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tech / sci.electronics.design / Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologist Larry Brilliant

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* The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedFred Bloggs
+* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistjlarkin
|+- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
|`* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistJoe Gwinn
| +* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistJohn Larkin
| |+* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistJoe Gwinn
| ||`* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistJohn Larkin
| || +- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistJoe Gwinn
| || `- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
| |`- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedMartin Brown
| `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistSpehro Pefhany
|  +* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistJoe Gwinn
|  |`- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
|  `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistjlarkin
|   +- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
|   `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedwhit3rd
|    `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistjlarkin
|     +- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedwhit3rd
|     `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedJasen Betts
|      `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistJohn Larkin
|       +- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
|       +* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedJasen Betts
|       |`* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistjlarkin
|       | `- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
|       `- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedDon Y
`* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistJohn Larkin
 +* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedEd Lee
 |`- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistAnthony William Sloman
 +* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistFred Bloggs
 |+* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
 ||`* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedFred Bloggs
 || `- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
 |`* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistjlarkin
 | +- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistAnthony William Sloman
 | `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedwhit3rd
 |  `- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedwhit3rd
 +- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistJoe Gwinn
 +- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedwhit3rd
 +- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
 +* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedMartin Brown
 |`* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistjlarkin
 | +* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
 | |`* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedEd Lee
 | | +* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedDon Y
 | | |`* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedEd Lee
 | | | `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedDon Y
 | | |  `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedEd Lee
 | | |   `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedDon Y
 | | |    `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedEd Lee
 | | |     `- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedDon Y
 | | +- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedAnthony William Sloman
 | | `* Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedMartin Brown
 | |  `- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedEd Lee
 | `- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famedRick C
 `- Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologistRick C

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Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologist Larry Brilliant

<1e47e918-be8c-49ef-bde1-0b3f6f8114een@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed
epidemiologist Larry Brilliant
From: bill.slo...@ieee.org (Anthony William Sloman)
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 by: Anthony William Slom - Fri, 13 Aug 2021 01:58 UTC

On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 9:09:17 AM UTC+10, Ed Lee wrote:
> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:26:17 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> > On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> > > On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad..co.uk> wrote:
> > > >On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
> > > >> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred....@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > > >No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
> > > >who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
> > > >ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
> > > >have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
> > >
> > > The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
> > > it originated there.
>
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
> >
> > The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.

> If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated.

I did post a link to the Wikipedia article on the delta variant, which seems to me to identify it pretty specifically. Reference 33 is to "SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions". cdc.gov. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 15 June 2021. Retrieved 18 June 2021.

D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta.

If you say so. Since you seem to be a lot better at finding information than you are at comprehending it, I'm not going to take your opinion seriously.. D614G is listed as one of the defining mutations for the delta strain. E484Q isn't, but I've no idea whether it's presence disqualifies a strain from being included as a delta variant.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologist Larry Brilliant

<sf5obm$1p5k$1@gioia.aioe.org>

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From: '''newsp...@nonad.co.uk (Martin Brown)
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed
epidemiologist Larry Brilliant
Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2021 13:25:24 +0100
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 by: Martin Brown - Fri, 13 Aug 2021 12:25 UTC

On 13/08/2021 00:09, Ed Lee wrote:
> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:26:17 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
>> On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>> On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>>>> On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
>>>>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>> No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
>>>> who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
>>>> ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
>>>> have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
>>>
>>> The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
>>> it originated there.
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
>>
>> The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.
>
> If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated. D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta.

The sequence substitutions designated Delta aka B.1.617.2

https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.617.2.html

Lists the swaps and lineages for Delta as

Defining SNPs
S:T19R
S:L452R
S:T478K
S:P681R
S:D950N
ORF3a:S26L
M:I82T
ORF7a:V82A
ORF7a:T120I
N:D63G
N:R203M
N:D377Y

Arose in India and then radiated from there. USA got some cases detected
quite early on if their data are to be believed.
>
> USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> 2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
> 2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
> 2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
> 2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
> 2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
> 2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
> 2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
> 2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
> 2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8%
> _________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other
>
Looks to me from the above table like your local Delta has _417N & _484Q
in addition and it really took off from the start of this year.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologist Larry Brilliant

<db9f95df-2617-4edf-a6e6-f098601e5d3en@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed
epidemiologist Larry Brilliant
From: edward.m...@gmail.com (Ed Lee)
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 by: Ed Lee - Fri, 13 Aug 2021 14:54 UTC

On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 5:25:33 AM UTC-7, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 13/08/2021 00:09, Ed Lee wrote:
> > On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:26:17 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> >> On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> >>> On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad..co.uk> wrote:
> >>>> On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
> >>>>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred....@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>
> >>>> No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
> >>>> who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
> >>>> ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
> >>>> have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
> >>>
> >>> The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
> >>> it originated there.
> >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
> >>
> >> The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.
> >
> > If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated. D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta.
> The sequence substitutions designated Delta aka B.1.617.2
>
> https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.617.2.html
>
> Lists the swaps and lineages for Delta as
>
> Defining SNPs
> S:T19R
> S:L452R
> S:T478K
> S:P681R
> S:D950N
> ORF3a:S26L
> M:I82T
> ORF7a:V82A
> ORF7a:T120I
> N:D63G
> N:R203M
> N:D377Y
>
> Arose in India and then radiated from there. USA got some cases detected
> quite early on if their data are to be believed.
> >
> > USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> > 2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
> > 2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
> > 2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
> > 2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
> > 2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
> > 2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
> > 2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
> > 2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8%
> > _________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> > W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other
> >
> Looks to me from the above table like your local Delta has _417N & _484Q
> in addition and it really took off from the start of this year.

Our delta is 417N + 452R + 478K + 614T + 681R, without 484Q. 614T (not sure what the real letter should be) is also different from the WuHan virus and the D614G in early strain of 2020. Delta was as high as 66% in May, but dropping off since then.

Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologist Larry Brilliant

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Subject: Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologist Larry Brilliant
From: gnuarm.d...@gmail.com (Rick C)
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 by: Rick C - Fri, 13 Aug 2021 23:04 UTC

On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 3:20:57 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
> <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
> >
> >Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
> >
> >The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
> >
> >Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
> >
> >https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
> Yikes:
>
> https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
>
> "The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against
> infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant."
>
> As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that
> are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.
>
> Maybe the vaccines created delta.

Probably. We should have left well enough alone and let the virus rage. Then we would have seen no mutations at all. Delta would have never existed and I would never have had to read such an idiotic post.

I literally have no idea how anyone can have respect for someone who posts such idiotic drivel.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
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Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologist Larry Brilliant

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Subject: Re: The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed
epidemiologist Larry Brilliant
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 by: Rick C - Fri, 13 Aug 2021 23:15 UTC

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 10:51:45 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Nothing of consequence.

I had a realization while reading through these posts. In various conversations over the years with people who believe God created man they often argue against evolution using the watch analogy. It is very unlikely indeed to improve the functionality of a watch by poking at it with a screwdriver.

However, the human body is not a precision watch with every part doing a specific job in an optimum fashion. The human body is more like a machine created by a bunch of workers who know nothing about mechanics, only able to turn a screw and tighten a bolt. They pick parts from a random assortment of cogs, levers, pulleys and fasteners trying to build the same machine they built previously. They sometimes make mistakes and the best units are sent back to have copies made. In that case there is much room for improvement even in the best working units produced. So random changes by an idiot can indeed improve the species. Look at the proof, even Larkin has produced viable children.

--

Rick C.

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