On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>
>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>
>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>
>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>
>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html

Yikes:

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html

"The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against
infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant."

As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that
are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.

Maybe the vaccines created delta.

On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 12:20:57 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
> <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
> >
> >Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
> >
> >The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
> >
> >Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
> >
> >https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
> Yikes:
>
> https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
>
> "The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against
> infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant."

Moderna is 3x stronger dose. So, it works better with just one-shot.

> As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that
> are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.

You get the same immunity eventually, with or without vaccine, when you encounter the real virus. However, having the vaccine first suffers less health damages.

> Maybe the vaccines created delta.

Not just delta, since we don't really have much of it in the USA, mutations have better chances of evading the vaccine. But vaccine definitely did not create delta or variants. Currently, the strongest variant is E484Q + D614G (56%). So called Delta (D=452R+478K+681R) is around 15%.

USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8%
_________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other

On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 3:20:57 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
> <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
> >
> >Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
> >
> >The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
> >
> >Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
> >
> >https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
> Yikes:
>
> https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
>
> "The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against
> infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant."
>
> As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that
> are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.
>
> Maybe the vaccines created delta.

There's really no such thing as a highly targeted vaccine because the protein complexes the antibodies are looking for are so broad in scope.
Then you need to watch the research endpoints, some are no infection at all, or infected but very mild case, or infected but didn't require hospitalization. In this case it sounds like they're using no infection at all.
The Pfizer people are actually better off since they were allowed exposure to a very mild infection for which they will easily develop an antibody defense. They're now immune to Delta. The Moderna vaccinees were deprived of that exposure and are therefore probably more susceptible to yet another mutated Delta. There are bunches of Delta's, it's a whole family, not just a single virus.

On Wed, 11 Aug 2021 12:20:45 -0700, John Larkin
<jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

>On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>
>>Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>
>>The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>
>>Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>
>>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>
>Yikes:
>
>https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
>
>"The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against
>infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant."
>
>As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that
>are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.

"Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune
protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection", Nature Medicine
volume 27, pages 1205–1211 (2021).

..<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8>

Decoder: mRNA-1273 (Moderna, mRNA in liposome), NVX-CiV2373 (Novavax,
DNA in virus shell), BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech, mRNA in liposome),
RAD26+RAd5s (Russian, DNA in virus shell), nCoV-19 (Astra
Zeneca/Oxford, DNA in virus shell), Ad26.COV2.s (J&J/Janssen, DNA in
virus shell), and CoronaVac (Chinese Sinovac, killed COVID19).

>Maybe the vaccines created delta.

Not really, in the sense that *any* increase in herd immunity
increases selective pressure, which yields variants, from vaccine or
from infection and recovery.

Joe Gwinn

On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 12:20:57 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
> <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.

> https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
>
> "The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against
> infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant."
>
> As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that
> are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.

That's not clear from any data on 'a real infection'.
The phrase 'against infection' masks the fact that the vaccine is nearly totally
effective against hospitalization (or worse) due to infection. It saves your life, but you still cough.

> Maybe the vaccines created delta.

That's a complete nonsequitur. Vaccine immunity works in the bloodstream, and the communicable
virus is in the respiratory tissues, so isn't quick to respond. Delta gained in scope by its
own highly-transmissible nature, not in any way assisted by immunity nor by a vaccine.

Maybe mask requirement lapses created delta.

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 5:20:57 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
> <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
> >
> >Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
> >
> >The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
> >
> >Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
> >
> >https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
> Yikes:
>
> https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
>
> "The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant."
>
> As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.

This is nonsense. The vaccines in use in the USA use the highly conserved Covid-19 spike protein as the antigen to provoke the immune system. A real infection offers a wider range of possible antigens, and - as Martin Brown has pointed out - the antibodies produced in reaction to a real infection tend to target bigger chunks of the viral casing (which are going to change more from strain to strain).
> Maybe the vaccines created delta.

The delta strain seems to have originated in India, where very few people have been vaccinated (and even fewer when it first appeared).

John Larkin posts a lot of nonsense, but this is even more nonsensical than usual.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 6:27:56 AM UTC+10, Ed Lee wrote:
> On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 12:20:57 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
> > On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

<snip>

> > As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that
> > are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.

It doesn't.

> You get the same immunity eventually, with or without vaccine, when you encounter the real virus. However, having the vaccine first suffers less health damages.

You don't. As Martin Brown has pointed out, the antibodies generated by your immune system in reaction to a real virus tend to target bigger chunks of viral casing than the antibodies produced by the vaccines used in the west, which all generate a version of the highly conserved Covid-19 spike protein.

Those antibodies are likely to be effective against a wider range of strains of the Covid-19 virus than those produced in reaction to a natural infection.

<snip>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 7:40:09 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 3:20:57 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
> > On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

<snip>

> There's really no such thing as a highly targeted vaccine because the protein complexes the antibodies are looking for are so broad in scope.

All the vaccines that are used in the west provoke the immune system with just the highly conserved spike protein. The antibodies may be looking for a wide range of protein complexes, but ones that find the spike protein are the only ones that get produced in volume after vaccination.

> Then you need to watch the research endpoints, some are no infection at all, or infected but very mild case, or infected but didn't require hospitalization. In this case it sounds like they're using no infection at all.

I wonder what Fred was thinking when he wrote that.

> The Pfizer people are actually better off since they were allowed exposure to a very mild infection for which they will easily develop an antibody defense. They're now immune to Delta. The Moderna vaccinees were deprived of that exposure and are therefore probably more susceptible to yet another mutated Delta. There are bunches of Delta's, it's a whole family, not just a single virus.

Perhaps. But the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both use mRNA to generate the spike protein in your tissue after you've been vaccinated. Whatever Moderna might have done that was different to Pfizer isn't going to change the nature of the antibody defence generated.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
> <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>
>> Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>
>> The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>
>> Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>
>> https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>
> Yikes:
>
> https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
>
> "The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against
> infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant."

That is similar to the sort of poor Delta numbers now seen in Israel
also uniquely Pfizer vaccinated in the entire population. Conjecture is
that the vaccine efficacy there is waning in those vaccinated early on.

Hence the campaign for an Autumnal booster for those most vulnerable.

This article discusses some of the empirical evidence in the UK as to
just how easily vaccine breakthrough is occurring with Delta.

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1960
>
> As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that
> are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.
>
> Maybe the vaccines created delta.

No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.

Couple that with international travel to and from the UK which spread it
to us because The Boris wanted his photo op jolly to Delhi and you have
a recipe for disaster. UK might just have got away with it now due to a
combination of summer weather, 90% first jab and 76% second jab (and a
mixture of AZ, Pfizer and Moderna deployed) across the population.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 12:13:02 AM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 7:40:09 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 3:20:57 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
> > > On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
> <snip>
> > There's really no such thing as a highly targeted vaccine because the protein complexes the antibodies are looking for are so broad in scope.
> All the vaccines that are used in the west provoke the immune system with just the highly conserved spike protein. The antibodies may be looking for a wide range of protein complexes, but ones that find the spike protein are the only ones that get produced in volume after vaccination.

As usual you miss the point entirely. The vaccine may have trained the immune system to produce antibodies to neutralize the original virus by attaching to the RBD, but the variant RBD is similar enough to the original that those antibodies attach to it, albeit with somewhat reduced effectiveness. Get it now?

> > Then you need to watch the research endpoints, some are no infection at all, or infected but very mild case, or infected but didn't require hospitalization. In this case it sounds like they're using no infection at all.
> I wonder what Fred was thinking when he wrote that.

Fred must have been thinking about what's going. The traditional measure of effectiveness which is percent infection rate of vaccinated to unvaccinated, was turning out numbers that were too low and possibly alarming the public. So although researchers would still gather that statistic, they found the results were more palatable if they started looking at ratio of severe illness and/or death in vaccinated versus unvaccinated. That way you can end up with traditional effectiveness as low as 30% still yielding very good 85-90% effectiveness in preventing severe illness, which the public wants to hear.

> > The Pfizer people are actually better off since they were allowed exposure to a very mild infection for which they will easily develop an antibody defense. They're now immune to Delta. The Moderna vaccinees were deprived of that exposure and are therefore probably more susceptible to yet another mutated Delta. There are bunches of Delta's, it's a whole family, not just a single virus.
> Perhaps. But the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both use mRNA to generate the spike protein in your tissue after you've been vaccinated. Whatever Moderna might have done that was different to Pfizer isn't going to change the nature of the antibody defence generated.

You seem to think the immunity is locked into using the vaccine antibody when challenged by a variant virus. That's kind of a wacky idea. The immune system will capture the Delta variant and start manufacturing a Delta specific antibody response. The vaccine helps with its legacy antibodies by eliminating enough of the Delta viral load to prevent the body from becoming overwhelmed by infection before it can mount a specific response of enough intensity.
This could be called vaccination via microdosing, a concept and phenomenon that has been observed and studied for nearly three decades that I'm aware of. You wouldn't know anything about that because you're not quite the subject matter expert you claim to be.

Apparently it does. The main difference between Pfizer and Moderna is the mRNA, with Moderna producing a much more stable and robust RNA that doesn't disintegrate at higher temperatures. How that translates into difference in spike protein and RBD region has not been elucidated.

>
> --
> Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 9:57:44 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 12:13:02 AM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> > On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 7:40:09 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > > On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 3:20:57 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
> > > > On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred....@gmail.com> wrote:
> > <snip>
> > > There's really no such thing as a highly targeted vaccine because the protein complexes the antibodies are looking for are so broad in scope.
> >
> > All the vaccines that are used in the west provoke the immune system with just the highly conserved spike protein. The antibodies may be looking for a wide range of protein complexes, but ones that find the spike protein are the only ones that get produced in volume after vaccination.
>
> As usual you miss the point entirely. The vaccine may have trained the immune system to produce antibodies to neutralize the original virus by attaching to the RBD, but the variant RBD is similar enough to the original that those antibodies attach to it, albeit with somewhat reduced effectiveness. Get it now?

I get - once again - that you don't know what you are talking about. Why should you think that the antibodies will attach to the receptor binding domain?

The variant receptor binding domains are going to very similar to the original because the human ACE-2 receptor isn't going to change, and if the spike protein doesn't latch onto that virus won't be able to infect human cells.. The rest of the spike protein is less constrained (if not all that much less constrained).

Nothing in the vaccines in use restricts the antibodies from latch onto larger areas of the spike protein than just the receptor bonding domain.

> > > Then you need to watch the research endpoints, some are no infection at all, or infected but very mild case, or infected but didn't require hospitalization. In this case it sounds like they're using no infection at all.

And what is that going to tell you?

> > I wonder what Fred was thinking when he wrote that.
>
> Fred must have been thinking about what's going. The traditional measure of effectiveness which is percent infection rate of vaccinated to unvaccinated, was turning out numbers that were too low and possibly alarming the public. So although researchers would still gather that statistic, they found the results were more palatable if they started looking at ratio of severe illness and/or death in vaccinated versus unvaccinated. That way you can end up with traditional effectiveness as low as 30% still yielding very good 85-90% effectiveness in preventing severe illness, which the public wants to hear.

As has been pointed out, the antibodies are circulating in the blood and, and the virus infects the surface of the air ways (which aren't all that vascular). No vaccine is going to prevent the initial infection of the airways, but if the immune system is primed to react the presence of the Covid-19 virus it will flood the system with antibodies raterh rapidly and stop the virus getting any deeper into the system.

> > > The Pfizer people are actually better off since they were allowed exposure to a very mild infection for which they will easily develop an antibody defense. They're now immune to Delta. The Moderna vaccinees were deprived of that exposure and are therefore probably more susceptible to yet another mutated Delta. There are bunches of Delta's, it's a whole family, not just a single virus.
> >
> > Perhaps. But the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both use mRNA to generate the spike protein in your tissue after you've been vaccinated. Whatever Moderna might have done that was different to Pfizer isn't going to change the nature of the antibody defence generated.
>
> You seem to think the immunity is locked into using the vaccine antibody when challenged by a variant virus. That's kind of a wacky idea.

The immune system isn't locked into anything by the vaccine. If it can rapidly produce antibodies which kill off the virus, it won't get to enough other viral bits to get prompted to generate any new antibodies to them, but it's a whacky idea to think that this is going to happen often.

> The immune system will capture the Delta variant and start manufacturing a Delta specific antibody response.

Of a sort. The immune system seems to like producing antibodies to bigger chunks of the shell of the virus than just individual spike proteins, and they are likely to be rather more specific to that strain than just an antibody which latches onto the highly conserved spike protein.

> The vaccine helps with its legacy antibodies by eliminating enough of the Delta viral load to prevent the body from becoming overwhelmed by infection before it can mount a specific response of enough intensity.

In other words it might happen but not to any large extent.

> This could be called vaccination via microdosing, a concept and phenomenon that has been observed and studied for nearly three decades that I'm aware of. You wouldn't know anything about that because you're not quite the subject matter expert you claim to be.

I don't claim to be any kind of subject expert - I merely claim to know to notice when you are blowing smoke, which happens rather too often. See above for your gratuitous nonsense about the receptor binding domain, which is there to let you sound technical without saying anything that makes any sense at all.
> Apparently it does. The main difference between Pfizer and Moderna is the mRNA, with Moderna producing a much more stable and robust RNA that doesn't disintegrate at higher temperatures. How that translates into difference in spike protein and RBD region has not been elucidated.

But the mRNA is just there to get your cells to churn out exactly the same version of the spike protein as the Pfizer mRNA does.

What it presents to the immune system is going to be exactly the same. The immune system isn't going to react to the mRNA - if it did it wouldn't last long enough to let your cells churn out the spike protein that serves as the antigen.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Wed, 11 Aug 2021 14:40:05 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 3:20:57 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
>> <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> >The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>> >
>> >Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>> >
>> >The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>> >
>> >Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>> >
>> >https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>> Yikes:
>>
>> https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
>>
>> "The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against
>> infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant."
>>
>> As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that
>> are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.
>>
>> Maybe the vaccines created delta.
>
>There's really no such thing as a highly targeted vaccine because the protein complexes the antibodies are looking for are so broad in scope.
>Then you need to watch the research endpoints, some are no infection at all, or infected but very mild case, or infected but didn't require hospitalization. In this case it sounds like they're using no infection at all.
>The Pfizer people are actually better off since they were allowed exposure to a very mild infection for which they will easily develop an antibody defense. They're now immune to Delta. The Moderna vaccinees were deprived of that exposure and are therefore probably more susceptible to yet another mutated Delta. There are bunches of Delta's, it's a whole family, not just a single virus.

42% effective is "better off" than 76?

Those "very mild infections" are still contageous and still have side
effects.

But yes, a real infection is more protective than a vaccine,

https://amgreatness.com/2021/08/05/johns-hopkins-professor-says-covid-infection-provides-more-immunity-than-vaccines/

if you survive it without serious harm.

One theory is that the first-wave covid was so nasty because it didn't
evolve incrementally within our population like viruses usually do. It
was engineered, a chimera, the equivalent of thousands of evolutionary
steps hitting us by surprise. It is now returning to the usual,
incremental, mainstream evolutionary path of "normal" human viruses,
which is less deadly and easier to defend against.

--

Father Brown's figure remained quite dark and still;
but in that instant he had lost his head. His head was
always most valuable when he had lost it.

On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

>On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
>> <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world’s population has been vaccinated, said Larry Brilliant, a well-known epidemiologist.
>>>
>>> Brilliant, who was part of the WHO team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.
>>>
>>> The doctor said vaccinated people aged 65 and have a weakened immune system should get a booster shot “right away.”
>>>
>>> Weak immunity produces virulent variants, not strong immunity.
>>>
>>> https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/covid-epidemiologist-larry-brilliant-on-delta-variant-vaccinations.html
>>
>> Yikes:
>>
>> https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
>>
>> "The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against
>> infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant."
>
>That is similar to the sort of poor Delta numbers now seen in Israel
>also uniquely Pfizer vaccinated in the entire population. Conjecture is
>that the vaccine efficacy there is waning in those vaccinated early on.
>
>Hence the campaign for an Autumnal booster for those most vulnerable.
>
>This article discusses some of the empirical evidence in the UK as to
>just how easily vaccine breakthrough is occurring with Delta.
>
>https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1960
>>
>> As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that
>> are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.
>>
>> Maybe the vaccines created delta.
>
>No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
>who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
>ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
>have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.

The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
it originated there.

Vaccinating a population against virus A means that A dies out but
mutation A' is differentially selected. A vaccine that focuses on a
single viral feature is certainly easier for a mutation to evade,
compared to a broader vaccine or a real infection.

>
>Couple that with international travel to and from the UK which spread it
>to us because The Boris wanted his photo op jolly to Delhi and you have
>a recipe for disaster. UK might just have got away with it now due to a
>combination of summer weather, 90% first jab and 76% second jab (and a
>mixture of AZ, Pfizer and Moderna deployed) across the population.

A mutation anywhere in the world will soon spread. It will explode
when it reaches a high-density, unvaccinated population like India.
Even a 42% effective vaccine is better than none.

The doubling rate of delta is crazy, a few days. One seed will sweep a
country fast. And, apparently, burn out fast. India daily cases are
now below 10% of their May 8 peak. So are daily deaths.

--

Father Brown's figure remained quite dark and still;
but in that instant he had lost his head. His head was
always most valuable when he had lost it.

On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:33:15 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Wed, 11 Aug 2021 14:40:05 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 3:20:57 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
> >> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

<snip>
> >> As one expert noted, a narrow-target vaccine selects for viruses that are immune to the vaccine. A real infection confers better immunity.

There are all sorts of experts. Fred Bloggs think he is one.
> >>
> >> Maybe the vaccines created delta.
> >
> >There's really no such thing as a highly targeted vaccine because the protein complexes the antibodies are looking for are so broad in scope.

That's why the Pfizer. Moderna and Astra-Zeneca vaccines confront the immune system with just the highly conserved spike protein. You get antibodies that only target that, rather than a biggere chunk of the viral shell, which is more likely to change to variant to variant.

<snipped ther est of Fred's nonsense>
>
> Those "very mild infections" are still contagious and still have side effects.

They don't last a long and you don't shed as many virus particles in total.
> But yes, a real infection is more protective than a vaccine,
>
> https://amgreatness.com/2021/08/05/johns-hopkins-professor-says-covid-infection-provides-more-immunity-than-vaccines/

You'd expect to see that sort of clown on Fox News.
> if you survive it without serious harm.

Which isn't exactly guaranteed.
> One theory is that the first-wave covid was so nasty because it didn't
> evolve incrementally within our population like viruses usually do. It
> was engineered, a chimera, the equivalent of thousands of evolutionary
> steps hitting us by surprise.

There's absolutely no evidence that suggests that it was "engineered". It may well have had lots of evolutionary steps that got it better adapted to humans, but we haven't seen any historical virus samples that give us any waypoints. There was a corona virus detected in pangolins that had a lot of the same changes, but it didn't seen to be an ancestor of Covid-19.

> It is now returning to the usual, incremental, mainstream evolutionary path of "normal" human viruses, which is less deadly and easier to defend against.

"Less deadly" doesn't seem to be happening. There's no selective pressure for that. More infectious is exactly the way you'd expect to see a virus evolve.

The Australian state of New South Wales isn't finding the delta variant easier to defend against than its predecessors. The current outbreak is still growing. It is coming under control in some suburbs of Sydney (including the one in which I live) but less well off suburbs aren't doing as well, and are being subject to ever tighter lock-downs.

The state government is now pushing for as many people to get vaccinated as possible, with a lot pf pressure on groups who have been shown to be more likely to spread the virus, but that's an uncomfortably long-term solution.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co..uk> wrote:
> >On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
> >> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

> >No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
> >who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
> >ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
> >have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
>
> The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
> it originated there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant

The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.

> Vaccinating a population against virus A means that A dies out but mutation A' is differentially selected. A vaccine that focuses on a single viral feature is certainly easier for a mutation to evade, compared to a broader vaccine or a real infection.

Unless that feature is highly conserved, and the Covid-19 spike protein is.

> The doubling rate of delta is crazy, a few days. One seed will sweep a country fast.

If the country is silly enough to let it. In Australia the delta outbreak in NSW is still growing - the 7 day moving average is at 327 new cases today, up from 163 cases on the 27th July - a doubling time of a fortnight. Other states have outbreaks, but they aren't as big and do seem to be coming under control.

> And, apparently, burn out fast. India daily cases are now below 10% of their May 8 peak. So are daily deaths.

Nothing to do with the virus, and everything to do with enough people getting sick and dying to frighten the rest into locking down hard.

The problem in NSW is that the delta virus is infectious enough that a few irresponsible idiots can infect a lot of people before they get sick enough for anybody to notice, and the anxiety level isn't yet high enough to frighten enough of the irresponsible idiots.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 7:33:15 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

> But yes, a real infection is more protective than a vaccine,
>
> https://amgreatness.com/2021/08/05/johns-hopkins-professor-says-covid-infection-provides-more-immunity-than-vaccines/
>
> if you survive it without serious harm.

That's not clear. What the professor said, was that a larger variant portfolio of antibodies is
created; some of that might be wasted, and it all is chosen by random encounters, where
the vaccines have selective sensitivity to an important, NOT dispensable, part of the
vaccine coat.

More antibodies poses be a danger in and of itself, since those antibodies can trigger
some auto-immune disorders. The data does NOT clearly support the 'more protective'
conclusion. We've seen breakthrough multiple infections as well as 'long covid'
episodes that responded positively to vaccination (but showed no sign of remission
naturally).

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 2:30:47 PM UTC-7, whit3rd wrote:

> That's not clear. What the professor said, was that a larger variant portfolio of antibodies is
> created; some of that might be wasted, and it all is chosen by random encounters, where
> the vaccines have selective sensitivity to an important, NOT dispensable, part of the
> vaccine coat.

Correction: that's 'viral coat'. Silly fingers....

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:26:17 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> > On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
> > >On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
> > >> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > >No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
> > >who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
> > >ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
> > >have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
> >
> > The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
> > it originated there.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
>
> The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.

If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated. D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta.
USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8%
_________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other

On 8/12/2021 4:09 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:26:17 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
>> On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>> On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>>>> On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
>>>>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>> No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
>>>> who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
>>>> ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
>>>> have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
>>>
>>> The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
>>> it originated there.
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
>>
>> The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.
>
> If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated. D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta.
>
> USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> 2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> 2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
> 2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
> 2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
> 2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
> 2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
> 2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
> 2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
> 2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
> 2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8%
> _________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other

Your dataset doesn't (apparently) allow for uniquely identifying
particular named variants as it appears to only enumerate specific mutations.

Delta (B.1.617.2) has several mutations, including D614G, T478K, L452R and
P681R.

Why don't you play with your data until you get results that agree with the
data published by the CDC. Otherwise, it's just poorly formatted text with
little/no real pertinent information content.

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 4:38:55 PM UTC-7, Don Y wrote:
> On 8/12/2021 4:09 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
> > On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:26:17 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> >> On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> >>> On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad..co.uk> wrote:
> >>>> On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
> >>>>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred....@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>
> >>>> No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
> >>>> who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
> >>>> ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
> >>>> have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
> >>>
> >>> The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
> >>> it originated there.
> >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
> >>
> >> The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.
> >
> > If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated. D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta.
> >
> > USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> > 2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
> > 2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
> > 2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
> > 2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
> > 2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
> > 2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
> > 2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
> > 2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
> > 2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8%
> > _________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> > W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other
> Your dataset doesn't (apparently) allow for uniquely identifying
> particular named variants as it appears to only enumerate specific mutations.
>
> Delta (B.1.617.2) has several mutations, including D614G, T478K, L452R and
> P681R.

which is exactly 0%.

> Why don't you play with your data until you get results that agree with the
> data published by the CDC. Otherwise, it's just poorly formatted text with
> little/no real pertinent information content.

if only i can figure out how they come up with their number.

On 8/12/2021 4:44 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 4:38:55 PM UTC-7, Don Y wrote:
>> On 8/12/2021 4:09 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
>>> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:26:17 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
>>>> On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>>>> On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>>>>>> On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
>>>>>>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>> No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
>>>>>> who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
>>>>>> ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
>>>>>> have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
>>>>>
>>>>> The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
>>>>> it originated there.
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
>>>>
>>>> The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.
>>>
>>> If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated. D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta.
>>>
>>> USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
>>> 2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>> 2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>> 2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>> 2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>> 2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>> 2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>> 2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
>>> 2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
>>> 2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
>>> 2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
>>> 2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
>>> 2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
>>> 2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
>>> 2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
>>> 2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8%
>>> _________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
>>> W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other
>> Your dataset doesn't (apparently) allow for uniquely identifying
>> particular named variants as it appears to only enumerate specific mutations.
>>
>> Delta (B.1.617.2) has several mutations, including D614G, T478K, L452R and
>> P681R.
>
> which is exactly 0%.
>
>> Why don't you play with your data until you get results that agree with the
>> data published by the CDC. Otherwise, it's just poorly formatted text with
>> little/no real pertinent information content.
>
> if only i can figure out how they come up with their number.

So, you expect *us* to decide what value your data have?

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 4:51:40 PM UTC-7, Don Y wrote:
> On 8/12/2021 4:44 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
> > On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 4:38:55 PM UTC-7, Don Y wrote:
> >> On 8/12/2021 4:09 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
> >>> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:26:17 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> >>>> On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> >>>>> On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
> >>>>>> On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
> >>>>>>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred....@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>>> No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
> >>>>>> who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
> >>>>>> ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
> >>>>>> have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
> >>>>> it originated there.
> >>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
> >>>>
> >>>> The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.
> >>>
> >>> If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated. D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta.
> >>>
> >>> USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> >>> 2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>> 2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>> 2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>> 2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>> 2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>> 2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>> 2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
> >>> 2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
> >>> 2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
> >>> 2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
> >>> 2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
> >>> 2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
> >>> 2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
> >>> 2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
> >>> 2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8%
> >>> _________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> >>> W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other
> >> Your dataset doesn't (apparently) allow for uniquely identifying
> >> particular named variants as it appears to only enumerate specific mutations.
> >>
> >> Delta (B.1.617.2) has several mutations, including D614G, T478K, L452R and
> >> P681R.
> >
> > which is exactly 0%.
> >
> >> Why don't you play with your data until you get results that agree with the
> >> data published by the CDC. Otherwise, it's just poorly formatted text with
> >> little/no real pertinent information content.
> >
> > if only i can figure out how they come up with their number.
> So, you expect *us* to decide what value your data have?

I am hoping someone can check and validate my data.

Even if we accept a different mutated D614H (not the D614G we have in the US), Delta is only 15%.

The majority is still (D614G and something) in the USA, which are domestic, not imported.

D614G: C->G at center of 614
D614H: C->T at center of 614

On 8/12/2021 5:01 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 4:51:40 PM UTC-7, Don Y wrote:
>> On 8/12/2021 4:44 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
>>> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 4:38:55 PM UTC-7, Don Y wrote:
>>>> On 8/12/2021 4:09 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
>>>>> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:26:17 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
>>>>>> On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>>>>>> On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
>>>>>>>> who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
>>>>>>>> ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
>>>>>>>> have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
>>>>>>> it originated there.
>>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.
>>>>>
>>>>> If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated. D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta.
>>>>>
>>>>> USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
>>>>> 2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>>>> 2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>>>> 2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>>>> 2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>>>> 2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>>>> 2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
>>>>> 2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
>>>>> 2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
>>>>> 2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
>>>>> 2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
>>>>> 2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
>>>>> 2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
>>>>> 2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
>>>>> 2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
>>>>> 2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8%
>>>>> _________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
>>>>> W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other
>>>> Your dataset doesn't (apparently) allow for uniquely identifying
>>>> particular named variants as it appears to only enumerate specific mutations.
>>>>
>>>> Delta (B.1.617.2) has several mutations, including D614G, T478K, L452R and
>>>> P681R.
>>>
>>> which is exactly 0%.
>>>
>>>> Why don't you play with your data until you get results that agree with the
>>>> data published by the CDC. Otherwise, it's just poorly formatted text with
>>>> little/no real pertinent information content.
>>>
>>> if only i can figure out how they come up with their number.
>> So, you expect *us* to decide what value your data have?
>
> I am hoping someone can check and validate my data.

You have the "answers" available -- albeint potentially skewed in reporting
time. Massage your interpretation of YOUR data until it roughly agrees
with those "answers".

Or, declare that those "answers" are bullshit -- and explain why your
data should be authoritative.

> Even if we accept a different mutated D614H (not the D614G we have in the US), Delta is only 15%.
>
> The majority is still (D614G and something) in the USA, which are domestic, not imported.
>
> D614G: C->G at center of 614
> D614H: C->T at center of 614
>

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 5:10:04 PM UTC-7, Don Y wrote:
> On 8/12/2021 5:01 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
> > On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 4:51:40 PM UTC-7, Don Y wrote:
> >> On 8/12/2021 4:44 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
> >>> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 4:38:55 PM UTC-7, Don Y wrote:
> >>>> On 8/12/2021 4:09 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
> >>>>> On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 8:26:17 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> >>>>>> On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 12:51:45 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> >>>>>>> On Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:44:47 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
> >>>>>>>> On 11/08/2021 20:20, John Larkin wrote:
> >>>>>>>>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2021 06:44:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people
> >>>>>>>> who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the
> >>>>>>>> ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who
> >>>>>>>> have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean
> >>>>>>> it originated there.
> >>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated. D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> >>>>> 2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>>>> 2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>>>> 2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>>>> 2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>>>> 2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>>>> 2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
> >>>>> 2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
> >>>>> 2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
> >>>>> 2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
> >>>>> 2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
> >>>>> 2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
> >>>>> 2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
> >>>>> 2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
> >>>>> 2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
> >>>>> 2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8%
> >>>>> _________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
> >>>>> W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other
> >>>> Your dataset doesn't (apparently) allow for uniquely identifying
> >>>> particular named variants as it appears to only enumerate specific mutations.
> >>>>
> >>>> Delta (B.1.617.2) has several mutations, including D614G, T478K, L452R and
> >>>> P681R.
> >>>
> >>> which is exactly 0%.
> >>>
> >>>> Why don't you play with your data until you get results that agree with the
> >>>> data published by the CDC. Otherwise, it's just poorly formatted text with
> >>>> little/no real pertinent information content.
> >>>
> >>> if only i can figure out how they come up with their number.
> >> So, you expect *us* to decide what value your data have?
> >
> > I am hoping someone can check and validate my data.
> You have the "answers" available -- albeint potentially skewed in reporting
> time. Massage your interpretation of YOUR data until it roughly agrees
> with those "answers".
>
> Or, declare that those "answers" are bullshit -- and explain why your
> data should be authoritative.

Well, then i have to declare CDC claim as misleading, or NIH/National Center for Biological Information as bullshit.

The NCBI data set is available for anyone to download and check.

80+ % of the genomes sequences match the samples of early 2020, not the imported sequences.

> > Even if we accept a different mutated D614T (not the D614G we have in the US), Delta is only 15%.
> >
> > The majority is still (D614G and something) in the USA, which are domestic, not imported.
> >
> > D614G: C->G at center of 614
> > D614T: C->T at center of 614
> >

On 8/12/2021 5:20 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
>> Or, declare that those "answers" are bullshit -- and explain why your
>> data should be authoritative.
>
> Well, then i have to declare CDC claim as misleading, or NIH/National Center for Biological Information as bullshit.

Contact the national media outlets with your claims. I'm sure folks will
be excited to hear that they have been misled so biggly.

Of course, be prepared to *defend* your claim!

> The NCBI data set is available for anyone to download and check.
>
> 80+ % of the genomes sequences match the samples of early 2020, not the imported sequences.