On Sun, 11 Sep 2022 12:23:30 -0700 (PDT), "pete...@gmail.com"
<petertrei@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 2:46:23 PM UTC-4, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>> In article <0l4shhlnh44plrbip...@4ax.com>,
>> Paul S Person <pspe...@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>> >My advice to Putin has not changed:
>> >
>> >negotiate a complete withdrawal from the Ukraine (included the Crimea)
>> >/now/ before Kaliningrad is put on the table.
>> (Hal Heydt)
>> Curiosity only... Who do think would get Kaliningrad?
>> Lithuania, Poland, or Germany? (The last because that used to
>> be--at least part of--East Prussia.)
>>
>> Perhaps another area to consider would be the Karellian
>> Peninsula, assuming that the Finns might want it back.
>
>The problem is that part of the Stalinist/Soviet/Russian/Putinist
>playbook is the wholesale relocation of populations, while moving
>In Russians, with the goal of Russification. The population of the
>Kaliningrad Oblast is now 86% Russian, and under 1% German.
>
>Crimea is similar; 67% Russian, 15% Ukrainian. The ethnic group
>that 'should' have it, Crimean Tartars, is only 12%.
>
>I consider Ukraine getting Crimea back a very long shot.

AFAIK, the Crimea is still part of Ukraine in the eyes of most of the
world. The "referendum" (or whatever they called it), IOW, is not
considered valid.

And the recent spate of attacks appear to have spooked some of the
Russians into at least thinking of returning to Mother Russia.

>As for Karelia, Finland evacuated the Finnish population
>(422k) back into Finland before turning it over. It's now almost
>wholly Russian.
>
>Stalin, Putin, Andrew Jackson,and Quaddie would happily consider 'fixing' this
>with forced migration. Most would not.

Nor would I.
--
"In this connexion, unquestionably the most significant
development was the disintegration, under Christian
influence, of classical conceptions of the family and
of family right."

On 9/12/2022 9:52 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>
> This shows both why Russia is a bit paranoid toward its neighbors.
> Particularly given how Russia has treated its neighbors in the past.

The Russians (or at least its leaders) don't seem to understand that
their treatment of their neighbors is _WHY_ their neighbors don't like
them enough for Russia to have a reason to be wary of them. So Russia
keeps antagonizing their neighbors perpetuating the cycle.

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:10:46 PM UTC-4, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
> On 9/12/2022 9:52 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
> >
> > This shows both why Russia is a bit paranoid toward its neighbors.
> > Particularly given how Russia has treated its neighbors in the past.
> The Russians (or at least its leaders) don't seem to understand that
> their treatment of their neighbors is _WHY_ their neighbors don't like
> them enough for Russia to have a reason to be wary of them. So Russia
> keeps antagonizing their neighbors perpetuating the cycle.

Russia is paranoid, but there's reasons.

Russia has been invaded A LOT. In the 20th century, 9 times:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia

That's a historical fact, and looms large in Russian planning. For them its not
'Will they invade?', but 'When will the next invasion be? 'A big part of the
problem is that Moscow and most of western Russia sit on an open plain,
without any significant natural barriers for hundreds of miles. Its under a
7 hour drive from Ukraine to Moscow. Its borders are inherently not secure.

The only thing Russia can do to protect itself is to push out its sphere of influence
until it reaches more defensible territory. It had that control during the USSR days,
with Eastern Europe under its sway, Finland neutralized, and the Baltics part of its
own territory. Plus pushing down to Turkey.

Russia will continue to try to turn its neighbors into client states until it is no longer
able to do so. By diplomacy if possible, by war if not.

Russia delenda est.

pt

"pete...@gmail.com" <petertrei@gmail.com> writes:
>On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:10:46 PM UTC-4, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>> On 9/12/2022 9:52 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>> >
>> > This shows both why Russia is a bit paranoid toward its neighbors.
>> > Particularly given how Russia has treated its neighbors in the past.
>> The Russians (or at least its leaders) don't seem to understand that
>> their treatment of their neighbors is _WHY_ their neighbors don't like
>> them enough for Russia to have a reason to be wary of them. So Russia
>> keeps antagonizing their neighbors perpetuating the cycle.
>
>Russia is paranoid, but there's reasons.
>
>Russia has been invaded A LOT. In the 20th century, 9 times:
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia

On the other hand,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion

Turnabout is fair play...

For most of that period (15th-18th Cent.), competition for Empire was strong
amongst all the European monarchs.

On 09/10/2022 03:02 PM, a425couple wrote:
> On 09/10/2022 12:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>> feeling OK?
>>
>
> I think they may be feeling a bit green around the gills.
>

A few months ago, this would have seemed impossible.

from
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2022/09/12/ukraine-strikes-multiple-targets-inside-russia-more-deputies-call-for-putins-ouster-n1628687?utm_source=pjmedia&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_pm&bcid=893610eff4e6a5bc8df6b64626036cd266c0b90a528f48a482db66f5495cbcc4&recip=22426602

Ukraine Strikes Multiple Targets INSIDE Russia, More Deputies Call for
Putin's Ouster
BY STEPHEN GREEN SEP 12, 2022 1:53 PM ET

AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti
Ukraine hit targets inside Russia in the past few hours, complicating
Russian efforts to stabilize their lines.

The weekend rout of Russian forces out of the Kharkiv Oblast (region) is
nearly complete, and all signs indicate that Ukraine is moving quickly
to continue the counteroffensive into the disputed Donetsk Oblast.

Meanwhile, in Russia’s capital and second-largest city:

BREAKING:
Deputies in 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a
statement demanding that Putin resign.
"President Putin's actions are detrimental to the future of Russia and
its citizens."

I’ll get back to Russia’s domestic politics shortly, but first let’s
look at their deteriorating position on the ground in Ukraine — and
inside their own borders, too.

The Ukraine Army barely paused for breath after clearing almost all of
Kharkiv of Russian forces in a six-day counteroffensive that was
basically wrapped up on Saturday. But that doesn’t mean the advance has
stopped, as forces move into position to retake more and more of Donetsk.

This first video is from Russia’s Taganrog Air Base, which is home to a
military air transport unit. It’s in Russia’s Rostov Oblast, about
halfway between the cities of Rostov-on-Don and Russian-occupied
Mariupol. That’s in the south on the Azov Sea.

Translation: “A powerful explosion occurred in Taganrog, according to
Russian media and Telegram channels. Explosions were heard in Rostov,
Azov, Taganrog, Novoshakhtinsk, Mines, Novocherkassk, Aksai and Yeysk.”

It isn’t yet clear whether the strike on Taganrog Air Base was so loud
that it was heard in all of those locations, or if there were strikes on
various locations in Rostov.

UPDATE: As it turns out, the video above is actually from Ukraine’s
strike last month on Saki Air Base in Crimea. So I’m less sure what was
it in the Taganrog area, but it was heard for miles.

In Ukraine’s north, something is up in the Russian city of Belgorod.

Long lines of cars can be seen fleeing the city.

Belgorod is about as far from the Russia-Ukraine border as Kharkiv is,
and this isn’t the first time Ukraine has struck there. But with Russian
forces cleared out of Kharkiv Oblast, there might not be much in the way
of Russian forces left to defend Belgorod.

With Kharkiv basically back in Kyiv’s possession, the battle turns east
toward Donetsk without pause.

Due to the speed of Ukraine’s advance and the heavily forested terrain,
Russian troops have left behind untold ammunition stores and abandoned
countless vehicles.

When the roads are covered by the other guy’s HIMARS missiles, you stay
off the roads and flee on foot.

It appears the greatest danger Ukraine faces is overextending and
exposing themselves to local ambushes or even an encirclement. But
unless and until the Russian Army gets its act back together, the risk
seems low. Even the Air Force is suffering increased difficulties in
recent days.

None of these developments are lost on Russia’s politicians or public
figures.

PJ Media’s own Rick Moran reported on Saturday that “five Russian
municipal deputies from St. Petersburg have been arrested after
publishing a request to the Duma to have Vladimir Putin arrested and
charged with treason.”

Under Russian law, those five deputies could face the death penalty —
but they won’t be alone.

On Monday, 20 more municipal deputies from both Moscow and St.
Petersburg signed a similar petition.

“We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of
President V. V. Putin are detrimental to the future of Russia and its
citizens.”

“We demand Vladimir Putin’s resignation as President of the Russian
Federation!” reads the text of the petition, signed by about 20 deputies.

Torstrem emphasized that “the text of the petition is laconic” and does
not “discredit anyone.

As I write this, there have been no reports of further arrests.

Further down the political food chain lie Russia’s milbloggers — but not
that much further down.

For our VIPs: The Pity of War: Ukraine Edition

Milbloggers serve an important role in how the Kremlin shapes narrative
and public perceptions about all things military. As semi-independent,
pro-Russia voices, their words carry weight with the Russian public.

One group of milbloggers I follow is Russian With Attitude, because they
provide timely and generally accurate updates of events on the ground —
served up with a bit of attitude.

Today they’re reduced to lashing out at Ukraine in general.

Ukraine War Update

I used the RWA guys as an example, but the negative feelings are
widespread in the milblogging community:

Russian milbloggers voiced concern that this Ukrainian counterattack
seeks to cut ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Russian rear areas
in Kupyansk and Izyum, which would allow Ukrainian troops to isolate the
Russian groupings in these areas and retake large swaths of territory.
These milbloggers used largely panicked and despondent tones,
acknowledged significant Ukrainian gains, and claimed that the Ukrainian
counteroffensive in the south may be a distraction from the ongoing
actions in Kharkiv Oblast, which they name as the main Ukrainian effort.

That was from four days ago, before Kyiv’s Kharkiv counteroffensive had
realized even half the gains we see today. There’s no reason to believe
their mood has brightened any since then.

Think of all those Russian soldiers, thrown into the meat grinder. The
ending that Vladimir Putin deserves is his own military giving him the
Full Ceaușescu Treatment.

But I have the feeling that however this stupid, needless war ends, it
won’t end soon -certainly not soon enough.

Stephen Green
Steve launched VodkaPundit on a well-planned whim in 2002, and has been
with PJ Media since its launch in 2005. He served as one of the hosts of
PJTV, a pioneer in internet broadcasting. He also cohosts "Right Angle"
with Bill Whittle and Scott Ott at BillWhittle.com. He lives with his
wife and sons in the wooded hills of Monument, Colorado, where he enjoys
the occasional adult beverage.
Read more by Stephen Green
Tags:

a425couple <a425couple@hotmail.com> wrote in
news:NbOTK.23272$ocy7.10613@fx38.iad:

> On 09/10/2022 03:02 PM, a425couple wrote:
>> On 09/10/2022 12:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
>>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>>> feeling OK?
>>>
>>
>> I think they may be feeling a bit green around the gills.
>>
>
> A few months ago, this would have seemed impossible.

Except to Ukrainians.
>
> from
> https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2022/09/12/ukraine-strikes-multip
> le-targets-inside-russia-more-deputies-call-for-putins-ouster-n16
> 28687?utm_source=pjmedia&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_pm&bcid
> =893610eff4e6a5bc8df6b64626036cd266c0b90a528f48a482db66f5495cbcc4
> &recip=22426602
>
> Ukraine Strikes Multiple Targets INSIDE Russia, More Deputies
> Call for Putin's Ouster
> BY STEPHEN GREEN SEP 12, 2022 1:53 PM ET
>

And as of today, Putin is cancelling some very important meetings,
and has sequestered himself in one of his hideaways.

Speculation is running somewhat in the direction of his preparing
to nuke Ukraine. I am increasingly of the opinion that if he tries,
one of his bodyguards, who has relatives in Ukraine (possibly in a
POW camp) will put a bullet in the back of his head (though
traditional execution of treason would be using an expended shell
casing, pounded in with a pistol butt, because a traitor isn't
worth the cost of a live round).

We're in the end game now.

--
Terry Austin

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.

Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote in
news:tfo07i$2auvd$1@dont-email.me:

> On 9/12/2022 9:52 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>
>> This shows both why Russia is a bit paranoid toward its
>> neighbors. Particularly given how Russia has treated its
>> neighbors in the past.
>
> The Russians (or at least its leaders) don't seem to understand
> that their treatment of their neighbors is _WHY_ their neighbors
> don't like them enough for Russia to have a reason to be wary of
> them. So Russia keeps antagonizing their neighbors perpetuating
> the cycle.
>
To be honest, most of their neighors aren't that much different than
Russia. Just smaller.

--
Terry Austin

Proof that Alan Baker is a liar and a fool, and even stupider than
Lynn:
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.

On Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 1:48:46 PM UTC-6, James Nicoll wrote:
> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
> feeling OK?

I'm very happy that Ukrainian forces are achieving such success.

However, Russia is so much bigger than Ukraine, and it has nuclear
weapons, so I fear that it still may have another rabbit to pull out of
its hat.

For example, it may try to make Ukraine's victory Pyrrhic by constantly
launching missiles into Ukraine to kill random civilians, disrupt power
and water, and so on, for the next few years. Then there are all the
hostages Russia has apparently taken.

That Putin finds a prosperous and free Ukraine intolerable is, I think,
a reasonable statement. Even if I heard it from the unreasonable
intellectual guru of the incel movement in a "short" on YouTube.

Of course, throwing Russia's available conventional military capability
into a meatgrinder - not just the expendable first wave troops, but
everything they had to spare from essential border defense - is not a
rational act. Putin, however, has taken careful precautions against being
assassinated by anyone, and this includes by his... surviving... generals.

So he is very likely to take his vengeance on Ukraine for raining on his
parade, one way or another, and the world will be helpless to interfere
because doing so would start a nuclear World War III. (Of course, it would
actually be Putin that would be starting that war; the problem is that the
political leaders of the West, including Joe Biden, seem to have misplaced
their copies of Herman Kahn's books, so they just don't _do_ brinkmanship
any more. One Donald J. Trump, of course, will claim that *he* would stand
up to Putin... the guy whose oligarchs bailed him out of his most recent
bankruptcy. I, personally, do not find that credible, and instead expect that
he would end up turning the United States into another Belarus.)

The Ukraine can't win in the only way that would really count - obtain the
*unconditional surrender* of Russia, and either capture Putin and put
him on trial, kill him, or be unable to do either by reason of his committing
suicide in the ruins of his mad dream of conquest - like his infamous
predecessor.

As long as *that* can't be done, Russia can retain the ability to make life
miserable for Ukrainians in ways that conserve the resources which are
now scarce for it. Of course, keeping such a war going forever is an
insane act, but so was the invasion in the first place.

John Savard

On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 1:23:33 PM UTC-6, pete...@gmail.com wrote:

> Stalin, Putin, Andrew Jackson,and Quaddie would happily consider 'fixing' this
> with forced migration. Most would not.

I wouldn't fix it with forced migration of Finns or Sami into Karelia. They can
take their time, and go into the free and empty land at their convenience.

Forced migration of the Russians _out_, however, seems to me to be essential
in order to restore the land to its rightful owners. Land means food production,
and hence carrying capacity for population. So letting aggression stand does not
seem to me to be an option.

However, that can still be conducted in an orderly and humane manner, in years
rather than weeks.

It is precisely *because* _Lebensraum_ has value that Hitler's theft of it from
Poland was wrong. I don't really get the argument that the best way to oppose
Hitlerism is to pretend that Lebensraum is of no value.

As the usual argument is to point at the success of Japan and the United Kingdom,
though, I suppose that if indeed moving populations is out, one *could* compensate
a country for loss of territory... by making it able to support a larger population through
locating valuable export industries in it. So one gets TSMC to put a major fab in
Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania each, through an extension of the CHIPS Act.

Like some other technology won't eventually succeed microelectronics as the next
big thing, or like nothing could possibly disrupt international trade.

But perhaps there still _are_ other options. To at least _reduce_ the number of people
to be moved around, instead of giving Karelia back to Finland, just give it, and other countries
from which Russia stole land, a huge chunk of Siberia which is rich in natural resources.
Of course, there is the question of logistics. How effective has Russia been in exploiting
Siberian resources?

John Savard

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 4:15:14 PM UTC-6, a425couple wrote:

> But I have the feeling that however this stupid, needless war ends, it
> won’t end soon -certainly not soon enough.

That is also what worries me.

John Savard

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 1:50:58 PM UTC-6, pete...@gmail.com wrote:

> The only thing Russia can do to protect itself is to push out its sphere of influence
> until it reaches more defensible territory. It had that control during the USSR days,
> with Eastern Europe under its sway, Finland neutralized, and the Baltics part of its
> own territory. Plus pushing down to Turkey.
>
> Russia will continue to try to turn its neighbors into client states until it is no longer
> able to do so. By diplomacy if possible, by war if not.

There's one other thing Russia could do to protect itself. It could send spies into
the United States to find out how to build nuclear weapons. Then no one would
dare to invade it, even if the invasion routes were easy.
Why, it could even invade a neighboring country, and threaten the rest of the
world with nuclear attack if it interfered.
Oh, they've already *done* that.

This is what makes this war seem so utterly insane. The very means that Russia
used to be able to get away with starting that war without being wiped off the face
of the Earth by an invasion from NATO forces... is why the strategic goal the invasion
is supposedly in aid of is utterly meaningless.

> Russia delenda est.

But that's not an option. They've got nukes. And in any case, genocide is out of
fashion.
However, if somehow it could collapse internally, and then be put under American
occupation until its culture changes the way the cultures of Germany and Japan
were changed, that would be destroyed enough to achieve the aim.
Some are pessimistic, and think that the flaws of the Russian culture are more
ingrained than those of Germany and Japan. While I don't wish to let ideology
lead me into naive optimism, I am still reluctant to adopt a theory that Russians
are racially inferior, instead of simply having a history of bad leadership due to
their circumstances, geographical and otherwise.

John Savard

On Mon, 12 Sep 2022 12:10:41 -0700, Dimensional Traveler
<dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:

>On 9/12/2022 9:52 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>
>> This shows both why Russia is a bit paranoid toward its neighbors.
>> Particularly given how Russia has treated its neighbors in the past.
>
>The Russians (or at least its leaders) don't seem to understand that
>their treatment of their neighbors is _WHY_ their neighbors don't like
>them enough for Russia to have a reason to be wary of them. So Russia
>keeps antagonizing their neighbors perpetuating the cycle.

One of the many disadvantages of racism -- to racists.
--
"In this connexion, unquestionably the most significant
development was the disintegration, under Christian
influence, of classical conceptions of the family and
of family right."

On Mon, 12 Sep 2022 12:50:55 -0700 (PDT), "pete...@gmail.com"
<petertrei@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:10:46 PM UTC-4, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>> On 9/12/2022 9:52 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>> >
>> > This shows both why Russia is a bit paranoid toward its neighbors.
>> > Particularly given how Russia has treated its neighbors in the past.
>> The Russians (or at least its leaders) don't seem to understand that
>> their treatment of their neighbors is _WHY_ their neighbors don't like
>> them enough for Russia to have a reason to be wary of them. So Russia
>> keeps antagonizing their neighbors perpetuating the cycle.
>
>Russia is paranoid, but there's reasons.
>
>Russia has been invaded A LOT. In the 20th century, 9 times:
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia
>
>That's a historical fact, and looms large in Russian planning. For them its not
>'Will they invade?', but 'When will the next invasion be? 'A big part of the
> problem is that Moscow and most of western Russia sit on an open plain,
>without any significant natural barriers for hundreds of miles. Its under a
>7 hour drive from Ukraine to Moscow. Its borders are inherently not secure.
>
>The only thing Russia can do to protect itself is to push out its sphere of influence
>until it reaches more defensible territory. It had that control during the USSR days,
>with Eastern Europe under its sway, Finland neutralized, and the Baltics part of its
>own territory. Plus pushing down to Turkey.
>
>Russia will continue to try to turn its neighbors into client states until it is no longer
>able to do so. By diplomacy if possible, by war if not.

Maybe they should take a hint from Trump and build a Wall.

Or figure out how to bobble themselves ...

>Russia delenda est.

That's a bit extreme.
--
"In this connexion, unquestionably the most significant
development was the disintegration, under Christian
influence, of classical conceptions of the family and
of family right."

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:50:58 PM UTC-4, pete...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:10:46 PM UTC-4, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
> > On 9/12/2022 9:52 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
> > >
> > > This shows both why Russia is a bit paranoid toward its neighbors.
> > > Particularly given how Russia has treated its neighbors in the past.
> > The Russians (or at least its leaders) don't seem to understand that
> > their treatment of their neighbors is _WHY_ their neighbors don't like
> > them enough for Russia to have a reason to be wary of them. So Russia
> > keeps antagonizing their neighbors perpetuating the cycle.
> Russia is paranoid, but there's reasons.
>
> Russia has been invaded A LOT. In the 20th century, 9 times:
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia [snip]

It depends on how you define "invasion" and "Russia". For example,
the linked list included "Polish–Soviet War (1918/9–1921), the
Polish occupation of Belarus and West Ukraine." What happened
was that non-Russian parts of the Russian Empire took advantage
of the collapse of the monarchy in March 1917 and demanded
autonomy and then independence. Soon after Communists
(then "Bolsheviks") seized power in Russia in November 1917,
negotiations with Ukraine broke down and the Bolsheviks
invaded Ukraine. A few months later they were ousted by the
Germans, who soon installed a puppet Ukrainian government.

After the Armistice in November 1918, Germany had to
withdraw from Ukraine and the Bolsheviks re-invaded.
Ukrainian forces found themselves fighting Poles in the West,
Bolsheviks in the East and White Russians (anti-Bolshevik
Russians who wanted to restore the Empire) in the South. The
Poles and the White Army were victorious for a time. Then the
White Army marched on Moscow in late 1919 and was soundly
defeated. The Bolsheviks re-re-invaded Ukraine and drove the
remnants of the White Army out of Ukraine (except for Crimea.)

With Bolsheviks in control of most of Ukraine, Ukrainian forces
agreed to an alliance with Poland. Together they occupied
much of Ukraine before the Bolsheviks pushed them back and
marched all the way to Warsaw, hoping to install a Communist
government in Poland. They were in turn defeated and had to
retreat to Ukraine. (The remnants of the White Army still in
Crimea took advantage of the conflict to re-occupy some parts
of southern Ukraine before being driven out by the Bolsheviks
and fleeing Russia and Ukraine for good.)

This is a vastly simplified version of events, but it goes to show
that "invasion" is a relative term.

On Tuesday, September 13, 2022 at 3:00:54 PM UTC-4, Ahasuerus wrote:
> On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:50:58 PM UTC-4, pete...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:10:46 PM UTC-4, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
> > > On 9/12/2022 9:52 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
> > > >
> > > > This shows both why Russia is a bit paranoid toward its neighbors.
> > > > Particularly given how Russia has treated its neighbors in the past..
> > > The Russians (or at least its leaders) don't seem to understand that
> > > their treatment of their neighbors is _WHY_ their neighbors don't like
> > > them enough for Russia to have a reason to be wary of them. So Russia
> > > keeps antagonizing their neighbors perpetuating the cycle.
> > Russia is paranoid, but there's reasons.
> >
> > Russia has been invaded A LOT. In the 20th century, 9 times:
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia [snip]
>
> It depends on how you define "invasion" and "Russia". For example,
> the linked list included "Polish–Soviet War (1918/9–1921), the
> Polish occupation of Belarus and West Ukraine." What happened
> was that non-Russian parts of the Russian Empire took advantage
> of the collapse of the monarchy in March 1917 and demanded
> autonomy and then independence. Soon after Communists
> (then "Bolsheviks") seized power in Russia in November 1917,
> negotiations with Ukraine broke down and the Bolsheviks
> invaded Ukraine. A few months later they were ousted by the
> Germans, who soon installed a puppet Ukrainian government.
>
> After the Armistice in November 1918, Germany had to
> withdraw from Ukraine and the Bolsheviks re-invaded.
> Ukrainian forces found themselves fighting Poles in the West,
> Bolsheviks in the East and White Russians (anti-Bolshevik
> Russians who wanted to restore the Empire) in the South. The
> Poles and the White Army were victorious for a time. Then the
> White Army marched on Moscow in late 1919 and was soundly
> defeated. The Bolsheviks re-re-invaded Ukraine and drove the
> remnants of the White Army out of Ukraine (except for Crimea.)
>
> With Bolsheviks in control of most of Ukraine, Ukrainian forces
> agreed to an alliance with Poland. Together they occupied
> much of Ukraine before the Bolsheviks pushed them back and
> marched all the way to Warsaw, hoping to install a Communist
> government in Poland. They were in turn defeated and had to
> retreat to Ukraine. (The remnants of the White Army still in
> Crimea took advantage of the conflict to re-occupy some parts
> of southern Ukraine before being driven out by the Bolsheviks
> and fleeing Russia and Ukraine for good.)
>
> This is a vastly simplified version of events, but it goes to show
> that "invasion" is a relative term.

Agreed. But that doesn't take away from the point that 'They're going
to invade us" isn't just paranoia on the Russian's part; its the hard won
experience of centuries, going right back to the Mongol invasion and
occupation (which did a lot to form Russian cultural norms).

This is why Russians regard NATO on their border as an existential
threat, rather than just an influence battle. Russia may react in ways
we'd regard is irrational if it believes its losing.

pt

On 9/10/2022 2:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
> feeling OK?

“Putin’s Narrowing Options" by Patrick J. Buchanan
https://buchanan.org/blog/putins-narrowing-options-159644

“Early in this war, Russia’s hawks talked openly of the possible use of
tactical nuclear weapons. That talk has begun anew.”

Don't stand next to the guy throwing fecal matter at an armed man.

Lynn

Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
>On 9/10/2022 2:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>> feeling OK?
>
>“Putin’s Narrowing Options" by Patrick J. Buchanan
> https://buchanan.org/blog/putins-narrowing-options-159644

Pat Buchanan isn't a noted military analyst. I would take his
opinions with a grain ... never mind, I'd never take his opinion
on anything, period.

On 9/16/2022 5:17 PM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
>> On 9/10/2022 2:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
>>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>>> feeling OK?
>>
>> “Putin’s Narrowing Options" by Patrick J. Buchanan
>> https://buchanan.org/blog/putins-narrowing-options-159644
>
> Pat Buchanan isn't a noted military analyst. I would take his
> opinions with a grain ... never mind, I'd never take his opinion
> on anything, period.

Nukes are like hand grenades, you don't have to be precise. I'll take
Pat's opinion any day. At the end of the day, it is an opinion like any
one elses. And it is a fact that Putin is sitting in isolation with
24,000 ??? nukes under his control.

"A desperate Vladimir Putin is a dangerous Vladimir Putin, and there are
signs Putin’s situation in Ukraine may be becoming desperate."

"The longer this war goes on, and the sooner the Russian bleeding
becomes intolerable to Putin, the more likely it is that he will
escalate, rather than capitulate and accept defeat and humiliation for
his country and himself, leading to his removal from power."

"Again, a desperate Putin is a dangerous Putin."

Lynn

On 9/16/2022 5:37 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
> On 9/16/2022 5:17 PM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
>>> On 9/10/2022 2:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
>>>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>>>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>>>> feeling OK?
>>>
>>> “Putin’s Narrowing Options" by Patrick J. Buchanan
>>>     https://buchanan.org/blog/putins-narrowing-options-159644
>>
>> Pat Buchanan isn't a noted military analyst. I would take his
>> opinions with a grain ... never mind, I'd never take his opinion
>> on anything, period.
>
> Nukes are like hand grenades, you don't have to be precise.  I'll take
> Pat's opinion any day.  At the end of the day, it is an opinion like any
> one elses.  And it is a fact that Putin is sitting in isolation with
> 24,000 ??? nukes under his control.
>
> "A desperate Vladimir Putin is a dangerous Vladimir Putin, and there are
> signs Putin’s situation in Ukraine may be becoming desperate."
>
> "The longer this war goes on, and the sooner the Russian bleeding
> becomes intolerable to Putin, the more likely it is that he will
> escalate, rather than capitulate and accept defeat and humiliation for
> his country and himself, leading to his removal from power."
>
> "Again, a desperate Putin is a dangerous Putin."
>
> Lynn
>
>

So because of that, we should have--what, turned our weapons on "the"
Ukraine ourselves and made it clear that because Putin's demand is that
the Ukraine either be a Russian ally or a Russian oblast, that it indeed
needs to suck it up for the rest of the world?

--
Chrysi Cat
1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
Transgoddess, quick to anger
Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!

In article <LYFVK.131647$IRd5.7102@fx10.iad>,
Chrysi Cat <Chrysicat@gmail.com> wrote:
>On 9/16/2022 5:37 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>> On 9/16/2022 5:17 PM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
>>>> On 9/10/2022 2:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
>>>>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>>>>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>>>>> feeling OK?
>>>>
>>>> “Putin’s Narrowing Options" by Patrick J. Buchanan
>>>>     https://buchanan.org/blog/putins-narrowing-options-159644
>>>
>>> Pat Buchanan isn't a noted military analyst. I would take his
>>> opinions with a grain ... never mind, I'd never take his opinion
>>> on anything, period.
>>
>> Nukes are like hand grenades, you don't have to be precise. 
>I'll take
>> Pat's opinion any day.  At the end of the day, it is an
>opinion like any
>> one elses.  And it is a fact that Putin is sitting in isolation with
>> 24,000 ??? nukes under his control.
>>
>> "A desperate Vladimir Putin is a dangerous Vladimir Putin, and
>there are
>> signs Putin’s situation in Ukraine may be becoming desperate."
>>
>> "The longer this war goes on, and the sooner the Russian bleeding
>> becomes intolerable to Putin, the more likely it is that he will
>> escalate, rather than capitulate and accept defeat and humiliation for
>> his country and himself, leading to his removal from power."
>>
>> "Again, a desperate Putin is a dangerous Putin."
>>
>> Lynn
>>
>>
>
>So because of that, we should have--what, turned our weapons on "the"
>Ukraine ourselves and made it clear that because Putin's demand is that
>the Ukraine either be a Russian ally or a Russian oblast, that it indeed
>needs to suck it up for the rest of the world?
>
As a compromise, could the US not simply cede its republicans to
Russia?
--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

On Sat, 10 Sep 2022 19:48:41 -0000 (UTC), jdnicoll@panix.com (James
Nicoll) wrote:

>I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>"Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>feeling OK?

This might be expanded to a more general concern: I was greeted with
13 posts today!
--
"In this connexion, unquestionably the most significant
development was the disintegration, under Christian
influence, of classical conceptions of the family and
of family right."

On 9/18/2022 9:05 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
> On Sat, 10 Sep 2022 19:48:41 -0000 (UTC), jdnicoll@panix.com (James
> Nicoll) wrote:
>
>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>> feeling OK?
>
> This might be expanded to a more general concern: I was greeted with
> 13 posts today!

It's a Usenet newsgroup 20 years at least after the death of Usenet was
proclaimed.

I'm impressed it lasted as long as it did, though I'd still love to see
it revived.

--
Chrysi Cat
1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
Transgoddess, quick to anger
Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!

On 9/18/2022 9:39 AM, James Nicoll wrote:
> In article <LYFVK.131647$IRd5.7102@fx10.iad>,
> Chrysi Cat <Chrysicat@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On 9/16/2022 5:37 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>> On 9/16/2022 5:17 PM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>> On 9/10/2022 2:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
>>>>>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>>>>>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>>>>>> feeling OK?
>>>>>
>>>>> “Putin’s Narrowing Options" by Patrick J. Buchanan
>>>>>     https://buchanan.org/blog/putins-narrowing-options-159644
>>>>
>>>> Pat Buchanan isn't a noted military analyst. I would take his
>>>> opinions with a grain ... never mind, I'd never take his opinion
>>>> on anything, period.
>>>
>>> Nukes are like hand grenades, you don't have to be precise.
>> I'll take
>>> Pat's opinion any day.  At the end of the day, it is an
>> opinion like any
>>> one elses.  And it is a fact that Putin is sitting in isolation with
>>> 24,000 ??? nukes under his control.
>>>
>>> "A desperate Vladimir Putin is a dangerous Vladimir Putin, and
>> there are
>>> signs Putin’s situation in Ukraine may be becoming desperate."
>>>
>>> "The longer this war goes on, and the sooner the Russian bleeding
>>> becomes intolerable to Putin, the more likely it is that he will
>>> escalate, rather than capitulate and accept defeat and humiliation for
>>> his country and himself, leading to his removal from power."
>>>
>>> "Again, a desperate Putin is a dangerous Putin."
>>>
>>> Lynn
>>>
>>>
>>
>> So because of that, we should have--what, turned our weapons on "the"
>> Ukraine ourselves and made it clear that because Putin's demand is that
>> the Ukraine either be a Russian ally or a Russian oblast, that it indeed
>> needs to suck it up for the rest of the world?
>>
> As a compromise, could the US not simply cede its republicans to
> Russia?

How about we, the USA, cede Canada to Russia !

Lynn

On 9/12/2022 2:50 PM, pete...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:10:46 PM UTC-4, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>> On 9/12/2022 9:52 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>
>>> This shows both why Russia is a bit paranoid toward its neighbors.
>>> Particularly given how Russia has treated its neighbors in the past.
>> The Russians (or at least its leaders) don't seem to understand that
>> their treatment of their neighbors is _WHY_ their neighbors don't like
>> them enough for Russia to have a reason to be wary of them. So Russia
>> keeps antagonizing their neighbors perpetuating the cycle.
>
> Russia is paranoid, but there's reasons.
>
> Russia has been invaded A LOT. In the 20th century, 9 times:
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia
>
> That's a historical fact, and looms large in Russian planning. For them its not
> 'Will they invade?', but 'When will the next invasion be? 'A big part of the
> problem is that Moscow and most of western Russia sit on an open plain,
> without any significant natural barriers for hundreds of miles. Its under a
> 7 hour drive from Ukraine to Moscow. Its borders are inherently not secure.
>
> The only thing Russia can do to protect itself is to push out its sphere of influence
> until it reaches more defensible territory. It had that control during the USSR days,
> with Eastern Europe under its sway, Finland neutralized, and the Baltics part of its
> own territory. Plus pushing down to Turkey.
>
> Russia will continue to try to turn its neighbors into client states until it is no longer
> able to do so. By diplomacy if possible, by war if not.
>
> Russia delenda est.
>
> pt

Russia can always turn its neighbors into lakes of fire.

Of course, it is said, you nuke your neighbor, you nuke yourself.

Lynn

On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 12:22:16 PM UTC-4, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> William Hyde <wthyd...@gmail.com> writes:
> >On Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 3:48:46 PM UTC-4, James Nicoll wrote:
> >> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the=20
> >> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys=20
> >> feeling OK?=20
> >
> >My first thought was that the Russian invasion was not nearly large enough.=
> > I was thinking in terms of WWII numbers, where nobody would think of atta=
> >cking a country the size of Ukraine with less than double that. My second =
> >thought was that Ukraine had more veterans than Russia, courtesy of Russia =
> >itself in the Donbas.
>
> My first thought was the Russian Military had not been paying attention to
> military developments in the years since the end of WWII. While the
> US has fought four major conflicts directly (Korea, Vietnam, Gulf I and Gulf II)
> in those years and have developed the military doctrine (and logistics) to support them,
> the Russians have not fought a major campaign against a quality opponent
> since 1945. They don't have the logistics chains, the ex-soviet equipment
> is poorly maintained and almost useless on the modern battlefield and their
> lack of non-commissioned officers is crippling (hence the early loss of
> a half dozen or more Generals).
>

I took courses on Russian history and politics on my way to my B.A., back
when the Cold War was still on. That's when becoming an expert on the
Soviet Union seemed like a plausible career track for a young politics/
history student.

I remembered that Ukrainians were promoted to Red Army non-com ranks
out-of-proportion to their numbers in the USSR. I found an old RAND study
that supports this view.

[quote]

According to all of our respondents, Ukrainians constitute a majority, perhaps
a clear majority, among the Soviet sergeants. In this they appear to
be grossly overrepresented, not only in proportion to their share of
the total Soviet population but also with respect to the Ukrainian
share of the Slavic population. Our interviewees advanced several
explanations for this phenomenon. First, a considerable number of
respondents attributed Ukrainian predominance among the non-coms to
an alleged national affinity for the military service and careerism.
Again, the attitudes of the respondents, of whom only one was a Ukrain-
ian, revealed some deep-rooted, if surprising to us, national prejudices.
These are some examples

.....

The Ukrainians, more than anybody else, strove
for promotion. For most of the people in the
army the greatest prize is to be able to get
a leave. Not so for the Ukrainians. They would
do everything to get promoted first because
power over other soldiers seems to be very im-
portant for them.

.....

About 75 percent of the non-commissioned officers
in the army are of Ukrainian origin. They all
reenlist when their normal term expires. They were
despicable people much hated and feared by the
soldiers

....

[/quote] - A RAND NOTE
THE ETHNIC FACTOR IN THE SOVIET ARMED FORCES:
PRELIMINARY FINDINGS
S. Enders Wimbush and Alex Alexiev
May 1980

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA118421.pdf

Ukraine being a separate, sovereign state must have caused a drop in the
competence of Russia's non-coms.

> The Russian air force is untrained, unpracticed and has an abysmal combat readiness rate;
> they have only one of their soi disant "stealth" fighters, and of their
> 16 TU-160 bombers, only about eight are combat-ready; thus they don't want
> to risk them against Ukrainian air defences.
>
> It's no wonder that NATO frightens Putin.

The late Cold War crack that Russia was a third world country with nuclear weapons
wasn't quite accurate. They did and do have a space program, but so do India and
China, sating to when both countries were less prosperous. We in the West have our
poor and undeveloped communities, also. But this is a hallmark of the modern nation-
state, or multi-national empires and federations. Whatever is deemed necessary for
the defining quality of the State - the assumed monopoly on the lawful initiation of force
within or without its borders - gets funded, to the extent that that other states and its
own populace believe a threat of force. Whether one should believe said threats after
Russia's performance in Ukraine or not is a good question. If people think the emperor
has no clothes there might be instability. The threats, however veiled, to use ABC weapons
can be seen as an attempt to reinforce the facade.

Caveat: though I keep up with the news, my academic study of these issues dates
to the 1970s, when I was writing about MBFR* talks between NATO and the then-extant
Warsaw Pact. My professor criticized my paper for being on too contemporary a subject,
though I got a good grade.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_and_Balanced_Force_Reductions

--
Kevin R