The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.

Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.

The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”

Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html

On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>
>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>
>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>
>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>
>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html

India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
but cases peaked over a month ago.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

On Tuesday, August 10, 2021 at 12:30:54 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
> <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
> >
> >Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.

More contagious than measles?

> >The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”

Nobody is offering me one.

> >Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.

It lets the virus multiply, which does give to a chance to mutate. The more virulent variants do get selected, and do tend to take over.
> >https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>
> India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
> but cases peaked over a month ago.
>
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

The US managed to pull the same kind of trick before vaccination got under way.

> Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.

Rich countries have aircraft to take infected out to infect new communities.. Even the US took quite a while to get the epidemic out into the boonies.

The process is slower in poor countries, though Peru has now managed to get to 5,883 death per million population. The US used to be a world leader but now 1900 ppm leaves it at 21st. The new outbreak in Australia has got us up to 36 ppm deaths, but we still languish at 167.

We hope to get most of the population vaccinated by the end of the year. The third world will probably clock up a few more deaths before they start getting enough vaccine doses.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>
>>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>
>>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>
>>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>
>>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>
>India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
>but cases peaked over a month ago.
>
>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
>
>Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.

Yeah. I'd bet that in the vast countryside where many Indian poor
live, nobody is really counting. Even in the urban areas, few are
counting.

Most of the third world is like that.

In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.

Joe Gwinn

On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joegwinn@comcast.net>
wrote:

>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
>wrote:
>
>>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
>><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>>
>>>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>>
>>>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>>
>>>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>>
>>>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>>
>>India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
>>but cases peaked over a month ago.
>>
>>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
>>
>>Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.
>
>Yeah. I'd bet that in the vast countryside where many Indian poor
>live, nobody is really counting. Even in the urban areas, few are
>counting.
>
>Most of the third world is like that.
>
>In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.
>
>Joe Gwinn

Or maybe delta has changed the game.

Look at the Netherlands; a huge fast spike with relatively few deaths.

On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 10:17:33 -0700, John Larkin
<jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joegwinn@comcast.net>
>wrote:
>
>>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
>>wrote:
>>
>>>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
>>><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>>>
>>>>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>>>
>>>>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>>>
>>>>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>>>
>>>>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>>>
>>>India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
>>>but cases peaked over a month ago.
>>>
>>>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
>>>
>>>Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.
>>
>>Yeah. I'd bet that in the vast countryside where many Indian poor
>>live, nobody is really counting. Even in the urban areas, few are
>>counting.
>>
>>Most of the third world is like that.
>>
>>In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.
>>
>>Joe Gwinn
>
>Or maybe delta has changed the game.

For the worse. But still this is nothing like the plagues of ancient
times.

>Look at the Netherlands; a huge fast spike with relatively few deaths.

Netherlands has a real medical system, and vaccines.

Joe Gwinn

On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joegwinn@comcast.net>
wrote:

>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
>wrote:
>
>>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
>><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>>
>>>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>>
>>>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>>
>>>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>>
>>>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>>
>>India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
>>but cases peaked over a month ago.
>>
>>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
>>
>>Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.
>
>Yeah. I'd bet that in the vast countryside where many Indian poor
>live, nobody is really counting. Even in the urban areas, few are
>counting.

If people don't get sick enough to go to the hospital they don't get
counted. In the dirt-poor countryside they die and don't necessarily
get counted ever. Years from now someone will do a proper analysis
based on excess deaths and other indicators (some deaths will be
deferred and will show up later) and we'll have better numbers.

>Most of the third world is like that.
>
>In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.
>
>Joe Gwinn

Deaths are strongly correlated with age. India has a median age in the
20s. Africa is much younger again.

--
Best regards,
Spehro Pefhany

On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:37:04 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joegwinn@comcast.net>
wrote:

>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 10:17:33 -0700, John Larkin
><jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:
>
>>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joegwinn@comcast.net>
>>wrote:
>>
>>>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
>>>wrote:
>>>
>>>>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
>>>><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>>>>
>>>>>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>>>>
>>>>>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>>>>
>>>>>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>>>>
>>>>>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>>>>
>>>>India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
>>>>but cases peaked over a month ago.
>>>>
>>>>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
>>>>
>>>>Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.
>>>
>>>Yeah. I'd bet that in the vast countryside where many Indian poor
>>>live, nobody is really counting. Even in the urban areas, few are
>>>counting.
>>>
>>>Most of the third world is like that.
>>>
>>>In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.
>>>
>>>Joe Gwinn
>>
>>Or maybe delta has changed the game.
>
>For the worse. But still this is nothing like the plagues of ancient
>times.
>
>

No. It's much better than the original. It rips through a population
in about a month and fades away, and doesn't kill many people. No time
for vaccines or masks or lockdowns.

I wonder if it will basically immunize India. It looks like it has.

>>Look at the Netherlands; a huge fast spike with relatively few deaths.
>
>Netherlands has a real medical system, and vaccines.

That didn't prevent the recent spike.

>
>Joe Gwinn

On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 12:31:09 -0700, John Larkin
<jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:37:04 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joegwinn@comcast.net>
>wrote:
>
>>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 10:17:33 -0700, John Larkin
>><jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:
>>
>>>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joegwinn@comcast.net>
>>>wrote:
>>>
>>>>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
>>>>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
>>>>><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>>>>>
>>>>>India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
>>>>>but cases peaked over a month ago.
>>>>>
>>>>>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
>>>>>
>>>>>Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.
>>>>
>>>>Yeah. I'd bet that in the vast countryside where many Indian poor
>>>>live, nobody is really counting. Even in the urban areas, few are
>>>>counting.
>>>>
>>>>Most of the third world is like that.
>>>>
>>>>In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.
>>>>
>>>>Joe Gwinn
>>>
>>>Or maybe delta has changed the game.
>>
>>For the worse. But still this is nothing like the plagues of ancient
>>times.
>>
>>
>
>No. It's much better than the original. It rips through a population
>in about a month and fades away, and doesn't kill many people. No time
>for vaccines or masks or lockdowns.

We are all lucky in this. The ancient plagues killed a major fraction
of the population.

>I wonder if it will basically immunize India. It looks like it has.

It will most certainly do that, the old-fashioned way. But most of
the action will not make it to the news, even within India. A large
fraction of the Indian population is dirt poor, and far from the big
cities.

>>>Look at the Netherlands; a huge fast spike with relatively few deaths.
>>
>>Netherlands has a real medical system, and vaccines.
>
>That didn't prevent the recent spike.

Probably Delta, working its way through. But deaths didn't get all
that high, likely due to vaccinations.

In lots of places, the rise in cases was clearly exponential, doubling
every week or so, but deaths were far lower than in the initial waves.

Joe Gwinn

On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:56:00 -0400, Spehro Pefhany
<speffSNIP@interlogDOTyou.knowwhat> wrote:

>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joegwinn@comcast.net>
>wrote:
>
>>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
>>wrote:
>>
>>>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
>>><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>>>
>>>>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>>>
>>>>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>>>
>>>>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>>>
>>>>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>>>
>>>India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
>>>but cases peaked over a month ago.
>>>
>>>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
>>>
>>>Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.
>>
>>Yeah. I'd bet that in the vast countryside where many Indian poor
>>live, nobody is really counting. Even in the urban areas, few are
>>counting.
>
>If people don't get sick enough to go to the hospital they don't get
>counted. In the dirt-poor countryside they die and don't necessarily
>get counted ever. Years from now someone will do a proper analysis
>based on excess deaths and other indicators (some deaths will be
>deferred and will show up later) and we'll have better numbers.

I would imagine that the first wave was pretty bad, but the original
variants were soon running out of susceptible. The new variants are
finding some success, but are hindered by family immunity in the
survivors of the first wave.

>>Most of the third world is like that.
>>
>>In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.
>
>Deaths are strongly correlated with age. India has a median age in the
>20s. Africa is much younger again.

Yeah, this has to help. We are lucky here. Many viruses in that
family mainly attack the young.

Joe Gwinn

On Tuesday, August 10, 2021 at 5:31:20 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
> On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:37:04 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joeg...@comcast.net> wrote:
> >On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 10:17:33 -0700, John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:
> >>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joeg...@comcast.net> wrote:
> >>>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> >>>>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

<snip>

> >>Or maybe delta has changed the game.
> >
> >For the worse. But still this is nothing like the plagues of ancient times.
> >
> No. It's much better than the original. It rips through a population in about a month and fades away, and doesn't kill many people.

It's not working that way in NSW. It started on 17th June, and case number have been rising steadily ever since - they are now up to 356 cases in the past 24 hours, and it has killed about a dozen people since then, which makes it roughly as deadly as earlier versions.

> No time for vaccines or masks or lockdowns.

Not here. We are on our second month of lockdown and compulsory masks anywhere public and indoors. The lockdown is more rigorous in the less-well off suburbs where most of the new cases are still showing up. There is a drive to get more people vaccinated in those suburbs, but there is still a faint hope that an even more rigorously enforced lockdown can eventually get the case numbers to start falling. Delta is remarkably infectious, and one irresponsible idiot can infect a couple of dozen people, and frequently has. We get non-stop news items about them.
> I wonder if it will basically immunize India. It looks like it has.

Silly idea.

> >>Look at the Netherlands; a huge fast spike with relatively few deaths.

Younger people are less likely to die - but some of them do.
> >Netherlands has a real medical system, and vaccines.
>
> That didn't prevent the recent spike.

It looks as if you need 90% or more fully vaccinated to get herd immunity against the Delta strain. Nobody has got there yet. Kids seem to be spreading it, and there was a reluctance to vaccinate them, though it is happening in NSW now.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Tuesday, August 10, 2021 at 6:31:03 AM UTC+10, Joe Gwinn wrote:
> On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:56:00 -0400, Spehro Pefhany <spef...@interlogDOTyou.knowwhat> wrote:
> >On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joeg...@comcast.net> wrote:
> >>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> >>>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

<snip>

> >If people don't get sick enough to go to the hospital they don't get
> >counted. In the dirt-poor countryside they die and don't necessarily
> >get counted ever. Years from now someone will do a proper analysis
> >based on excess deaths and other indicators (some deaths will be
> >deferred and will show up later) and we'll have better numbers.
>
> I would imagine that the first wave was pretty bad, but the original
> variants were soon running out of susceptible.

Wrong. The first wave frightened everybody into self-imposed lockdown, even where the politicians weren't willing to risk the damage to the economy (which got wrecked anyway).

> The new variants are finding some success, but are hindered by family immunity in the survivors of the first wave.

Not an evidence-based claim.

> >>Most of the third world is like that.
> >>
> >>In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.

It doesn't have to be. We can churn out a lot more vaccine than the first world needs, and once we've got the first world to herd immunity levels (which may take some arm-twisting) we can keep the production lines going.

> >Deaths are strongly correlated with age. India has a median age in the 20s. Africa is much younger again.
>
> Yeah, this has to help. We are lucky here. Many viruses in that family mainly attack the young.

Delta does seem to be better at infecting the young than earlier variants were..

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:56:00 -0400, Spehro Pefhany
<speffSNIP@interlogDOTyou.knowwhat> wrote:

>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joegwinn@comcast.net>
>wrote:
>
>>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
>>wrote:
>>
>>>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
>>><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>>>
>>>>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>>>
>>>>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>>>
>>>>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>>>
>>>>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>>>
>>>India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
>>>but cases peaked over a month ago.
>>>
>>>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
>>>
>>>Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.
>>
>>Yeah. I'd bet that in the vast countryside where many Indian poor
>>live, nobody is really counting. Even in the urban areas, few are
>>counting.
>
>If people don't get sick enough to go to the hospital they don't get
>counted. In the dirt-poor countryside they die and don't necessarily
>get counted ever. Years from now someone will do a proper analysis
>based on excess deaths and other indicators (some deaths will be
>deferred and will show up later) and we'll have better numbers.

Rich or poor, something must explain the radical drop-off of reported
cases - down over 10:1 - since May 8.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

Reported deaths dropped radically too, with the usual 2 week lag.

>
>>Most of the third world is like that.
>>
>>In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.
>>
>>Joe Gwinn
>
>Deaths are strongly correlated with age. India has a median age in the
>20s. Africa is much younger again.

A sensible strategy, which we didn't use, is to let it rip among
healthy young people and maximally protect the old and compromised,
and get it over with. Hard lockdowns kill more people in poor
countries than the virus itself.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

On Tuesday, August 10, 2021 at 2:22:27 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:56:00 -0400, Spehro Pefhany
> <spef...@interlogDOTyou.knowwhat> wrote:
>
> >On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joeg...@comcast.net>
> >wrote:
> >
> >>On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com
> >>wrote:
> >>
> >>>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
> >>><bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>
> >>>>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
> >>>>
> >>>>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
> >>>>
> >>>>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
> >>>>
> >>>>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
> >>>>
> >>>>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
> >>>
> >>>India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
> >>>but cases peaked over a month ago.
> >>>
> >>>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
> >>>
> >>>Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.
> >>
> >>Yeah. I'd bet that in the vast countryside where many Indian poor
> >>live, nobody is really counting. Even in the urban areas, few are
> >>counting.
> >
> >If people don't get sick enough to go to the hospital they don't get
> >counted. In the dirt-poor countryside they die and don't necessarily
> >get counted ever. Years from now someone will do a proper analysis
> >based on excess deaths and other indicators (some deaths will be
> >deferred and will show up later) and we'll have better numbers.
> Rich or poor, something must explain the radical drop-off of reported
> cases - down over 10:1 - since May 8.
>
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
>
> Reported deaths dropped radically too, with the usual 2 week lag.
> >
> >>Most of the third world is like that.
> >>
> >>In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.

It doesn't have to be. We should be able to vaccinate everybody in a year or two.

> >Deaths are strongly correlated with age. India has a median age in the
> >20s. Africa is much younger again.
>
> A sensible strategy, which we didn't use, is to let it rip among
> healthy young people and maximally protect the old and compromised,
> and get it over with.

It's a lunatic approach, and kills many too many people to be a rationally acceptable solution.

> Hard lockdowns kill more people in poor countries than the virus itself.

Not an evidence-based statement. If the epidemic is killing a lot of people, poor countries lock themselves down, and that does just as much economic damage as an imposed lockdown. Because it is too little too late, it isn't as effective an imposed lockdown, and goes on for longer, and you don't get the government action to keep people fed while it is going on.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 09/08/2021 18:17, John Larkin wrote:
> On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 13:02:12 -0400, Joe Gwinn <joegwinn@comcast.net>
> wrote:
>
>> On Mon, 09 Aug 2021 07:30:43 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
>>> <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>>>
>>>> Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>>>
>>>> The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>>>
>>>> Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>>>
>>>> https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>>>
>>> India is curious. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated
>>> but cases peaked over a month ago.
>>>
>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
>>>
>>> Worldometer shows total deaths at just 307 PPM.
>>
>> Yeah. I'd bet that in the vast countryside where many Indian poor
>> live, nobody is really counting. Even in the urban areas, few are
>> counting.
>>
>> Most of the third world is like that.
>>
>> In these places, herd immunity will be achieved the old-fashioned way.
>>
>> Joe Gwinn
>
> Or maybe delta has changed the game.

Delta has changed the game alright.

It is much more infectious, and will hospitalise, kill or seriously harm
about twice as many unvaccinated individuals as any previous strain.

https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2021/delta-variant-increases-risk-of-hospitalisation

Red states will be in serious trouble when Delta hits the USA. They can
reach herd immunity the old fashioned way but it won't be pretty.

> Look at the Netherlands; a huge fast spike with relatively few deaths.

That is a very good advert for their high proportion of vaccinated
individuals in the population (and they had to close all their
nightclubs to halt the rapid exponential growth curve). The Dutch have
followed a more pragmatic approach than neighbouring Belgium but their
control of Delta is primarily down to the high proportion of the most
vulnerable who have been vaccinated and a strong sense of following what
rules there are to prevent spreading Covid to the letter.

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/vaccinaties

They are amongst the least vaccine sceptical nations on Earth!

By comparison Belgium has way more and stricter Covid rules but breaking
such government rules has always been a national pastime!

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

> A sensible strategy, which we didn't use, is to let it rip among
> healthy young people and maximally protect the old and compromised,
> and get it over with.

Sensible, according to a guy who thinks Trump makes sense? And who
thinks bulls improve china shops?

> Hard lockdowns kill more people in poor
> countries than the virus itself.

Data source? And, what is a 'hard lockdown' and what poor countries have implemented one?

On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:42:51 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

>On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>
>> A sensible strategy, which we didn't use, is to let it rip among
>> healthy young people and maximally protect the old and compromised,
>> and get it over with.
>
>Sensible, according to a guy who thinks Trump makes sense? And who
>thinks bulls improve china shops?

Why do you invent obvious nonsense? It does you no credit.

Discuss the issue if you can.

>
>> Hard lockdowns kill more people in poor
>> countries than the virus itself.
>
>Data source? And, what is a 'hard lockdown' and what poor countries have implemented one?

The lockdowns and economic disruption in developed countries are
killing people in poor countries.

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/german-minister-admits-lockdown-will-kill-more-covid-19-does

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.577740/full

You can look up stuff like this yourself.

Try googling side effects lockdowns hunger or some such.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

On Tuesday, August 10, 2021 at 7:03:45 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:42:51 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> >
> >> A sensible strategy, which we didn't use, is to let it rip among
> >> healthy young people and maximally protect the old and compromised,
> >> and get it over with.
> >
> >Sensible, according to a guy who thinks Trump makes sense? And who
> >thinks bulls improve china shops?

> Why do you invent obvious nonsense? It does you no credit.
>
> Discuss the issue if you can.
> >
> >> Hard lockdowns kill more people in poor
> >> countries than the virus itself.
> >
> >Data source? And, what is a 'hard lockdown' and what poor countries have implemented one?

> The lockdowns and economic disruption in developed countries are
> killing people in poor countries. ...
> Try googling side effects lockdowns hunger or some such.

Google is your enabler, and you are a serial abuser of its ability to
dredge up muck. Poor countries do not generally rely on international trade
for food, clothing, shelter; the 'trickle-down' theory you apparently want to
offer is a bit of handwaving without clarification. I'm unconvinced, because
unlike John Larkin, whit3rd is sometimes a skeptic.

On 2021-08-10, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:42:51 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>>On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>
>>> A sensible strategy, which we didn't use, is to let it rip among
>>> healthy young people and maximally protect the old and compromised,
>>> and get it over with.
>>
>>Sensible, according to a guy who thinks Trump makes sense? And who
>>thinks bulls improve china shops?
>
> Why do you invent obvious nonsense? It does you no credit.

These are both things that you have claimed in the past, and so far as
I am aware have not retracted. Are you indicating that you make claims
that you do not believe to be true?

--
Jasen.

On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 21:20:35 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
<usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:

>On 2021-08-10, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
>> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:42:51 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>>
>>>> A sensible strategy, which we didn't use, is to let it rip among
>>>> healthy young people and maximally protect the old and compromised,
>>>> and get it over with.
>>>
>>>Sensible, according to a guy who thinks Trump makes sense? And who
>>>thinks bulls improve china shops?
>>
>> Why do you invent obvious nonsense? It does you no credit.
>
>These are both things that you have claimed in the past, and so far as
>I am aware have not retracted. Are you indicating that you make claims
>that you do not believe to be true?

Sometimes I speculate about possibilities. That's part of design. It's
a big solution space out there.

Sweden didn't lock down and has had no big delta spike so far. They
are #24 on the european PPM death total list.

I wonder if there has actually ever been a bull in a china shop and,
if so, what happened.

On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 7:53:22 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 21:20:35 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts<use...@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:
> >On 2021-08-10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com <jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
> >> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:42:51 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> >>>
> >>>> A sensible strategy, which we didn't use, is to let it rip among
> >>>> healthy young people and maximally protect the old and compromised,
> >>>> and get it over with.
> >>>
> >>>Sensible, according to a guy who thinks Trump makes sense? And who
> >>>thinks bulls improve china shops?
> >>
> >> Why do you invent obvious nonsense? It does you no credit.
> >
> >These are both things that you have claimed in the past, and so far as
> >I am aware have not retracted. Are you indicating that you make claims
> >that you do not believe to be true?
>
> Sometimes I speculate about possibilities.

Mostly you recycle other people ill-informed speculations, becuase you don't know enough to realise how ill-informed you are.

> That's part of design. It's a big solution space out there.

But you feel the need to invent your own solutions, and become emotionally attached to them. A large part of design is discarding approaches that don't work well enough, and we don't hear you talking about that.
> Sweden didn't lock down and has had no big delta spike so far. They are #24 on the European PPM death total list.

#39 on the world death from Coid-19 per million, at 1438. They've done worse than Germany, and a great deal worse than Norway, which is at 147 (at #136).

Essentially they did the same kind of thoroughly incompetent job as the US, the UK, and a lot of other countries. Australia has done a lot better, but would have done even better if we'd been even more careful.
> I wonder if there has actually ever been a bull in a china shop and, if so, what happened.

Seems unlikely that one has ever got into a china shop. I suppose it might have happened in Pamplona, but they do take care that the bulls don't get anywhere where people might want to take refuge.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 2021-08-10, John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:
> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 21:20:35 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
><usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:
>
>>On 2021-08-10, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
>>> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:42:51 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>>On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> A sensible strategy, which we didn't use, is to let it rip among
>>>>> healthy young people and maximally protect the old and compromised,
>>>>> and get it over with.
>>>>
>>>>Sensible, according to a guy who thinks Trump makes sense? And who
>>>>thinks bulls improve china shops?
>>>
>>> Why do you invent obvious nonsense? It does you no credit.
>>
>>These are both things that you have claimed in the past, and so far as
>>I am aware have not retracted. Are you indicating that you make claims
>>that you do not believe to be true?
>
> Sometimes I speculate about possibilities. That's part of design. It's
> a big solution space out there.
>
> Sweden didn't lock down and has had no big delta spike so far. They
> are #24 on the european PPM death total list.
>
> I wonder if there has actually ever been a bull in a china shop and,
> if so, what happened.

Why do you invent obvious nonsense? It does you no credit.

--
Jasen.

On 8/10/2021 2:53 PM, John Larkin wrote:
> I wonder if there has actually ever been a bull in a china shop and,
> if so, what happened.

It bought setting for 12 -- including soup tureen and gravy boat!

On Wed, 11 Aug 2021 05:02:22 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
<usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:

>On 2021-08-10, John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:
>> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 21:20:35 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
>><usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:
>>
>>>On 2021-08-10, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
>>>> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:42:51 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> A sensible strategy, which we didn't use, is to let it rip among
>>>>>> healthy young people and maximally protect the old and compromised,
>>>>>> and get it over with.
>>>>>
>>>>>Sensible, according to a guy who thinks Trump makes sense? And who
>>>>>thinks bulls improve china shops?
>>>>
>>>> Why do you invent obvious nonsense? It does you no credit.
>>>
>>>These are both things that you have claimed in the past, and so far as
>>>I am aware have not retracted. Are you indicating that you make claims
>>>that you do not believe to be true?
>>
>> Sometimes I speculate about possibilities. That's part of design. It's
>> a big solution space out there.
>>
>> Sweden didn't lock down and has had no big delta spike so far. They
>> are #24 on the european PPM death total list.
>>
>> I wonder if there has actually ever been a bull in a china shop and,
>> if so, what happened.
>
>Why do you invent obvious nonsense? It does you no credit.

Done right, it's fun and profitable.

--

Father Brown's figure remained quite dark and still;
but in that instant he had lost his head. His head was
always most valuable when he had lost it.

On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 11:52:19 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Wed, 11 Aug 2021 05:02:22 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts <use...@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:
> >On 2021-08-10, John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:
> >> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 21:20:35 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts <use...@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:
> >>>On 2021-08-10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com <jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
> >>>> On Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:42:51 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>>>On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 9:22:27 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

<snip>

> >Why do you invent obvious nonsense? It does you no credit.
>
> Done right, it's fun and profitable.

How did you think that John Larkin had stayed in business all these years?

You do have to sell it, and his attempts to sell his nonsense here haven't been wildly successful, but if you pick your customers carefully it does seem to work quite well.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney