
>> https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Cadiz_OH
>
> 360 miles west in Indiana.
>
> Hard to use a simple price/size comparison. Within 8 miles
> $60K gets you 928 sq ft, $960K gets you 988 sq ft. It depends
> on how much land you want. .5 acres or 38 acres.
>
> The same holds for other house/lot sizes, of course.
>
> The house in question is 2300 sq ft on 2.5 acres, at the end
> of a cul-de-sac. Farm land on 2 sides. Selling price range on
> Zillow is $314K - $423K They won't know what they will be
> paying until the appraisal comes in. Add $15K up to a max
> of $425K.
>

Some dear ex-neighbors of ours moved to to about 30 miles south of
Roanoke VA.
They are in a rural setting, beautiful green grass rolling hills, 13
acres with a creek at the back of the property and in the middle a 9200
sq ft 3 story home. $525K. They bought 18 months ago.

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:50:40 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> > On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> >>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> >>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
> >>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
> >>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
> >>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
> >>>>>>> are buying or selling.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
> >>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
> >>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
> >>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
> >>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
> >>>>>> people will pay.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
> >>>>> supplies.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
> >>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
> >>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
> >>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
> >>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
> >>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
> >>>>> getting a house built.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
> >>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
> >>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
> >>>>
> >>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
> >>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
> >>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
> >>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
> >>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
> >>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
> >>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
> >>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
> >>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
> >>>> homes since October.
> >>>
> >>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
> >> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
> >> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
> >> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
> >> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
> >>
> >> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
> >> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
> >>>
> >>> Record low inventory:
> >>>
> >>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
> >>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
> >>>
> >>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
> >>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
> >>>
> >>> Supply and Demand indeed.
> >> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
> >> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
> >
> > I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.
> >
> > They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
> > August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.
> >
> > They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
> > house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
> > that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
> > feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
> > he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
> > in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
> > house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
> > the cause of the increase.
> >
> > No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
> > in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
> > if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
> > them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
> > being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
> > again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
> > orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
> > being impacted.
> >
> > She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
> > a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
> > placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
> > was driving the price way beyond their budget.
> >
> >
> This is a classic case of some one pissing on your boots and telling you
> it is raining.
>
> Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
> been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
> uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
> extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
> pricing.

On 5/6/2021 9:24 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:13:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>
>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>> $60K.
>>>>
>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>
>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>
>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>
>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>
>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>
>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>> when we moved here.
>>>
>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>
>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>
>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>
>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>
>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>
>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>> long?
>>>
>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>
>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>
>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>> $6 hundred.
>
> Yet somehow services are provided in both states. Obviously we're lacking
> some details.
>

Probably a big factor, less politics. Then add a state income tax,
Texas has no state income tax.

Services are not equal. While most public school systems are greatly
lacking, I think Arkansas falls behind. About half of our property
taxes go to schools.

On 5/6/2021 10:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:50:40 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>>>>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>>>>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>>>>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>>>>>>>>> are buying or selling.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
>>>>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>>>>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>>>>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>>>>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>>>>>>>> people will pay.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
>>>>>>> supplies.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
>>>>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
>>>>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
>>>>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
>>>>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
>>>>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
>>>>>>> getting a house built.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
>>>>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
>>>>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
>>>>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
>>>>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
>>>>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
>>>>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
>>>>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
>>>>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
>>>>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
>>>>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
>>>>>> homes since October.
>>>>>
>>>>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
>>>> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
>>>> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
>>>> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
>>>> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
>>>>
>>>> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
>>>> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
>>>>>
>>>>> Record low inventory:
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
>>>>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
>>>>>
>>>>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
>>>>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
>>>>>
>>>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
>>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>>>
>>> I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.
>>>
>>> They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
>>> August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.
>>>
>>> They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
>>> house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
>>> that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
>>> feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
>>> he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
>>> in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
>>> house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
>>> the cause of the increase.
>>>
>>> No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
>>> in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
>>> if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
>>> them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
>>> being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
>>> again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
>>> orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
>>> being impacted.
>>>
>>> She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
>>> a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
>>> placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
>>> was driving the price way beyond their budget.
>>>
>>>
>> This is a classic case of some one pissing on your boots and telling you
>> it is raining.
>>
>> Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
>> been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
>> uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
>> extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
>> pricing.
>
> Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
> involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
> trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
> at home.
>
> Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
> must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.

On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>
>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>> 1997.
>>>>
>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>> $60K.
>>>
>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>
>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>
>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>
>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>
>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>> the taxes on it.
>>>
>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>> when we moved here.
>>
>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>
>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>
>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>
>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>
>>>
>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>
>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>> already been dropped by then.
>>
>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>> long?
>>
>
>
>You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>
> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>
>Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.

On Thu, 6 May 2021 07:24:53 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
<teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:

>On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:13:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> > On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >
>> >> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >>>
>> >>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>> >>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> >>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>> >>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>> >>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>> >>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>> >>>>>>>>>>> close!
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>> >>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
>> >>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>> >>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>> >>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>> >>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>> >>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>> >>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>> >>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
>> >>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>> >>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>> >>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>> >>>>>>> are screwed.
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>> >>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>> >>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>> >>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>> >>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>> >>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>> >>>> 1997.
>> >>>
>> >>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>> >>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>> >>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>> >>> $60K.
>> >>
>> >> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>>
>> >>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>> >>>
>> >>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>> >>>
>> >>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>> >>>
>> >>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>> >>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>> >>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>> >>
>> >> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>> >> the taxes on it.
>> >>
>> > We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>> > house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>> > size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>> > when we moved here.
>> >
>> > When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>> > $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>> > looked at her like she had a third eye.
>> >
>> > That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>> > University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>> > (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>> > hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>> > There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>> >
>> > Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>> > discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>> > completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>> > retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>> > retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>> >>>>
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>> >>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>> >>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>> >>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>> >>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>> >>>>>
>> >>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>> >>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>> >>>
>> >>
>> >> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>> >> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>> >> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>> >> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>> >> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>> >
>> > An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>> > already been dropped by then.
>> >
>> > I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>> > long?
>> >
>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>
>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>
>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>> $6 hundred.
>
>Yet somehow services are provided in both states. Obviously we're lacking
>some details.

Probably not. He likely got no services from either.

On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:14:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/6/2021 9:24 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:13:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
>>>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>>>> 1997.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>>>> $60K.
>>>>>
>>>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>>>
>>>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>>>> the taxes on it.
>>>>>
>>>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>>>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>>>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>>>> when we moved here.
>>>>
>>>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>>>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>>>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>>>
>>>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>>>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>>>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>>>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>>>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>>>
>>>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>>>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>>>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>>>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>>>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>>>
>>>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>>>> already been dropped by then.
>>>>
>>>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>>>> long?
>>>>
>>> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>>>
>>> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>>>
>>> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
>>> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>>> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>>> $6 hundred.
>>
>> Yet somehow services are provided in both states. Obviously we're lacking
>> some details.
>>
>
>
>Probably a big factor, less politics. Then add a state income tax,
>Texas has no state income tax.
>
>Services are not equal. While most public school systems are greatly
>lacking, I think Arkansas falls behind. About half of our property
>taxes go to schools.

On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:43:46 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/5/2021 11:21 AM, Spalted Walt wrote:
>> DerbyDad03 <teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:
>>
>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
>>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>>>
>>> I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
>>> when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
>>> there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
>>>
>>> I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
>>> your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
>>> no shortage?
>>>
>>> e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lumber-shortage-2021-7-reasons-wood-prices-are-soaring/
>>>
>>> In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
>>> increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
>>> $16K to $24K on average.
>>
>> +1
>>
>> Published: April 26, 2021
>> <https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/26/lumber-prices-drive-up-new-home-prices/>
>>
>> "HOUSTON – Homebuyers, builders, and even DIYers are shocked and stuck with crazy-high lumber prices. The
>> price of lumber has increased about 180% since last year."
>> [...]
>> "Hollins says most new home prices are going up by $30,000 to $40,000 to help builders cover the cost of
>> lumber. There are several reasons for the increase."
>>>
>>> I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
>>> mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)
>
>Soooo the cost of construction materials in a new home is expensive but
>not that expensive. I was told by our builder that the materials cost
>of the average home was $35K and the average cost of the homes were
>$350K. They expected the cost of materials to go up by $12K on our home
>so we needed to go into contract to lock in the price. We did but the
>builder reneged 2 weeks later. Our builder on average is making $70K
>more on a home today than 5 months ago. Do the math.
>
I'm not buying those numbers. Maybe the cost of stick is that much
but there can easily be more than $35K in the kitchen alone, and
another $35K in bathrooms.

On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:25:43 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/6/2021 10:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:50:40 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>> On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>>>>>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>>>>>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>>>>>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>>>>>>>>>> are buying or selling.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>>>>>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>>>>>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>>>>>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>>>>>>>>> people will pay.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
>>>>>>>> supplies.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
>>>>>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
>>>>>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
>>>>>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
>>>>>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
>>>>>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
>>>>>>>> getting a house built.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
>>>>>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
>>>>>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
>>>>>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
>>>>>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
>>>>>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
>>>>>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
>>>>>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
>>>>>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
>>>>>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
>>>>>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
>>>>>>> homes since October.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
>>>>> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
>>>>> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
>>>>> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
>>>>> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
>>>>>
>>>>> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
>>>>> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Record low inventory:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
>>>>>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
>>>>>>
>>>>>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
>>>>>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
>>>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>>>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>>>>
>>>> I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.
>>>>
>>>> They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
>>>> August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.
>>>>
>>>> They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
>>>> house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
>>>> that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
>>>> feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
>>>> he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
>>>> in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
>>>> house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
>>>> the cause of the increase.
>>>>
>>>> No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
>>>> in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
>>>> if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
>>>> them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
>>>> being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
>>>> again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
>>>> orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
>>>> being impacted.
>>>>
>>>> She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
>>>> a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
>>>> placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
>>>> was driving the price way beyond their budget.
>>>>
>>>>
>>> This is a classic case of some one pissing on your boots and telling you
>>> it is raining.
>>>
>>> Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
>>> been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
>>> uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
>>> extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
>>> pricing.
>>
>> Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
>> involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
>> trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
>> at home.
>>
>> Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
>> must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.
>
>
>Just to clarify, I meant to say uneducated in home buying and ownership.
>
>Every age group has it's deficiencies. But right now, today, at the all
>time high of home building, what is the ratio of older buyers to first
>time home buyers.

On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:56:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/5/2021 6:47 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 6:04:47 PM UTC-4, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>> nixie tube X11R6 widgetMichael Trew <mt99...@ymail.com> writes:
>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>
>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>
>>>>> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
>>>>> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
>>>>> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
>>>>> would choose the one that they liked the best.
>>>>>
>>>>> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
>>>>> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
>>>>> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
>>>>> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
>>>>> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
>>>>> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
>>>>>
>>>>> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
>>>>> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
>>>>> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
>>>>> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
>>>>> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
>>>>> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
>>>>>
>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>> close!
>>>>>
>>>>> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
>>>>> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
>>>>> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
>>>>> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
>>>>> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
>>>>>
>>>>> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
>>>>> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
>>>>> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
>>>>> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
>>>>> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
>>>>> for the inspection.
>>>>>
>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>> Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
>>>> Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
>>>> prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
>>>> paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
>>>> - all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.
>>> I believe "DerbyDad03" is somewhere in that area.
>>>
>>> I see prices in Cadiz (picked at random) range from 40k for 1800sqft to
>>> 700k for 6000 sqft (413 N Main, cadiz).
>>>
>>> https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Cadiz_OH
>>
>> 360 miles west in Indiana.
>>
>> Hard to use a simple price/size comparison. Within 8 miles
>> $60K gets you 928 sq ft, $960K gets you 988 sq ft. It depends
>> on how much land you want. .5 acres or 38 acres.
>>
>> The same holds for other house/lot sizes, of course.
>>
>> The house in question is 2300 sq ft on 2.5 acres, at the end
>> of a cul-de-sac. Farm land on 2 sides. Selling price range on
>> Zillow is $314K - $423K They won't know what they will be
>> paying until the appraisal comes in. Add $15K up to a max
>> of $425K.
>>
>
>
>Some dear ex-neighbors of ours moved to to about 30 miles south of
>Roanoke VA.
>They are in a rural setting, beautiful green grass rolling hills, 13
>acres with a creek at the back of the property and in the middle a 9200
>sq ft 3 story home. $525K. They bought 18 months ago.

The nearest grocery stores is in Roanoke, right?

On Thu, 06 May 2021 01:10:24 -0400, Michael Trew <mt999999@ymail.com>
wrote:

>On 5/5/2021 8:39 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Wed, 05 May 2021 15:55:20 -0400, Michael Trew<mt999999@ymail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>
>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>
>>>> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
>>>> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
>>>> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
>>>> would choose the one that they liked the best.
>>>>
>>>> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
>>>> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
>>>> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
>>>> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
>>>> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
>>>> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
>>>>
>>>> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
>>>> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
>>>> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
>>>> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
>>>> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
>>>> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
>>>>
>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>> close!
>>>>
>>>> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
>>>> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
>>>> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
>>>> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
>>>> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
>>>>
>>>> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
>>>> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
>>>> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
>>>> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
>>>> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
>>>> for the inspection.
>>>>
>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>
>>>>
>>> Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
>>> Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
>>> prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
>>> paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
>>> - all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.
>>
>> That's pretty bad, actually. You're paying 1.5% of the value of the
>> property in taxes. I pay less than half that (.065%).
>
>Unfortunately, my city has one of the highest tax rates in Columbiana
>county. That being said, all factored in, including the cost of other
>taxes, groceries, general goods, and cost of living in general here,
>it's hard to beat this area for affordability. The greater Youngstown
>(OH) region has been listed as one of the best places to live in the US
>based on cost of living.

I'm somewhat familiar with the area. It was a midpoint for our annual
pilgrimage home. I also worked a bit West of there in Akron (lived in
Kent) for a year. Except for Amish country, a rather depressing area.
If you have a job, I suppose it's affordable.

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> > On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> >>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> >>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
> >>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
> >>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
> >>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
> >>>>>>> are buying or selling.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
> >>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
> >>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
> >>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
> >>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
> >>>>>> people will pay.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
> >>>>> supplies.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
> >>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
> >>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
> >>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
> >>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
> >>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
> >>>>> getting a house built.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
> >>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
> >>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
> >>>>
> >>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
> >>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
> >>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
> >>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
> >>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
> >>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
> >>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
> >>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
> >>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
> >>>> homes since October.
> >>>
> >>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
> >> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
> >> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
> >> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
> >> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
> >>
> >> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
> >> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
> >>>
> >>> Record low inventory:
> >>>
> >>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
> >>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
> >>>
> >>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
> >>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
> >>>
> >>> Supply and Demand indeed.
> >> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
> >> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
> >
> > I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
> > when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
> > there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
> Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.

Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
both claim that the shortages continue.

https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-market-update-may-2021

"The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
and shortages in just about every building material category have created
an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."

And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.

https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/homebuilders-respond-say-lumber-producers-are-misleadingly

"The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
to Random Lengths – is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
that rely on lumber products."

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 1:00:39 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:25:43 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
> >On 5/6/2021 10:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:50:40 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>> On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
> >>>>>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
> >>>>>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
> >>>>>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
> >>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
> >>>>>>>>>> are buying or selling.
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
> >>>>>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
> >>>>>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
> >>>>>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
> >>>>>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
> >>>>>>>>> people will pay.
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
> >>>>>>>> supplies.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
> >>>>>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
> >>>>>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
> >>>>>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
> >>>>>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
> >>>>>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
> >>>>>>>> getting a house built.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
> >>>>>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
> >>>>>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
> >>>>>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
> >>>>>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
> >>>>>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
> >>>>>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
> >>>>>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
> >>>>>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
> >>>>>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
> >>>>>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
> >>>>>>> homes since October.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
> >>>>> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
> >>>>> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
> >>>>> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
> >>>>> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
> >>>>> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Record low inventory:
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
> >>>>>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
> >>>>>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
> >>>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
> >>>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
> >>>>
> >>>> I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.
> >>>>
> >>>> They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
> >>>> August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.
> >>>>
> >>>> They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
> >>>> house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
> >>>> that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
> >>>> feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
> >>>> he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
> >>>> in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
> >>>> house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
> >>>> the cause of the increase.
> >>>>
> >>>> No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
> >>>> in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
> >>>> if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
> >>>> them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
> >>>> being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
> >>>> again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
> >>>> orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
> >>>> being impacted.
> >>>>
> >>>> She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
> >>>> a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
> >>>> placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
> >>>> was driving the price way beyond their budget.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>> This is a classic case of some one pissing on your boots and telling you
> >>> it is raining.
> >>>
> >>> Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
> >>> been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
> >>> uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
> >>> extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
> >>> pricing.
> >>
> >> Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
> >> involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
> >> trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
> >> at home.
> >>
> >> Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
> >> must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.
> >
> >
> >Just to clarify, I meant to say uneducated in home buying and ownership.
> >
> >Every age group has it's deficiencies. But right now, today, at the all
> >time high of home building, what is the ratio of older buyers to first
> >time home buyers.

On 5/6/2021 1:02 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:56:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>> Some dear ex-neighbors of ours moved to to about 30 miles south of
>> Roanoke VA.
>> They are in a rural setting, beautiful green grass rolling hills, 13
>> acres with a creek at the back of the property and in the middle a 9200
>> sq ft 3 story home. $525K. They bought 18 months ago.
>
> The nearest grocery stores is in Roanoke, right?
>

Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!

--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 1:08:13 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> On Thu, 06 May 2021 01:10:24 -0400, Michael Trew <mt99...@ymail.com>
> wrote:
>
> >On 5/5/2021 8:39 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> On Wed, 05 May 2021 15:55:20 -0400, Michael Trew<mt99...@ymail.com>
> >> wrote:
> >>
> >>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> >>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
> >>>>
> >>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
> >>>>
> >>>> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
> >>>> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
> >>>> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
> >>>> would choose the one that they liked the best.
> >>>>
> >>>> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
> >>>> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
> >>>> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
> >>>> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
> >>>> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
> >>>> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
> >>>>
> >>>> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
> >>>> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
> >>>> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
> >>>> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
> >>>> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
> >>>> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
> >>>>
> >>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
> >>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
> >>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
> >>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
> >>>> close!
> >>>>
> >>>> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
> >>>> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
> >>>> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
> >>>> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
> >>>> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
> >>>>
> >>>> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
> >>>> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
> >>>> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
> >>>> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
> >>>> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
> >>>> for the inspection.
> >>>>
> >>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> >>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>> Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
> >>> Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
> >>> prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
> >>> paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
> >>> - all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.
> >>
> >> That's pretty bad, actually. You're paying 1.5% of the value of the
> >> property in taxes. I pay less than half that (.065%).
> >
> >Unfortunately, my city has one of the highest tax rates in Columbiana
> >county. That being said, all factored in, including the cost of other
> >taxes, groceries, general goods, and cost of living in general here,
> >it's hard to beat this area for affordability. The greater Youngstown
> >(OH) region has been listed as one of the best places to live in the US
> >based on cost of living.
> I'm somewhat familiar with the area. It was a midpoint for our annual
> pilgrimage home. I also worked a bit West of there in Akron (lived in
> Kent) for a year. Except for Amish country, a rather depressing area.
> If you have a job, I suppose it's affordable.

Ah...Akron. Home of Derby Downs. I know it well.

>
>> At a buy-in of $4-500K, is it really first time buyers?
>
>Well, this whole discussion was started with a description of a
>first-time buying couple submitting an offer that could max out
>at $425K, so yes.
>
>My friends that just had a house built sold their old house to a
>first-time buying couple for a bit over $400K. (My friends bought
>the house about 6 years ago (before prices skyrocketed) and signed
>the build contract 2 weeks before Covid hit, so their timing worked
>out perfectly. Bought low, built low, sold high.)
>
>According to Experian, as of 2019 the average age of a first-time
>homebuyer is 34. As in the case of my son and GF, a 34 YO could
>be well established in their careers and, coupled with low interest
>rates, can afford more of a house than perhaps you and I could -
>especially because we probably bought our first house at a younger
>age. I know I did.

Yepper. 1981 housing boom-time ; an hour from Greater Toronto ;
bidding wars and homes selling for more-than-ask .. a new thing.
16 1/2 % mortgage rates < no mis-print >
I, of course, signed a 1-year mortgage term - only to renew
at 18 % < no mis print > In that 12 months, the mortgage game
changed and I could sign for 3 months or variable. Some folks
took advice from a well known Sun newspaper columnist named Garth -
and took a longer term < at 18 % ! > - I went variable and renewed
less than 2 years later at 12 1/2.
.. the good ol' days. Eh.
John T.

ps: $ 67,000

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.9543469,-78.9685878,3a,75y,270h,90t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1ss3zjFctVEc8dk9FHqR3A3w!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

I planted that honey locust.
It backed onto endless farm fields then - endless homes now :-(

On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:28:03 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
<teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:

>On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 1:00:39 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:25:43 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>> >On 5/6/2021 10:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> >> On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:50:40 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> >>> On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> >>>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> >>>>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> >>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>> >>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> >>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>> >>>>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>> >>>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>> >>>>>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>> >>>>>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
>> >>>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>> >>>>>>>>>> are buying or selling.
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
>> >>>>>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>> >>>>>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>> >>>>>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>> >>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>> >>>>>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>> >>>>>>>>> people will pay.
>> >>>>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
>> >>>>>>>> supplies.
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
>> >>>>>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
>> >>>>>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
>> >>>>>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
>> >>>>>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
>> >>>>>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
>> >>>>>>>> getting a house built.
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
>> >>>>>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
>> >>>>>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
>> >>>>>>>
>> >>>>>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
>> >>>>>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
>> >>>>>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
>> >>>>>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
>> >>>>>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
>> >>>>>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
>> >>>>>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
>> >>>>>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
>> >>>>>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
>> >>>>>>> homes since October.
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
>> >>>>> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
>> >>>>> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
>> >>>>> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
>> >>>>> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
>> >>>>> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> Record low inventory:
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
>> >>>>>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
>> >>>>>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
>> >>>>>>
>> >>>>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
>> >>>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>> >>>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
>> >>>> August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
>> >>>> house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
>> >>>> that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
>> >>>> feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
>> >>>> he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
>> >>>> in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
>> >>>> house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
>> >>>> the cause of the increase.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
>> >>>> in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
>> >>>> if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
>> >>>> them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
>> >>>> being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
>> >>>> again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
>> >>>> orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
>> >>>> being impacted.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
>> >>>> a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
>> >>>> placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
>> >>>> was driving the price way beyond their budget.
>> >>>>
>> >>>>
>> >>> This is a classic case of some one pissing on your boots and telling you
>> >>> it is raining.
>> >>>
>> >>> Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
>> >>> been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
>> >>> uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
>> >>> extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
>> >>> pricing.
>> >>
>> >> Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
>> >> involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
>> >> trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
>> >> at home.
>> >>
>> >> Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
>> >> must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.
>> >
>> >
>> >Just to clarify, I meant to say uneducated in home buying and ownership.
>> >
>> >Every age group has it's deficiencies. But right now, today, at the all
>> >time high of home building, what is the ratio of older buyers to first
>> >time home buyers.
>
>> At a buy-in of $4-500K, is it really first time buyers?
>
>Well, this whole discussion was started with a description of a
>first-time buying couple submitting an offer that could max out
>at $425K, so yes.
>
>My friends that just had a house built sold their old house to a
>first-time buying couple for a bit over $400K. (My friends bought
>the house about 6 years ago (before prices skyrocketed) and signed
>the build contract 2 weeks before Covid hit, so their timing worked
>out perfectly. Bought low, built low, sold high.)
>
>According to Experian, as of 2019 the average age of a first-time
>homebuyer is 34. As in the case of my son and GF, a 34 YO could
>be well established in their careers and, coupled with low interest
>rates, can afford more of a house than perhaps you and I could -
>especially because we probably bought our first house at a younger
>age. I know I did.

On Thu, 6 May 2021 13:32:04 -0400, Bill <nonegiven@att.net> wrote:

>On 5/6/2021 1:02 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:56:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
>>> Some dear ex-neighbors of ours moved to to about 30 miles south of
>>> Roanoke VA.
>>> They are in a rural setting, beautiful green grass rolling hills, 13
>>> acres with a creek at the back of the property and in the middle a 9200
>>> sq ft 3 story home. $525K. They bought 18 months ago.
>>
>> The nearest grocery stores is in Roanoke, right?
>>
>
>
>Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
>long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
>seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!

It takes a lot more than "a few seconds" to keep the attributions
right. It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice
but it's not as simple as you propose. IOW, stop whining.

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 2:54:09 PM UTC-4, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> On Thu, 6 May 2021 13:32:04 -0400, Bill <none...@att.net> wrote:
>
> >On 5/6/2021 1:02 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >> On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:56:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >
> >>> Some dear ex-neighbors of ours moved to to about 30 miles south of
> >>> Roanoke VA.
> >>> They are in a rural setting, beautiful green grass rolling hills, 13
> >>> acres with a creek at the back of the property and in the middle a 9200
> >>> sq ft 3 story home. $525K. They bought 18 months ago.
> >>
> >> The nearest grocery stores is in Roanoke, right?
> >>
> >
> >
> >Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
> >long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
> >seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!

> It takes a lot more than "a few seconds" to keep the attributions
> right. It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice
> but it's not as simple as you propose. IOW, stop whining.

+1

Due to sloppy trimming, I was recently “credited” with saying
something that somebody else posted. While I pointed out the
error in my response, there’s no editing a previous post, so the
error is a permanent part of the internet now.

On 5/5/2021 2:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

>
> I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.
>
> They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
> August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.
>
> They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
> house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
> that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
> feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
> he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
> in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
> house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
> the cause of the increase.
>
> No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
> in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
> if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
> them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
> being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
> again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
> orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
> being impacted.
>
> She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
> a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
> placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
> was driving the price way beyond their budget.
>
>
Bought my house and closed in December 2018. They started at $230 but
by the time we added the options it was $270 + the lot. The equivalent
new model now starts in the low $300s, plus options.

Looks like the same house is about $70k more than three years ago. Seem
to be selling well too.

On 5/6/2021 11:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

>> This is a classic case of some one pissing on your boots and telling you
>> it is raining.
>>
>> Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
>> been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
>> uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
>> extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
>> pricing.
>
> Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
> involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
> trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
> at home.
>
> Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
> must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.
>

There are about 300,000 people a year moving to Florida. Even at 3 to a
household that is a lot pf houses or apartments. Building is crazy in
this area

There is talk of a planned community about 10 miles from me with 7000
homes. That will have a population more than the town I moved from.

On 5/6/2021 5:38 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

> Due to sloppy trimming, I was recently “credited” with saying
> something that somebody else posted. While I pointed out the
> error in my response, there’s no editing a previous post, so the
> error is a permanent part of the internet now.
>

Yeah, all my neighbors were talking about that.

On 5/6/2021 1:08 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
> I'm somewhat familiar with the area. It was a midpoint for our annual
> pilgrimage home. I also worked a bit West of there in Akron (lived in
> Kent) for a year. Except for Amish country, a rather depressing area.
> If you have a job, I suppose it's affordable.

Yes, it is a depressed area. I drive 45 minutes to Robinson, PA to work
(very close to the Pittsburgh airport). Most people that have a
half-way decent job commute to Pittsburgh. It's a trade off that one
must be willing to make.

Years ago, when I was still in school, my parents moved us here from
Pittsburgh because my Step dad worked at the Nuclear power plant in
Shippingport... it took his commute from an hour to 15 minutes. I can't
justify leaving because I feel much more comfortable than I did in the
city. Cost of living in PA is far greater, unfortunately.

On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>>
>>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>>> 1997.
>>>>
>>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>>> $60K.
>>>
>>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>>
>>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>>
>>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>>
>>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>>
>>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>>> the taxes on it.
>>>
>> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
>> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
>> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
>> when we moved here.
>>
>> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
>> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
>> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>>
>> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
>> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
>> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
>> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
>> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>>
>> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
>> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
>> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
>> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
>> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>>
>>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>>
>>>
>>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>>
>> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
>> already been dropped by then.
>>
>> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
>> long?
>>
>
>
>You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>
> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>
>Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
>smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
>$6 hundred.
Bet you get your money's worth in Arkansas, service wise. Pay
nothing, get nothing.