On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>
>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>
>
>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>
>>>>
>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>>>
>>> I thought you were.
>
>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>> increases in the last 7 months.
>>
>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>
> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
> are buying or selling.
>
> Lack of supply, high demand.

Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.

>
> Houses in south San Jose are going for $250,000 over list or more.
>
> House next door out here in the sticks (1 Hectare, 45 miles south of SJC)
> was listed for 1.3 and had close to a dozen offers, I haven't
> seen the final price, but I suspect it was close to 1.7M.
>

On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>
>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>> are screwed.
>>>
>>>
>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>
>>
>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>
>40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

>Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

>Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.
>
>
>>
>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>
The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.

On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> > Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>
> >>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> >>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
> >>>>>
> >
> >>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> >>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
> >
> >>>>
> >>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
> >>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
> >>>
> >>> I thought you were.
> >
> >> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
> >> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
> >> increases in the last 7 months.
> >>
> >> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
> >
> > There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
> > are buying or selling.
> >
> > Lack of supply, high demand.
> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>
> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
> people will pay.
> >

What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/

On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>>>
>>>
>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>>>>>
>>>>> I thought you were.
>>>
>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
>>>>
>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>>>
>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>>> are buying or selling.
>>>
>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>>
>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>> people will pay.
>>>
>
> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>
> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
> supplies.
>
> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
>
> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
> years ago due to the lack of supply.
>
> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
> getting a house built.
>
> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>
> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>
>
>
>
>
Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

And all of these homes are going up at a going up and being sold at an
alarming rate.

Covid was a dream come true for home builders and the Democratic party
leaders.

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>
>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>
>>>
>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>
>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>> 1997.
>
> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
> $60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%

>
>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>
> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>
>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>
> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
> $8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

>>
>>
>>>
>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>
> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>

We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I thought you were.
>>>>
>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
>>>>>
>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>>>>
>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>>>> are buying or selling.
>>>>
>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>>>
>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>>> people will pay.
>>>>
>>
>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>>
>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
>> supplies.
>>
>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
>>
>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
>>
>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
>> getting a house built.
>>
>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>>
>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
>Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
>really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
>
>New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
>new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
>our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
>home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
>started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
>field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
>the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
>homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.

On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I thought you were.
>>>>>
>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>>>>>
>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>>>>> are buying or selling.
>>>>>
>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>>>>
>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>>>> people will pay.
>>>>>
>>>
>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>>>
>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
>>> supplies.
>>>
>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
>>>
>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
>>>
>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
>>> getting a house built.
>>>
>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>>>
>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
>>
>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
>> homes since October.
>
> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....

No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

>
> Record low inventory:
>
> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
>
> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
>
> Supply and Demand indeed.

Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> > Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> >>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> >>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
> >>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> I thought you were.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
> >>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
> >>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
> >>>>> are buying or selling.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
> >>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
> >>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
> >>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
> >>>>
> >>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
> >>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
> >>>> people will pay.
> >>>>>
> >>>
> >>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
> >>>
> >>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
> >>> supplies.
> >>>
> >>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
> >>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
> >>>
> >>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
> >>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
> >>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
> >>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
> >>>
> >>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
> >>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
> >>> getting a house built.
> >>>
> >>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
> >>>
> >>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
> >> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
> >> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
> >>
> >> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
> >> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
> >> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
> >> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December..
> >> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
> >> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
> >> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
> >> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
> >> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
> >> homes since October.
> >
> > 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
>
> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
> >
> > Record low inventory:
> >
> > https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
> > https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
> >
> > "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
> > broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
> >
> > Supply and Demand indeed.
> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.

I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
no shortage?

e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lumber-shortage-2021-7-reasons-wood-prices-are-soaring/

In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
$16K to $24K on average.

I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)

On Monday, May 3, 2021 at 7:28:36 PM UTC-4, Markem618 wrote:
> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

> >Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
> >crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

> Seems to be an urban phenomenon, we are rural area near a university.
> Prices are normal you can buy a house for 100 thousand that is really
> decent. But we will look to move at some point, mowing about 2 1/2
> acres with ruts and mole hills realigns things here and there.

The relevant difference between urban and rural is space to build. Where there's space, the price of an existing house can't significantly exceed what it costs to buy a plot and build a new one. Where we live (NYC), there's hardly anywhere left to build, except perhaps UP. But pretty much everywhere you could build a single-family home already has a house on it. Some years ago it was popular for a developer to buy a big old house, tear it down, and plant three two-family homes in its place.

We have a very small house which - if sold - could buy us several of the (much bigger) homes mentioned on this thread, together. Identical houses are going for 4.5x what we paid 22 years ago. And most of that rise was steady, not just recent.

DerbyDad03 <teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:

> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> > >
> > > Supply and Demand indeed.
> > Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
> > reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>
> I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
> when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
> there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
>
> I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
> your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
> no shortage?
>
> e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lumber-shortage-2021-7-reasons-wood-prices-are-soaring/
>
> In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
> increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
> $16K to $24K on average.

+1

Published: April 26, 2021
<https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/26/lumber-prices-drive-up-new-home-prices/>

"HOUSTON – Homebuyers, builders, and even DIYers are shocked and stuck with crazy-high lumber prices. The
price of lumber has increased about 180% since last year."
[...]
"Hollins says most new home prices are going up by $30,000 to $40,000 to help builders cover the cost of
lumber. There are several reasons for the increase."
>
> I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
> mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)

On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> > Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> >>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> >>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
> >>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> >>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> >>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
> >>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> I thought you were.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
> >>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
> >>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
> >>>>> are buying or selling.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
> >>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
> >>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
> >>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
> >>>>
> >>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
> >>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
> >>>> people will pay.
> >>>>>
> >>>
> >>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
> >>>
> >>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
> >>> supplies.
> >>>
> >>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
> >>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
> >>>
> >>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
> >>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
> >>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
> >>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
> >>>
> >>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
> >>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
> >>> getting a house built.
> >>>
> >>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
> >>>
> >>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
> >> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
> >> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
> >>
> >> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
> >> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
> >> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
> >> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December..
> >> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
> >> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
> >> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
> >> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
> >> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
> >> homes since October.
> >
> > 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
>
> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
> >
> > Record low inventory:
> >
> > https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
> > https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
> >
> > "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
> > broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
> >
> > Supply and Demand indeed.
> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.

They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.

They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
the cause of the increase.

No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
being impacted.

She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
was driving the price way beyond their budget.

On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:

>On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>
>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>
>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>> 1997.
>>
>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>> $60K.
>
>I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>
>
>>
>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>
>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>
>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>
>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>
>Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>the taxes on it.
>
We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>
>>>>
>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>
>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>
>
>We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?

On Tue, 4 May 2021 19:48:13 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
<teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:

>On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> > Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>> >> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>> >>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>> >>>
>> >>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> >>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>> >>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>> >>>>>
>> >
>> >>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>> >>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>> >
>> >>>>
>> >>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>> >>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>> >>>
>> >>> I thought you were.
>> >
>> >> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>> >> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>> >> increases in the last 7 months.
>> >>
>> >> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>> >
>> > There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>> > are buying or selling.
>> >
>> > Lack of supply, high demand.
>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>>
>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>> people will pay.
>> >
>
>What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>
>The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
>supplies.
>
>My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
>month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

It's not even that here. I was just told by a neighbor that a house
on our street is under contract. I didn't even know it was on the
market. The RE agent didn't have time to put the sign out. This
year, every house in the neighborhood has sold within a week.

We've driven around many new developments (SWMBO wants to move)
recently. Every house being built as spec has a "under contract" sign
on it. Several developments have "Sold Out" signs on them, with no
dirt moved on half the sites.
>
>He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
>market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
>any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
>years ago due to the lack of supply.
>
>Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
>discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
>getting a house built.
>
>https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>
>https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>

Just go to the BORG and look. They're pretty much a consistent markup
sort of place.

On Wed, 05 May 2021 16:21:04 +0000, Spalted Walt
<respond@newsgroup.pls> wrote:

>DerbyDad03 <teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:
>
>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> > >
>> > > Supply and Demand indeed.
>> > Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>> > reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>>
>> I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
>> when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
>> there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
>>
>> I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
>> your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
>> no shortage?
>>
>> e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lumber-shortage-2021-7-reasons-wood-prices-are-soaring/
>>
>> In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
>> increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
>> $16K to $24K on average.
>
>+1
>
>Published: April 26, 2021
><https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/26/lumber-prices-drive-up-new-home-prices/>
>
>"HOUSTON – Homebuyers, builders, and even DIYers are shocked and stuck with crazy-high lumber prices. The
>price of lumber has increased about 180% since last year."

I was looking at my supply of plywood, in the basement. I thought,
"Hmm". It's all different sorts, though.

>[...]
>"Hollins says most new home prices are going up by $30,000 to $40,000 to help builders cover the cost of
>lumber. There are several reasons for the increase."
>>
>> I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
>> mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)

On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>
> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>
> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
> would choose the one that they liked the best.
>
> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
>
> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
>
> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
> close!
>
> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
>
> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
> for the inspection.
>
> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>
>
Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
- all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.

nixie tube X11R6 widgetMichael Trew <mt999999@ymail.com> writes:
>On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>
>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>
>> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
>> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
>> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
>> would choose the one that they liked the best.
>>
>> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
>> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
>> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
>> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
>> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
>> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
>>
>> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
>> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
>> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
>> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
>> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
>> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
>>
>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>> close!
>>
>> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
>> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
>> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
>> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
>> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
>>
>> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
>> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
>> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
>> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
>> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
>> for the inspection.
>>
>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>
>>
>Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
>Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
>prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
>paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
>- all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.

I believe "DerbyDad03" is somewhere in that area.

I see prices in Cadiz (picked at random) range from 40k for 1800sqft to
700k for 6000 sqft (413 N Main, cadiz).

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Cadiz_OH

On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 6:04:47 PM UTC-4, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> nixie tube X11R6 widgetMichael Trew <mt99...@ymail.com> writes:
> >On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
> >> found out that their offer has been accepted.
> >>
> >> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
> >>
> >> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
> >> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
> >> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
> >> would choose the one that they liked the best.
> >>
> >> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
> >> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
> >> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
> >> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
> >> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
> >> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
> >>
> >> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies..
> >> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
> >> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
> >> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
> >> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
> >> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
> >>
> >> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
> >> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
> >> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
> >> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
> >> close!
> >>
> >> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
> >> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
> >> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
> >> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
> >> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
> >>
> >> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
> >> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
> >> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
> >> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
> >> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
> >> for the inspection.
> >>
> >> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
> >> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
> >>
> >>
> >Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
> >Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
> >prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
> >paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
> >- all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.
> I believe "DerbyDad03" is somewhere in that area.
>
> I see prices in Cadiz (picked at random) range from 40k for 1800sqft to
> 700k for 6000 sqft (413 N Main, cadiz).
>
> https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Cadiz_OH

360 miles west in Indiana.

Hard to use a simple price/size comparison. Within 8 miles
$60K gets you 928 sq ft, $960K gets you 988 sq ft. It depends
on how much land you want. .5 acres or 38 acres.

The same holds for other house/lot sizes, of course.

The house in question is 2300 sq ft on 2.5 acres, at the end
of a cul-de-sac. Farm land on 2 sides. Selling price range on
Zillow is $314K - $423K They won't know what they will be
paying until the appraisal comes in. Add $15K up to a max
of $425K.

On Wed, 05 May 2021 15:55:20 -0400, Michael Trew <mt999999@ymail.com>
wrote:

>On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>
>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>
>> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
>> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
>> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
>> would choose the one that they liked the best.
>>
>> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
>> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
>> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
>> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
>> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
>> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
>>
>> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
>> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
>> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
>> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
>> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
>> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
>>
>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>> close!
>>
>> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
>> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
>> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
>> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
>> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
>>
>> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
>> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
>> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
>> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
>> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
>> for the inspection.
>>
>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>
>>
>Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
>Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
>prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
>paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
>- all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.

That's pretty bad, actually. You're paying 1.5% of the value of the
property in taxes. I pay less than half that (.065%).

On Wed, 5 May 2021 16:47:50 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
<teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:

>On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 6:04:47 PM UTC-4, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> nixie tube X11R6 widgetMichael Trew <mt99...@ymail.com> writes:
>> >On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>> >> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>> >> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>> >>
>> >> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>> >>
>> >> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
>> >> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
>> >> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
>> >> would choose the one that they liked the best.
>> >>
>> >> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
>> >> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
>> >> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
>> >> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
>> >> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
>> >> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
>> >>
>> >> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
>> >> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
>> >> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
>> >> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
>> >> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
>> >> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
>> >>
>> >> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>> >> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>> >> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>> >> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>> >> close!
>> >>
>> >> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
>> >> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
>> >> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
>> >> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
>> >> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
>> >>
>> >> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
>> >> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
>> >> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
>> >> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
>> >> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
>> >> for the inspection.
>> >>
>> >> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>> >> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>> >>
>> >>
>> >Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
>> >Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
>> >prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
>> >paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
>> >- all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.
>> I believe "DerbyDad03" is somewhere in that area.
>>
>> I see prices in Cadiz (picked at random) range from 40k for 1800sqft to
>> 700k for 6000 sqft (413 N Main, cadiz).
>>
>> https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Cadiz_OH
>
>360 miles west in Indiana.
>
>Hard to use a simple price/size comparison. Within 8 miles
>$60K gets you 928 sq ft, $960K gets you 988 sq ft. It depends
>on how much land you want. .5 acres or 38 acres.
>
>The same holds for other house/lot sizes, of course.
>
>The house in question is 2300 sq ft on 2.5 acres, at the end
>of a cul-de-sac. Farm land on 2 sides. Selling price range on
>Zillow is $314K - $423K They won't know what they will be
>paying until the appraisal comes in. Add $15K up to a max
>of $425K.
Here $60K doesn't buy you a lot, and if you have a lot it will ALMOST
build you a double garage

On 5/5/2021 7:47 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 6:04:47 PM UTC-4, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> nixie tube X11R6 widgetMichael Trew<mt99...@ymail.com> writes:
>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>
>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>
>>>> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
>>>> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
>>>> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
>>>> would choose the one that they liked the best.
>>>>
>>>> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
>>>> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
>>>> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
>>>> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
>>>> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
>>>> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
>>>>
>>>> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies..
>>>> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
>>>> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
>>>> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
>>>> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
>>>> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
>>>>
>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>> close!
>>>>
>>>> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
>>>> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
>>>> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
>>>> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
>>>> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
>>>>
>>>> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
>>>> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
>>>> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
>>>> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
>>>> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
>>>> for the inspection.
>>>>
>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>
>>>>
>>> Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
>>> Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
>>> prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
>>> paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
>>> - all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.
>> I believe "DerbyDad03" is somewhere in that area.
>>
>> I see prices in Cadiz (picked at random) range from 40k for 1800sqft to
>> 700k for 6000 sqft (413 N Main, cadiz).
>>
>> https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Cadiz_OH
>
> 360 miles west in Indiana.
>
> Hard to use a simple price/size comparison. Within 8 miles
> $60K gets you 928 sq ft, $960K gets you 988 sq ft. It depends
> on how much land you want. .5 acres or 38 acres.
>
> The same holds for other house/lot sizes, of course.
>
> The house in question is 2300 sq ft on 2.5 acres, at the end
> of a cul-de-sac. Farm land on 2 sides. Selling price range on
> Zillow is $314K - $423K They won't know what they will be
> paying until the appraisal comes in. Add $15K up to a max
> of $425K.

That's a fair point. I'm on a small city lot. Defining small as a
fraction of an acre, maybe 50 by 150 feet. Less than 0.2 acres. I own
a couple vacant lots across the street as well. I figured that was
smart move for less than $200 when they came up for auditor's sale.

On 5/5/2021 8:39 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
> On Wed, 05 May 2021 15:55:20 -0400, Michael Trew<mt999999@ymail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>
>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>
>>> First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
>>> hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
>>> where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
>>> would choose the one that they liked the best.
>>>
>>> Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
>>> haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
>>> and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
>>> price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
>>> They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
>>> listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.
>>>
>>> They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
>>> The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
>>> automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
>>> submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
>>> clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
>>> the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.
>>>
>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>> close!
>>>
>>> So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
>>> $410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
>>> backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
>>> enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
>>> to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.
>>>
>>> One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
>>> accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
>>> inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
>>> negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
>>> is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
>>> for the inspection.
>>>
>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>
>>>
>> Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
>> Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
>> prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
>> paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
>> - all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.
>
> That's pretty bad, actually. You're paying 1.5% of the value of the
> property in taxes. I pay less than half that (.065%).

Unfortunately, my city has one of the highest tax rates in Columbiana
county. That being said, all factored in, including the cost of other
taxes, groceries, general goods, and cost of living in general here,
it's hard to beat this area for affordability. The greater Youngstown
(OH) region has been listed as one of the best places to live in the US
based on cost of living.

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
> On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>
>> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, krw@notreal.com wrote:
>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.xxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
>>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
>>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
>>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
>>>>>>>>>>> close!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
>>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!".   That said, I congratulate the
>>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
>>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
>>>>>>>>>> it! :)
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
>>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
>>>>>>>>    I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
>>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
>>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -  but
>>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Exactly.  A scenario like:  I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
>>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
>>>>>>> are screwed.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
>>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
>>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
>>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
>>>>
>>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
>>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
>>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
>>>> 1997.
>>>
>>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
>>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
>>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
>>> $60K.
>>
>> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
>>
>>
>>>
>>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
>>>
>>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
>>>
>>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
>>>
>>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
>>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
>>> $8K but it's not listed now.
>>
>> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
>> the taxes on it.
>>
> We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
> house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
> size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
> when we moved here.
>
> When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
> $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
> looked at her like she had a third eye.
>
> That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
> University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
> (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
> hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
> There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
>
> Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
> discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
> completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
> retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
> retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
>>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
>>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
>>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
>>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
>>>>>
>>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
>>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
>>>
>>
>> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
>> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
>> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
>> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
>> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
>
> An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
> already been dropped by then.
>
> I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
> long?
>

You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:13:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
> On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> > On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >
> >> On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
> >>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>
> >>>> On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >>>>> On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
> >>>>>
> >>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
> >>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
> >>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski <e...@snet.xxx> wrote:
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>> Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
> >>>>>>>>>>> based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
> >>>>>>>>>>> clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
> >>>>>>>>>>> $13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
> >>>>>>>>>>> close!
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>> I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
> >>>>>>>>>> I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
> >>>>>>>>>> buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
> >>>>>>>>>> surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
> >>>>>>>>>> it! :)
> >>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>> I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
> >>>>>>>>> investment when interest rates are back up.
> >>>>>>>> I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
> >>>>>>>> in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
> >>>>>>>> likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
> >>>>>>>> %7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
> >>>>>>> highest offer is 300k.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
> >>>>>>> are screwed.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
> >>>>>> people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
> >>>>> assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
> >>>>> lucky and had an 800 credit score.
> >>>>
> >>>> 40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
> >>>> interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
> >>>> accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
> >>>> 1997.
> >>>
> >>> When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
> >>> we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
> >>> 30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
> >>> $60K.
> >>
> >> I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%
> >>
> >>
> >>>
> >>>> Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.
> >>>
> >>> Ours is now $304K (Zillow).
> >>>
> >>>> Cash for the next home in 2010.
> >>>
> >>> I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
> >>> later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
> >>> $8K but it's not listed now.
> >>
> >> Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
> >> the taxes on it.
> >>
> > We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
> > house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
> > size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather pissed
> > when we moved here.
> >
> > When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
> > $1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
> > looked at her like she had a third eye.
> >
> > That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
> > University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
> > (and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
> > hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
> > There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.
> >
> > Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
> > discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
> > completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
> > retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
> > retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).
> >>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
> >>>>> cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
> >>>>> drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
> >>>>> away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
> >>>>> still not worth very much more than that - - -
> >>>>>
> >>> The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
> >>> refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.
> >>>
> >>
> >> We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
> >> were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
> >> moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
> >> the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
> >> cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.
> >
> > An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
> > already been dropped by then.
> >
> > I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
> > long?
> >
> You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)
>
> Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.
>
> Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
> The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
> smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
> $6 hundred.

Yet somehow services are provided in both states. Obviously we're lacking
some details.

On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>> On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>> On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>> On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>>> On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>>>>> Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> writes:
>>>>>>>> On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, k...@notreal.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon <lcb11211@swbelldotnet> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
>>>>>>>>>>> found out that their offer has been accepted.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Here is how houses are being bought these days…
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
>>>>>>>>>>> (15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
>>>>>>>>>> crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I thought you were.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
>>>>>>>> September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
>>>>>>>> increases in the last 7 months.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
>>>>>>> are buying or selling.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Lack of supply, high demand.
>>>>>> Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
>>>>>> available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
>>>>>> is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
>>>>>> is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
>>>>>> people will pay.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
>>>>>
>>>>> The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
>>>>> supplies.
>>>>>
>>>>> My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
>>>>> month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
>>>>>
>>>>> He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
>>>>> market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
>>>>> any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
>>>>> years ago due to the lack of supply.
>>>>>
>>>>> Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
>>>>> discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
>>>>> getting a house built.
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-homebuying-soaring-lumber-prices-new-homes-construction-2021-3
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/cost-build-new-home-is-increasing-lumber-prices-skyrocket/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>> Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
>>>> Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
>>>> really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
>>>>
>>>> New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
>>>> new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
>>>> our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
>>>> home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
>>>> Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
>>>> Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
>>>> started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
>>>> field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
>>>> the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
>>>> homes since October.
>>>
>>> 50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
>> No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
>> talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
>> any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
>> neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
>>
>> And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
>> that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
>>>
>>> Record low inventory:
>>>
>>> https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/houston-real-estate-market/
>>> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-prices-shoot-up-as-number-of-listings-drop-15852599.php
>>>
>>> "\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
>>> broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
>>>
>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>
> I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
> when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
> there is. I'm asking, not arguing.

Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.

More houses, new starts and actual neighborhoods, are being built near
me than in the past 10 years. Builders for a short, period of time last
year, had difficulty in getting materials. That was over in a matter of
weeks. I see no shortages of any building materials including hardwood
materials at all.
As has been reported to my by a contractor friend in SA, Tx his friends
in the suppliers end of the construction business have admitted that
materials are readily available and they are making a killing as their
cost's have gone back down but their prices have not.

>
> I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
> your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
> no shortage?

Articles are always insignificant history reports.

>
> e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lumber-shortage-2021-7-reasons-wood-prices-are-soaring/
>
> In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
> increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
> $16K to $24K on average.

Millennials and first time home buyers are pushing the new home market
in the Houston area and apparently through out the country.

We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
material shortages.

That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.

So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
sell the home for $70K extra himself.

On 5/5/2021 11:21 AM, Spalted Walt wrote:
> DerbyDad03 <teamarrows@eznet.net> wrote:
>
>> On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Supply and Demand indeed.
>>> Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
>>> reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
>>
>> I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
>> when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
>> there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
>>
>> I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
>> your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
>> no shortage?
>>
>> e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lumber-shortage-2021-7-reasons-wood-prices-are-soaring/
>>
>> In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
>> increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
>> $16K to $24K on average.
>
> +1
>
> Published: April 26, 2021
> <https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/26/lumber-prices-drive-up-new-home-prices/>
>
> "HOUSTON – Homebuyers, builders, and even DIYers are shocked and stuck with crazy-high lumber prices. The
> price of lumber has increased about 180% since last year."
> [...]
> "Hollins says most new home prices are going up by $30,000 to $40,000 to help builders cover the cost of
> lumber. There are several reasons for the increase."
>>
>> I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
>> mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)

Soooo the cost of construction materials in a new home is expensive but
not that expensive. I was told by our builder that the materials cost
of the average home was $35K and the average cost of the homes were
$350K. They expected the cost of materials to go up by $12K on our home
so we needed to go into contract to lock in the price. We did but the
builder reneged 2 weeks later. Our builder on average is making $70K
more on a home today than 5 months ago. Do the math.