On Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 11:31:10 PM UTC+10, legg wrote:
> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 21:37:33 -0700 (PDT), Anthony William Sloman
> <bill....@ieee.org> wrote:
>
> >On Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:07:48 PM UTC+10, legg wrote:
> >> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
> >> <blocked...@foo.invalid> wrote:
<snip>

> >> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
> >> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in areas
> >> where vaccination is heavy.
> >>
> >> Is Delta a 'natural' vaccine? Fast but less deadly?
> >
> >It does seem to be more infectious, but the current Australian outbreak which is all delta - is now killing people.
> >
> >Australia has done better at vaccinating the elderly than the population as a whole, but the five people who died recently were elderly - the youngest was about fifty - and there are younger people on ventilators.
> >
> >> Or is this just heavy social mitigation?
> >
> >If you preferentially vaccinate the elderly, the younger people who still get sick are less likely to die.
>
> This doesn't address the S.African and Indian trends.

Why should it? I don't know much about them.

> If anything, vaccinations just confuse the issue.

It is an additional variable to be taken into account.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 12:40:23 AM UTC+10, Ed Lee wrote:
> On Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 6:31:10 AM UTC-7, legg wrote:
> > On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 21:37:33 -0700 (PDT), Anthony William Sloman <bill....@ieee.org> wrote:
> > >On Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:07:48 PM UTC+10, legg wrote:
> > >> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
> > >> <blocked...@foo.invalid> wrote:

<snip>

> > >It does seem to be more infectious, but the current Australian outbreak which is all delta - is now killing people.
> > >
> > >Australia has done better at vaccinating the elderly than the population as a whole, but the five people who died recently were elderly - the youngest was about fifty - and there are younger people on ventilators.
> > >
> > >> Or is this just heavy social mitigation?
> > >
> > >If you preferentially vaccinate the elderly, the younger people who still get sick are less likely to die.
> >
> > This doesn't address the S.African aand Indian trends.
> > If anything, vaccinations just confuse the issue.
>
> Good thing to be confused.

It's a good thing to get vaccinated. Being as confused about what it offers as Ed Lee is less good.

<snipped his ill-informed advice>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Tue, 20 Jul 2021 19:54:43 -0700, Don Y
<blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:

>On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>
>>> My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
>>> One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
>>> *opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
>>> (but not hospitalize)!
>>>
>>> Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
>>> But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
>>> (or smallpox, etc.)
>>
>> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
>> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in sreas
>> where vaccination is heavy.
>
>You'd expect that. But, how do you define "managing"?
>Is it because hospitals aren't (yet) overcrowded? Or,
>fatalities (among a HEALTHIER, less prone to die)
>aren't "headline grabbers"?
>
>> Is Delta a 'natural' vaccine? Fast but less deadly?
>> Or is this just heavy social mitigation?
>
>A better way of putting the current situation in perspective
>is to imagine if the fatality rate among the *current* infected
>population was the same as it was when "olde fartes" were the
>vicitims -- how acceptable would that death rate be?
>
>(i.e., the *spread* is something we can see/measure. If
>another variant became more deadly -- to THIS population -- would
>we be as complacent?)

Both Indian and S.African daily detections are falling. India
peaked in May, S.Africa peaked at the beginning of this month
despite demonstrations and rioting in KwaZulu-Natal.

Both surges had/have the typical 2-month period, characteristic
of social mitigation. Niether exhibited low fatality rates.

.. . . . I guess I just answered my own question.

RL

On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>
>>> My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
>>> One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
>>> *opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
>>> (but not hospitalize)!
>>>
>>> Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
>>> But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
>>> (or smallpox, etc.)
>>
>> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
>> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in sreas
>> where vaccination is heavy.
>
> You'd expect that.  But, how do you define "managing"?
> Is it because hospitals aren't (yet) overcrowded?  Or,
> fatalities (among a HEALTHIER, less prone to die)
> aren't "headline grabbers"?

The main effect of the vaccine is to reduce hospitalisations by a factor
of 4-6 depending on local demographics and fatalities by 10-20x.
Hospital admissions would have been a factor of 10 down if the Kent
variant was still the main player (but it is long gone here).

>> Is Delta a 'natural' vaccine? Fast but less deadly?
>> Or is this just heavy social mitigation?
>

Delta is about twice as likely to put people into hospital as the
previous Kent variant that it displaced in the UK. This has already
absorbed some of our spare health service capacity.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/five-things-we-know-about-delta-coronavirus-variant-and-two-things-we-still-need

It spreads much faster than all the other strains it displaced. It
masquerades as a cold at the outset which makes it very efficient at
transmission before the bad symptoms begin to take hold. Covid symptoms
list is being altered to reflect these new characteristics.

> A better way of putting the current situation in perspective
> is to imagine if the fatality rate among the *current* infected
> population was the same as it was when "olde fartes" were the
> vicitims -- how acceptable would that death rate be?
>
> (i.e., the *spread* is something we can see/measure.  If
> another variant became more deadly -- to THIS population -- would
> we be as complacent?)

The fact that older people are now mostly vaccinated in the UK apart
from a hardcore of refusenicks and people who cannot have the vaccine
because their immune systems are compromised in some way affects how the
virus can propagate in the population.

This will tend to select for vaccine evading strains as the massive
explosion of Covid in the young clubbers really takes off now. Until
last week it was really only out of control in schools and universities.
Soon it will be almost impossible to avoid in the community.

The Tokyo Olympics by bringing people together from all around the world
and allowing diverse strains to mix in a hot house environment stands a
good chance of being a real nuisance. Perhaps it should be named Olympic
Champion Covid to recognise the boneheaded decisions of the IOC to go
ahead in the face of opposition from almost the entire Japanese people.
(and many athletes who have declined to take part)

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On 7/21/2021 5:48 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
>> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
>>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>>
>>>> My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
>>>> One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
>>>> *opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
>>>> (but not hospitalize)!
>>>>
>>>> Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
>>>> But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
>>>> (or smallpox, etc.)
>>>
>>> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
>>> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in sreas
>>> where vaccination is heavy.
>>
>> You'd expect that. But, how do you define "managing"?
>> Is it because hospitals aren't (yet) overcrowded? Or,
>> fatalities (among a HEALTHIER, less prone to die)
>> aren't "headline grabbers"?
>
> The main effect of the vaccine is to reduce hospitalisations by a factor of 4-6
> depending on local demographics and fatalities by 10-20x. Hospital admissions
> would have been a factor of 10 down if the Kent variant was still the main
> player (but it is long gone here).

Yes, that's the *effect*. But, I would assume the GOAL was to reduce
*infections*. *That* seems to have been the emphasis for other vaccines.

>> A better way of putting the current situation in perspective
>> is to imagine if the fatality rate among the *current* infected
>> population was the same as it was when "olde fartes" were the
>> vicitims -- how acceptable would that death rate be?
>>
>> (i.e., the *spread* is something we can see/measure. If
>> another variant became more deadly -- to THIS population -- would
>> we be as complacent?)
>
> The fact that older people are now mostly vaccinated in the UK apart from a
> hardcore of refusenicks and people who cannot have the vaccine because their
> immune systems are compromised in some way affects how the virus can propagate
> in the population.

Of course! It either has to "do work" (mutate) to evade their new defenses
*or* find other hosts that are easier to infect "as is". (or, with lesser
"work" in mutation)

> This will tend to select for vaccine evading strains as the massive explosion
> of Covid in the young clubbers really takes off now. Until last week it was
> really only out of control in schools and universities. Soon it will be almost
> impossible to avoid in the community.
>
> The Tokyo Olympics by bringing people together from all around the world and
> allowing diverse strains to mix in a hot house environment stands a good chance
> of being a real nuisance. Perhaps it should be named Olympic Champion Covid to
> recognise the boneheaded decisions of the IOC to go ahead in the face of
> opposition from almost the entire Japanese people.
> (and many athletes who have declined to take part)

The IOC are bureaucrats. They know how their bread is buttered.
Like any other "business", they want to maintain the income stream.
And, like other businesses, they (personally) are largely unaffected
by the risk.

What will be interesting is if there is a lack of interest in the
events that the news media ("authorized sponsors") take as a
financial hit -- having previously PAID for exclusive rights to
coverage. If so, the value of "next year's" contract may suffer
significantly; the "brand" may take a hit.

On 22/07/2021 22:23, Don Y wrote:
> On 7/21/2021 5:48 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>> On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
>>> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
>>>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>>>
>>>>> My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
>>>>> One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
>>>>> *opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
>>>>> (but not hospitalize)!
>>>>>
>>>>> Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
>>>>> But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
>>>>> (or smallpox, etc.)
>>>>
>>>> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
>>>> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in sreas
>>>> where vaccination is heavy.
>>>
>>> You'd expect that.  But, how do you define "managing"?
>>> Is it because hospitals aren't (yet) overcrowded?  Or,
>>> fatalities (among a HEALTHIER, less prone to die)
>>> aren't "headline grabbers"?
>>
>> The main effect of the vaccine is to reduce hospitalisations by a
>> factor of 4-6 depending on local demographics and fatalities by
>> 10-20x. Hospital admissions would have been a factor of 10 down if the
>> Kent variant was still the main player (but it is long gone here).
>
> Yes, that's the *effect*.  But, I would assume the GOAL was to reduce
> *infections*.  *That* seems to have been the emphasis for other vaccines.

That isn't the UK government's game plan. They are going hell for
leather to maximise infections in the young using nightclubs as the
vehicle to facilitate transmission. It makes no sense at all.

Presently we have a national rate of 1.3% infected with Covid. It is
closer to 2% not very far from me (I don't go there).

>>> A better way of putting the current situation in perspective
>>> is to imagine if the fatality rate among the *current* infected
>>> population was the same as it was when "olde fartes" were the
>>> vicitims -- how acceptable would that death rate be?
>>>
>>> (i.e., the *spread* is something we can see/measure.  If
>>> another variant became more deadly -- to THIS population -- would
>>> we be as complacent?)
>>
>> The fact that older people are now mostly vaccinated in the UK apart
>> from a hardcore of refusenicks and people who cannot have the vaccine
>> because their immune systems are compromised in some way affects how
>> the virus can propagate in the population.
>
> Of course!  It either has to "do work" (mutate) to evade their new defenses
> *or* find other hosts that are easier to infect "as is".  (or, with lesser
> "work" in mutation)

Breakout is being observed. One of the Indi Sage presenters today has
recently had it and he was double vaccinated and a cautious scientist.
Sounded like he got a nasty bout too - enough to be worried that he
might have long Covid but did recover after a couple of weeks. He
described the fatigue as being very problematic afterwards.

>> This will tend to select for vaccine evading strains as the massive
>> explosion of Covid in the young clubbers really takes off now. Until
>> last week it was really only out of control in schools and
>> universities. Soon it will be almost impossible to avoid in the
>> community.
>>
>> The Tokyo Olympics by bringing people together from all around the
>> world and allowing diverse strains to mix in a hot house environment
>> stands a good chance of being a real nuisance. Perhaps it should be
>> named Olympic Champion Covid to recognise the boneheaded decisions of
>> the IOC to go ahead in the face of opposition from almost the entire
>> Japanese people.
>> (and many athletes who have declined to take part)
>
> The IOC are bureaucrats.  They know how their bread is buttered.
> Like any other "business", they want to maintain the income stream.
> And, like other businesses, they (personally) are largely unaffected
> by the risk.
>
> What will be interesting is if there is a lack of interest in the
> events that the news media ("authorized sponsors") take as a
> financial hit -- having previously PAID for exclusive rights to
> coverage.  If so, the value of "next year's" contract may suffer
> significantly; the "brand" may take a hit.

BBC is carrying it in the UK. I expect plenty of people will watch.
Apparently the stadium was so quiet during the opening ceremony that you
could hear the protesters outside chanting "no to the games".

End of the football craze seems to have slowed transmission momentarily
in the UK. Nightclub driven infections should show up next week.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On 24/07/21 13:31, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 22/07/2021 22:23, Don Y wrote:
>> On 7/21/2021 5:48 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>>> On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
>>>> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
>>>>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>>>>
>>>>>> My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
>>>>>> One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
>>>>>> *opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
>>>>>> (but not hospitalize)!
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
>>>>>> But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
>>>>>> (or smallpox, etc.)
>>>>>
>>>>> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
>>>>> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in sreas
>>>>> where vaccination is heavy.
>>>>
>>>> You'd expect that.  But, how do you define "managing"?
>>>> Is it because hospitals aren't (yet) overcrowded?  Or,
>>>> fatalities (among a HEALTHIER, less prone to die)
>>>> aren't "headline grabbers"?
>>>
>>> The main effect of the vaccine is to reduce hospitalisations by a factor of
>>> 4-6 depending on local demographics and fatalities by 10-20x. Hospital
>>> admissions would have been a factor of 10 down if the Kent variant was still
>>> the main player (but it is long gone here).
>>
>> Yes, that's the *effect*.  But, I would assume the GOAL was to reduce
>> *infections*.  *That* seems to have been the emphasis for other vaccines.
>
> That isn't the UK government's game plan. They are going hell for leather to
> maximise infections in the young using nightclubs as the vehicle to facilitate
> transmission. It makes no sense at all.

The Guardian succinctly noted one aspect of the strategy:
Ministers were made aware of scientists’ concerns about
reopening nightclubs and other crowded, close-contact
and poorly ventilated venues without testing or other
checks in place. On Monday Boris Johnson made the
surprise announcement that Covid passports will be
required for such settings – but not until the end of
September, in two months’ time.

and

Prof Robert West says rhetoric about caution is ‘a way
of putting blame on public’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

On Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 12:25:56 AM UTC+10, Tom Gardner wrote:
> On 24/07/21 13:31, Martin Brown wrote:
> > On 22/07/2021 22:23, Don Y wrote:
> >> On 7/21/2021 5:48 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
> >>> On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
> >>>> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
> >>>>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y

<snip>

> Prof Robert West says rhetoric about caution is ‘a way
> of putting blame on public’
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

It makes sense, but the usual rule is not to bother hypothesising complicated motives when simple stupidity is a sufficient explanation. Boris isn't stupid, but he's much more interested in being popular than he is in minimising the damage to the health of the population, and figures he won't get blamed for the side-effects of his enthusiasm for being liked.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Sat, 24 Jul 2021 15:25:50 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

>On 24/07/21 13:31, Martin Brown wrote:
>> On 22/07/2021 22:23, Don Y wrote:
>>> On 7/21/2021 5:48 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>> On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
>>>>> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
>>>>>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>>>>>
>>>>>>> My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
>>>>>>> One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
>>>>>>> *opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
>>>>>>> (but not hospitalize)!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
>>>>>>> But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
>>>>>>> (or smallpox, etc.)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
>>>>>> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in sreas
>>>>>> where vaccination is heavy.
>>>>>
>>>>> You'd expect that.  But, how do you define "managing"?
>>>>> Is it because hospitals aren't (yet) overcrowded?  Or,
>>>>> fatalities (among a HEALTHIER, less prone to die)
>>>>> aren't "headline grabbers"?
>>>>
>>>> The main effect of the vaccine is to reduce hospitalisations by a factor of
>>>> 4-6 depending on local demographics and fatalities by 10-20x. Hospital
>>>> admissions would have been a factor of 10 down if the Kent variant was still
>>>> the main player (but it is long gone here).
>>>
>>> Yes, that's the *effect*.  But, I would assume the GOAL was to reduce
>>> *infections*.  *That* seems to have been the emphasis for other vaccines.
>>
>> That isn't the UK government's game plan. They are going hell for leather to
>> maximise infections in the young using nightclubs as the vehicle to facilitate
>> transmission. It makes no sense at all.
>
>The Guardian succinctly noted one aspect of the strategy:
> Ministers were made aware of scientists’ concerns about
> reopening nightclubs and other crowded, close-contact
> and poorly ventilated venues without testing or other
> checks in place. On Monday Boris Johnson made the
> surprise announcement that Covid passports will be
> required for such settings – but not until the end of
> September, in two months’ time.
>
>and
>
> Prof Robert West says rhetoric about caution is ‘a way
> of putting blame on public’
>
>https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims
>

The delta cases seem to spike fast and drop off with relatively few
fatalities. The Netherlands spike is amazing, looks like about 3 weeks
FWHM and only a hint of deaths so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

On 24/07/21 16:04, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> On Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 12:25:56 AM UTC+10, Tom Gardner wrote:
>> On 24/07/21 13:31, Martin Brown wrote:
>>> On 22/07/2021 22:23, Don Y wrote:
>>>> On 7/21/2021 5:48 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>>> On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
>>>>>> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
>>>>>>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>
> <snip>
>
>> Prof Robert West says rhetoric about caution is ‘a way of putting blame on
>> public’
>>
>> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims
>
>>
> It makes sense, but the usual rule is not to bother hypothesising complicated
> motives when simple stupidity is a sufficient explanation. Boris isn't
> stupid, but he's much more interested in being popular than he is in
> minimising the damage to the health of the population, and figures he won't
> get blamed for the side-effects of his enthusiasm for being liked.
>

True.

However those who will topple Boris want to be able to leave
the blame attached to Boris.

The one thing I've seen intimated, but not proven, is that
/whatever/ we do most people will catch covid now or later.

If that is the case, it is rational to
- have the associated infections when they will do less
harm economically (=> sooner) and to the NHS (=> not winter)
- wait until most people will have consequences reduced
as far as practical (=> vaccinated)

Some of the models I've seen reported appear to indicate
that might well be the case, with very significant sensitivity
to the constants in the models.

On 7/24/2021 5:31 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 22/07/2021 22:23, Don Y wrote:
>> On 7/21/2021 5:48 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>>> On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
>>>> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
>>>>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>>>>
>>>>>> My point was intended to address the issue of "herd immunity".
>>>>>> One would have thought it signified the virus finding no
>>>>>> *opportunities* for infection -- NOT that it could still infect
>>>>>> (but not hospitalize)!
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Understandably, we want to curtail death and serious illness.
>>>>>> But, we don't hear of people getting "a mild dose of polio"
>>>>>> (or smallpox, etc.)
>>>>>
>>>>> Unvaccinated areas with high delta penetration seem to
>>>>> be managing, though fatalities are higher than in sreas
>>>>> where vaccination is heavy.
>>>>
>>>> You'd expect that. But, how do you define "managing"?
>>>> Is it because hospitals aren't (yet) overcrowded? Or,
>>>> fatalities (among a HEALTHIER, less prone to die)
>>>> aren't "headline grabbers"?
>>>
>>> The main effect of the vaccine is to reduce hospitalisations by a factor of
>>> 4-6 depending on local demographics and fatalities by 10-20x. Hospital
>>> admissions would have been a factor of 10 down if the Kent variant was still
>>> the main player (but it is long gone here).
>>
>> Yes, that's the *effect*. But, I would assume the GOAL was to reduce
>> *infections*. *That* seems to have been the emphasis for other vaccines.
>
> That isn't the UK government's game plan. They are going hell for leather to
> maximise infections in the young using nightclubs as the vehicle to facilitate
> transmission. It makes no sense at all.

"Expecting" that infection will be a more effective way of "vaccinating"
everyone? That *might* make sense if the (total!) costs of that approach
(illness, lost work, quality of life, long term health consequences, etc.)
was less than that of a more deliberate amelioration strategy.

Aside from the fact that it doesn't LOOK to be the case, it also
ignores the possibility that the virus could mutate *while*
spreading and manifest as a more "costly" encounter!

Perhaps the way to fix the problem is to force the policy makers to work
in the hospital wards until the pandemic clears?

("Sick, AGAIN, Boris? What's this, your third bout with the virus?
tsk, tsk, tsk. Get well, soon -- we need you out there, cleaning bedpans
and changing linens! Javid can't do it all by himself!")

> Presently we have a national rate of 1.3% infected with Covid. It is closer to
> 2% not very far from me (I don't go there).

I don't think we (locally) have data on active infections. I think the
cumulative number of cases (assume repeat infections to be small) is
close to 10% of the population. I wonder how that compares with other
infectious diseases?

>>>> A better way of putting the current situation in perspective
>>>> is to imagine if the fatality rate among the *current* infected
>>>> population was the same as it was when "olde fartes" were the
>>>> vicitims -- how acceptable would that death rate be?
>>>>
>>>> (i.e., the *spread* is something we can see/measure. If
>>>> another variant became more deadly -- to THIS population -- would
>>>> we be as complacent?)
>>>
>>> The fact that older people are now mostly vaccinated in the UK apart from a
>>> hardcore of refusenicks and people who cannot have the vaccine because their
>>> immune systems are compromised in some way affects how the virus can
>>> propagate in the population.
>>
>> Of course! It either has to "do work" (mutate) to evade their new defenses
>> *or* find other hosts that are easier to infect "as is". (or, with lesser
>> "work" in mutation)
>
> Breakout is being observed. One of the Indi Sage presenters today has recently
> had it and he was double vaccinated and a cautious scientist. Sounded like he
> got a nasty bout too - enough to be worried that he might have long Covid but
> did recover after a couple of weeks. He described the fatigue as being very
> problematic afterwards.

Yes, the folks I know who've been down that road all say it was NOT something
they would have wanted to repeat. You don't hear them saying that about
things like colds, flus, even the "childhood diseases" -- *in* adulthood!

[I thought chicken pox as an adult was terribly inconvenient. And, the
inability to squelch the itch was maddening. But, it didn't affect my
taste, smell, sleep, eating, etc. so, other than being perpetually itchy,
it was largely just a waste of time!]

>>> This will tend to select for vaccine evading strains as the massive
>>> explosion of Covid in the young clubbers really takes off now. Until last
>>> week it was really only out of control in schools and universities. Soon it
>>> will be almost impossible to avoid in the community.
>>>
>>> The Tokyo Olympics by bringing people together from all around the world and
>>> allowing diverse strains to mix in a hot house environment stands a good
>>> chance of being a real nuisance. Perhaps it should be named Olympic Champion
>>> Covid to recognise the boneheaded decisions of the IOC to go ahead in the
>>> face of opposition from almost the entire Japanese people.
>>> (and many athletes who have declined to take part)
>>
>> The IOC are bureaucrats. They know how their bread is buttered.
>> Like any other "business", they want to maintain the income stream.
>> And, like other businesses, they (personally) are largely unaffected
>> by the risk.
>>
>> What will be interesting is if there is a lack of interest in the
>> events that the news media ("authorized sponsors") take as a
>> financial hit -- having previously PAID for exclusive rights to
>> coverage. If so, the value of "next year's" contract may suffer
>> significantly; the "brand" may take a hit.
>
> BBC is carrying it in the UK. I expect plenty of people will watch. Apparently
> the stadium was so quiet during the opening ceremony that you could hear the
> protesters outside chanting "no to the games".

Yes, amusing to see the athletes "waving" to... no one! It must be like
acting in a movie where the other characters are all CGI -- just *imagine*
them to be on set with you!

> End of the football craze seems to have slowed transmission momentarily in the
> UK. Nightclub driven infections should show up next week.

School opens soon so we'll see that. And, we've had a steady downpour of rain
which has kept people indoors (i.e., if you wanted to go out for a meal,
you couldn't reasonably eat outdoors)

On 7/24/2021 7:25 AM, Tom Gardner wrote:
> On 24/07/21 13:31, Martin Brown wrote:

>> That isn't the UK government's game plan. They are going hell for leather to
>> maximise infections in the young using nightclubs as the vehicle to
>> facilitate transmission. It makes no sense at all.
>
> The Guardian succinctly noted one aspect of the strategy:
> Ministers were made aware of scientists’ concerns about
> reopening nightclubs and other crowded, close-contact
> and poorly ventilated venues without testing or other
> checks in place. On Monday Boris Johnson made the
> surprise announcement that Covid passports will be
> required for such settings – but not until the end of
> September, in two months’ time.

Sort of like putting the condom on as you're smoking the
"after" cigarette!

> and
>
> Prof Robert West says rhetoric about caution is ‘a way
> of putting blame on public’

As the republican governors here have done. Instead of LEADING
the effort to adopt protective measures, they're now falling
into the "don't blame me, I said (in the fine print) that
folks SHOULD do these things. I just didn't want to actively
use my leadership role OR legal authority to make sure
it happened!"

Imagine during the blitz... the governor's neighbor opting NOT
to use blackout shades ("You idiot! A stray bomb could land on
*my* mansion!" "Hey, I'm just exercising my personal liberty!")

On 7/24/2021 11:05 AM, Tom Gardner wrote:
> On 24/07/21 16:04, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
>> On Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 12:25:56 AM UTC+10, Tom Gardner wrote:
>>> On 24/07/21 13:31, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>> On 22/07/2021 22:23, Don Y wrote:
>>>>> On 7/21/2021 5:48 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>>>> On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
>>>>>>> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>>
>> <snip>
>>
>>> Prof Robert West says rhetoric about caution is ‘a way of putting blame on
>>> public’
>>>
>>> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims
>>>
>>
>>>
>> It makes sense, but the usual rule is not to bother hypothesising complicated
>> motives when simple stupidity is a sufficient explanation. Boris isn't
>> stupid, but he's much more interested in being popular than he is in
>> minimising the damage to the health of the population, and figures he won't
>> get blamed for the side-effects of his enthusiasm for being liked.
>>
>
> True.
>
> However those who will topple Boris want to be able to leave
> the blame attached to Boris.
>
> The one thing I've seen intimated, but not proven, is that
> /whatever/ we do most people will catch covid now or later.
>
> If that is the case, it is rational to
> - have the associated infections when they will do less
> harm economically (=> sooner) and to the NHS (=> not winter)
> - wait until most people will have consequences reduced
> as far as practical (=> vaccinated)
>
> Some of the models I've seen reported appear to indicate
> that might well be the case, with very significant sensitivity
> to the constants in the models.

But, that assumes the situation is largely static. If epsilon
comes along during that process and happens to be very effective
at breaking through vaccinations AND fatal, you have no way
to get the toothpaste back into the tube!

On 24/07/21 21:20, Don Y wrote:
> On 7/24/2021 11:05 AM, Tom Gardner wrote:
>> On 24/07/21 16:04, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
>>> On Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 12:25:56 AM UTC+10, Tom Gardner wrote:
>>>> On 24/07/21 13:31, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>>> On 22/07/2021 22:23, Don Y wrote:
>>>>>> On 7/21/2021 5:48 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>>>>> On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y
>>>
>>> <snip>
>>>
>>>> Prof Robert West says rhetoric about caution is ‘a way of putting blame on
>>>> public’
>>>>
>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims
>>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>> It makes sense, but the usual rule is not to bother hypothesising complicated
>>> motives when simple stupidity is a sufficient explanation. Boris isn't
>>> stupid, but he's much more interested in being popular than he is in
>>> minimising the damage to the health of the population, and figures he won't
>>> get blamed for the side-effects of his enthusiasm for being liked.
>>>
>>
>> True.
>>
>> However those who will topple Boris want to be able to leave
>> the blame attached to Boris.
>>
>> The one thing I've seen intimated, but not proven, is that
>> /whatever/ we do most people will catch covid now or later.
>>
>> If that is the case, it is rational to
>>   - have the associated infections when they will do less
>>     harm economically (=> sooner) and to the NHS (=> not winter)
>>   - wait until most people will have consequences reduced
>>     as far as practical (=> vaccinated)
>>
>> Some of the models I've seen reported appear to indicate
>> that might well be the case, with very significant sensitivity
>> to the constants in the models.
>
> But, that assumes the situation is largely static.  If epsilon
> comes along during that process and happens to be very effective
> at breaking through vaccinations AND fatal, you have no way
> to get the toothpaste back into the tube!

Yup.

Some of us have noticed that.

On 7/24/2021 3:42 PM, Tom Gardner wrote:
>>> The one thing I've seen intimated, but not proven, is that
>>> /whatever/ we do most people will catch covid now or later.
>>>
>>> If that is the case, it is rational to
>>> - have the associated infections when they will do less
>>> harm economically (=> sooner) and to the NHS (=> not winter)
>>> - wait until most people will have consequences reduced
>>> as far as practical (=> vaccinated)
>>>
>>> Some of the models I've seen reported appear to indicate
>>> that might well be the case, with very significant sensitivity
>>> to the constants in the models.
>>
>> But, that assumes the situation is largely static. If epsilon
>> comes along during that process and happens to be very effective
>> at breaking through vaccinations AND fatal, you have no way
>> to get the toothpaste back into the tube!
>
> Yup.
>
> Some of us have noticed that.

So, just wishful thinking on the part of the policy makers?
Or, laziness? (it's too hard to think about how to fix this
problem so let's just hope it goes away)

"Wow! Look at the size of that funnel cloud! Let's *hope*
it doesn't come this way..."

On Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 6:15:31 AM UTC+10, Don Y wrote:
> On 7/24/2021 5:31 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
> > On 22/07/2021 22:23, Don Y wrote:
> >> On 7/21/2021 5:48 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
> >>> On 21/07/2021 03:54, Don Y wrote:
> >>>> On 7/19/2021 9:09 PM, legg wrote:
> >>>>> On Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:07:48 -0700, Don Y

<snip>

> I don't think we (locally) have data on active infections.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The seventh column lists active cases. if you go down to the state level some areas haven't made the data available.

> I think the cumulative number of cases (assume repeat infections to be small) is close to 10% of the population. I wonder how that compares with other
> infectious diseases?

The common cold and flu would be the obvious choices. The Spanish flu apparently end up infecting about a third of the world population

<snip>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.
>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
> Comparison charts, as of Jun 30 are available:
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210630_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_022.jpg
> Updated Jun 30
>

> The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
> vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
> 49.2% and 43% respectively.

> This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
> the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
> previously.

> Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
> This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
> fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
> neighbours.

> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).

Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

As of Jul 26:
US detections are at 104059ppm.(10.4%)
Detection rate is 157ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1846ppm at 0.8ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 102960ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 1470ppm/day
10.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1022100ppm (102.2%) at 1700ppm/day
- with 48.8% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 37989ppm (3.8%) ~ 246 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 12ppm/day and possibly leveling below 20ppm/day.
Fatalities are 702ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.9% from a 37908ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1440ppm/day
0.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1260800ppm (126.1%) at 8800ppm/day
- with 55.2% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 71407ppm. (7.1%)
Detection rate is 71ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2116ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 70912ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 3190ppm/day.
2.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1017900ppm (101.8%) at 8700ppm/day
- with 43.0% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 108602ppm (10.9%)
Detection rate is 36ppm/day and possibly leveling below 45ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1451ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 108358ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 1020ppm/day.
3.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1004300ppm (100.4%) at 7000ppm/day
with 39.0% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 84309ppm. (8.4%)
Detection rate is 564ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1907ppm at 1.0ppm/day.
FR is 2.4% from a 80359ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 15850ppm/day.
3.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1229600ppm (123.0%) at 6500ppm/day
- with 54.4% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 92627ppm. (9.3%)
Detection rate is 210ppm/day and possibly leveling below 230ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2587ppm at 5.2ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 91158ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is possible.
Vaccinations at 620800ppm (62.1%) at 5300ppm/day
- with 17.5% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 63522ppm (6.3%)
Detection rate is 10ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 5922ppm at 0.9ppm/day.
FR is 9.3% from a 63452pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is 290ppm/day.
3.4% of tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 367600ppm (36.8%) at 5000ppm/day
- with 13.6% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 84179ppm (8.4%)
Detection rate is 69ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1832ppm at 3.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 83692ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2540ppm/day.
2.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 1323600ppm (132.4%) at 4200ppm/day
- with 63.1% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 107236ppm (10.7%)
Detection rate is 285ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2295ppm at 6.9ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 105239ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 730ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 657700ppm (66.8%) at 8000ppm/day
- with 13.3% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 21317ppm (2.1%)
Detection rate is 99ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1849ppm at 2.3ppm/day.
FR is 9.0% from a 20624ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 190ppm/day.
Test positivity values are impractical.
Vaccinations at 462100ppm (46.2%) at 6300ppm/day
- with 18.3% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 40092ppm (4.0%)
Detection rate is 200ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1176ppm at 7.0ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 38697ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 780ppm/day.
25.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 107600ppm (10.8%) at 3100ppm/day
- with 3.9% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156109ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 18ppm/day and leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2835ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156040ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 9170ppm/day.
0.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 933400ppm (93.3%) at 6200ppm/day
- with 32.9% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 22762ppm (2.3%)
Detection rate is 28ppm/day and possibly leveling below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 305ppm at 0.7ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 22568ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1370ppm/day.
2.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 315400ppm (31.5%) at 2800ppm/day
- with 6.8% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 99434ppm (9.9%)
Detection rate is 147ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 746ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 98402ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 8210ppm/day.
1.8% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 1278900ppm (127.9%) at 1500ppm/day
- with 61.3% vaccinated.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

RL

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.

Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indictaed that
Covid 19 exposure was indicated in 67% of test subjects. This
compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020.

http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
Comparison charts, as of Jul 31 are available:

http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg

http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_report_group.jpg

http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.

http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_023.jpg
Updated Jul 31
>

As of Aug 01:
US detections are at 105750ppm.(10.6%)
Detection rate is 237ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1853ppm at 1.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 104059ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 1770ppm/day
13.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 103.6% at 2000ppm/day
- with 49.3% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 38122ppm (3.8%) ~ 251 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 19ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 704ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.9% from a 37989ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1340ppm/day
1.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 131.2% at 7300ppm/day
- with 59.4% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 72035ppm. (7.2%)
Detection rate is 88ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2118ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 71407ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 3440ppm/day.
2.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 113.4% at 7900ppm/day
- with 52.3% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 108923ppm (10.9%)
Detection rate is 46ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1451ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 108602ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 104.6% at 6000ppm/day
- with 41.3% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 87022ppm. (8.7%)
Detection rate is 398ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1915ppm at 1.2ppm/day.
FR is 2.3% from a 84309ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 13400ppm/day.
3.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 125.5% at 3100ppm/day
- with 56.5% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 93801ppm. (9.4%)
Detection rate is 166ppm/day and possibly leveling below 180ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2620ppm at 4.6ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 92627ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 67.0% at 7200ppm/day
- with 19.5% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 64091ppm (6.4%)
Detection rate is 37ppm/day and possibly leveling below 40ppm.
Fatalities are 5958ppm at 2.4ppm/day.
FR is 9.4% from a 63522pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 39.9% at 4400ppm/day
- with 15.6% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 84585ppm (8.5%)
Detection rate is 60ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1859ppm at 3.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 83619ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2790ppm/day.
2.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 134.1% at 2500ppm/day
- with 64.5% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 109210ppm (10.9%)
Detection rate is 287ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2340ppm at 6.5ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 107236ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 690ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 71.7% at 7700ppm/day
- with 18.6% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 22143ppm (2.2%)
Detection rate is 118ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1869ppm at 2.9ppm/day.
FR is 9.0% from a 21317ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 220ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 52.2% at 7500ppm/day
- with 20.0% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 41414ppm (4.1%)
Detection rate is 191ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1217ppm at 5.8ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 40092ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 780ppm/day.
24.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 12.7% at 2800ppm/day
- with 4.8% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156289ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 16ppm/day and leveling below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2836ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156109ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 9720ppm/day.
0.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 96.8% at 4800ppm/day
- with 45.3% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 22968ppm (2.3%)
Detection rate is 29ppm/day and possibly leveling below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 308ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 22762ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1210ppm/day.
2.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 34.2% at 3800ppm/day
- with 7.6% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 101184ppm (10.1%)
Detection rate is 241ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 748ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 99434ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 10710ppm/day.
2.3% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 129.0% at 1600ppm/day
- with 62.1% vaccinated.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

> The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
> vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
> 49.2% and 43% respectively.

> This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
> the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
> previously.

> Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
> This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
> fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
> neighbours.

> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>
> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020.

> http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
> Comparison charts, as of Jul 31 are available:

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_023.jpg
> Updated Jul 31
>

As of Aug 09:
US detections are at 108047ppm.(10.8%)
Detection rate is 328ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1864ppm at 1.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 105750ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 2150ppm/day
15.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 105% at 2100ppm/day
- with 49.8% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 38326ppm (3.8%) ~ 258 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 29ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 705ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 38122ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1360ppm/day
2.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 134% at 4400ppm/day
- with 61.8% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 72714ppm. (7.3%)
Detection rate is 97ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2121ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 72035ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 3310ppm/day.
2.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 119% at 6700ppm/day
- with 55.3% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 109368ppm (10.9%)
Detection rate is 64ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1451ppm at 0.0ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 108923ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 1060ppm/day.
6.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 108% at 5300ppm/day
- with 43.9% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 89829ppm. (9.0%)
Detection rate is 401ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1924ppm at 1.3ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 87022ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 11080ppm/day.
3.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 127% at 2800ppm/day
- with 58.1% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 94871ppm. (9.5%)
Detection rate is 153ppm/day and possibly leveling below 160ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2649ppm at 4.3ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 93801ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 72.0% at 7000ppm/day
- with 21.5% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 64439ppm (6.4%)
Detection rate is 53ppm/day and possibly leveling below 60ppm.
Fatalities are 5973ppm at 2.2ppm/day.
FR is 9.4% from a 64091pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 43% at 6200ppm/day
- with 18.0% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 84921ppm (8.5%)
Detection rate is 48ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1884ppm at 3.7ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 84129ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2830ppm/day.
1.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 134% at 2200ppm/day
- with 65.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 111043ppm (11.1%)
Detection rate is 263ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2378ppm at 5.3ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 109210ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 690ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 77% at 7800ppm/day
- with 18.9% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 23049ppm (2.3%)
Detection rate is 129ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1896ppm at 3.8ppm/day.
FR is 8.6% from a 22143ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 220ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 56% at 5000ppm/day
- with 21.2% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 42717ppm (4.3%)
Detection rate is 186ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1261ppm at 6.3ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 41414ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 790ppm/day.
23.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 15% at 2500ppm/day
- with 6.0% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156402ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 16ppm/day and leveling below 25ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2835ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156289ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 9710ppm/day.
0.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 100% at 4000ppm/day
- with 47.5% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 23167ppm (2.3%)
Detection rate is 28ppm/day and possibly leveling below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 310ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 22968ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1210ppm/day.
2.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 37% at 3800ppm/day
- with 8.2% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 104035ppm (10.4%)
Detection rate is 407ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 756ppm at 1.1ppm/day.
FR is 0.7% from a 101184ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 11940ppm/day.
3.4% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 135.0% at 8100ppm/day
- with 62.4% vaccinated.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

> The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
> vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
> 49.2% and 43% respectively.

> This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
> the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
> previously.

> Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
> This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
> fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
> neighbours.

> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>
> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020.

> http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
> Comparison charts, as of Jul 31 are available:

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_023.jpg
> Updated Jul 31
>

As of Aug 16:
US detections are at 110811ppm.(11.1%)
Detection rate is 395ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1878ppm at 2.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.7% from a 108047ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 2460ppm/day
16.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 107% at 2100ppm/day
- with 50% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 38659ppm (3.9%) ~ 264 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 48ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 706ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 38326ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1560ppm/day
3.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 136% at 3700ppm/day
- with 64% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 73446ppm. (7.3%)
Detection rate is 105ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2124ppm at 0.5ppm/day.
FR is 2.9% from a 72714ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 3610ppm/day.
2.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 122% at 4600ppm/day
- with 57% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 109923ppm (11.0%)
Detection rate is 79ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1451ppm at 0.0ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 109368ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 1230ppm/day.
6.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 113% at 6900ppm/day
- with 47% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 92761ppm. (9.3%)
Detection rate is 419ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1934ppm at 1.3ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 89829ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 10970ppm/day.
3.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 129% at 3000ppm/day
- with 59% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 95804ppm. (9.6%)
Detection rate is 133ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2677ppm at 4.0ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 94871ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 77.0% at 7800ppm/day
- with 23% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 64716ppm (6.5%)
Detection rate is 37ppm/day and possibly leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 5987ppm at 1.9ppm/day.
FR is 9.3% from a 64439pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported (~270ppm/day).
~ 13.4% of recent tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 48% at 4100ppm/day
- with 21% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 85226ppm (8.5%)
Detection rate is 44ppm/day and possibly leveling below 50ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1903ppm at 2.7ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 84632ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2790ppm/day.
1.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 140% at 3300ppm/day
- with 68.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 112502ppm (11.3%)
Detection rate is 208ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2413ppm at 5.0ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 111043ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 760ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 81% at 6400ppm/day
- with 22% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 23981ppm (2.4%)
Detection rate is 133ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1925ppm at 4.2ppm/day.
FR is 8.6% from a 23049ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 230ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 60% at 5600ppm/day
- with 23% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 43933ppm (4.4%)
Detection rate is 174ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1301ppm at 5.6ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 42717ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is unreported (~790ppm/day).
~ 22.0% of recent tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 16% at 1900ppm/day
- with 7.0% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156525ppm (15.6%)
Detection rate is 18ppm/day and leveling below 25ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2836ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156402ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 9510ppm/day.
0.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 102% at 3600ppm/day
- with 50% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 23352ppm (2.3%)
Detection rate is 26ppm/day and leveling below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 313ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 23167ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1230ppm/day.
2.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 39% at 3600ppm/day
- with 9% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 108527ppm (10.9%)
Detection rate is 642ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 770ppm at 2.1ppm/day.
FR is 0.7% from a 104035ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 13580ppm/day.
4.7% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 141.0% at 8500ppm/day
- with 63% fully vaccinated.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

> The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
> vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
> 49.2% and 43% respectively.

> This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
> the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
> previously.

> Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
> This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
> fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
> neighbours.

> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>
> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

>
> - . . . and what the hell is going on in Argentina, anyways?
>
> - Peru has recently doubled it's covid fatality count. It's not
> a typo, but a correction in record keeping.

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020.

> http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
> Comparison charts, as of Jul 31 are available:

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_023.jpg
> Updated Jul 31
>

As of Aug 23:
US detections are at 113926ppm.(11.4%)
Detection rate is 445ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1899ppm at 3.0ppm/day.
FR is 1.7% from a 110811ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 2980ppm/day
14.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 108% at 2700ppm/day
- with 51% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 39095ppm (3.9%) ~ 270 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 62ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 709ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 38659ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1740ppm/day
3.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 139% at 3300ppm/day
- with 66% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 74173ppm. (7.4%)
Detection rate is 104ppm/day and possibly leveling below 120ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2129ppm at 0.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.9% from a 73446ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 3300ppm/day.
3.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 125% at 3500ppm/day
- with 58% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 110561ppm (11.1%)
Detection rate is 91ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1452ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 109923ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 1440ppm/day.
6.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 118% at 8000ppm/day
- with 51% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 96096ppm. (9.6%)
Detection rate is 476ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1944ppm at 1.5ppm/day.
FR is 2.1% from a 92761ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 10890ppm/day.
4.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 132% at 3100ppm/day
- with 61% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 96777ppm. (9.7%)
Detection rate is 139ppm/day and leveling below 150ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2703ppm at 3.7ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 95804ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 83.0% at 8100ppm/day
- with 26% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 64941ppm (6.5%)
Detection rate is 32ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 6000ppm at 1.8ppm/day.
FR is 9.3% from a 64716pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is 280ppm/day.
~ 11.4% of recent tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 52% at 3600ppm/day
- with 23% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 85468ppm (8.5%)
Detection rate is 35ppm/day and possibly leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1917ppm at 2.0ppm/day.
FR is 2.3% from a 84921ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2770ppm/day.
1.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 146% at 7200ppm/day
- with 69.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 113591ppm (11.4%)
Detection rate is 156ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2442ppm at 4.1ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 112502ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 710ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 86% at 7200ppm/day
- with 26% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 25014ppm (2.5%)
Detection rate is 148ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1964ppm at 5.5ppm/day.
FR is 8.2% from a 23981ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 230ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 63% at 4500ppm/day
- with 24% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 45372ppm (4.5%)
Detection rate is 206ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1339ppm at 5.5ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 43933ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 820ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 18% at 2600ppm/day
- with 8.0% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156645ppm (15.7%)
Detection rate is 17ppm/day and level below 25ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2837ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156525ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 8620ppm/day.
0.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 105% at 3200ppm/day
- with 52% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 23514ppm (2.4%)
Detection rate is 23ppm/day and level below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 315ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 23352ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1330ppm/day.
1,7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 42% at 3500ppm/day
- with 9% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 114438ppm (11.4%)
Detection rate is 844ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 789ppm at 2.7ppm/day.
FR is 0.7% from a 108527ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 15860ppm/day.
5.3% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 148.0% at 9990ppm/day
- with 63% fully vaccinated.

Doses recently applied in Israel appear to be providing
3rd dose booster reinforcement, without contributing to
completion of a vaccination schedule.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

> The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
> vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
> 49.2% and 43% respectively.

> This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
> the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
> previously.

> Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
> This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
> fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
> neighbours.

> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>
> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020.

> http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>
>
> Comparison charts, as of Jul 31 are available:

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_deaths_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210731_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg
>
>
>
> Flu Season? Fatality comparison in the U.S.A.

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_023.jpg
> Updated Jul 31
>

As of Aug 30:
US detections are at 116536ppm.(11.7%)
Detection rate is 466ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1915ppm at 3.9ppm/day.
FR is 1.7% from a 113926ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 3270ppm/day
14.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 110% at 2600ppm/day
- with 52% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 39332ppm (3.9%) ~ 276 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 80ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 708ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 39095ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 1840ppm/day
4.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 140% at 2800ppm/day
- with 66% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 75644ppm. (7.6%)
Detection rate is 108ppm/day and possibly leveling below 120ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2138ppm at 0.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.9% from a 74173ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 3480ppm/day.
3.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 128% at 4300ppm/day
- with 60% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 110570ppm (11.1%)
Detection rate is 96ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1445ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 109923ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 1690ppm/day.
5.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 122% at 6600ppm/day
- with 54.5% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 99152ppm. (9.9%)
Detection rate is 501ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1946ppm at 1.7ppm/day.
FR is 2.0% from a 96096ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 10890ppm/day.
4.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 133% at 2700ppm/day
- with 63% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 96927ppm. (9.7%)
Detection rate is 114ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2707ppm at 3.2ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 96777ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 88.0% at 8300ppm/day
- with 29% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 64368ppm (6.4%)
Detection rate is 22ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 5939ppm at 1.0ppm/day.
FR is 9.2% from a 64241pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 54% at 3900ppm/day
- with 23% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 85249ppm (8.5%)
Detection rate is 30ppm/day and possibly leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1920ppm at 1.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.3% from a 84838ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2740ppm/day.
1.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 149% at 5300ppm/day
- with 70.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 113440ppm (11.3%)
Detection rate is 124ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2442ppm at 3.2ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 112704ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 700ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 91% at 8500ppm/day
- with 30% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 25608ppm (2.6%)
Detection rate is 121ppm/day and possibly leveling below 140ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1982ppm at 5.5ppm/day.
FR is 7.9% from a 25014ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 210ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 65% at 4100ppm/day
- with 26% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 46050ppm (4.6%)
Detection rate is 176ppm/day and possibly leveling below 200ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1359ppm at 5.2ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 45372ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 1130ppm/day.
15.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 20% at 3600ppm/day
- with 9.0% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156544ppm (15.7%)
Detection rate is 18ppm/day and level below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2835ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156427ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 8440ppm/day.
0.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 107% at 2700ppm/day
- with 53% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 23495ppm (2.4%)
Detection rate is 30ppm/day and level below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 314ppm at 0.4ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 23306ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1310ppm/day.
2.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 45% at 5300ppm/day
- with 10% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 119640ppm (12.0%)
Detection rate is 993ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 795ppm at 2.6ppm/day.
FR is 0.7% from a 114438ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 15820ppm/day.
6.3% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 153.0% at 10500ppm/day
- with 62% fully vaccinated.

Doses applied in Israel appear to be providing 3rd dose booster
reinforcement, without contributing to completed vaccinations.

Had serious issues this week with detection, fatality and full
immunization figures being retroactively revised downwards by
Johns Hopkins statisticians.This had the effect of a 1 week to
ten days shift in many figures reported here, with little effect
on longer-term derived stats.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>

> The US, UK, Chile, Canada and Italy have all issued >=~100% of
> vaccine doses, with vaccination rates of 48.1%, 53.0%, 60.4%,
> 49.2% and 43% respectively.

> This roughly equals or exceeds the vaccination rate recorded for
> the Pfizer trial in Israel in the last week of March 2021, 120 days
> previously.

> Detection and fatality rates, however, do not seem to correlate.
> This is particularly the case for Chile, where detection and
> fatality rates still remain roughly comparable to their ~unvaccinated
> neighbours.

> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>
> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020.

> http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>

Comparison charts, as of Aug 31 are available:

http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg

http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_deaths_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg

http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg

Flu Season? Fatality comparison to past events in the U.S.A.

http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_023.jpg

Updated Aug 31 to illustrate recent kink in data.

As of Sep 06:
US detections are at 119985ppm.(12.0%)
Detection rate is 492ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1948ppm at 4.7ppm/day.
FR is 1.7% from a 116536ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 11800ppm/day
4.2% of current tests are positive, with the increased test rate.
Vaccinations at 111% at 2800ppm/day
- with 52% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 39998ppm (4.0%) ~ 282 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 95ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 711ppm at 0.4ppm/day. ~ 306 days behind the US.
FR is 1.8% from a 39332ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 2040ppm/day
4.6% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 141% at 2600ppm/day
- with 67% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 75727ppm. (7.6%)
Detection rate is 98ppm/day and possibly leveling below 110ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2145ppm at 1.0ppm/day.
FR is 2.8% from a 75644ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 4250ppm/day.
2.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 131% at 4600ppm/day
- with 62% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 111270ppm (11.1%)
Detection rate is 100ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1446ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 110570ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 2570ppm/day.
3.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 126% at 6000ppm/day
- with 58% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 102783ppm. (10.3%)
Detection rate is 519ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1958ppm at 1.7ppm/day.
FR is 2.0% from a 99152ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 12250ppm/day.
4.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 134% at 2000ppm/day
- with 64% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 97623ppm. (9.8%)
Detection rate is 99ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2727ppm at 2.9ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 96927ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 83.0% at 7800ppm/day
- with 31% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 64600ppm (6.5%)
Detection rate is 33ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 5950ppm at 1.6ppm/day.
FR is 9.2% from a 64368pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 58% at 4100ppm/day
- with 25% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 85418ppm (8.5%)
Detection rate is 24ppm/day and possibly leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1931ppm at 1.5ppm/day.
FR is 2.3% from a 85090ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2650ppm/day.
0.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 153% at 5900ppm/day
- with 72.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 114104ppm (11.4%)
Detection rate is 95ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2467ppm at 3.5ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 113440ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is 760ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 97% at 8700ppm/day
- with 35% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 26319ppm (2.6%)
Detection rate is 102ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2020ppm at 5.5ppm/day.
FR is 7.9% from a 25608ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 170ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 67% at 3000ppm/day
- with 27% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 46966ppm (4.7%)
Detection rate is 131ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1389ppm at 4.3ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 46050ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is 730ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 22% at 3100ppm/day
- with 11% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156702ppm (15.7%)
Detection rate is 23ppm/day and level below 30ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2835ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156544ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 7700ppm/day.
0.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 107% at 1600ppm/day
- with 54% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 23703ppm (2.4%)
Detection rate is 30ppm/day and level below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 316ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 23495ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1230ppm/day.
2.4% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 49% at 5300ppm/day
- with 11% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 127142ppm (12.7%)
Detection rate is 1072ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 820ppm at 3.5ppm/day.
FR is 0.7% from a 119640ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 15340ppm/day.
7.0% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 160.0% at 10800ppm/day
- with 63% fully vaccinated.

Doses applied in Israel appear to be providing 3rd dose booster
reinforcement, without contributing to completed vaccinations.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>
> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>
> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

RL

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020.

> http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>

> Comparison charts, as of Aug 31 are available:

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_deaths_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg

> Flu Season? Fatality comparison to past events in the U.S.A.

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_023.jpg

> Updated Aug 31 to illustrate recent kink in data.

As of Sep 13:
US detections are at 123020ppm.(12.3%)
Detection rate is 433ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1982ppm at 4.9ppm/day.
FR is 1.7% from a 119985ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 3520ppm/day
12.3% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 113% at 2200ppm/day
- with 53% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 40713ppm (4.1%) ~ 288 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 102ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 716ppm at 0.7ppm/day. ~ 305 days behind the US.
FR is 1.8% from a 39998ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 2050ppm/day
5.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 143% at 2200ppm/day
- with 68% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 76306ppm. (7.6%)
Detection rate is 83ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2152ppm at 1.0ppm/day.
FR is 2.8% from a 75727ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 4580ppm/day.
1.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 134% at 4000ppm/day
- with 64% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 112008ppm (11.2%)
Detection rate is 105ppm/day and possibly leveling below 110ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1447ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 111270ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 3330ppm/day.
3.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 129% at 4900ppm/day
- with 60% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 106437ppm. (10.6%)
Detection rate is 322ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1972ppm at 2.0ppm/day.
FR is 1.9% from a 102783ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 16010ppm/day.
2.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 135% at 1700ppm/day
- with 65% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 98133ppm. (9.8%)
Detection rate is 73ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2743ppm at 2.2ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 97623ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 98.0% at 6600ppm/day
- with 34% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 64782ppm (6.5%)
Detection rate is 26ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 5958ppm at 1.2ppm/day.
FR is 9.2% from a 64782pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 62% at 5400ppm/day
- with 26% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 85574ppm (8.6%)
Detection rate is 22ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1938ppm at 1.1ppm/day.
FR is 2.3% from a 85275ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2660ppm/day.
0.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 157% at 5700ppm/day
- with 72.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 114558ppm (11.5%)
Detection rate is 65ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2487ppm at 2.8ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 114104ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 102% at 7800ppm/day
- with 39% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 26960ppm (2.7%)
Detection rate is 92ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2055ppm at 5.1ppm/day.
FR is 7.6% from a 26319ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 170ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 70% at 5200ppm/day
- with 30% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 47603ppm (4.8%)
Detection rate is 91ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1414ppm at 3.5ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 46966ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 24% at 3900ppm/day
- with 12% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 156946ppm (15.7%)
Detection rate is 35ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2836ppm at 0.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156702ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 6900ppm/day.
0.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 108% at 1100ppm/day
- with 54% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 23873ppm (2.4%)
Detection rate is 24ppm/day and level below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 318ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 23703ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1210ppm/day.
2.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 53% at 5700ppm/day
- with 13% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 133336ppm (13.3%)
Detection rate is 888ppm/day and possibly leveling below 1000ppm/day.
Fatalities at 840ppm at 2.9ppm/day.
FR is 0.7% from a 127142ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 11990ppm/day.
7.4% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 164.0% at 4400ppm/day
- with 63% fully vaccinated.

Doses applied in Israel appear to be providing 3rd dose booster
reinforcement, without contributing to completed vaccinations.
The same seems to be true in Chile.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>
> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07.
..
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>

RL

> Per capita comparisons are interesting, as they represent
> efforts, within political boundaries, equally.
> Data is easily obtained by visiting the data explorer page
> at Our World in Data:

> http://tiny.cc/ul41tz

>
> A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
> an approximately 4% penetration within a population.
>
> Testing of blood donor samples in Quebec suggests that covid-19
> antibodies are present in the local population at 3x positive
> virus detection test rate.

> Testing for antibodies in India in May/Jun 2021, indicated that
> Covid 19 exposure was present in 67% of test subjects. This
> compared to a 7% figure recorded in the fall of 2020.

> http://alturl.com/cdezz

>
> multiply ppm by population (in millions) for real numbers.
> China - 1397 million
> Iceland - 0.36 million
> US - 330 million
> Canada - 37 million
> Italy - 60 million
> Sweden - 10 million
> UK - 66 million
> Brazil - 210 million
> Peru - 32 million
> Chile - 19 million
> Argentina - 45 million
> Mexico - 127 million
> South Africa - 58 million
> Czech Republic - 10.7 million
> Israel - 10 million
> India - 1391 million
>
> Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
> Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
> Median age in US, China and Russia is 38.7, 38.4 and 37.6yrs respectively.
> Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
> Median age in Israel is 30.4yrs.
> Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
> Median age in India is 26.8yrs.
> Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
>

> Comparison charts, as of Aug 31 are available:

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_cases_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_cases_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_deaths_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_deaths_ppm_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_deaths_daily_ppm_report_group.jpg

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_vaccine_doses_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_vaccine_doses_daily_report_group.jpg
> http://ve3ute.ca/query/210831_vaccinations_completed_report_group.jpg

> Flu Season? Fatality comparison to past events in the U.S.A.

> http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_023.jpg

> Updated Aug 31 to illustrate recent kink in data.

As of Sep 20:
US detections are at 126423ppm.(12.6%)
Detection rate is 442ppm/day and possibly leveling below 470ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2024ppm at 5.8ppm/day.
FR is 1.6% from a 123020ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US test rate is 3640ppm/day
12.1% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 115% at 2300ppm/day
- with 54% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 41531ppm (4.2%) ~ 293 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 117ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 721ppm at 0.7ppm/day. ~ 315 days behind the US.
FR is 1.8% from a 40713ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canada test rate is 2380ppm/day
4.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 145% at 2500ppm/day
- with 69% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 76798ppm. (7.7%)
Detection rate is 70ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2159ppm at 0.9ppm/day.
FR is 2.8% from a 76306ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italy test rate is 4610ppm/day.
1.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 137% at 3500ppm/day
- with 65% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 112693ppm (11.3%)
Detection rate is 98ppm/day and possibly leveling below 110ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1454ppm at 1.0ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 112008ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden test rate is 3690ppm/day.
2.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 132% at 3700ppm/day
- with 62% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 109443ppm. (10.9%)
Detection rate is 429ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 1987ppm at 2.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.9% from a 106437ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK test rate is 15210ppm/day.
2.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 136% at 1200ppm/day
- with 65% fully vaccinated

Brazil detections at 99254ppm. (9.9%)
Detection rate is 160ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2761ppm at 2.6ppm/day
FR is 2.8% from an 98133ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazil test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 104% at 6900ppm/day
- with 37% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 64959ppm (6.5%)
Detection rate is 25ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 5967ppm at 1.3ppm/day.
FR is 9.2% from a 64782pm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 70% at 7900ppm/day
- with 28% fully vaccinated

Chile detections at 85750ppm (8.6%)
Detection rate is 25ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1945ppm at 0.9ppm/day.
FR is 2.3% from a 85418ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile test rate is 2560ppm/day.
1.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 160% at 4300ppm/day
- with 73.0% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 114881ppm (11.5%)
Detection rate is 46ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2509ppm at 3.2ppm/day.
FR is 2.2% from a 114558ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Argentina test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 107% at 6100ppm/day
- with 43% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 27404ppm (2.7%)
Detection rate is 63ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2084ppm at 4.1ppm/day.
FR is 7.7% from a 26960ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico test rate is 170ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 73% at 3900ppm/day
- with 32% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 48010ppm (4.8%)
Detection rate is 58ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1435ppm at 3.1ppm/day.
FR is 3.0% from a 47603ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 27% at 3100ppm/day
- with 13% fully vaccinated.

Czech detections at 157226ppm (15.7%)
Detection rate is 40ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2837ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.8% from a 156946ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Czech test rate is 6140ppm/day.
0.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 109% at 900ppm/day
- with 55% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 24026ppm (2.4%)
Detection rate is 22ppm/day and level below 35ppm/day.
Fatalities at 319ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.3% from a 23873ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
India test rate 1150ppm/day.
1.9% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 58% at 6600ppm/day
- with 14% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 139722ppm (14.0%)
Detection rate is 908ppm/day and possibly leveling below 1000ppm/day.
Fatalities at 858ppm at 2.6ppm/day.
FR is 0.6% from a 133336ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Israel test rate is 17650ppm/day.
5.1% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 168.0% at 4500ppm/day
- with 63% fully vaccinated.

Doses applied in Israel appear to be providing 3rd dose booster
reinforcement, without contributing to completed vaccinations.
The same seems to be true also in Chile and the UK.

>
> Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
> Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
> with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
> Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
> Sinovac's 'CoronaVac' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
> temperatures. About 60% of Chile's contracted 80 million doses
> are from Sinovac.
>
> Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
> regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
> allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
> to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
> use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.
>
> The UK and S.Africa both exhibited increasing detection rates
> after June 07. Fatality rates in the UK do not yet reflect
> an increased case count ( historically expected after 21 days).
> S.Africa deaths have followed their detections more closely,
> possibly due to low test rates (for asymptomatic carriers).
>
> Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
> seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
> Detection rates in S.Africa also seem to have turned around.

RL