> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within the population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
> Comparison charts, as of May31 are available:
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_cases_ppm_major.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_021.jpg
> Updated May31
>

> Israel, with >123% of vaccine doses applied to vaccinate 59% of
> the population, reports a daily virus detection rate below 10ppm
> and a 0.2ppm/day fatality rate. These figures have not altered
> significantly in the last 30 days - indicating the end of
> Pfizer's vaccination trial.

> The US, UK and Chile have all issued >95% of vaccine doses, with
> vaccination rates of 44%, 45% and 48% respectively. Detection
> and fatality rates, however, do not correlate:
> - The UK had achieved detection and fatality rates comparable to
> those of Israel, which benefits from 2x their vaccination levels,
> - The US has only achieved detection and fatalty rates comparable
> to the EEC, which benefits from < 1/2 of their vaccination levels.
> - Chile seems to have benefited only in that it's fatality rates
> are reduced from those of its unvaccinated neighbours, Peru and
> Argentina. Detection rates in Chile have risen consistently for
> the last 4 weeks.
>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

As of Jun 18:
US detections are at 101234ppm.(10.1%)
Detection rate is 37ppm/day and possibly leveling below 50ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1815ppm at 1.0ppm/day
FR is 1.8% from a 101054ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 1560ppm/day
2.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 941800ppm (94.2%) with 44.2% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 37461ppm (3.7%) ~ 208 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 30ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 689ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 37287ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1780ppm/day
1.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 818300ppm (81.8%) with 13.9% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 70288ppm. (7.0%)
Detection rate is 23ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2103ppm at 0.8ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 70156ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 2980ppm/day.
0.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 734900ppm (73.7%) with 24.8% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 107397ppm (10.7%)
Detection rate is 27ppm/day and possibly leveling below 60ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1443ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 107281ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 2210ppm/day.
1.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 663600ppm (66.4%) with 23.6% vaccinated.

UK detections at 68006ppm. (6.8%)
Detection rate is 121ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1888ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 2.8% from a 67273ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 13870ppm/day.
0.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1073700ppm (107.4%) with 45.2% vaccinated

Brazil detections at 83283ppm. (8.3%)
Detection rate is 330ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2323ppm at 9.4ppm/day.
FR is 2.9% from an 81371ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 395700ppm (39.6%) with 11.3% vaccinated.

Peru detections at 61256ppm (6.1%)
Detection rate is 106ppm/day and possibly leveling below 130ppm/day.
Fatalities are reported at 5740ppm at 8.3ppm/day.
FR is 9.5% from a 60599ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 175600ppm (17.6%) with 6.4% vaccinated

Chile detections at 78375ppm (7.8%)
Detection rate is 334ppm/day and possibly leveling below 370ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1618ppm at 6.4ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 73830ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 3420ppm/day.
9.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1091500ppm (109.2%) with 48.3% vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 93425ppm (9.3%)
Detection rate is 494ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1931ppm at 12.6ppm/day.
FR is 2.1% from a 90564ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 760ppm/day.
Test positivity values are impractical.
Vaccinations at 380000ppm (38.0%) with 7.9% vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 19139ppm (1.9%)
Detection rate is 24ppm/day and level below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1789ppm at 1.3ppm/day.
FR is 9.5% from a 18993ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 90ppm/day.
Test positivity values are impractical.
Vaccinations at 299600ppm (30.0%) with 12.1% vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 30115ppm (3.0%)
Detection rate is 154ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 982ppm at 2.2ppm/day.
FR is 3.4% from a 29171ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 820ppm/day.
18.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations are unreported (~3.0%) with 0.8% vaccinated.

Czech detections at 155539ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 13ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2825ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 155462ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 12600ppm/day.
0.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 655400ppm (65.5%) with 22.4% vaccinated.

India detections at 21567ppm (2.2%)
Detection rate is 51ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities at 277ppm at 2.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 21275ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1350ppm/day.
3.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 190600ppm (19.1%) with 3.5% vaccinated.

Israel detections at 97013ppm (9.7%)
Detection rate is 2ppm/day and leveling below 10ppm/day
Fatalities at 743ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 97008ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 2490ppm/day.
0.1% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 1229200ppm (123%) with 59.5% vaccinated.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million

RL

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within the population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
> Comparison charts, as of May31 are available:
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_cases_ppm_major.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_021.jpg
> Updated May31
>

> Israel, with >123% of vaccine doses applied to vaccinate 59% of
> the population, reports a daily virus detection rate below 10ppm
> and a 0.2ppm/day fatality rate. These figures have not altered
> significantly in the last 30 days - indicating the end of
> Pfizer's vaccination trial.

> The US, UK and Chile have all issued >95% of vaccine doses, with
> vaccination rates of 44%, 45% and 48% respectively. Detection
> and fatality rates, however, do not correlate:
> - The UK had achieved detection and fatality rates comparable to
> those of Israel, which benefits from 2x their vaccination levels,
> - The US has only achieved detection and fatalty rates comparable
> to the EEC, which benefits from < 1/2 of their vaccination levels.
> - Chile seems to have benefited only in that it's fatality rates
> are reduced from those of its unvaccinated neighbours, Peru and
> Argentina. Detection rates in Chile have risen consistently for
> the last 4 weeks.
>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

As of Jun 21:
US detections are at 101334ppm.(10.1%)
Detection rate is 34ppm/day and possibly leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1818ppm at 0.9ppm/day
FR is 1.8% from a 101093ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 1820ppm/day
1.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 950700ppm (95.1%) with 44.8% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 37523ppm (3.8%) ~ 210 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 25ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 690ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 37345ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1790ppm/day
1.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 852900ppm (85.3%) with 18.8% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 70342ppm. (7.0%)
Detection rate is 19ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2105ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 70207ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 2980ppm/day.
0.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 761100ppm (76.1%) with 26.1% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections are unreported (10.7%)
Detection rate is 17ppm/day and possibly leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1443ppm at 0.0ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 107281ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 666500ppm (66.7%) with 23.9% vaccinated.

UK detections at 68439ppm. (6.8%)
Detection rate is 135ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1889ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 2.8% from a 67492ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 13920ppm/day.
1.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1098600ppm (109.9%) with 46.3% vaccinated

Brazil detections at 84344ppm. (8.4%)
Detection rate is 346ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2361ppm at 9.7ppm/day.
FR is 2.9% from an 81920ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 409100ppm (40.9%) with 11.4% vaccinated.

Peru detections at 61468ppm (6.1%)
Detection rate is 100ppm/day and possibly leveling below 120ppm/day.
Fatalities are 5769ppm at 6.5ppm/day.
FR is 9.5% from a 60768ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 186100ppm (18.6%) with 7.2% vaccinated

Chile detections at 79358ppm (7.9%)
Detection rate is 303ppm/day and possibly leveling below 340ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1649ppm at 6.0ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 74699ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 3420ppm/day.
8.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1118700ppm (111.9%) with 49.8% vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 94451ppm (9.4%)
Detection rate is 457ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1970ppm at 11.7ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 91252ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 400200ppm (40.0%) with 8.2% vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 19214ppm (1.9%)
Detection rate is 26ppm/day and level below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1793ppm at 1.2ppm/day.
FR is 9.4% from a 19035ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 80ppm/day.
Test positivity values are impractical.
Vaccinations at 310500ppm (31.1%) with 12.8% vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 30743ppm (3.1%)
Detection rate is 184ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 990ppm at 2.3ppm/day.
FR is 3.4% from a 29457ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 820ppm/day.
22.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 36100ppm (3.6%) with 0.8% vaccinated.

Czech detections at 155573ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 12ppm/day and possibly leveling below 20ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2828ppm at 0.7ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 155486ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 12600ppm/day.
0.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 675100ppm (67.5%) with 23.6% vaccinated.

India detections at 21692ppm (2.2%)
Detection rate is 44ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities at 281ppm at 1.4ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 21384ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1350ppm/day.
3.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 198800ppm (19.9%) with 3.6% vaccinated.

Israel detections at 97032ppm (9.7%)
Detection rate is 3ppm/day and leveling below 10ppm/day
Fatalities at 743ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 97009ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 2490ppm/day.
0.1% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 1229900ppm (123%) with 59.5% vaccinated.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million

RL

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within the population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
> Comparison charts, as of May31 are available:
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_cases_ppm_major.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210531_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_021.jpg
> Updated May31
>

> Israel, with >123% of vaccine doses applied to vaccinate 59% of
> the population, reports a daily virus detection rate below 10ppm
> and a 0.2ppm/day fatality rate. These figures have not altered
> significantly in the last 30 days - indicating the end of
> Pfizer's vaccination trial.

> The US, UK and Chile have all issued >95% of vaccine doses, with
> vaccination rates of 44%, 45% and 48% respectively. Detection
> and fatality rates, however, do not correlate:
<snip>
>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

As of Jun 28:
US detections are at 101585ppm.(10.1%)
Detection rate is 36ppm/day and possibly leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1825ppm at 0.9ppm/day
FR is 1.8% from a 101334ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 1420ppm/day
2.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 966800ppm (96.7%) with 45.3% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 37640ppm (3.8%) ~ 216 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 18ppm/day and possibly leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 694ppm at 0.5ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 37523ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1670ppm/day
1.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 940500ppm (94.1%) with 26.4% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 70426ppm. (7.0%)
Detection rate is 12ppm/day and possibly leveling below 25ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2108ppm at 0.5ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 70342ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 3020ppm/day.
0.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 825200ppm (82.5%) with 29.4% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 107819ppm (10.8%)
Detection rate is 60ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1448ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 107397ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 2150ppm/day.
2.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 715800ppm (71.6%) with 27.0% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 69950ppm. (7.0%)
Detection rate is 204ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1881ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 2.7% from a 68439ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 14910ppm/day.
1.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1130900ppm (113.1%) with 47.8% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 86661ppm. (8.7%)
Detection rate is 338ppm/day and possibly leveling below 350ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2416ppm at 7.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.9% from an 84344ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 455400ppm (45.5%) with 12.0% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 62055ppm (6.2%)
Detection rate is 87ppm/day and possibly leveling below 110ppm/day.
Fatalities are 5811ppm at 6.0ppm/day.
FR is 9.5% from a 61468pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 215200ppm (21.5%) with 8.8% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 80931ppm (8.1%)
Detection rate is 230ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1690ppm at 5.9ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 77237ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2860ppm/day.
8.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 11767700ppm (117.7%) with 54.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 97470ppm (9.7%)
Detection rate is 426ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2048ppm at 11.1ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 94451ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 700ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 437000ppm (43.7%) with 8.7% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 19435ppm (1.9%)
Detection rate is 35ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1804ppm at 1.5ppm/day.
FR is 9.4% from a 19214ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 90ppm/day.
Test positivity values are impractical.
Vaccinations at 339400ppm (33.9%) with 14.6% vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 45200ppm (4.5%)
Detection rate is 250ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1010ppm at 2.9ppm/day.
FR is 3.3% from a 30743ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 930ppm/day.
26.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 45200ppm (4.5%) with 0.8% vaccinated.

Czech detections at 155653ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 11ppm/day and leveling below 20ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2829ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 155573ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 11380ppm/day.
0.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 736900ppm (73.7%) with 28.2% vaccinated.

India detections at 21941ppm (2.2%)
Detection rate is 36ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities at 287ppm at 0.9ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 21692ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1350ppm/day.
2.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 230500ppm (23.1%) with 4.0% vaccinated.

Israel detections at 97150ppm (9.7%)
Detection rate is 16ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 743ppm at 0.0ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 97032ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 4340ppm/day.
0.4% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 1236400ppm (124%) with 59.6% vaccinated.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million

RL

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.
>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
Comparison charts, as of Jun 30 are available:
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.
http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_022.jpg
Updated Jun 30
>

The US, UK and Chile have all issued >=~100% of vaccine doses, with
vaccination rates of 47%, 49.5% and 55.9% respectively.

This corresponds roughly to the vaccination rate recorded for the
Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 100 days
previously.

Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
neighbours.

>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

As of Jul 05:
US detections are at 101865ppm.(10.2%)
Detection rate is 40ppm/day and possibly leveling below 50ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1829ppm at 0.7ppm/day
FR is 1.8% from a 101585ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 1350ppm/day
3.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 988500ppm (98.9%) with 47.0% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 37739ppm (3.8%) ~ 224 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 14ppm/day and possibly leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 697ppm at 0.5ppm/day.
FR is 1.9% from a 37640ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1600ppm/day
0.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1035900ppm (103.6%) with 35.0% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 70513ppm. (7.1%)
Detection rate is 12ppm/day and possibly leveling below 25ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2108ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 70426ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 2820ppm/day.
0.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 886500ppm (88.7%) with 33.2% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 108016ppm (10.8%)
Detection rate is 28ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1449ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 107819ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 1500ppm/day.
1.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 808800ppm (80.9%) with 31.4% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 72477ppm. (7.2%)
Detection rate is 361ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1893ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 2.7% from a 69950ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 15820ppm/day.
2.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1162100ppm (116.2%) with 49.5% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 88304ppm. (8.8%)
Detection rate is 235ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2467ppm at 7.4ppm/day.
FR is 2.8% from an 86661ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 495400ppm (49.5%) with 13.0% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 62633ppm (6.3%)
Detection rate is 83ppm/day and possibly leveling below 100ppm/day.
Fatalities are 5860ppm at 7.1ppm/day.
FR is 9.4% from a 62055pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 238600ppm (23.9%) with 9.9% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 82118ppm (8.2%)
Detection rate is 170ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1732ppm at 6.0ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 79358ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2710ppm/day.
6.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1200000ppm (120.0%) with 55.9% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 100353ppm (10.0%)
Detection rate is 412ppm/day and leveling below 440ppm.
Fatalities are 2122ppm at 10.5ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 97470ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 490800ppm (49.1%) with 9.7% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 19701ppm (2.0%)
Detection rate is 38ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1812ppm at 1.2ppm/day.
FR is 9.3% from a 19435ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 100ppm/day.
Test positivity values are impractical.
Vaccinations at 366100ppm (36.6%) with 15.4% vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 34782ppm (3.5%)
Detection rate is 323ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1043ppm at 4.7ppm/day.
FR is 3.2% from a 32523ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 1040ppm/day.
31.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 55900ppm (5.6%) with 0.8% vaccinated.

Czech detections at 155751ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 14ppm/day and leveling below 20ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2830ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 155653ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 11080ppm/day.
0.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 793800ppm (79.4%) with 32.5% vaccinated.

India detections at 22164ppm (2.2%)
Detection rate is 32ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities at 292ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 21941ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1350ppm/day.
2.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 231700ppm (23.2%) with 4.6% vaccinated.

Israel detections at 97381ppm (9.7%)
Detection rate is 34ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 743ppm at 0.0ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 97150ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 6080ppm/day.
0.6% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 1250500ppm (125.1%) with 59.8% vaccinated.

> Israel, with >123% of vaccine doses applied to vaccinate 59% of
> the population, reports a daily virus detection rate below 10ppm
> and a 0.2ppm/day fatality rate. These figures have not altered
> significantly in the last 30 days - indicating the end of
> Pfizer's vaccination trial.
>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

RL

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.
>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
Comparison charts, as of Jun 30 are available:
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_022.jpg
> Updated Jun 30
>

The US, UK and Chile have all issued >=~100% of vaccine doses, with
vaccination rates of 48%, 51% and 59% respectively.

This corresponds roughly to the vaccination rate recorded for the
Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 100 days
previously.

Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
neighbours.

The UK and S.Africa both exhibit increasing detection rates
after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).

Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.

>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

As of Jul 11:
US detections are at 102277ppm.(10.2%)
Detection rate is 59ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1854ppm at 3ppm/day
(25ppm rise in 7 days - JH reports 0.3ppm)
FR is 1.8% from a 101865ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 1550ppm/day
3.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 999100ppm (99.9%) with 47.6% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 37834ppm (3.8%) ~ 234 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 14ppm/day and possibly leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 697ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
(2ppm rise in 7 days - JH reports 0.3ppm)
FR is 1.8% from a 37739ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1560ppm/day
0.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1126300ppm (112.6%) with 43.2% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 70644ppm. (7.1%)
Detection rate is 19ppm/day and possibly leveling below 25ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2108ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 70513ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 2860ppm/day.
0.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 952900ppm (95.3%) with 38.1% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 108180ppm (10.8%)
Detection rate is 23ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1450ppm at 0.1ppm/day. (JH - 0.2ppm/day)
FR is 1.3% from a 108016ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 1490ppm/day.
1.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 899700ppm (90.0%) with 35.3% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 75702ppm. (7.6%)
Detection rate is 461ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1896ppm at 0.4ppm/day. (JH - 0.3ppm/day)
FR is 2.6% from a 72477ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 16230ppm/day.
2.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1188000ppm (118.9%) with 51.2% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 89810ppm. (9.0%)
Detection rate is 215ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2510ppm at 6.1ppm/day ( JH - 7.4ppm/day).
FR is 2.8% from an 88304ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 538500ppm (53.9%) with 14.4% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 63108ppm (6.3%)
Detection rate is 63ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 5896ppm at 7.1ppm/day.
FR is 9.5% from a 62055pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 270900ppm (27.1%) with 10.8% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 83044ppm (8.3%)
Detection rate is 132ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1772ppm at 5.7ppm/day ( JH - 6.0ppm/day).
FR is 2.2% from a 82266ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2660ppm/day.
5.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1258300ppm (125.8%) with 59.2% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 102840ppm (10.3%)
Detection rate is 355ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2186ppm at 9.1ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 100353ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 710ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 544700ppm (54.5%) with 11.4% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 20092ppm (2.0%)
Detection rate is 56ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1822ppm at 1.4ppm/day ( JH - 1.5ppm/day).
FR is 9.2% from a 19701ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 130ppm/day.
Test positivity values are impractical.
Vaccinations at 393200ppm (39.3%) with 16.1% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 37020ppm (3.7%)
Detection rate is 320ppm/day and possibly leveling below 340ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1084ppm at 5.9ppm/day.
FR is 3.1% from a 34782ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 1160ppm/day.
27.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 71400ppm (7.1%) with 2.3% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 155883ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 19ppm/day and leveling below 20ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2832ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 155751ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 6810ppm/day.
0.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 837300ppm (83.7%) with 35.8% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 22373ppm (2.2%)
Detection rate is 30ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities at 296ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 22164ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1450ppm/day.
2.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 273400ppm (27.3%) with 5.3% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 97756ppm (9.8%)
Detection rate is 52ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 744ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 97381ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 7390ppm/day.
0.7% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 1262000ppm (126.2%) with 60.0% vaccinated.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

RL

On 12/07/2021 19:47, legg wrote:

> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.

More like a terrified population staying out of harms way.

I wouldn't like to bet on that. UK data shows that the delta variant is
marginally more dangerous to those it infects when you correct for age.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-new-data-from-phe-on-the-b-1-617-2-delta-variant/

See Prof Balloux contribution about the third one down.
It is now a month old and "freedom day" was moved back to 19/7.

Chancer Javid is going for it. The only question now is just how high
will Covid delta infections go in the UK before they throw in the towel
and lockdown again after following the irreversible path to freedom?

I would quite like to see the contingency tables for deaths and serious
life threatening illness against 0, 1 or 2 jabs (and by vaccine).

I have a feeling that my AZ double vaccination is significantly inferior
to Pfizer but I would like to see the raw data so that I could be sure.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Mon, 12 Jul 2021 14:47:13 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

<snip>
>As of Jul 11:
>
>US detections are at 102277ppm.(10.2%)
>Detection rate is 59ppm/day and rising.
>Fatalities are 1854ppm at 3ppm/day
>(25ppm rise in 7 days - JH reports 0.3ppm)

Fatalities should read 1834ppm

JH makes fewer mistakes than I do . . .

RL

On Mon, 12 Jul 2021 20:15:00 +0100, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

>On 12/07/2021 19:47, legg wrote:
>
>> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
>> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
>
>More like a terrified population staying out of harms way.
>
>I wouldn't like to bet on that. UK data shows that the delta variant is
>marginally more dangerous to those it infects when you correct for age.
>
>https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-new-data-from-phe-on-the-b-1-617-2-delta-variant/
>
>See Prof Balloux contribution about the third one down.
>It is now a month old and "freedom day" was moved back to 19/7.
>
>Chancer Javid is going for it. The only question now is just how high
>will Covid delta infections go in the UK before they throw in the towel
>and lockdown again after following the irreversible path to freedom?
>
>I would quite like to see the contingency tables for deaths and serious
>life threatening illness against 0, 1 or 2 jabs (and by vaccine).
>
>I have a feeling that my AZ double vaccination is significantly inferior
>to Pfizer but I would like to see the raw data so that I could be sure.

From the Chilean experience, Sinovac is having trouble doing the job,
but there's nothing indicating that AZ is ineffective in any way.

RL

On 13/07/2021 01:49, legg wrote:
> On Mon, 12 Jul 2021 20:15:00 +0100, Martin Brown
> <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>
>> On 12/07/2021 19:47, legg wrote:
>>
>>> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
>>> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
>>
>> More like a terrified population staying out of harms way.
>>
>> I wouldn't like to bet on that. UK data shows that the delta variant is
>> marginally more dangerous to those it infects when you correct for age.
>>
>> https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-new-data-from-phe-on-the-b-1-617-2-delta-variant/
>>
>> See Prof Balloux contribution about the third one down.
>> It is now a month old and "freedom day" was moved back to 19/7.
>>
>> Chancer Javid is going for it. The only question now is just how high
>> will Covid delta infections go in the UK before they throw in the towel
>> and lockdown again after following the irreversible path to freedom?
>>
>> I would quite like to see the contingency tables for deaths and serious
>> life threatening illness against 0, 1 or 2 jabs (and by vaccine).
>>
>> I have a feeling that my AZ double vaccination is significantly inferior
>> to Pfizer but I would like to see the raw data so that I could be sure.
>
> From the Chilean experience, Sinovac is having trouble doing the job,
> but there's nothing indicating that AZ is ineffective in any way.

Pfizer is 90% effective at 1 jab and 95%(overstated?) at 2 jabs.
AZ is around 70% at 1 jab and about 82% at 2 jabs.

<https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-confirms-protection-against-severe-disease-hospitalisation-and-death-in-the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html>

They each almost entirely prevent serious illness and death but your
chances of not catching it at all are better with the Pfizer vaccine.

Basically by about a factor of two for the individual.

Against the delta variant they are each slightly less effective than
against the strain they were developed for but still give ~66%.

There is now a delta+ variant. Unclear as yet what its properties are.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On 12/07/21 20:15, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 12/07/2021 19:47, legg wrote:
>
>>   Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
>>   seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
>
> More like a terrified population staying out of harms way.
>
> I wouldn't like to bet on that. UK data shows that the delta variant is
> marginally more dangerous to those it infects when you correct for age.
>
> https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-new-data-from-phe-on-the-b-1-617-2-delta-variant/
>
>
> See Prof Balloux contribution about the third one down.
> It is now a month old and "freedom day" was moved back to 19/7.
>
> Chancer Javid is going for it. The only question now is just how high will Covid
> delta infections go in the UK before they throw in the towel and lockdown again
> after following the irreversible path to freedom?

There's certainly libertarian political pressure to "become
free again", as evidenced by
- July 19th being called "freedom day", ludicrously and irresponsibly
- political rehtoric about people being free to behave responsibly
The latter is somewhat called into doubt by the famous picture
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/07/12/12/45346445-9779853-image-a-92_1626090544447.jpg

But I wonder how whether that is the only significant pressure.
Another pressure could well be the effect of our future ability
to finance the national debt, especially when the full effects
of brexit have been realised.

For the tin hat brigade, there's always the possibility that
covid is providing a useful distraction from the problems
currently being caused by brexit, e.g. depleted shelves in
supermarkets.

> I would quite like to see the contingency tables for deaths and serious life
> threatening illness against 0, 1 or 2 jabs (and by vaccine).
>
> I have a feeling that my AZ double vaccination is significantly inferior to
> Pfizer but I would like to see the raw data so that I could be sure.

I hope my booster vaccination will be with a different vaccine,
for that kind of possibility. However I'm not going to worry
about it.

Given covid infection rates in the nearby city are back to
running at 500-1000/100k/day, I'm also considering only going
to stores when there are fewer people around; that's not a
major issue for me.

On 7/13/2021 2:58 AM, Tom Gardner wrote:
>> I have a feeling that my AZ double vaccination is significantly inferior to
>> Pfizer but I would like to see the raw data so that I could be sure.
>
> I hope my booster vaccination will be with a different vaccine,
> for that kind of possibility. However I'm not going to worry
> about it.

Conceivably, we could have chosen between Moderna & Pfizer (the only
two available at the time we were vaccinated). But, we just opted
to get whatever was being dispensed, at the site we visited, when
we visited.

My other half ended up with Pfizer; I with Moderna. <shrug> No
idea if either of us "got the better deal". And, until ALL of
the variants have been evaluated against each, there's likely no
way to know for sure!

> Given covid infection rates in the nearby city are back to
> running at 500-1000/100k/day, I'm also considering only going
> to stores when there are fewer people around; that's not a
> major issue for me.

Pre-pandemic, our weekly "shopping trip" was ~2 hours. Much
of this was travel time (we'd typically make *10* stops along
the way -- fuel purchase, post office, library, art supplies,
etc.). So, maybe 70-80 minutes in stores.

That's now changed (primarily because I do the shopping by myself
and I'm *much* quicker at it!) to probably three 10-15 minute
excursions, weekly. Instead of visiting multiple outlets in
one trip, visit one outlet in each trip and double the quantities
(so no need to visit the same store again NEXT week).

One significant difference in shopping patterns is *just* buying
what's on The List; if they don't have it, don't go looking for
an alternative/substitute!

[We typed up a list of every item that we normally purchase.
And, the names of the stores we normally visit. (this fits
on a single sheet of paper) We circle the name of the store
and the items we want FROM that store and make a sheet for
each store we're likely to visit in the next few weeks. So,
there is no decision making happening IN the store(s). I've
been amused, earlier in the pandemic, to see people standing
in aisles of EMPTY shelves *thinking*! "What's to think about?
THERE'S NOTHING THERE!! Move along!"]

Sadly, few stores open 24 hours so I have to adjust my schedule
to be awake during "normal store hours" <frown>

On Tue, 13 Jul 2021 09:01:37 +0100, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

<snip>
>> From the Chilean experience, Sinovac is having trouble doing the job,
>> but there's nothing indicating that AZ is ineffective in any way.
>
>Pfizer is 90% effective at 1 jab and 95%(overstated?) at 2 jabs.
>AZ is around 70% at 1 jab and about 82% at 2 jabs.
>
><https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-confirms-protection-against-severe-disease-hospitalisation-and-death-in-the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html>
>
>They each almost entirely prevent serious illness and death but your
>chances of not catching it at all are better with the Pfizer vaccine.
>
>Basically by about a factor of two for the individual.
>
>Against the delta variant they are each slightly less effective than
>against the strain they were developed for but still give ~66%.
>
>There is now a delta+ variant. Unclear as yet what its properties are.

Effectiveness - when used as directed. They've been running
pretty fast and loose in Canada when it comes to jab timing
and mixing vaccines.

I'm not sure this matters, but a resurgence in detections
and fatalities in long-term heathcare facilities in Southern
Ontario seems to suggest simple incompetence in application.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/long-term-care-outbreaks-waterloo-region-1.6095441

tiny.cc/oo8auz

Note that this is from June 09 2021.

I've seen no follow-up in the press - just puff pieces about vaccine
penetration and 'opening up'.

RL

On 13/07/2021 14:55, legg wrote:
> On Tue, 13 Jul 2021 09:01:37 +0100, Martin Brown
> <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>
> <snip>
>>> From the Chilean experience, Sinovac is having trouble doing the job,
>>> but there's nothing indicating that AZ is ineffective in any way.
>>
>> Pfizer is 90% effective at 1 jab and 95%(overstated?) at 2 jabs.
>> AZ is around 70% at 1 jab and about 82% at 2 jabs.
>>
>> <https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-confirms-protection-against-severe-disease-hospitalisation-and-death-in-the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html>
>>
>> They each almost entirely prevent serious illness and death but your
>> chances of not catching it at all are better with the Pfizer vaccine.
>>
>> Basically by about a factor of two for the individual.
>>
>> Against the delta variant they are each slightly less effective than
>> against the strain they were developed for but still give ~66%.
>>
>> There is now a delta+ variant. Unclear as yet what its properties are.
>
> Effectiveness - when used as directed. They've been running
> pretty fast and loose in Canada when it comes to jab timing
> and mixing vaccines.

UK has been doing some experiments on this. Jab timing so long as the
second dose is at least 2 weeks after the first one is OK. But the
immune response is higher quality the longer the interval out to at
least 12 weeks. Default rule here is 8 weeks gap (not 21 days as on the
label). Changing to a shorter interval is now a hot topic since Covid
infection rates here are through the roof. Not far from me 1800/100k.

All combinations of the licensed vaccines seem to work OK.

Some medics I know who took part in the Novavax trial last November are
stuck in limbo since they were in the real vaccine side when unblinded
but the vaccine has still not yet been licensed. Accordingly they are
being treated by the NHS as vaccine refuseniks (despite advice being
that they are vaccinated correctly just not with a recognised vaccine).

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/21/novavax-volunteers-in-uk-threaten-to-quit-over-approval-delays

They have been advised by the vaccine trial organisers not to have
scheduled jabs of AZ or Pfizer in addition so they are in a bind.
>
> I'm not sure this matters, but a resurgence in detections
> and fatalities in long-term heathcare facilities in Southern
> Ontario seems to suggest simple incompetence in application.
>
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/long-term-care-outbreaks-waterloo-region-1.6095441
>
> tiny.cc/oo8auz
>
> Note that this is from June 09 2021.

I'm amazed that there are *any* elderly residents in Canada who haven't
been vaccinated (apart from a minority who are immunosuppressed).
>
> I've seen no follow-up in the press - just puff pieces about vaccine
> penetration and 'opening up'.

You will be able to see how that pans out by watching the UK and
Netherlands (they have just shut down nightclubs again after a serious
superspreading MFU).

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/netherlands-reopened-nightclubs-and-there-was-a-huge-spike-in-covid-cases/ar-AAM5fJ9?ocid=uxbndlbing

Britain is about to make the same mistake in a weeks time :(

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Tue, 13 Jul 2021 09:55:41 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

>On Tue, 13 Jul 2021 09:01:37 +0100, Martin Brown
><'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>
><snip>
>>> From the Chilean experience, Sinovac is having trouble doing the job,
>>> but there's nothing indicating that AZ is ineffective in any way.
>>
>>Pfizer is 90% effective at 1 jab and 95%(overstated?) at 2 jabs.
>>AZ is around 70% at 1 jab and about 82% at 2 jabs.
>>
>><https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-confirms-protection-against-severe-disease-hospitalisation-and-death-in-the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html>
>>
>>They each almost entirely prevent serious illness and death but your
>>chances of not catching it at all are better with the Pfizer vaccine.
>>
>>Basically by about a factor of two for the individual.
>>
>>Against the delta variant they are each slightly less effective than
>>against the strain they were developed for but still give ~66%.
>>
>>There is now a delta+ variant. Unclear as yet what its properties are.
>
>Effectiveness - when used as directed. They've been running
>pretty fast and loose in Canada when it comes to jab timing
>and mixing vaccines.

I don't know if those decisions were 'wrong' in the context of what
vaccines were available at the time and what new information has come
to light (eg. AstraZenica issues).

IMHO, the Feds should have thrown a lot more money at the supply issue
early, like Israel did, and just outbid other countries, but once it
gets to the provincial level they have to make do with what shows up.

>I'm not sure this matters, but a resurgence in detections
>and fatalities in long-term heathcare facilities in Southern
>Ontario seems to suggest simple incompetence in application.
>
>https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/long-term-care-outbreaks-waterloo-region-1.6095441
>
>tiny.cc/oo8auz
>
>Note that this is from June 09 2021.
>
>I've seen no follow-up in the press - just puff pieces about vaccine
>penetration and 'opening up'.
>
>RL

About fatalities- here's the daily numbers from LTC facilities in all
of Ontario starting June 24 to today:

0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 -1 2 0 -1 2

9 fatalities total over 18 days. The last 7 days are in line with
that, as are the first 7.

To put that in perspective they say 3,976 total LTC residents have
died of Covid over something like 16 months. The first peak was around
April 25 2020 and they were not breaking out the daily LTC numbers at
that point.

--
Best regards,
Spehro Pefhany

On Tue, 13 Jul 2021 09:55:41 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

>On Tue, 13 Jul 2021 09:01:37 +0100, Martin Brown
><'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>
><snip>
>>> From the Chilean experience, Sinovac is having trouble doing the job,
>>> but there's nothing indicating that AZ is ineffective in any way.
>>
>>Pfizer is 90% effective at 1 jab and 95%(overstated?) at 2 jabs.
>>AZ is around 70% at 1 jab and about 82% at 2 jabs.
>>
>><https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-confirms-protection-against-severe-disease-hospitalisation-and-death-in-the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html>
>>
>>They each almost entirely prevent serious illness and death but your
>>chances of not catching it at all are better with the Pfizer vaccine.
>>
>>Basically by about a factor of two for the individual.
>>
>>Against the delta variant they are each slightly less effective than
>>against the strain they were developed for but still give ~66%.
>>
>>There is now a delta+ variant. Unclear as yet what its properties are.
>
>Effectiveness - when used as directed. They've been running
>pretty fast and loose in Canada when it comes to jab timing
>and mixing vaccines.
>
>I'm not sure this matters, but a resurgence in detections
>and fatalities in long-term heathcare facilities in Southern
>Ontario seems to suggest simple incompetence in application.
>
>https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/long-term-care-outbreaks-waterloo-region-1.6095441
>
>tiny.cc/oo8auz
>
>Note that this is from June 09 2021.

My error Jul709 2021
>
>I've seen no follow-up in the press - just puff pieces about vaccine
>penetration and 'opening up'.
>
>RL

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.
>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
> Comparison charts, as of Jun 30 are available:
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_022.jpg
> Updated Jun 30
>

The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
49.2% and 43% respectively.

This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
previously.

Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
neighbours.

The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).

Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

As of Jul 19:
US detections are at 102960ppm.(10.3%)
Detection rate is 98ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1840ppm at 0.8ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 102277ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 1470ppm/day
6.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1009900ppm (101.0%) with 48.1% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 37908ppm (3.8%) ~ 241 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 10ppm/day and possibly leveling below 20ppm/day.
Fatalities are 701ppm at 0.5ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 37834ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1760ppm/day
0.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1199000ppm (120.0%) with 49.2% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 70912ppm. (7.1%)
Detection rate is 38ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2115ppm at 1.0ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 70644ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 2870ppm/day.
1.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1017900ppm (101.8%) with 43.0% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 108358ppm (10.8%)
Detection rate is 25ppm/day and possibly leveling below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1450ppm at 0.0ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 108180ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 1130ppm/day.
2.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 955300ppm (95.5%) with 37.2% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 80359ppm. (8.0%)
Detection rate is 665ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1900ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 2.5% from a 75702ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 16080ppm/day.
4.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1211800ppm (121.1%) with 53.0% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 91158ppm. (9.1%)
Detection rate is 193ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2546ppm at 5.9ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 89810ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 583900ppm (58.4%) with 15.9% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 63452ppm (6.3%)
Detection rate is 49ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 5916ppm at 2.9ppm/day.
FR is 9.4% from a 63108pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 306200ppm (30.6%) with 11.5% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 93692ppm (9.4%)
Detection rate is 93ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1800ppm at 4.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 83044ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2680ppm/day.
3.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1293600ppm (129.4%) with 61.3% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 105239ppm (10.5%)
Detection rate is 342ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2244ppm at 8.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 102840ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 601800ppm (60.2%) with 11.7% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 20624ppm (2.1%)
Detection rate is 76ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1832ppm at 1.5ppm/day.
FR is 9.1% from a 20092ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 170ppm/day.
Test positivity values are impractical.
Vaccinations at 421000ppm (42.1%) with 16.8% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 38697ppm (3.9%)
Detection rate is 240ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1142ppm at 6.2ppm/day.
FR is 3.1% from a 37020ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 980ppm/day.
24.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 85100ppm (8.5%) with 2.8% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156040ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 22ppm/day and leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2833ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 155883ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 8690ppm/day.
0.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 888800ppm (88.9%) with 39.3% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 22568ppm (2.3%)
Detection rate is 28ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities at 300ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 22373ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1450ppm/day.
1.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 293400ppm (28.3%) with 6.0% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 98402ppm (9.8%)
Detection rate is 92ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 745ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 97756ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 6450ppm/day.
1.4% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 1268400ppm (126.8%) with 60.4% vaccinated.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

RL

On 7/19/2021 11:18 AM, legg wrote:
> The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
> vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
> 49.2% and 43% respectively.
>
> This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
> the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
> previously.
>
> Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
> This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
> fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
> neighbours.
>
> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>
> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

We (county) are a bit over 50% (55?) fully vaccinated. Another
county nearby is at 70+%. Their infection rate presently exceeds
ours (and, both are headed north).

One has to wonder if Delta is just quickly mopping up the
remaining "unclean" or if there are more breakthrough
infections than expected!

mandag den 19. juli 2021 kl. 20.47.56 UTC+2 skrev Don Y:
> On 7/19/2021 11:18 AM, legg wrote:
> > The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
> > vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
> > 49.2% and 43% respectively.
> >
> > This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
> > the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
> > previously.
> >
> > Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
> > This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
> > fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
> > neighbours.
> >
> > The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> > after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> > an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> > S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> > possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
> >
> > Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> > seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> > Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.
> We (county) are a bit over 50% (55?) fully vaccinated. Another
> county nearby is at 70+%. Their infection rate presently exceeds
> ours (and, both are headed north).
>
> One has to wonder if Delta is just quickly mopping up the
> remaining "unclean" or if there are more breakthrough
> infections than expected!

here ~50% is fully and ~75% partially vaccinated, the detection
rates are rising but even the most pessimistic experts are not
concerned because hospitalization keeps dropping and is
basically in the noise compared to everything else
deaths are less than one per day in a population of ~5.6M

On 7/19/2021 11:59 AM, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
> mandag den 19. juli 2021 kl. 20.47.56 UTC+2 skrev Don Y:
>> On 7/19/2021 11:18 AM, legg wrote:
>>> The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
>>> vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
>>> 49.2% and 43% respectively.
>>>
>>> This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
>>> the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
>>> previously.
>>>
>>> Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
>>> This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
>>> fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
>>> neighbours.
>>>
>>> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
>>> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
>>> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
>>> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
>>> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>>>
>>> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
>>> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
>>> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.
>> We (county) are a bit over 50% (55?) fully vaccinated. Another
>> county nearby is at 70+%. Their infection rate presently exceeds
>> ours (and, both are headed north).
>>
>> One has to wonder if Delta is just quickly mopping up the
>> remaining "unclean" or if there are more breakthrough
>> infections than expected!
>
> here ~50% is fully and ~75% partially vaccinated, the detection
> rates are rising but even the most pessimistic experts are not
> concerned because hospitalization keeps dropping and is
> basically in the noise compared to everything else
> deaths are less than one per day in a population of ~5.6M

My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
*opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
(but not hospitalize)!

Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
(or smallpox, etc.)

On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
<blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:

<snip>
'Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.'

>>> We (county) are a bit over 50% (55?) fully vaccinated. Another
>>> county nearby is at 70+%. Their infection rate presently exceeds
>>> ours (and, both are headed north).
>>>
>>> One has to wonder if Delta is just quickly mopping up the
>>> remaining "unclean" or if there are more breakthrough
>>> infections than expected!
>>
>> here ~50% is fully and ~75% partially vaccinated, the detection
>> rates are rising but even the most pessimistic experts are not
>> concerned because hospitalization keeps dropping and is
>> basically in the noise compared to everything else
>> deaths are less than one per day in a population of ~5.6M
>
>My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
>One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
>*opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
>(but not hospitalize)!
>
>Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
>But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
>(or smallpox, etc.)

Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
be managing, though fatalities are higher than in sreas
where vaccination is heavy.

Is Delta a 'natural' vaccine? Fast but less deadly?
Or is this just heavy social mitigation?

RL

On Monday, July 19, 2021 at 9:07:48 PM UTC-7, legg wrote:
> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
> <blocked...@foo.invalid> wrote:
>
> <snip>
> 'Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.'
>
> >>> We (county) are a bit over 50% (55?) fully vaccinated. Another
> >>> county nearby is at 70+%. Their infection rate presently exceeds
> >>> ours (and, both are headed north).
> >>>
> >>> One has to wonder if Delta is just quickly mopping up the
> >>> remaining "unclean" or if there are more breakthrough
> >>> infections than expected!
> >>
> >> here ~50% is fully and ~75% partially vaccinated, the detection
> >> rates are rising but even the most pessimistic experts are not
> >> concerned because hospitalization keeps dropping and is
> >> basically in the noise compared to everything else
> >> deaths are less than one per day in a population of ~5.6M
> >
> >My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
> >One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
> >*opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
> >(but not hospitalize)!
> >
> >Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
> >But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
> >(or smallpox, etc.)
> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in sreas
> where vaccination is heavy.
>
> Is Delta a 'natural' vaccine? Fast but less deadly?

Faster interfacing via ACE2 receptor.

> Or is this just heavy social mitigation?

Report of Delta (Combo D + D614G?) is greatly exaggerated. D614G is USA native.

We are seeing three-ways split of mutations: Combo B/C/D. E484E in Combo B is the classic invariant, which is coming back with the help of D614G. We saw fair amount of E484K & E484Q before; so, it's also possible that
E484K -> K484Q -> Q484E = E484E
USA______________417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_____A___B___C___D
2020/06____________0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__0.0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/07____________0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%__0.0%_99%__0%__0%
2020/08____________0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%__0.0%_99%__0%__0%
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_____________A=L452R+E484Q_B=E484E+D614G_C=E484Q+D614G_D=L452R+T478K+P681R

On Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:07:48 PM UTC+10, legg wrote:
> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
> <blocked...@foo.invalid> wrote:
>
> <snip>
> 'Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.'
>
> >>> We (county) are a bit over 50% (55?) fully vaccinated. Another
> >>> county nearby is at 70+%. Their infection rate presently exceeds
> >>> ours (and, both are headed north).
> >>>
> >>> One has to wonder if Delta is just quickly mopping up the
> >>> remaining "unclean" or if there are more breakthrough
> >>> infections than expected!
> >>
> >> here ~50% is fully and ~75% partially vaccinated, the detection
> >> rates are rising but even the most pessimistic experts are not
> >> concerned because hospitalization keeps dropping and is
> >> basically in the noise compared to everything else
> >> deaths are less than one per day in a population of ~5.6M
> >
> >My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
> >One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
> >*opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
> >(but not hospitalize)!
> >
> >Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
> >But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
> >(or smallpox, etc.)
>
> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in areas
> where vaccination is heavy.
>
> Is Delta a 'natural' vaccine? Fast but less deadly?

It does seem to be more infectious, but the current Australian outbreak which is all delta - is now killing people.

Australia has done better at vaccinating the elderly than the population as a whole, but the five people who died recently were elderly - the youngest was about fifty - and there are younger people on ventilators.

> Or is this just heavy social mitigation?

If you preferentially vaccinate the elderly, the younger people who still get sick are less likely to die.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 21:37:33 -0700 (PDT), Anthony William Sloman
<bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

>On Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:07:48 PM UTC+10, legg wrote:
>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>> <blocked...@foo.invalid> wrote:
>>
>> <snip>
>> 'Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
>> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
>> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.'
>>
>> >>> We (county) are a bit over 50% (55?) fully vaccinated. Another
>> >>> county nearby is at 70+%. Their infection rate presently exceeds
>> >>> ours (and, both are headed north).
>> >>>
>> >>> One has to wonder if Delta is just quickly mopping up the
>> >>> remaining "unclean" or if there are more breakthrough
>> >>> infections than expected!
>> >>
>> >> here ~50% is fully and ~75% partially vaccinated, the detection
>> >> rates are rising but even the most pessimistic experts are not
>> >> concerned because hospitalization keeps dropping and is
>> >> basically in the noise compared to everything else
>> >> deaths are less than one per day in a population of ~5.6M
>> >
>> >My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
>> >One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
>> >*opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
>> >(but not hospitalize)!
>> >
>> >Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
>> >But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
>> >(or smallpox, etc.)
>>
>> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
>> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in areas
>> where vaccination is heavy.
>>
>> Is Delta a 'natural' vaccine? Fast but less deadly?
>
>It does seem to be more infectious, but the current Australian outbreak which is all delta - is now killing people.
>
>Australia has done better at vaccinating the elderly than the population as a whole, but the five people who died recently were elderly - the youngest was about fifty - and there are younger people on ventilators.
>
>> Or is this just heavy social mitigation?
>
>If you preferentially vaccinate the elderly, the younger people who still get sick are less likely to die.

This doesn't address the S.African aand Indian trends.

If anything, vaccinations just confuse the issue.

RL

On Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 6:31:10 AM UTC-7, legg wrote:
> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 21:37:33 -0700 (PDT), Anthony William Sloman
> <bill....@ieee.org> wrote:
>
> >On Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:07:48 PM UTC+10, legg wrote:
> >> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
> >> <blocked...@foo.invalid> wrote:
> >>
> >> <snip>
> >> 'Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> >> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> >> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.'
> >>
> >> >>> We (county) are a bit over 50% (55?) fully vaccinated. Another
> >> >>> county nearby is at 70+%. Their infection rate presently exceeds
> >> >>> ours (and, both are headed north).
> >> >>>
> >> >>> One has to wonder if Delta is just quickly mopping up the
> >> >>> remaining "unclean" or if there are more breakthrough
> >> >>> infections than expected!
> >> >>
> >> >> here ~50% is fully and ~75% partially vaccinated, the detection
> >> >> rates are rising but even the most pessimistic experts are not
> >> >> concerned because hospitalization keeps dropping and is
> >> >> basically in the noise compared to everything else
> >> >> deaths are less than one per day in a population of ~5.6M
> >> >
> >> >My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
> >> >One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
> >> >*opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
> >> >(but not hospitalize)!
> >> >
> >> >Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
> >> >But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
> >> >(or smallpox, etc.)
> >>
> >> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
> >> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in areas
> >> where vaccination is heavy.
> >>
> >> Is Delta a 'natural' vaccine? Fast but less deadly?
> >
> >It does seem to be more infectious, but the current Australian outbreak which is all delta - is now killing people.
> >
> >Australia has done better at vaccinating the elderly than the population as a whole, but the five people who died recently were elderly - the youngest was about fifty - and there are younger people on ventilators.
> >
> >> Or is this just heavy social mitigation?
> >
> >If you preferentially vaccinate the elderly, the younger people who still get sick are less likely to die.
> This doesn't address the S.African aand Indian trends.
> If anything, vaccinations just confuse the issue.

Good thing to be confused.

One should still get the first shot (or even reduced dose) of mRNA, then Delta/Indian/UK/L452R or Lamda/S.Africa/E484Q would be good booster. Without the first training shot, it's taking a big risk for serious damage. With the real booster, the subject should create better fit antibody for the variants.

On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y

>> My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
>> One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
>> *opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
>> (but not hospitalize)!
>>
>> Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
>> But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
>> (or smallpox, etc.)
>
> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in sreas
> where vaccination is heavy.

You'd expect that. But, how do you define "managing"?
Is it because hospitals aren't (yet) overcrowded? Or,
fatalities (among a HEALTHIER, less prone to die)
aren't "headline grabbers"?

> Is Delta a 'natural' vaccine? Fast but less deadly?
> Or is this just heavy social mitigation?

A better way of putting the current situation in perspective
is to imagine if the fatality rate among the *current* infected
population was the same as it was when "olde fartes" were the
vicitims -- how acceptable would that death rate be?

(i.e., the *spread* is something we can see/measure. If
another variant became more deadly -- to THIS population -- would
we be as complacent?)