You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home watching the race today? 135,000 rabid American race fans are there in person. That’s us, land of the free and home of the brave.

On 2021-05-30 10:10 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home watching the race today? 135,000 rabid American race fans are there in person. That’s us, land of the free and home of the brave.
>

And the many thousands more dead.

How many do you think might catch COVID-19 at Indy, Tom.

How many is too many to you?

On 2021-05-30 10:10 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home watching the race today? 135,000 rabid American race fans are there in person. That’s us, land of the free and home of the brave.
>

Fun, huh?

<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/indiana/>

Indiana (2019 population approx. 6.732 million)

Coronavirus Cases: 743,338 (110,000 cases per million)

Deaths: 13,615 (2,022 deaths per million)

On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 1:38:11 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> On 2021-05-30 10:10 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home watching the race today? 135,000 rabid American race fans are there in person. That’s us, land of the free and home of the brave.
> >
> And the many thousands more dead.
>
> How many do you think might catch COVID-19 at Indy, Tom.
>
> How many is too many to you?

They are adults. We have been living with this pandemic for well over a year. They know the risk. Who are you to judge? You got it. I’m not judging you.

On 2021-05-30 11:45 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 1:38:11 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>> On 2021-05-30 10:10 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>> You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home watching the race today? 135,000 rabid American race fans are there in person. That’s us, land of the free and home of the brave.
>>>
>> And the many thousands more dead.
>>
>> How many do you think might catch COVID-19 at Indy, Tom.
>>
>> How many is too many to you?
>
> They are adults. We have been living with this pandemic for well over a year. They know the risk. Who are you to judge? You got it. I’m not judging you.
>

Really?

"crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home" wasn't a judgement?

On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 3:16:33 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> On 2021-05-30 11:45 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 1:38:11 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> >> On 2021-05-30 10:10 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> >>> You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home watching the race today? 135,000 rabid American race fans are there in person. That’s us, land of the free and home of the brave.
> >>>
> >> And the many thousands more dead.
> >>
> >> How many do you think might catch COVID-19 at Indy, Tom.
> >>
> >> How many is too many to you?
> >
> > They are adults. We have been living with this pandemic for well over a year. They know the risk. Who are you to judge? You got it. I’m not judging you.
> >
> Really?
>
> "crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home" wasn't a judgement?

No, that's a fact.

Meanwhile, BC is still locked down under the draconian May 28 restrictions that resemble what you would read about for a prison. I defy anyone to read and understand all of it. I note that those restrictions did not keep Alan Baker totally safe.

Across the border, the land of the (relatively) free, COVID signage is quickly disappearing, and life is getting back to normal. 135,000 screaming fans cheered on Helio in a thrilling race finish. Summer concerts at numerous local sites are back. We have tickets to 9 of those at Symphony on the Prairie. July 4 fireworks are back. The private high school nearby already has outdoor seating set up for this weekend's graduation. They hosted an open house for prospective students and parents this past week. I was just over to Home Depot and all COVID signage is gone. Office workers are returning to their places of employment. We are canceling supplementary unemployment insurance and reinstating requirements for search for work documentation in some states with labor shortages. A group from our church has plans to go to Greece this summer. That's just a few examples.

AND, Indiana and U.S. COVID cases and deaths are on the decline, and have been for some time. Yes, we paid a price, but we also benefited, from looser restrictions. Even when the Democrats took the presidency and effective control of Congress the restrictions trajectory did not change. There was not even much of a debate in most states. We as a country highly value freedom, even at a cost. Bash us if you like, but that's the way it is.

On 2021-06-04 2:04 p.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 3:16:33 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>> On 2021-05-30 11:45 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>> On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 1:38:11 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>>>> On 2021-05-30 10:10 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>>>> You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home watching
>>>>> the race today? 135,000 rabid American race fans are there in
>>>>> person. That’s us, land of the free and home of the brave.
>>>>>
>>>> And the many thousands more dead.
>>>>
>>>> How many do you think might catch COVID-19 at Indy, Tom.
>>>>
>>>> How many is too many to you?
>>>
>>> They are adults. We have been living with this pandemic for well
>>> over a year. They know the risk. Who are you to judge? You got
>>> it. I’m not judging you.
>>>
>> Really?
>>
>> "crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home" wasn't a judgement?
>
> No, that's a fact.

"crybaby" is a fact?

>
> Meanwhile, BC is still locked down under the draconian May 28
> restrictions that resemble what you would read about for a prison. I
> defy anyone to read and understand all of it. I note that those
> restrictions did not keep Alan Baker totally safe.

Under the extraordinary circumstance of allowing my terminally ill
brother to have visitors from a province that didn't lock down and hence
passed on COVID to two of us.

>
> Across the border, the land of the (relatively) free, COVID signage
> is quickly disappearing, and life is getting back to normal. 135,000
> screaming fans cheered on Helio in a thrilling race finish. Summer
> concerts at numerous local sites are back. We have tickets to 9 of
> those at Symphony on the Prairie. July 4 fireworks are back. The
> private high school nearby already has outdoor seating set up for
> this weekend's graduation. They hosted an open house for prospective
> students and parents this past week. I was just over to Home Depot
> and all COVID signage is gone. Office workers are returning to their
> places of employment. We are canceling supplementary unemployment
> insurance and reinstating requirements for search for work
> documentation in some states with labor shortages. A group from our
> church has plans to go to Greece this summer. That's just a few
> examples.

Great. Hope you don't get it and die.

I hope those 135,000 screaming fans were all vaccinated.

>
> AND, Indiana and U.S. COVID cases and deaths are on the decline, and
> have been for some time. Yes, we paid a price, but we also benefited,
> from looser restrictions. Even when the Democrats took the presidency
> and effective control of Congress the restrictions trajectory did not
> change. There was not even much of a debate in most states. We as a
> country highly value freedom, even at a cost. Bash us if you like,
> but that's the way it is.

You apparently value your freedom more than the lives of your fellow
citizens, that's clear.

....that's about 1,700 out of the 2,0029 deaths per million people in
Indiana.

And with the alleged "draconian" restrictions that you liken to a prison
(which ones specifically, Liarboy, or do you just want to admit you made
that part up?), BC has had only 1,709 deaths, or just 337 per million.

So I hope the families and friends of the nearly 1,700 more per million
you've killed...

....the 11,390 people...

....I hope they share your feelings about the sacrifice that they've made
so 135,000 "screaming fans" could watch a car race.

I'm not really seeing how anyone could be proud of this.

On 2021-06-04 2:04 p.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 3:16:33 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>> On 2021-05-30 11:45 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>> On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 1:38:11 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>>>> On 2021-05-30 10:10 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>>>> You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home watching the race today? 135,000 rabid American race fans are there in person. That’s us, land of the free and home of the brave.
>>>>>
>>>> And the many thousands more dead.
>>>>
>>>> How many do you think might catch COVID-19 at Indy, Tom.
>>>>
>>>> How many is too many to you?
>>>
>>> They are adults. We have been living with this pandemic for well over a year. They know the risk. Who are you to judge? You got it. I’m not judging you.
>>>
>> Really?
>>
>> "crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home" wasn't a judgement?
>
> No, that's a fact.
>
> Meanwhile, BC is still locked down under the draconian May 28 restrictions that resemble what you would read about for a prison. I defy anyone to read and understand all of it. I note that those restrictions did not keep Alan Baker totally safe.
>
> Across the border, the land of the (relatively) free, COVID signage is quickly disappearing, and life is getting back to normal. 135,000 screaming fans cheered on Helio in a thrilling race finish. Summer concerts at numerous local sites are back. We have tickets to 9 of those at Symphony on the Prairie. July 4 fireworks are back. The private high school nearby already has outdoor seating set up for this weekend's graduation. They hosted an open house for prospective students and parents this past week. I was just over to Home Depot and all COVID signage is gone. Office workers are returning to their places of employment. We are canceling supplementary unemployment insurance and reinstating requirements for search for work documentation in some states with labor shortages. A group from our church has plans to go to Greece this summer. That's just a few examples.
>
> AND, Indiana and U.S. COVID cases and deaths are on the decline, and have been for some time. Yes, we paid a price, but we also benefited, from looser restrictions. Even when the Democrats took the presidency and effective control of Congress the restrictions trajectory did not change. There was not even much of a debate in most states. We as a country highly value freedom, even at a cost. Bash us if you like, but that's the way it is.
>

On Friday, June 4, 2021 at 5:56:05 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> On 2021-06-04 2:04 p.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 3:16:33 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> >> On 2021-05-30 11:45 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> >>> On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 1:38:11 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> >>>> On 2021-05-30 10:10 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> >>>>> You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home watching
> >>>>> the race today? 135,000 rabid American race fans are there in
> >>>>> person. That’s us, land of the free and home of the brave.
> >>>>>
> >>>> And the many thousands more dead.
> >>>>
> >>>> How many do you think might catch COVID-19 at Indy, Tom.
> >>>>
> >>>> How many is too many to you?
> >>>
> >>> They are adults. We have been living with this pandemic for well
> >>> over a year. They know the risk. Who are you to judge? You got
> >>> it. I’m not judging you.
> >>>
> >> Really?
> >>
> >> "crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home" wasn't a judgement?
> >
> > No, that's a fact.
> "crybaby" is a fact?
> >
> > Meanwhile, BC is still locked down under the draconian May 28
> > restrictions that resemble what you would read about for a prison. I
> > defy anyone to read and understand all of it. I note that those
> > restrictions did not keep Alan Baker totally safe.
> Under the extraordinary circumstance of allowing my terminally ill
> brother to have visitors from a province that didn't lock down and hence
> passed on COVID to two of us.
> >
> > Across the border, the land of the (relatively) free, COVID signage
> > is quickly disappearing, and life is getting back to normal. 135,000
> > screaming fans cheered on Helio in a thrilling race finish. Summer
> > concerts at numerous local sites are back. We have tickets to 9 of
> > those at Symphony on the Prairie. July 4 fireworks are back. The
> > private high school nearby already has outdoor seating set up for
> > this weekend's graduation. They hosted an open house for prospective
> > students and parents this past week. I was just over to Home Depot
> > and all COVID signage is gone. Office workers are returning to their
> > places of employment. We are canceling supplementary unemployment
> > insurance and reinstating requirements for search for work
> > documentation in some states with labor shortages. A group from our
> > church has plans to go to Greece this summer. That's just a few
> > examples.
> Great. Hope you don't get it and die.
>
> I hope those 135,000 screaming fans were all vaccinated.
> >
> > AND, Indiana and U.S. COVID cases and deaths are on the decline, and
> > have been for some time. Yes, we paid a price, but we also benefited,
> > from looser restrictions. Even when the Democrats took the presidency
> > and effective control of Congress the restrictions trajectory did not
> > change. There was not even much of a debate in most states. We as a
> > country highly value freedom, even at a cost. Bash us if you like,
> > but that's the way it is.
> You apparently value your freedom more than the lives of your fellow
> citizens, that's clear.

Alan, you don't get it. Maybe it's just beyond your ability to comprehend. I do not make the rules, I abide by them. As a country we decided to have a less restrictive COVID response policy than Canada and many other countries. I happen to largely agree with our collective decisions, but I am only one of millions of Americans who do. Millions of others don't.

We did not let COVID run rampant. We tried severe lockdowns and the economic impact was devastating. Despite the lockdowns NYC had a spike that overwhelmed the healthcare system. At the same time 10 million people lost their jobs in just a few weeks. Many of those were marginal workers.

It's not completely liberals versus conservatives either. Last night the 80% Democrat Indianapolis City/County Council voted to end mask mandates for the vaccinated, but with no way to police the change. The 20% Republican minority voted against the change. They did not agree with a enacting a policy without means of enforcement.

That mask mandate ended a month ago for most of the state. As of June 30 the state is planning to end the emergency and all remaining restriction mandates.

As a country we muddled through.

As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10 days ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases reported on June 6, most of which were a batch of historical data that were not back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that. Go to https://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it. I'll save you the trouble. https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing

And, tomorrow evening, for my 75th birthday, we are going to a live, indoor, musical theater performance. Are you going anywhere? Or will you be sitting at home feeling good about your wonderful BC government?

On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> On Friday, June 4, 2021 at 5:56:05 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>> On 2021-06-04 2:04 p.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>> On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 3:16:33 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>>>> On 2021-05-30 11:45 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>>>> On Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 1:38:11 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> On 2021-05-30 10:10 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>>>>>> You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home
>>>>>>> watching the race today? 135,000 rabid American race fans
>>>>>>> are there in person. That’s us, land of the free and home
>>>>>>> of the brave.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> And the many thousands more dead.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> How many do you think might catch COVID-19 at Indy, Tom.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> How many is too many to you?
>>>>>
>>>>> They are adults. We have been living with this pandemic for
>>>>> well over a year. They know the risk. Who are you to judge?
>>>>> You got it. I’m not judging you.
>>>>>
>>>> Really?
>>>>
>>>> "crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home" wasn't a judgement?
>>>
>>> No, that's a fact.
>> "crybaby" is a fact?
>>>
>>> Meanwhile, BC is still locked down under the draconian May 28
>>> restrictions that resemble what you would read about for a
>>> prison. I defy anyone to read and understand all of it. I note
>>> that those restrictions did not keep Alan Baker totally safe.
>> Under the extraordinary circumstance of allowing my terminally ill
>> brother to have visitors from a province that didn't lock down and
>> hence passed on COVID to two of us.
>>>
>>> Across the border, the land of the (relatively) free, COVID
>>> signage is quickly disappearing, and life is getting back to
>>> normal. 135,000 screaming fans cheered on Helio in a thrilling
>>> race finish. Summer concerts at numerous local sites are back. We
>>> have tickets to 9 of those at Symphony on the Prairie. July 4
>>> fireworks are back. The private high school nearby already has
>>> outdoor seating set up for this weekend's graduation. They hosted
>>> an open house for prospective students and parents this past
>>> week. I was just over to Home Depot and all COVID signage is
>>> gone. Office workers are returning to their places of employment.
>>> We are canceling supplementary unemployment insurance and
>>> reinstating requirements for search for work documentation in
>>> some states with labor shortages. A group from our church has
>>> plans to go to Greece this summer. That's just a few examples.
>> Great. Hope you don't get it and die.
>>
>> I hope those 135,000 screaming fans were all vaccinated.
>>>
>>> AND, Indiana and U.S. COVID cases and deaths are on the decline,
>>> and have been for some time. Yes, we paid a price, but we also
>>> benefited, from looser restrictions. Even when the Democrats took
>>> the presidency and effective control of Congress the restrictions
>>> trajectory did not change. There was not even much of a debate in
>>> most states. We as a country highly value freedom, even at a
>>> cost. Bash us if you like, but that's the way it is.
>> You apparently value your freedom more than the lives of your
>> fellow citizens, that's clear.
>
> Alan, you don't get it. Maybe it's just beyond your ability to
> comprehend. I do not make the rules, I abide by them. As a country we
> decided to have a less restrictive COVID response policy than Canada
> and many other countries. I happen to largely agree with our
> collective decisions, but I am only one of millions of Americans who
> do. Millions of others don't.
>

You do more than agree. You openly revel in the decisions that have
killed so many people who NEED NOT HAVE DIED. This whole thread starts
out with these words:

'You whimpering crybaby Canucks hunkered down at home watching the race
today? 135,000 rabid American race fans are there in person. That’s us,
land of the free and home of the brave.'

And contrary to your lies, we are not in "lockdown" in BC and have never
been. At the most, dine-in at restaurants and personal services shops
like barbers were closed for a while.

> We did not let COVID run rampant.

Yes. You did. That is precisely what your federal government did.

> We tried severe lockdowns and the
> economic impact was devastating. Despite the lockdowns NYC had a
> spike that overwhelmed the healthcare system. At the same time 10
> million people lost their jobs in just a few weeks. Many of those
> were marginal workers.

You had a president who was lying to the American people about the
severity of the situation; who did not stop travel from countries that
are largely responsible for that spike in NYC.

It's called closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

>
> It's not completely liberals versus conservatives either. Last night
> the 80% Democrat Indianapolis City/County Council voted to end mask
> mandates for the vaccinated, but with no way to police the change.
> The 20% Republican minority voted against the change. They did not
> agree with a enacting a policy without means of enforcement.
>
> That mask mandate ended a month ago for most of the state. As of June
> 30 the state is planning to end the emergency and all remaining
> restriction mandates.
>
> As a country we muddled through.

And killed many, many more people by your choices.

>
> As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10 days
> ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases reported on June
> 6, most of which were a batch of historical data that were not
> back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that.

You are good at "fixing" data.

> Go to
> https://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it. I'll
> save you the trouble.
> https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
>
> And, tomorrow evening, for my 75th birthday, we are going to a live,
> indoor, musical theater performance. Are you going anywhere? Or will
> you be sitting at home feeling good about your wonderful BC
> government?

I'll be sitting with my terminally ill brother, thanks for asking.

On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10 days
> ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases reported on June
> 6, most of which were a batch of historical data that were not
> back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that.
> Go
> tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it. I'll
> save you the
> trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?

<https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>

Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April 14...

....and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for an entire
month suddenly stopped...

....on May 30th.

Remind me:

What day was the Indy 500 run this year?

On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10 days
> > ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases reported on June
> > 6, most of which were a batch of historical data that were not
> > back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that.
> > Go
> > tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> > and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> > on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it. I'll
> > save you the
> > trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
>
> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
>
> Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April 14...
>
> ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for an entire
> month suddenly stopped...
>
> ...on May 30th.
>
> Remind me:
>
> What day was the Indy 500 run this year?

May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical positive cases that were all loaded into the system on June 2. 1161 is the total reported for the day on the website graph. Most of those cases occurred well before June 2, and distort the recent 7 day moving average. What you are seeing is not real. That "flattening" will go away at the end of the week when June 2 drops out of the 7 day window. In fact, on June 11 you will see a false picture of a 100+ case drop in the average.

Here is the quote on that historical case addition from the state site under Historical Changes: "6/03/2021 : A batch of historical negative and positive test results added 16,492 historical tests administered, 7,082 tested individuals, and 765 historical cases to today's counts. These cases are not included in the new positive counts but have been added to the total positive cases." These announcements pertain to the data released on that date for the day before. The statement is somewhat contradictory. The first sentence says that 765 cases were added to today's counts. The second sentence seems to contradict that.

The actual count reported for June 2 was 1161-765=396 and is consistent with the days before and after.

So if you look at the case numbers by the date the specimen was collected you get this: https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing

It's a more realistic picture, and shows the decline absent the batch of 765 historical case data reported as of June 2.

I'm not happy that the state does not go to the trouble to backdate positive case reports on their public-facing site. But, they don't.

Let's move the goalposts and look at U.S. versus Canada June 6 7 day MA case data. Cases are from the Bing site case data:

U.S. cases 10,766, population 333 million, 32 cases per million
Canada cases 1,676, population 38 million, 44 cases per million

Both trending down.

Interesting.

On 2021-06-08 11:19 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>> On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>> As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10
>>> days ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases
>>> reported on June 6, most of which were a batch of historical data
>>> that were not back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But
>>> we can fix that. Go
>>> tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
>>>
>>>
and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
>>> on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it.
>>> I'll save you the
>>> trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
>>
>>>
Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
>>
>> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
>>
>> Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April 14...
>>
>> ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for an
>> entire month suddenly stopped...
>>
>> ...on May 30th.
>>
>> Remind me:
>>
>> What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
>
> May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical positive cases
> that were all loaded into the system on June 2. 1161 is the total
> reported for the day on the website graph. Most of those cases
> occurred well before June 2, and distort the recent 7 day moving
> average. What you are seeing is not real. That "flattening" will go
> away at the end of the week when June 2 drops out of the 7 day
> window. In fact, on June 11 you will see a false picture of a 100+
> case drop in the average.

So your argument is that you know better than Johns Hopkins, is it, Liarboy?

>
> Here is the quote on that historical case addition from the state
> site under Historical Changes: "6/03/2021 : A batch of historical
> negative and positive test results added 16,492 historical tests
> administered, 7,082 tested individuals, and 765 historical cases to
> today's counts. These cases are not included in the new positive
> counts but have been added to the total positive cases." These
> announcements pertain to the data released on that date for the day
> before. The statement is somewhat contradictory. The first sentence
> says that 765 cases were added to today's counts. The second sentence
> seems to contradict that.
>
> The actual count reported for June 2 was 1161-765=396 and is
> consistent with the days before and after.
>
> So if you look at the case numbers by the date the specimen was
> collected you get this:
> https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing

Sorry, but I've seen you manipulate data before.

>
> It's a more realistic picture, and shows the decline absent the
> batch of 765 historical case data reported as of June 2.
>
> I'm not happy that the state does not go to the trouble to backdate
> positive case reports on their public-facing site. But, they don't.
>
> Let's move the goalposts and look at U.S. versus Canada June 6 7 day
> MA case data. Cases are from the Bing site case data:

I can see why you'd want to move the goalposts...

<snip>

On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:19:41 PM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> > On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > > As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10 days
> > > ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases reported on June
> > > 6, most of which were a batch of historical data that were not
> > > back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that.
> > > Go
> > > tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> > > and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> > > on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it. I'll
> > > save you the
> > > trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> > Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
> >
> > <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
> >
> > Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April 14...
> >
> > ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for an entire
> > month suddenly stopped...
> >
> > ...on May 30th.
> >
> > Remind me:
> >
> > What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
>
> May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical positive cases that were all loaded into the system on June 2.
> 1161 is the total reported for the day on the website graph.

Maybe try a different source, for this one doesn't have a spike on 2 June;
perhaps they were properly backdated?

<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/indiana/>

New Cases:
5/29 531
5/30 502
5/31 469
6/1 452
6/2 397
6/3 362
6/4 347

-hh

On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:22:28 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> On 2021-06-08 11:19 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> >> On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> >>> As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10
> >>> days ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases
> >>> reported on June 6, most of which were a batch of historical data
> >>> that were not back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But
> >>> we can fix that. Go
> >>> tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> >>>
> >>>
> and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> >>> on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it.
> >>> I'll save you the
> >>> trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> >>
> >>>
> Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
> >>
> >> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
> >>
> >> Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April 14...
> >>
> >> ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for an
> >> entire month suddenly stopped...
> >>
> >> ...on May 30th.
> >>
> >> Remind me:
> >>
> >> What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
> >
> > May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical positive cases
> > that were all loaded into the system on June 2. 1161 is the total
> > reported for the day on the website graph. Most of those cases
> > occurred well before June 2, and distort the recent 7 day moving
> > average. What you are seeing is not real. That "flattening" will go
> > away at the end of the week when June 2 drops out of the 7 day
> > window. In fact, on June 11 you will see a false picture of a 100+
> > case drop in the average.
> So your argument is that you know better than Johns Hopkins, is it, Liarboy?
> >
> > Here is the quote on that historical case addition from the state
> > site under Historical Changes: "6/03/2021 : A batch of historical
> > negative and positive test results added 16,492 historical tests
> > administered, 7,082 tested individuals, and 765 historical cases to
> > today's counts. These cases are not included in the new positive
> > counts but have been added to the total positive cases." These
> > announcements pertain to the data released on that date for the day
> > before. The statement is somewhat contradictory. The first sentence
> > says that 765 cases were added to today's counts. The second sentence
> > seems to contradict that.
> >
> > The actual count reported for June 2 was 1161-765=396 and is
> > consistent with the days before and after.
> >
> > So if you look at the case numbers by the date the specimen was
> > collected you get this:
> > https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> Sorry, but I've seen you manipulate data before.
> >
> > It's a more realistic picture, and shows the decline absent the
> > batch of 765 historical case data reported as of June 2.
> >
> > I'm not happy that the state does not go to the trouble to backdate
> > positive case reports on their public-facing site. But, they don't.
> >
> > Let's move the goalposts and look at U.S. versus Canada June 6 7 day
> > MA case data. Cases are from the Bing site case data:
> I can see why you'd want to move the goalposts...
>
> <snip>

The John's Hopkins data is an exact copy of the data on the Indiana site. It also contains the one day June 2 spike of cases referenced in the Indiana site quote I copied into my post. That one day spike is an artifact created by not backdating a batch of historical cases received on June 2.

Alan, I also gave you a link to the state data site. You can download the "COVID-19 STATEWIDE TEST, CASE, AND DEATH TRENDS" file from the supplied link and see for yourself but you won't do that. Do you think I can manipulate the data on that site? Just like you Liarboy to ignore clear evidence that you are wrong.

You are way out of your league here. I look at the Indiana numbers every day. Do you?

You can sure see why I looked at the bigger picture. It paints Canada in a very different light. Flawed as it was, the U.S. approach is paying recent dividends in higher induced + acquired immunity than Canada. I will not argue the point that it came at a high cost.

You present Canada as a wonderful, egalitarian, society that takes care of its people. It's not always. Not that America is anywhere near perfect either, but: https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/out-of-sight-out-of-mind-2/

On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 3:57:40 PM UTC-4, -hh wrote:
> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:19:41 PM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> > > On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > > > As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10 days
> > > > ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases reported on June
> > > > 6, most of which were a batch of historical data that were not
> > > > back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that.
> > > > Go
> > > > tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> > > > and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> > > > on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it. I'll
> > > > save you the
> > > > trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> > > Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
> > >
> > > <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
> > >
> > > Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April 14...
> > >
> > > ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for an entire
> > > month suddenly stopped...
> > >
> > > ...on May 30th.
> > >
> > > Remind me:
> > >
> > > What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
> >
> > May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical positive cases that were all loaded into the system on June 2.
> > 1161 is the total reported for the day on the website graph.
> Maybe try a different source, for this one doesn't have a spike on 2 June;
> perhaps they were properly backdated?
>
> <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/indiana/>
>
> New Cases:
> 5/29 531
> 5/30 502
> 5/31 469
> 6/1 452
> 6/2 397
> 6/3 362
> 6/4 347
>
> -hh

Interesting. That's a new source to me. The trends are the same, but unlike the Johns Hopkins source the total and daily case and death numbers do not exactly match the source data from our state records. I would like to know where they are getting their numbers. Regardless this source also shows no data issue spike on June 2.

On Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 9:21:36 AM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 3:57:40 PM UTC-4, -hh wrote:
> > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:19:41 PM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> > > > On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > > > > As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10 days
> > > > > ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases reported on June
> > > > > 6, most of which were a batch of historical data that were not
> > > > > back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that.
> > > > > Go
> > > > > tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> > > > > and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> > > > > on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it. I'll
> > > > > save you the
> > > > > trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> > > > Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
> > > >
> > > > <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
> > > >
> > > > Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April 14...
> > > >
> > > > ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for an entire
> > > > month suddenly stopped...
> > > >
> > > > ...on May 30th.
> > > >
> > > > Remind me:
> > > >
> > > > What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
> > >
> > > May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical positive cases that were all loaded into the system on June 2.
> > > 1161 is the total reported for the day on the website graph.
> > Maybe try a different source, for this one doesn't have a spike on 2 June;
> > perhaps they were properly backdated?
> >
> > <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/indiana/>
> >
> > New Cases:
> > 5/29 531
> > 5/30 502
> > 5/31 469
> > 6/1 452
> > 6/2 397
> > 6/3 362
> > 6/4 347
>
>
> Interesting. That's a new source to me.

Its the one that I've been using ... and referencing in posts ... for the past year.

> The trends are the same, but unlike the Johns Hopkins source the total and daily
> case and death numbers do not exactly match the source data from our state
> records. I would like to know where they are getting their numbers. Regardless
> this source also shows no data issue spike on June 2.

I've not crosswalked exactly where they're pulling their numbers from, but they've
been quite consistent overall - - their total mortality count tends to run a little higher
than some other sources, which could simply be that their workflow to digest the
daily national reports works better so they're publishing earlier.

Another part of this is that they are also not 'freezing' their historical data, but it
has been getting "backdated" reports added in too. For example, I found that the
State-level data ending the week of 5/31/21 had had revisions in mortality for NM,
GA, MD, CA, WI, and OK, and that the revised data stretched back in most cases to
at least 04 Jan 2021. My speculation for what's going on with this is that there's
finally been some decent top-down Federal guidance on how to count properly,
so States have been reviewing their Coroner's records which takes time. I've found
data revisions from MO, OH, AK, NE, WV (only one so far which actually went down
instead of up), AK, OK, CA, KY (twice), NE, WV, and AR ... all since March.

-hh

On 2021-06-09 6:06 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:22:28 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>> On 2021-06-08 11:19 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>>>> On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>>>> As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been
>>>>> 10 days ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases
>>>>> reported on June 6, most of which were a batch of historical
>>>>> data that were not back-dated on the state COVID website's
>>>>> graph. But we can fix that. Go
>>>>> tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>
>>>>>
and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
>>>>> on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph
>>>>> it. I'll save you the
>>>>> trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
>>>>
>>>>>
>>
>>>>>
Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
>>>>
>>>> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
>>>>
>>>> Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April
>>>> 14...
>>>>
>>>> ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for
>>>> an entire month suddenly stopped...
>>>>
>>>> ...on May 30th.
>>>>
>>>> Remind me:
>>>>
>>>> What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
>>>
>>> May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical positive
>>> cases that were all loaded into the system on June 2. 1161 is the
>>> total reported for the day on the website graph. Most of those
>>> cases occurred well before June 2, and distort the recent 7 day
>>> moving average. What you are seeing is not real. That
>>> "flattening" will go away at the end of the week when June 2
>>> drops out of the 7 day window. In fact, on June 11 you will see a
>>> false picture of a 100+ case drop in the average.
>> So your argument is that you know better than Johns Hopkins, is it,
>> Liarboy?
>>>
>>> Here is the quote on that historical case addition from the
>>> state site under Historical Changes: "6/03/2021 : A batch of
>>> historical negative and positive test results added 16,492
>>> historical tests administered, 7,082 tested individuals, and 765
>>> historical cases to today's counts. These cases are not included
>>> in the new positive counts but have been added to the total
>>> positive cases." These announcements pertain to the data released
>>> on that date for the day before. The statement is somewhat
>>> contradictory. The first sentence says that 765 cases were added
>>> to today's counts. The second sentence seems to contradict that.
>>>
>>> The actual count reported for June 2 was 1161-765=396 and is
>>> consistent with the days before and after.
>>>
>>> So if you look at the case numbers by the date the specimen was
>>> collected you get this:
>>> https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
>>
>>>
Sorry, but I've seen you manipulate data before.
>>>
>>> It's a more realistic picture, and shows the decline absent the
>>> batch of 765 historical case data reported as of June 2.
>>>
>>> I'm not happy that the state does not go to the trouble to
>>> backdate positive case reports on their public-facing site. But,
>>> they don't.
>>>
>>> Let's move the goalposts and look at U.S. versus Canada June 6 7
>>> day MA case data. Cases are from the Bing site case data:
>> I can see why you'd want to move the goalposts...
>>
>> <snip>
>
> The John's Hopkins data is an exact copy of the data on the Indiana
> site. It also contains the one day June 2 spike of cases referenced
> in the Indiana site quote I copied into my post. That one day spike
> is an artifact created by not backdating a batch of historical cases
> received on June 2.
>
> Alan, I also gave you a link to the state data site. You can download
> the "COVID-19 STATEWIDE TEST, CASE, AND DEATH TRENDS" file from the
> supplied link and see for yourself but you won't do that. Do you
> think I can manipulate the data on that site? Just like you Liarboy
> to ignore clear evidence that you are wrong.
>
> You are way out of your league here. I look at the Indiana numbers
> every day. Do you?
>
> You can sure see why I looked at the bigger picture. It paints Canada
> in a very different light. Flawed as it was, the U.S. approach is
> paying recent dividends in higher induced + acquired immunity than
> Canada. I will not argue the point that it came at a high cost.
>
> You present Canada as a wonderful, egalitarian, society that takes
> care of its people. It's not always. Not that America is anywhere
> near perfect either, but:
> https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/out-of-sight-out-of-mind-2/
>

US: Approx. 613,000 deaths or 1,840 deaths per million people.

Canada: Approx. 27,000 deaths or 686 deaths per million.

On Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 9:56:03 AM UTC-4, -hh wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 9:21:36 AM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 3:57:40 PM UTC-4, -hh wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:19:41 PM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> > > > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> > > > > On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > > > > > As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10 days
> > > > > > ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases reported on June
> > > > > > 6, most of which were a batch of historical data that were not
> > > > > > back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that.
> > > > > > Go
> > > > > > tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> > > > > > and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> > > > > > on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it.. I'll
> > > > > > save you the
> > > > > > trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> > > > > Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
> > > > >
> > > > > <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
> > > > >
> > > > > Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April 14....
> > > > >
> > > > > ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for an entire
> > > > > month suddenly stopped...
> > > > >
> > > > > ...on May 30th.
> > > > >
> > > > > Remind me:
> > > > >
> > > > > What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
> > > >
> > > > May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical positive cases that were all loaded into the system on June 2.
> > > > 1161 is the total reported for the day on the website graph.
> > > Maybe try a different source, for this one doesn't have a spike on 2 June;
> > > perhaps they were properly backdated?
> > >
> > > <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/indiana/>
> > >
> > > New Cases:
> > > 5/29 531
> > > 5/30 502
> > > 5/31 469
> > > 6/1 452
> > > 6/2 397
> > > 6/3 362
> > > 6/4 347
> >
> >
> > Interesting. That's a new source to me.
> Its the one that I've been using ... and referencing in posts ... for the past year.
> > The trends are the same, but unlike the Johns Hopkins source the total and daily
> > case and death numbers do not exactly match the source data from our state
> > records. I would like to know where they are getting their numbers. Regardless
> > this source also shows no data issue spike on June 2.
> I've not crosswalked exactly where they're pulling their numbers from, but they've
> been quite consistent overall - - their total mortality count tends to run a little higher
> than some other sources, which could simply be that their workflow to digest the
> daily national reports works better so they're publishing earlier.
>
> Another part of this is that they are also not 'freezing' their historical data, but it
> has been getting "backdated" reports added in too. For example, I found that the
> State-level data ending the week of 5/31/21 had had revisions in mortality for NM,
> GA, MD, CA, WI, and OK, and that the revised data stretched back in most cases to
> at least 04 Jan 2021. My speculation for what's going on with this is that there's
> finally been some decent top-down Federal guidance on how to count properly,
> so States have been reviewing their Coroner's records which takes time. I've found
> data revisions from MO, OH, AK, NE, WV (only one so far which actually went down
> instead of up), AK, OK, CA, KY (twice), NE, WV, and AR ... all since March.
>
>
> -hh
Interesting. You can actually see that backdating in real time for the Indiana death numbers. The daily reports have shown a range of newly reported deaths, some going back to last year. There was a large addition to deaths early this year after the health department finished its death certificate annual audit. Strangely, the department does not backdate new cases reports. They always show up in a batch on the date received. That's why I think the date the specimen was taken is a more accurate indicator of the case trend.

On Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 12:12:58 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> On 2021-06-09 6:06 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:22:28 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> >> On 2021-06-08 11:19 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> >>> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> >>>> On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> >>>>> As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been
> >>>>> 10 days ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases
> >>>>> reported on June 6, most of which were a batch of historical
> >>>>> data that were not back-dated on the state COVID website's
> >>>>> graph. But we can fix that. Go
> >>>>> tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>
> >>>>>
> and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> >>>>> on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph
> >>>>> it. I'll save you the
> >>>>> trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> >>>>
> >>>>>
> >>
> >>>>>
> Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
> >>>>
> >>>> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
> >>>>
> >>>> Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April
> >>>> 14...
> >>>>
> >>>> ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for
> >>>> an entire month suddenly stopped...
> >>>>
> >>>> ...on May 30th.
> >>>>
> >>>> Remind me:
> >>>>
> >>>> What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
> >>>
> >>> May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical positive
> >>> cases that were all loaded into the system on June 2. 1161 is the
> >>> total reported for the day on the website graph. Most of those
> >>> cases occurred well before June 2, and distort the recent 7 day
> >>> moving average. What you are seeing is not real. That
> >>> "flattening" will go away at the end of the week when June 2
> >>> drops out of the 7 day window. In fact, on June 11 you will see a
> >>> false picture of a 100+ case drop in the average.
> >> So your argument is that you know better than Johns Hopkins, is it,
> >> Liarboy?
> >>>
> >>> Here is the quote on that historical case addition from the
> >>> state site under Historical Changes: "6/03/2021 : A batch of
> >>> historical negative and positive test results added 16,492
> >>> historical tests administered, 7,082 tested individuals, and 765
> >>> historical cases to today's counts. These cases are not included
> >>> in the new positive counts but have been added to the total
> >>> positive cases." These announcements pertain to the data released
> >>> on that date for the day before. The statement is somewhat
> >>> contradictory. The first sentence says that 765 cases were added
> >>> to today's counts. The second sentence seems to contradict that.
> >>>
> >>> The actual count reported for June 2 was 1161-765=396 and is
> >>> consistent with the days before and after.
> >>>
> >>> So if you look at the case numbers by the date the specimen was
> >>> collected you get this:
> >>> https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> >>
> >>>
> Sorry, but I've seen you manipulate data before.
> >>>
> >>> It's a more realistic picture, and shows the decline absent the
> >>> batch of 765 historical case data reported as of June 2.
> >>>
> >>> I'm not happy that the state does not go to the trouble to
> >>> backdate positive case reports on their public-facing site. But,
> >>> they don't.
> >>>
> >>> Let's move the goalposts and look at U.S. versus Canada June 6 7
> >>> day MA case data. Cases are from the Bing site case data:
> >> I can see why you'd want to move the goalposts...
> >>
> >> <snip>
> >
> > The John's Hopkins data is an exact copy of the data on the Indiana
> > site. It also contains the one day June 2 spike of cases referenced
> > in the Indiana site quote I copied into my post. That one day spike
> > is an artifact created by not backdating a batch of historical cases
> > received on June 2.
> >
> > Alan, I also gave you a link to the state data site. You can download
> > the "COVID-19 STATEWIDE TEST, CASE, AND DEATH TRENDS" file from the
> > supplied link and see for yourself but you won't do that. Do you
> > think I can manipulate the data on that site? Just like you Liarboy
> > to ignore clear evidence that you are wrong.
> >
> > You are way out of your league here. I look at the Indiana numbers
> > every day. Do you?
> >
> > You can sure see why I looked at the bigger picture. It paints Canada
> > in a very different light. Flawed as it was, the U.S. approach is
> > paying recent dividends in higher induced + acquired immunity than
> > Canada. I will not argue the point that it came at a high cost.
> >
> > You present Canada as a wonderful, egalitarian, society that takes
> > care of its people. It's not always. Not that America is anywhere
> > near perfect either, but:
> > https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/out-of-sight-out-of-mind-2/
> >
> US: Approx. 613,000 deaths or 1,840 deaths per million people.
>
> Canada: Approx. 27,000 deaths or 686 deaths per million.

Did I not just say we paid a high cost for our approach to COVID? Can you comprehend that deaths is not the only metric to measure success?

Go look at the Indiana case numbers as of June 9. The 7 day MA dropped from 439 on the 8th to 325 on the 9th. The 325 is consistent with the numbers over the last week. So I ask again, where is the post-500 race surge?

Then look at the deaths graph. See that recent trend. Is it up or down?

On Thursday, June 10, 2021 at 12:07:24 PM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 9:56:03 AM UTC-4, -hh wrote:
> > On Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 9:21:36 AM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 3:57:40 PM UTC-4, -hh wrote:
> > > > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:19:41 PM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> > > > > On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> > > > > > On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > > > > > > As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's been 10 days
> > > > > > > ago, and the trend is still down despite 1,165 cases reported on June
> > > > > > > 6, most of which were a batch of historical data that were not
> > > > > > > back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that.
> > > > > > > Go
> > > > > > > tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> > > > > > > and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> > > > > > > on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then graph it. I'll
> > > > > > > save you the
> > > > > > > trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> > > > > > Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April 14...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend for an entire
> > > > > > month suddenly stopped...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ...on May 30th.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Remind me:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
> > > > >
> > > > > May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical positive cases that were all loaded into the system on June 2.
> > > > > 1161 is the total reported for the day on the website graph.
> > > > Maybe try a different source, for this one doesn't have a spike on 2 June;
> > > > perhaps they were properly backdated?
> > > >
> > > > <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/indiana/>
> > > >
> > > > New Cases:
> > > > 5/29 531
> > > > 5/30 502
> > > > 5/31 469
> > > > 6/1 452
> > > > 6/2 397
> > > > 6/3 362
> > > > 6/4 347
> > >
> > >
> > > Interesting. That's a new source to me.
> > Its the one that I've been using ... and referencing in posts ... for the past year.
> > > The trends are the same, but unlike the Johns Hopkins source the total and daily
> > > case and death numbers do not exactly match the source data from our state
> > > records. I would like to know where they are getting their numbers. Regardless
> > > this source also shows no data issue spike on June 2.
> > I've not crosswalked exactly where they're pulling their numbers from, but they've
> > been quite consistent overall - - their total mortality count tends to run a little higher
> > than some other sources, which could simply be that their workflow to digest the
> > daily national reports works better so they're publishing earlier.
> >
> > Another part of this is that they are also not 'freezing' their historical data, but it
> > has been getting "backdated" reports added in too. For example, I found that the
> > State-level data ending the week of 5/31/21 had had revisions in mortality for NM,
> > GA, MD, CA, WI, and OK, and that the revised data stretched back in most cases to
> > at least 04 Jan 2021. My speculation for what's going on with this is that there's
> > finally been some decent top-down Federal guidance on how to count properly,
> > so States have been reviewing their Coroner's records which takes time. I've found
> > data revisions from MO, OH, AK, NE, WV (only one so far which actually went down
> > instead of up), AK, OK, CA, KY (twice), NE, WV, and AR ... all since March.
>
>
> Interesting. You can actually see that backdating in real time for the Indiana death numbers.

Yup.

Here's a quick-n-dirty string of total mortality values for Indiana, starting on Sunday
12/20/20 thru Sunday 5/30/21; ones marked with a * were amended as of 7 Feb 21:

8503 9008 9734 10320 10694 11161* 11463* 11,817* 12,173
12,372 12,573 12,737 12,856 12,946 13,023 13,074 13,148 13,224
13,274 13,349 13,418 13,480 13,553 13,620

11161 ... was previously 9974
11463 ... was previously 9728

Because 9728 (24 Jan) is lower than the two prior weeks, then at least these
two weeks must have been revised too. I don't have record of it because this
was prior to a change in my methodology to data entry; I previously used the
7-day average daily mortality rate but switched to the cumulative mortality total
each week ... a labor savings, plus the accidental benefit that it brings these
revisions to light.

> The daily reports have shown a range of newly reported deaths, some going
> back to last year. There was a large addition to deaths early this year after
> the health department finished its death certificate annual audit. Strangely,
> the department does not backdate new cases reports. They always show up
> in a batch on the date received. That's why I think the date the specimen was
> taken is a more accurate indicator of the case trend.

Doing batches that way was probably 'good enough' for normal years, as data
was probably turned around quickly enough that the delay was small enough
to not matter. With the pandemic surge, the reporting system got overloaded,
increasing the lag. Since one shouldn't change horses in midstream, the system
is what it is.

There will eventually be some Graduate student project within a few years whose
job it will be to go back through the data and use the 'date tested' or 'received' dates
to present the data in that fashion, which will provide better insight on community
spread rates/etc.

-hh

On 2021-06-10 9:14 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 12:12:58 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>> On 2021-06-09 6:06 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:22:28 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>>>> On 2021-06-08 11:19 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>>>> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>>>>>> As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's
>>>>>>> been 10 days ago, and the trend is still down despite
>>>>>>> 1,165 cases reported on June 6, most of which were a
>>>>>>> batch of historical data that were not back-dated on the
>>>>>>> state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that. Go
>>>>>>> tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>
>>>>>>>
and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
>>>>>>> on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then
>>>>>>> graph it. I'll save you the
>>>>>>> trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>
>>>>>>>
Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April
>>>>>> 14...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend
>>>>>> for an entire month suddenly stopped...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ...on May 30th.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Remind me:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
>>>>>
>>>>> May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical
>>>>> positive cases that were all loaded into the system on June
>>>>> 2. 1161 is the total reported for the day on the website
>>>>> graph. Most of those cases occurred well before June 2, and
>>>>> distort the recent 7 day moving average. What you are seeing
>>>>> is not real. That "flattening" will go away at the end of the
>>>>> week when June 2 drops out of the 7 day window. In fact, on
>>>>> June 11 you will see a false picture of a 100+ case drop in
>>>>> the average.
>>>> So your argument is that you know better than Johns Hopkins, is
>>>> it, Liarboy?
>>>>>
>>>>> Here is the quote on that historical case addition from the
>>>>> state site under Historical Changes: "6/03/2021 : A batch of
>>>>> historical negative and positive test results added 16,492
>>>>> historical tests administered, 7,082 tested individuals, and
>>>>> 765 historical cases to today's counts. These cases are not
>>>>> included in the new positive counts but have been added to
>>>>> the total positive cases." These announcements pertain to the
>>>>> data released on that date for the day before. The statement
>>>>> is somewhat contradictory. The first sentence says that 765
>>>>> cases were added to today's counts. The second sentence seems
>>>>> to contradict that.
>>>>>
>>>>> The actual count reported for June 2 was 1161-765=396 and is
>>>>> consistent with the days before and after.
>>>>>
>>>>> So if you look at the case numbers by the date the specimen
>>>>> was collected you get this:
>>>>> https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
>>>>
>>>>>
>>
>>>>>
Sorry, but I've seen you manipulate data before.
>>>>>
>>>>> It's a more realistic picture, and shows the decline absent
>>>>> the batch of 765 historical case data reported as of June 2.
>>>>>
>>>>> I'm not happy that the state does not go to the trouble to
>>>>> backdate positive case reports on their public-facing site.
>>>>> But, they don't.
>>>>>
>>>>> Let's move the goalposts and look at U.S. versus Canada June
>>>>> 6 7 day MA case data. Cases are from the Bing site case
>>>>> data:
>>>> I can see why you'd want to move the goalposts...
>>>>
>>>> <snip>
>>>
>>> The John's Hopkins data is an exact copy of the data on the
>>> Indiana site. It also contains the one day June 2 spike of cases
>>> referenced in the Indiana site quote I copied into my post. That
>>> one day spike is an artifact created by not backdating a batch of
>>> historical cases received on June 2.
>>>
>>> Alan, I also gave you a link to the state data site. You can
>>> download the "COVID-19 STATEWIDE TEST, CASE, AND DEATH TRENDS"
>>> file from the supplied link and see for yourself but you won't do
>>> that. Do you think I can manipulate the data on that site? Just
>>> like you Liarboy to ignore clear evidence that you are wrong.
>>>
>>> You are way out of your league here. I look at the Indiana
>>> numbers every day. Do you?
>>>
>>> You can sure see why I looked at the bigger picture. It paints
>>> Canada in a very different light. Flawed as it was, the U.S.
>>> approach is paying recent dividends in higher induced + acquired
>>> immunity than Canada. I will not argue the point that it came at
>>> a high cost.
>>>
>>> You present Canada as a wonderful, egalitarian, society that
>>> takes care of its people. It's not always. Not that America is
>>> anywhere near perfect either, but:
>>> https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/out-of-sight-out-of-mind-2/
>>>
>> US: Approx. 613,000 deaths or 1,840 deaths per million people.
>>
>> Canada: Approx. 27,000 deaths or 686 deaths per million.
>
> Did I not just say we paid a high cost for our approach to COVID? Can
> you comprehend that deaths is not the only metric to measure
> success?
>
> Go look at the Indiana case numbers as of June 9. The 7 day MA
> dropped from 439 on the 8th to 325 on the 9th. The 325 is consistent
> with the numbers over the last week. So I ask again, where is the
> post-500 race surge?

'Federal guidelines advise that states wait until they experience a
downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period before
proceeding to a phased opening. In the state-specific view of the graph,
this two-week period is highlighted in orange if cases are trending
upward, or green if they are trending down.'

<https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>

What colour is highlighting, Liarboy.

>
> Then look at the deaths graph. See that recent trend. Is it up or
> down?
>

Deaths trail cases by quite a bit.

On Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 10:06:09 AM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> On 2021-06-10 9:14 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> > On Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 12:12:58 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> >> On 2021-06-09 6:06 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> >>> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:22:28 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> >>>> On 2021-06-08 11:19 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> >>>>> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker
> >>>>> wrote:
> >>>>>> On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> >>>>>>> As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases? It's
> >>>>>>> been 10 days ago, and the trend is still down despite
> >>>>>>> 1,165 cases reported on June 6, most of which were a
> >>>>>>> batch of historical data that were not back-dated on the
> >>>>>>> state COVID website's graph. But we can fix that. Go
> >>>>>>> tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>
> >>>>>>>
> and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
> >>>>>>> on positive tests by date of specimen collection. Then
> >>>>>>> graph it. I'll save you the
> >>>>>>> trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>
> >>>>>>>
> Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April
> >>>>>> 14...
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> ...and notice that what had been a steady downward trend
> >>>>>> for an entire month suddenly stopped...
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> ...on May 30th.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Remind me:
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
> >>>>>
> >>>>> May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical
> >>>>> positive cases that were all loaded into the system on June
> >>>>> 2. 1161 is the total reported for the day on the website
> >>>>> graph. Most of those cases occurred well before June 2, and
> >>>>> distort the recent 7 day moving average. What you are seeing
> >>>>> is not real. That "flattening" will go away at the end of the
> >>>>> week when June 2 drops out of the 7 day window. In fact, on
> >>>>> June 11 you will see a false picture of a 100+ case drop in
> >>>>> the average.
> >>>> So your argument is that you know better than Johns Hopkins, is
> >>>> it, Liarboy?
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Here is the quote on that historical case addition from the
> >>>>> state site under Historical Changes: "6/03/2021 : A batch of
> >>>>> historical negative and positive test results added 16,492
> >>>>> historical tests administered, 7,082 tested individuals, and
> >>>>> 765 historical cases to today's counts. These cases are not
> >>>>> included in the new positive counts but have been added to
> >>>>> the total positive cases." These announcements pertain to the
> >>>>> data released on that date for the day before. The statement
> >>>>> is somewhat contradictory. The first sentence says that 765
> >>>>> cases were added to today's counts. The second sentence seems
> >>>>> to contradict that.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The actual count reported for June 2 was 1161-765=396 and is
> >>>>> consistent with the days before and after.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> So if you look at the case numbers by the date the specimen
> >>>>> was collected you get this:
> >>>>> https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
> >>>>
> >>>>>
> >>
> >>>>>
> Sorry, but I've seen you manipulate data before.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> It's a more realistic picture, and shows the decline absent
> >>>>> the batch of 765 historical case data reported as of June 2.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I'm not happy that the state does not go to the trouble to
> >>>>> backdate positive case reports on their public-facing site.
> >>>>> But, they don't.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Let's move the goalposts and look at U.S. versus Canada June
> >>>>> 6 7 day MA case data. Cases are from the Bing site case
> >>>>> data:
> >>>> I can see why you'd want to move the goalposts...
> >>>>
> >>>> <snip>
> >>>
> >>> The John's Hopkins data is an exact copy of the data on the
> >>> Indiana site. It also contains the one day June 2 spike of cases
> >>> referenced in the Indiana site quote I copied into my post. That
> >>> one day spike is an artifact created by not backdating a batch of
> >>> historical cases received on June 2.
> >>>
> >>> Alan, I also gave you a link to the state data site. You can
> >>> download the "COVID-19 STATEWIDE TEST, CASE, AND DEATH TRENDS"
> >>> file from the supplied link and see for yourself but you won't do
> >>> that. Do you think I can manipulate the data on that site? Just
> >>> like you Liarboy to ignore clear evidence that you are wrong.
> >>>
> >>> You are way out of your league here. I look at the Indiana
> >>> numbers every day. Do you?
> >>>
> >>> You can sure see why I looked at the bigger picture. It paints
> >>> Canada in a very different light. Flawed as it was, the U.S.
> >>> approach is paying recent dividends in higher induced + acquired
> >>> immunity than Canada. I will not argue the point that it came at
> >>> a high cost.
> >>>
> >>> You present Canada as a wonderful, egalitarian, society that
> >>> takes care of its people. It's not always. Not that America is
> >>> anywhere near perfect either, but:
> >>> https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/out-of-sight-out-of-mind-2/
> >>>
> >> US: Approx. 613,000 deaths or 1,840 deaths per million people.
> >>
> >> Canada: Approx. 27,000 deaths or 686 deaths per million.
> >
> > Did I not just say we paid a high cost for our approach to COVID? Can
> > you comprehend that deaths is not the only metric to measure
> > success?
> >
> > Go look at the Indiana case numbers as of June 9. The 7 day MA
> > dropped from 439 on the 8th to 325 on the 9th. The 325 is consistent
> > with the numbers over the last week. So I ask again, where is the
> > post-500 race surge?
> 'Federal guidelines advise that states wait until they experience a
> downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period before
> proceeding to a phased opening. In the state-specific view of the graph,
> this two-week period is highlighted in orange if cases are trending
> upward, or green if they are trending down.'
>
> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
>
> What colour is highlighting, Liarboy.
> >
> > Then look at the deaths graph. See that recent trend. Is it up or
> > down?
> >
> Deaths trail cases by quite a bit.

Did you even look at the graph? Cases have been declining for months with a short uptick. As of June 30 all statewide restrictions will end.

Don’t rely on secondary data. Go to the source. https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm

On Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 6:05:18 PM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> On Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 10:06:09 AM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> > …
> > Deaths trail cases by quite a bit.

IIRC, it had been a bit over 22 days.

> Did you even look at the graph? Cases have been declining for months
> with a short uptick.

Oh, so an uptick ~2 weeks after Indy?
Wasn’t that the point?

> As of June 30 all statewide restrictions will end.

Contingent on that uptick not continuing..?

> Deaths do lag cases. Those are declining too, along with cases.
> Deaths are likely to not increase with declining cases.

Except for the uptick…right?

> So, Alan, it’s now over two weeks since the Indy 500. Where’s the
> case surge?

Didn’t you already admit to an uptick, albeit currently small?

> … In 2 weeks I’ll go to an outdoor concert featuring the Symphony
> performing Beatles. A rocking good time.

I’m going this week; the Nerds.

> Have fun sitting at home looking out your condo window.

Given how Canada is ~3 months behind the US in vaccinations,
it only makes sense that different precautions may be merited,
even when their case rates are better than what the US was at
that level of vaccination.

-hh

On 2021-06-15 3:05 p.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> On Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 10:06:09 AM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>> On 2021-06-10 9:14 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>> On Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 12:12:58 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker
>>> wrote:
>>>> On 2021-06-09 6:06 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>>>> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 2:22:28 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> On 2021-06-08 11:19 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>>>>>> On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 at 1:33:07 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker
>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 2021-06-08 9:32 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
>>>>>>>>> As for the 500 race, where is the spike in cases?
>>>>>>>>> It's been 10 days ago, and the trend is still down
>>>>>>>>> despite 1,165 cases reported on June 6, most of which
>>>>>>>>> were a batch of historical data that were not
>>>>>>>>> back-dated on the state COVID website's graph. But we
>>>>>>>>> can fix that. Go
>>>>>>>>> tohttps://hub.mph.in.gov/dataset/covid-19-case-trend/resource/182b6742-edac-442d-8eeb-62f96b17773e
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>
>>>>>>>>>
and download the Excel data. Go to the last column and do a 7 day MA
>>>>>>>>> on positive tests by date of specimen collection.
>>>>>>>>> Then graph it. I'll save you the
>>>>>>>>> trouble.https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>
>>>>>>>>>
Ask Johns Hopkins. You've heard of them, right?
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>
>>>>>>>>
Focus in on the data from after the last local peak on April
>>>>>>>> 14...
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> ...and notice that what had been a steady downward
>>>>>>>> trend for an entire month suddenly stopped...
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> ...on May 30th.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Remind me:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> What day was the Indy 500 run this year?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> May 30 for the race. Then we got a dump of historical
>>>>>>> positive cases that were all loaded into the system on
>>>>>>> June 2. 1161 is the total reported for the day on the
>>>>>>> website graph. Most of those cases occurred well before
>>>>>>> June 2, and distort the recent 7 day moving average. What
>>>>>>> you are seeing is not real. That "flattening" will go
>>>>>>> away at the end of the week when June 2 drops out of the
>>>>>>> 7 day window. In fact, on June 11 you will see a false
>>>>>>> picture of a 100+ case drop in the average.
>>>>>> So your argument is that you know better than Johns
>>>>>> Hopkins, is it, Liarboy?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Here is the quote on that historical case addition from
>>>>>>> the state site under Historical Changes: "6/03/2021 : A
>>>>>>> batch of historical negative and positive test results
>>>>>>> added 16,492 historical tests administered, 7,082 tested
>>>>>>> individuals, and 765 historical cases to today's counts.
>>>>>>> These cases are not included in the new positive counts
>>>>>>> but have been added to the total positive cases." These
>>>>>>> announcements pertain to the data released on that date
>>>>>>> for the day before. The statement is somewhat
>>>>>>> contradictory. The first sentence says that 765 cases
>>>>>>> were added to today's counts. The second sentence seems
>>>>>>> to contradict that.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The actual count reported for June 2 was 1161-765=396 and
>>>>>>> is consistent with the days before and after.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> So if you look at the case numbers by the date the
>>>>>>> specimen was collected you get this:
>>>>>>> https://drive.google.com/file/d/141BSLo9HbCAslRaHUFP5iPt05_9yH_wh/view?usp=sharing
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>
>>>>>>>
Sorry, but I've seen you manipulate data before.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> It's a more realistic picture, and shows the decline
>>>>>>> absent the batch of 765 historical case data reported as
>>>>>>> of June 2.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I'm not happy that the state does not go to the trouble
>>>>>>> to backdate positive case reports on their public-facing
>>>>>>> site. But, they don't.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Let's move the goalposts and look at U.S. versus Canada
>>>>>>> June 6 7 day MA case data. Cases are from the Bing site
>>>>>>> case data:
>>>>>> I can see why you'd want to move the goalposts...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> <snip>
>>>>>
>>>>> The John's Hopkins data is an exact copy of the data on the
>>>>> Indiana site. It also contains the one day June 2 spike of
>>>>> cases referenced in the Indiana site quote I copied into my
>>>>> post. That one day spike is an artifact created by not
>>>>> backdating a batch of historical cases received on June 2.
>>>>>
>>>>> Alan, I also gave you a link to the state data site. You can
>>>>> download the "COVID-19 STATEWIDE TEST, CASE, AND DEATH
>>>>> TRENDS" file from the supplied link and see for yourself but
>>>>> you won't do that. Do you think I can manipulate the data on
>>>>> that site? Just like you Liarboy to ignore clear evidence
>>>>> that you are wrong.
>>>>>
>>>>> You are way out of your league here. I look at the Indiana
>>>>> numbers every day. Do you?
>>>>>
>>>>> You can sure see why I looked at the bigger picture. It
>>>>> paints Canada in a very different light. Flawed as it was,
>>>>> the U.S. approach is paying recent dividends in higher
>>>>> induced + acquired immunity than Canada. I will not argue the
>>>>> point that it came at a high cost.
>>>>>
>>>>> You present Canada as a wonderful, egalitarian, society that
>>>>> takes care of its people. It's not always. Not that America
>>>>> is anywhere near perfect either, but:
>>>>> https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/out-of-sight-out-of-mind-2/
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>
US: Approx. 613,000 deaths or 1,840 deaths per million people.
>>>>
>>>> Canada: Approx. 27,000 deaths or 686 deaths per million.
>>>
>>> Did I not just say we paid a high cost for our approach to COVID?
>>> Can you comprehend that deaths is not the only metric to measure
>>> success?
>>>
>>> Go look at the Indiana case numbers as of June 9. The 7 day MA
>>> dropped from 439 on the 8th to 325 on the 9th. The 325 is
>>> consistent with the numbers over the last week. So I ask again,
>>> where is the post-500 race surge?
>> 'Federal guidelines advise that states wait until they experience
>> a downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period
>> before proceeding to a phased opening. In the state-specific view
>> of the graph, this two-week period is highlighted in orange if
>> cases are trending upward, or green if they are trending down.'
>>
>> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/indiana>
>>
>> What colour is highlighting, Liarboy.
>>>
>>> Then look at the deaths graph. See that recent trend. Is it up
>>> or down?
>>>
>> Deaths trail cases by quite a bit.
>
> Did you even look at the graph? Cases have been declining for months
> with a short uptick. As of June 30 all statewide restrictions will
> end.
>
> Don’t rely on secondary data. Go to the source.
> https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm
>
> Deaths do lag cases. Those are declining too, along with cases.
> Deaths are likely to not increase with declining cases. Indiana cases
> are the lowest since last spring and deaths the lowest since the very
> beginning of the pandemic.