I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
"Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
feeling OK?
--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
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On 09/10/2022 12:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
> feeling OK?
>

I think they may be feeling a bit green around the gills.

from
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/09/10/it-will-be-like-an-avalanche-ukraine-seizes-key-strategic-city-russia-pulling-back-n495551

“It will be like an avalanche": Ukraine seizes key strategic city;
Russia "pulling back"? UPDATE: NYT reports Izyum in Ukraine control
ED MORRISSEY Sep 10, 2022 11:31 AM ET

AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky
Has a Russian collapse along its eastern line begun? When it became
clear that Russia’s attempt to decapitate Ukraine’s government by taking
Kyiv failed, analysts noted that the clock had started on Russian
stamina for its invasion. Some predicted that Vladimir Putin would have
to either achieve victory in some overwhelming fashion as early as
September or face ruin as the invasion exhausted its resources.

Well, September has arrived, and so has a multi-front Ukrainian
counter-offensive. And it appears that the collapse may have started in
Kupyansk, a key strategic position that could put the Russian eastern
line in danger:

Ukrainian forces seized most of a strategically vital city in
northeastern Ukraine on Saturday, cutting the main supply line to
thousands of Russian troops near the eastern city of Izyum and marking
the biggest strategic gain Ukraine has made since the start of an
offensive this week.

Photos from Russian and Ukrainian channels on Telegram showed Ukrainian
soldiers holding the country’s flag in front of the city hall in
Kupyansk, and Kremlin-loyal Russian military correspondents said
Moscow’s forces had pulled back across the Oskil River to the eastern
part of the city.

Ukraine’s control over the critical infrastructure of the city and the
success of this week’s advance signal to Western backers the
effectiveness of weapons the U.S. and Europe has given to Kyiv.

The seizure of this city may have doomed thousands of Russian troops in
positions gained in late spring:

The Kupyansk rail and road hub located in the western half of the city
was the last artery connecting Russia with thousands of troops on
territory that represented the bulk of Russia’s gains in May and June.
Ukraine’s control of the road network also threatens Russia’s hold on
Izyum, a city Moscow had planned to use to launch further attacks on
Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donetsk region in the country’s east.

The U.K. Defense Ministry said Saturday that Izyum was becoming
increasingly isolated. Analysts say Ukraine is aiming to encircle a
pocket of Russian troops around Izyum east of the Oskil River.

“Izyum will soon be ours,” said a Ukrainian commander fighting near the
city.

The new offensive has captured a lot more than just Kupyansk (also
spelled Kupiansk in some reports). Ukraine claims that it has reclaimed
more than 2500 square kilometers in and around Kharkiv Oblast since the
beginning of the month. ISW reports that significant numbers of POWs
have been transported out of the area.

The Kremlin has been uncharacteristically silent about these
developments, but there’s a sense of panic now. They’re shifting the
same units back to the Kharkiv theater that they shipped to Kherson to
deal with the counteroffensive there, and that’s getting notice by
Russian milbloggers who have been reliable in their propaganda until
recently:

Ukrainian forces may collapse Russian positions around Izyum if they
sever Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) north and south of
Izyum. Ukrainian forces continued to advance on Kupyansk and towards
Izyum on September 9, and are undertaking measures to isolate the
Russian Izyum grouping of forces. If Ukrainians are successful in
severing the Russian GLOCs, then they will have an opportunity to create
a cauldron around Izyum and collapse a major portion of the Russian
positions in northeastern Ukraine.

The Kremlin is rushing resources to the Kharkiv City-Izyum line in an
attempt to halt Ukrainian advances after Ukrainian forces achieved
remarkable operational surprise. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)
and Kremlin wires published footage of Russian military convoys
reportedly en route to reinforce Kupyansk, Izyum, and the general
Kharkiv direction but did not acknowledge Ukrainian successes in the
area.[3] While Russian milbloggers largely welcomed the reports of
reinforcements, some criticized the Kremlin for first relocating units
away from the Kharkiv City-Izyum line, only to deploy them again to the
same location.[4] Russian forces have been redeploying out of southern
Kharkiv Oblast to reinforce Donetsk Oblast and the Southern Axis to
address the threat of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast and
to resume offensive operations west of Donetsk City for several weeks.[5]

And ISW made this prescient call late yesterday:

The successful Ukrainian counteroffensive is upending the Kremlin’s
effort to make Izyum an economy of force area. Some milbloggers also
noted that September 10 will be a decisive day if Russians are unable to
generate reserves and capable command in time.

The loss of the rail head in Kupyansk would make today a critical moment
in the war indeed. And that would explain what little Russia is saying
about its Kharkiv line, which is an acknowledgment of defeat:

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Saturday that it is pulling back forces
from two areas in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region where a Ukrainian counter
offensive has made significant advances in the past week.

Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said the troops would be
regrouped from the Balakliya and Izyum areas to the Donetsk region.
Izyum was a major base for Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.

Konashenkov said the move is being made “in order to achieve the stated
goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbas,’” one of the
eastern Ukraine regions that Russia has declared sovereign.

The claim of pullback to concentrate on Donetsk is similiar to the
justification Russia gave for pulling back its forces from the Kyiv
region earlier this year.

Remember what excuse Moscow used for that “regrouping”? It was to focus
its attention on the south of Ukraine, especially Kharkiv and Kherson —
the two points between which Russia has flip-flopped resources to avoid
getting pushed off its lines. If all they’re able to do now is
“regroup,” that makes it look like Russia’s playing a shell game with
its exhausted resources in Ukraine.

But it might be even worse for Russia, CNN reported later in the
morning. Ukraine now claims that its troops may have penetrated as far
as the outskirts of Izyum itself:

The Associated Press notes the tactical surprise Ukrainians achieved in
this counter-offensive still remains in effect. British analysts
marveled at the “economy of force” used by Russia to defend this vital
strategic link:

Earlier Saturday, the British Defense Ministry told reporters it
believed the Ukrainians had advanced as much as 50 kilometers (30 miles)
south of Kharkiv, and described Russian forces around Izyum as
“increasingly isolated.”

“Russian forces were likely taken by surprise. The sector was only
lightly held and Ukrainian units have captured or surrounded several
towns,” the British military said, adding that the loss of Kupiansk
would greatly affect Russian supply lines in the area.

Ukraine has kept up the pressure in the south as well:

The fighting in eastern Ukraine comes amid an ongoing offensive around
Kherson in the south. Analysts suggest Russia may have taken soldiers
from the east to reinforce around Kherson, offering the Ukrainians the
opportunity to strike a weakened front line.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the television channel
Ukraina that the Russians had no food or fuel for their troops in the
area as Kyiv had cut off their supply lines.

“It will be like an avalanche,” he said, predicting a Russian fallback.
“One line of defense will shake and it will fall.”

That matches up pretty well with the post-Kyiv assessment of Russian
capabilities. The first weeks of the war showed Russia’s deficits on
leadership, tactics, and morale. The next few weeks showed how poorly
their materiel performed in the field, but they still had the tactical
advantages of quantity. Those are now being rapidly exhausted, leaving
Russia with nothing except an overstretched line facing ferocious and
well-armed opponents looking to regain their own land.

One line of defense for Russia is more than just shaking. And it looks
like it may fall right on schedule.

Update: If this is true, then the Russians are in real trouble:

Ukrainian forces entered the key Russian military stronghold of Izium on
Saturday, continuing their rapid advance across the northeast and
igniting a dramatic new phase in the more than six-month war.

“Izium was liberated today,” the city’s mayor, Valeriy Marchenko, said
in an interview. While he was not yet in the city himself, he said that
he was in contact with the police and that emergency services were
working to clear it of possible hazards before residents could return.

On Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 3:48:46 PM UTC-4, James Nicoll wrote:
> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
> feeling OK?

My first thought was that the Russian invasion was not nearly large enough. I was thinking in terms of WWII numbers, where nobody would think of attacking a country the size of Ukraine with less than double that. My second thought was that Ukraine had more veterans than Russia, courtesy of Russia itself in the Donbas.

Nonetheless I believed for a time that the Russians would simply increase their forces and win by the end of the year.

I brushed off early reports of Ukrainian successes. If you know your history you will know that there were reports in the western media of serious defeats suffered by the Germans in Poland in 1939. Early reports are very unreliable in war. I did not want to get my hopes up. But ...

Recall the "giant convoy" that was headed towards Kyiv? This seemed like that Russian effort. But it stalled. Days went by and it did not begin to move again. Then it went away, or disintegrated, or fell into a portable
black hole. By now my mind was changed, and I had hope for Ukraine.

Since then Russian incompetence has been highlighted. My fear is that the time-servers, politicos, and idiots will be weeded out. Fortunately this seems to be taking a long time. And when politics rules, sometimes it's the competent who are weeded out.

It is normal in war to feel uncertainty, even when historians argue in retrospect that at some point the war was already "decided". Recall that Eisenhower had a speech ready in case the Normandy landings failed. Despite recent Ukrainian successes, I am still in that worried state.

William Hyde

On 09/10/2022 03:02 PM, a425couple wrote:
> On 09/10/2022 12:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>> feeling OK?
>
> I think they may be feeling a bit green around the gills.
>
> from
> https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/09/10/it-will-be-like-an-avalanche-ukraine-seizes-key-strategic-city-russia-pulling-back-n495551
>
> “It will be like an avalanche": Ukraine seizes key strategic city;
> Russia "pulling back"? UPDATE: NYT reports Izyum in Ukraine control
> ED MORRISSEY Sep 10, 2022 11:31 AM ET
>

And a little bit ago, this might have sounded like science fiction, or
fantasy:

from
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-moscow-putin-war-ukraine-resignation-revolt-1741743

Putin Faces Second Revolt as Russian Officials Slam War, Demand Resignation
BY BRENDAN COLE ON 9/10/22 AT 7:10 AM EDT

CONTINUE
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Vladimir Putin Insists Russia Has Not Lost Anything From Waging Ukraine War

A Moscow municipality has become the second Russian local authority this
week to take the risk of calling for Vladimir Putin's resignation.

The letter addressed to the president by council deputies at
Lomonosovsky Municipal District did not directly mention Putin's
invasion of Ukraine, but did refer to how Russia had now become "feared
and hated" while "aggression" has taken the country back to the "Cold
War era."

The letter also made a pointed criticism of the length of Putin's
presidency, describing how following local Moscow elections on Sunday,
it was a good thing that the council's membership would change after
five years.

"In countries with regular turnover of power, people, on average, live
better and longer than in those where the leader leaves office carried
out in a box," it said.

NEWSWEEK NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP >
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow on September
9, 2022. A Moscow municipality has passed a motion and sent a letter
calling for Putin's resignation.

Putin became president in 2000, a role he has held apart from four years
between 2008 and 2012, when Dmitry Medvedev took over in what was seen
globally as a move just to keep his seat warm. Upon resuming the
presidency in 2012, the Russian constitution has been changed to allow
him to potentially stay as head of state until 2036.

The missive went on to say there had been "good reforms" in the first
and part of the second of Putin's terms, but after that "somehow
everything went wrong." It referred to Russia's brain drain, how the
minimum wage and GDP did not rise enough and the "promised stability is
not in sight."

"The rhetoric that you and your subordinates are using has been riddled
with intolerance and aggression for a long time, which in the end
effectively threw our country back into the Cold War era," the letter said.

"Russia has again begun to be feared and hated, we again threaten the
whole world with nuclear weapons," it added. "We ask you to relieve
yourself of your post due to the fact that your views, your management
model are hopelessly outdated and hinder the development of Russia and
its human potential."

Journalist and Russia watcher Julia Davis tweeted how the council had
voted on the motion and produced the letter, which was also reported by
the independent Russian-language news outlet The Insider.

"Criticism of Putin is rare, & while the two motions were little more
than symbolic statements, they represented a remarkable public rebuke,"
Davis wrote.

READ MORE
Moscow Professor Warns of Rising Social Tensions Without Victory Soon
Vladimir Putin's War Has Exposed Weakness of Russian Military: CIA Director
Russian Officials Who Plotted To Overthrow Putin Summoned by Police
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin and Lomonosovsky Municipal District
Council for comment.

Criticizing Putin so brazenly carries a considerable risk where dissent
can lead to imprisonment or worse. Police in St Petersburg have said
they would charge lawmakers at Smolninsky District Council in Putin's
home town after they called for the president to be charged with treason.

The district council's statement came in the form of a request to the
Russian parliament, the State Duma, and said Putin's invasion led to a
massive loss of life, disabled veterans, hindered the national economy,
and fast-tracked NATO's eastward expansion. Police said they face
charges linked to "discrediting" the Russian government,

Conversation55 Comments
Start a discussion, not a fire. Post with kindness. Read our guidelines
here.

Don P
9 hours ago
The cracks are starting to appear, it won't be fast but Putin's end is
coming. Ukraine starts taking large numbers of the soldiers they have
surrounded prisoner and Ukraine lets them call home and there will be
more outcry, The thing about dissent is it often gives others the
courage to speak out. Two municipalities so close together could be the
beginning of a tidal wave.

Reagan1984
12 hours ago
Isn't it amazing?

These several Municipal Deputies are prepared to go on the record to
criticise Putin's war and the damage that it is doing to Russia's
reputation, even though they risk getting tossed out of tenth-storey
window or sharing a cold, dank cell with the honorable Navalny.

But the trolls on this site will defend Putin to the hilt, and insist
not only that the war is justified, but that Russia is also on schedule
to achieve victory in accordance with Putin's timetable and expectations.

Miguel
7 hours ago
Of course they defend "little boss"! Most of them live on welfare of
western countries... Which they criticise, naturally

Reagan1984
10 hours ago
It seems that they have been given a directive on how to adjust to the
latest news.

Some of them are saying that the Ukrainian advances are bad thing for
Ukraine because (a) they will exact retribution against friends of
Russia and (b) Zelensky will sell their souls to Wall Street, or some
such thing.

hhm294
11 hours ago
For every incident like this that we hear about, there are surely many
more that go unreported.

Hopefully this is a sign that Putin's end is near.

Mydog Hasfleas
11 hours ago
That’s an excellent point.
Reply

Peter Edwards
11 hours ago
No doubt the Council members will go and smoke by a window on an upper
floor, which we all know is very dangerous in Putinland.

Anne Bourne
12 hours ago
Brave people! But it might be like dominoes and start a wave of
opposition to Putin and his awful war.

Mike M
6 hours ago
I agree, sometimes when people leak their opinions in high places in
government, it is the beginning of the end. While there are certainly
problems with a democracy form of government, I agree with the Russian
leaders that when a politician is in office for far too long, the people
under that regime suffer. Time to till the soil under and plant new
seeds of growth and happiness in Russia. Raise the Stoli glass
comrades, time for change.

Jpnh
10 hours ago
Id love to read the whole statements. Did they actually say anything to
discredit the Russian government? They didn't state any facts (which
Russia could claim are lies), just opinions. Could their lawyers argue
these councilmen were doing their duties as elected officials and
therefore were _crediting_ the Russian government?
Of course, I live in the US where legal arguments actually matter...

Reagan1984
10 hours ago
Yep - It's hard for us to recognise what it must be like to live under
the eye of wrathful Big Brother.

But, based on their apparent assumption that the repetitious telling of
incorrect facts will cause us to eventually accept them, it seems to me
that the trolls also struggle to understand what it is like to live in a
place where the officials are accountable, and where we have access to
Google and government records and other factual data.

Monte
3 hours ago
Well they have to be careful about what they specifically say. The last
group of officials got charged under Russia's new laws that forbids
"discrediting the military" (aka, saying anything that contradicts the
kremlin). This is why they did not specifically bring up the Ukrainian
invasion. Also this is a letter, not a legal motion.

Jon Dough
6 hours ago
Glad to see there are still some in Russia brave enough to say out loud
what many must be thinking. However, they should avoid balconies and
other high places.

Timekeeper
10 hours ago
You think American politics is bad. Try being the opposition in russia.

Putin is known for taking out the oppositiion, manipulating the polls
and making sure their is only one party. if trump was trying to get
elected in russia, he would have disappeared long ago. So here in
America, raise a glass, laugh, and realize, trump can say and do
anything and we will make him pay in front of the whole world, like we
are doing to putin. Russias psuedo elections are going on, its all putin
clones who will win. No opposition.

In article <b199cf27-c8b4-4a5b-b0d1-f5dc9d07f034n@googlegroups.com>,
William Hyde <wthyde1953@gmail.com> wrote:
>Since then Russian incompetence has been highlighted. My fear is that
>the time-servers, politicos, and idiots will be weeded out.
>Fortunately this seems to be taking a long time. And when politics
>rules, sometimes it's the competent who are weeded out.

From what I've read, the fundamental problem is that the Russian
army is still using the Soviet command structure in which no one
below about the rank of Colonel is allowed to make even tactical
decisions. So a Sergeant sees and opportunity and passes the word
up the line. By the time it gets to someone that can make a
decision and gets back down as orders, the opportunity has passed,
and if the order is carried out, a more agile opponent will hand
the unit its collective posterior.

The Ukraine army *used* to use the same doctrine. Then they got
their collective posteriors handed to them by the Russians and
local dissidents in the eastern part of Ukraine. As a result,
they brought in western advisors and completely revamped their
operational procedures on Western European/US/NATO lines, where
non-coms have authority to act on what they know locally, and the
training to do so. As a result, tactical decisions and siezing
opportunities happen very rapidly, catching the Russians off
guard.

The overall result is that one is largely seeing the differences
in battlefield effectiveness between the old Soviet doctrine and
the modern Western doctrine. The Western doctrine is turning out
the be extremely effective, by comparison.

One is also now seeing the difference between "throw everything
you've got and don't worry about accuracy" vs. "hit *precisely*
what you mean to hit and destroy it on the first shot."

Note also that there are reports that Russia is buying up mass
quatities of rockets and artillery shells from, of all places,
North Korea. We may soon get a look at what NK quality control
is like.

On Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 8:48:46 PM UTC+1, James Nicoll wrote:
> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
> feeling OK?
> --
> My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
> My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
> My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
> My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll
I have been following the Telegraph podcast, which has been pretty calm and professional. They reckon Russia's remaining card is cutting Europe off from gas over the winter, but are slightly worried that Russia may resort to tactical nukes, or using the nuclear power plant they have captured as a dirty bomb. I think that the Telegraph's defense correspondent (ex-forces) is impressed by the Ukrainian use of western combined arms warfare, and the degree of surprise they have achieved lately - very sneaky, in a Honor Harrington like sense.

If you really want to hear an opposing view I suggest another podcast, "The President's Daily Brief". This is always a well presented overview of news stories you might not hear elsewhere, but on Ukraine it has been extremely selective in what it presents, and it completely ignores the question of how Russia might behave if it acquired control over Ukraine's natural resources. Based on this, too, Russia's strongest card is Europe's dependency on Russian energy. The PDB has also raised the possibility that Russia may renege on, or fail to renew, the agreement that allows Ukraine to export some of its grain by sea.

djheydt@kithrup.com (Dorothy J Heydt) wrote in
news:rI0w4J.tno@kithrup.com:

>
> Note also that there are reports that Russia is buying up mass
> quatities of rockets and artillery shells from, of all places,
> North Korea. We may soon get a look at what NK quality control
> is like.

One thing is that North Korea doesn't really NEED great quality control for
its weapons. North Korea's military is basically the world's biggest
suicide bomb. They don't need all of their weapons to work. Just enough of
them to do lots of damage before they lose.

a425couple <a425couple@hotmail.com> writes:
>On 09/10/2022 12:48 PM, James Nicoll wrote:
>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>> feeling OK?
>>
>
>I think they may be feeling a bit green around the gills.
>
>
>from
>https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/09/10/it-will-be-like-an-avalanche-ukraine-seizes-key-strategic-city-russia-pulling-back-n495551
>
>“It will be like an avalanche": Ukraine seizes key strategic city;
>Russia "pulling back"? UPDATE: NYT reports Izyum in Ukraine control
>ED MORRISSEY Sep 10, 2022 11:31 AM ET

This site has good descriptions, day by day, of the conflict.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-9

Just update the last digit(s) of the URL to the required date.

TL;DNR: The Russians are in trouble. The bulk of the fighting has been done
by "contract" soldiers (either contracted to Wagner or to the Russian
Army). The Russians don't want to call up ethnic Russians, so they've
been pushing on the federated countries to pony up "volunteer" troops,
training them for a couple weeks and sending them to the front.

They've lost thousands of military vehicles, used up significant fractions
of their rockets and missiles.

Their air force is a paper tiger, with very small numbers of modern aircraft, only
half of which are combat ready.

It has been interesting to spot Russian airbases using Google's satellite view and
note just how unmaintained most of them are, with partly assembled aircraft littering
the field, overgrown overrun areas and a notable lack of skidmarks (indicating activity)
on the runways.

One of the naval aviation bases near Murmansk has a whole line of IL-38's with no
propellers (Severomorsk at 69.029914,33.420859).

William Hyde <wthyde1953@gmail.com> writes:
>On Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 3:48:46 PM UTC-4, James Nicoll wrote:
>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the=20
>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys=20
>> feeling OK?=20
>
>My first thought was that the Russian invasion was not nearly large enough.=
> I was thinking in terms of WWII numbers, where nobody would think of atta=
>cking a country the size of Ukraine with less than double that. My second =
>thought was that Ukraine had more veterans than Russia, courtesy of Russia =
>itself in the Donbas.

My first thought was the Russian Military had not been paying attention to
military developments in the years since the end of WWII. While the
US has fought four major conflicts directly (Korea, Vietnam, Gulf I and Gulf II)
in those years and have developed the military doctrine (and logistics) to support them,
the Russians have not fought a major campaign against a quality opponent
since 1945. They don't have the logistics chains, the ex-soviet equipment
is poorly maintained and almost useless on the modern battlefield and their
lack of non-commissioned officers is crippling (hence the early loss of
a half dozen or more Generals).

The Russian air force is untrained, unpracticed and has an abysmal combat readiness rate;
they have only one of their soi disant "stealth" fighters, and of their
16 TU-160 bombers, only about eight are combat-ready; thus they don't want
to risk them against Ukrainian air defences.

It's no wonder that NATO frightens Putin.

On Sun, 11 Sep 2022 01:57:55 GMT, djheydt@kithrup.com (Dorothy J
Heydt) wrote:

>In article <b199cf27-c8b4-4a5b-b0d1-f5dc9d07f034n@googlegroups.com>,
>William Hyde <wthyde1953@gmail.com> wrote:
>>Since then Russian incompetence has been highlighted. My fear is that
>>the time-servers, politicos, and idiots will be weeded out.
>>Fortunately this seems to be taking a long time. And when politics
>>rules, sometimes it's the competent who are weeded out.
>
>From what I've read, the fundamental problem is that the Russian
>army is still using the Soviet command structure in which no one
>below about the rank of Colonel is allowed to make even tactical
>decisions. So a Sergeant sees and opportunity and passes the word
>up the line. By the time it gets to someone that can make a
>decision and gets back down as orders, the opportunity has passed,
>and if the order is carried out, a more agile opponent will hand
>the unit its collective posterior.

This was, apparently, a factor in 1940, with the Germans having the
flexibility and the French trying to control everything from on high.

Didn't work too well then, either. But the Western Allies learned and
adapted.

>The Ukraine army *used* to use the same doctrine. Then they got
>their collective posteriors handed to them by the Russians and
>local dissidents in the eastern part of Ukraine. As a result,
>they brought in western advisors and completely revamped their
>operational procedures on Western European/US/NATO lines, where
>non-coms have authority to act on what they know locally, and the
>training to do so. As a result, tactical decisions and siezing
>opportunities happen very rapidly, catching the Russians off
>guard.
>
>The overall result is that one is largely seeing the differences
>in battlefield effectiveness between the old Soviet doctrine and
>the modern Western doctrine. The Western doctrine is turning out
>the be extremely effective, by comparison.

The Soviets defeated the Germans mostly by sheer mass of men and
materiel. Their manpower pool was so depleted toward the end that they
had entire armored units "manned" by women.

The Germans, of course, were even worse off, as the 12-year-olds in
/Downfall/ testify to -- or, for that matter the very old commander of
the POW detail in Dresden and the young boy under his command.

>One is also now seeing the difference between "throw everything
>you've got and don't worry about accuracy" vs. "hit *precisely*
>what you mean to hit and destroy it on the first shot."
>
>Note also that there are reports that Russia is buying up mass
>quatities of rockets and artillery shells from, of all places,
>North Korea. We may soon get a look at what NK quality control
>is like.

Aren't there also supposed to be 100,000 N Korean soldiers on the way
to help? Or has Putin been asking himself what might happen if he
allows 100,000 N Korean soldiers into Russia?
--
"In this connexion, unquestionably the most significant
development was the disintegration, under Christian
influence, of classical conceptions of the family and
of family right."

In article <7m3shhp99lrqt870hqtmdmmen3e40t0v4t@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>
>The Germans, of course, were even worse off, as the 12-year-olds in
>/Downfall/ testify to -- or, for that matter the very old commander of
>the POW detail in Dresden and the young boy under his command.

My next door neighbour growing up's 16th birthday present was a ticket
to the Eastern front, followed by a tour of various Eastern European
POW camps. He had a _very_ dim view of the Nazis.
--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

On Sat, 10 Sep 2022 19:48:41 -0000 (UTC), jdnicoll@panix.com (James
Nicoll) wrote:

>I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the
>"Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys
>feeling OK?

I, too, expected Russia to win quickly. I find Ukraine's success to be
.... very gratifying.

My advice to Putin has not changed:

negotiate a complete withdrawal from the Ukraine (included the Crimea)
/now/ before Kaliningrad is put on the table.
--
"In this connexion, unquestionably the most significant
development was the disintegration, under Christian
influence, of classical conceptions of the family and
of family right."

On 9/10/2022 8:57 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
> In article<b199cf27-c8b4-4a5b-b0d1-f5dc9d07f034n@googlegroups.com>,
> William Hyde<wthyde1953@gmail.com> wrote:
>> Since then Russian incompetence has been highlighted. My fear is that
>> the time-servers, politicos, and idiots will be weeded out.
>> Fortunately this seems to be taking a long time. And when politics
>> rules, sometimes it's the competent who are weeded out.
> From what I've read, the fundamental problem is that the Russian
> army is still using the Soviet command structure in which no one
> below about the rank of Colonel is allowed to make even tactical
> decisions. So a Sergeant sees and opportunity and passes the word
> up the line. By the time it gets to someone that can make a
> decision and gets back down as orders, the opportunity has passed,
> and if the order is carried out, a more agile opponent will hand
> the unit its collective posterior.

They also have to see what's going on at the front themselves because
they can't trust the troop on the line to report correctly, which has
led to at least a (reportedly) dozen Russian generals being killed by
snipers. Including Vladimir Andonov, 44, who has been dubbed "The
Executioner" and one of Putin's favored.

Along with hundreds of lower rank officers and a couple thousand, at
least, enlisted.

In article <7m3shhp99lrqt870hqtmdmmen3e40t0v4t@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>The Germans, of course, were even worse off, as the 12-year-olds in
>/Downfall/ testify to -- or, for that matter the very old commander of
>the POW detail in Dresden and the young boy under his command.

I had a work colleague in the early 1980s who was born and grew
up in small town about 50Km from what was then the Czech border.
He drove a delivery van for a local ggrocery store. Then he got
drafted and spent 6 months doing occupation duty in France.

He said it was amazing. One could buy food that was severely
rationed in Germany and all the railroad equipment was very old
German gear that had be taken as (WW1) war reparations, thus
destroying the French rail equipment companies.

After six months in France, his home-town job was deemed
"essential" and he was released back to it.

Near the end of the war, he was drafted *again*, this time into
the Volksturm and was one of the defenders at the seige of
Breslau. After that ended, he was in a Russian PoW camp for a
year. When they broke up the camp, they would alternate sending
trains to what became West Germany with what became East Germany.
he got lucky and his train went west.

He also talked about a high school friend who wound up in the
Afrika Corps and wrote letters home with things like, "Here we
are in western Egypt. It's like every Bible story you ever read.
Hasn't changed in 2000 years."

In article <0l4shhlnh44plrbipqjhe33g4in8jdvbjg@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>My advice to Putin has not changed:
>
>negotiate a complete withdrawal from the Ukraine (included the Crimea)
>/now/ before Kaliningrad is put on the table.

(Hal Heydt)
Curiosity only... Who do think would get Kaliningrad?
Lithuania, Poland, or Germany? (The last because that used to
be--at least part of--East Prussia.)

Perhaps another area to consider would be the Karellian
Peninsula, assuming that the Finns might want it back.

On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 2:46:23 PM UTC-4, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
> In article <0l4shhlnh44plrbip...@4ax.com>,
> Paul S Person <pspe...@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
> >My advice to Putin has not changed:
> >
> >negotiate a complete withdrawal from the Ukraine (included the Crimea)
> >/now/ before Kaliningrad is put on the table.
> (Hal Heydt)
> Curiosity only... Who do think would get Kaliningrad?
> Lithuania, Poland, or Germany? (The last because that used to
> be--at least part of--East Prussia.)
>
> Perhaps another area to consider would be the Karellian
> Peninsula, assuming that the Finns might want it back.

The problem is that part of the Stalinist/Soviet/Russian/Putinist
playbook is the wholesale relocation of populations, while moving
In Russians, with the goal of Russification. The population of the
Kaliningrad Oblast is now 86% Russian, and under 1% German.

Crimea is similar; 67% Russian, 15% Ukrainian. The ethnic group
that 'should' have it, Crimean Tartars, is only 12%.

I consider Ukraine getting Crimea back a very long shot.

As for Karelia, Finland evacuated the Finnish population
(422k) back into Finland before turning it over. It's now almost
wholly Russian.

Stalin, Putin, Andrew Jackson,and Quaddie would happily consider 'fixing' this
with forced migration. Most would not.

Pt

On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 2:46:23 PM UTC-4, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
> In article <0l4shhlnh44plrbip...@4ax.com>,
> Paul S Person <pspe...@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
> >My advice to Putin has not changed:
> >
> >negotiate a complete withdrawal from the Ukraine (included the Crimea)
> >/now/ before Kaliningrad is put on the table.
> (Hal Heydt)
> Curiosity only... Who do think would get Kaliningrad?
> Lithuania, Poland, or Germany? (The last because that used to
> be--at least part of--East Prussia.)

Well we could run DNA analyses of some verifiably Prussian corpses and see who their modern descendants are, thus reconstituting the fourth Baltic state, repopulating it with anyone with more than, say 25% Prussian ancestry.

But they would be required to learn Prussian.

Next stop, independent Kashubia!

William Hyde

In article <a47ea5ec-bc07-4b37-8c25-71e9371452den@googlegroups.com>,
William Hyde <wthyde1953@gmail.com> wrote:
>On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 2:46:23 PM UTC-4, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>> In article <0l4shhlnh44plrbip...@4ax.com>,
>> Paul S Person <pspe...@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>> >My advice to Putin has not changed:
>> >
>> >negotiate a complete withdrawal from the Ukraine (included the Crimea)
>> >/now/ before Kaliningrad is put on the table.
>> (Hal Heydt)
>> Curiosity only... Who do think would get Kaliningrad?
>> Lithuania, Poland, or Germany? (The last because that used to
>> be--at least part of--East Prussia.)
>
>Well we could run DNA analyses of some verifiably Prussian corpses and
>see who their modern descendants are, thus reconstituting the fourth
>Baltic state, repopulating it with anyone with more than, say 25%
>Prussian ancestry.
>
>But they would be required to learn Prussian.
>
>Next stop, independent Kashubia!

(Hal Heydt)
I don't meet that threshhold, but the eponymous Heydt--my
great-grandfather Carl Otto Heydt--emmigrated from Prussia.
Don't know if it was East or West, though, since he left rather
than get drafted to fight in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870.

"Jay E. Morris" <morrisj@epsilon3.comcon> wrote in
news:tfl9qo$20pgm$1@dont-email.me:

> On 9/10/2022 8:57 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>> In
>> article<b199cf27-c8b4-4a5b-b0d1-f5dc9d07f034n@googlegroups.com>,
>> William Hyde<wthyde1953@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> Since then Russian incompetence has been highlighted. My fear
>>> is that the time-servers, politicos, and idiots will be weeded
>>> out. Fortunately this seems to be taking a long time. And
>>> when politics rules, sometimes it's the competent who are
>>> weeded out.
>> From what I've read, the fundamental problem is that the
>> Russian
>> army is still using the Soviet command structure in which no
>> one below about the rank of Colonel is allowed to make even
>> tactical decisions. So a Sergeant sees and opportunity and
>> passes the word up the line. By the time it gets to someone
>> that can make a decision and gets back down as orders, the
>> opportunity has passed, and if the order is carried out, a more
>> agile opponent will hand the unit its collective posterior.
>
> They also have to see what's going on at the front themselves
> because they can't trust the troop on the line to report
> correctly, which has led to at least a (reportedly) dozen
> Russian generals being killed by snipers. Including Vladimir
> Andonov, 44, who has been dubbed "The Executioner" and one of
> Putin's favored.
>
> Along with hundreds of lower rank officers and a couple
> thousand, at least, enlisted.
>
The Ukranians estimate ~28,000. Analysis of death benefits paid by
the Russian government (which were recently leaked) say this is far
more accurate an estimate than one usually expects.

This is dead only; it does not include wounded or captured, which
are significantly higher.

--
Terry Austin

Proof that Alan Baker is a liar and a fool, and even stupider than
Lynn:
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.

On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:36:53 PM UTC-4, Ninapenda Jibini wrote:
> "Jay E. Morris" <mor...@epsilon3.comcon> wrote in
> news:tfl9qo$20pgm$1...@dont-email.me:
> > On 9/10/2022 8:57 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
> >> In
> >> article<b199cf27-c8b4-4a5b...@googlegroups.com>,
> >> William Hyde<wthyd...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>> Since then Russian incompetence has been highlighted. My fear
> >>> is that the time-servers, politicos, and idiots will be weeded
> >>> out. Fortunately this seems to be taking a long time. And
> >>> when politics rules, sometimes it's the competent who are
> >>> weeded out.
> >> From what I've read, the fundamental problem is that the
> >> Russian
> >> army is still using the Soviet command structure in which no
> >> one below about the rank of Colonel is allowed to make even
> >> tactical decisions. So a Sergeant sees and opportunity and
> >> passes the word up the line. By the time it gets to someone
> >> that can make a decision and gets back down as orders, the
> >> opportunity has passed, and if the order is carried out, a more
> >> agile opponent will hand the unit its collective posterior.
> >
> > They also have to see what's going on at the front themselves
> > because they can't trust the troop on the line to report
> > correctly, which has led to at least a (reportedly) dozen
> > Russian generals being killed by snipers. Including Vladimir
> > Andonov, 44, who has been dubbed "The Executioner" and one of
> > Putin's favored.
> >
> > Along with hundreds of lower rank officers and a couple
> > thousand, at least, enlisted.
> >
> The Ukranians estimate ~28,000. Analysis of death benefits paid by
> the Russian government (which were recently leaked) say this is far
> more accurate an estimate than one usually expects.
>
> This is dead only; it does not include wounded or captured, which
> are significantly higher.

Are your sources up to date? A week ago a Russian document was
found implying 48k payouts for dead soldiers. Ukraine claims over
50k, and the DoD 80k, though the latter number includes fighters
from the two separatist areas, which the others don't.

Pt
..

On 9/11/2022 6:36 PM, Ninapenda Jibini wrote:
> "Jay E. Morris" <morrisj@epsilon3.comcon> wrote in
> news:tfl9qo$20pgm$1@dont-email.me:
>
>> On 9/10/2022 8:57 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>>> In
>>> article<b199cf27-c8b4-4a5b-b0d1-f5dc9d07f034n@googlegroups.com>,
>>> William Hyde<wthyde1953@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> Since then Russian incompetence has been highlighted. My fear
>>>> is that the time-servers, politicos, and idiots will be weeded
>>>> out. Fortunately this seems to be taking a long time. And
>>>> when politics rules, sometimes it's the competent who are
>>>> weeded out.
>>> From what I've read, the fundamental problem is that the
>>> Russian
>>> army is still using the Soviet command structure in which no
>>> one below about the rank of Colonel is allowed to make even
>>> tactical decisions. So a Sergeant sees and opportunity and
>>> passes the word up the line. By the time it gets to someone
>>> that can make a decision and gets back down as orders, the
>>> opportunity has passed, and if the order is carried out, a more
>>> agile opponent will hand the unit its collective posterior.
>>
>> They also have to see what's going on at the front themselves
>> because they can't trust the troop on the line to report
>> correctly, which has led to at least a (reportedly) dozen
>> Russian generals being killed by snipers. Including Vladimir
>> Andonov, 44, who has been dubbed "The Executioner" and one of
>> Putin's favored.
>>
>> Along with hundreds of lower rank officers and a couple
>> thousand, at least, enlisted.
>>
> The Ukranians estimate ~28,000. Analysis of death benefits paid by
> the Russian government (which were recently leaked) say this is far
> more accurate an estimate than one usually expects.
>
> This is dead only; it does not include wounded or captured, which
> are significantly higher.
>

I was referencing sniper kills but I think latest total KIA is a bit
higher than that. Fog of war though.

"pete...@gmail.com" <petertrei@gmail.com> wrote in
news:843c3528-9a04-4f13-9ef3-e57ddb9d694bn@googlegroups.com:

> On Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 7:36:53 PM UTC-4, Ninapenda
> Jibini wrote:
>> "Jay E. Morris" <mor...@epsilon3.comcon> wrote in
>> news:tfl9qo$20pgm$1...@dont-email.me:
>> > On 9/10/2022 8:57 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>> >> In
>> >> article<b199cf27-c8b4-4a5b...@googlegroups.com>,
>> >> William Hyde<wthyd...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> >>> Since then Russian incompetence has been highlighted. My
>> >>> fear is that the time-servers, politicos, and idiots will
>> >>> be weeded out. Fortunately this seems to be taking a long
>> >>> time. And when politics rules, sometimes it's the competent
>> >>> who are weeded out.
>> >> From what I've read, the fundamental problem is that the
>> >> Russian
>> >> army is still using the Soviet command structure in which no
>> >> one below about the rank of Colonel is allowed to make even
>> >> tactical decisions. So a Sergeant sees and opportunity and
>> >> passes the word up the line. By the time it gets to someone
>> >> that can make a decision and gets back down as orders, the
>> >> opportunity has passed, and if the order is carried out, a
>> >> more agile opponent will hand the unit its collective
>> >> posterior.
>> >
>> > They also have to see what's going on at the front themselves
>> > because they can't trust the troop on the line to report
>> > correctly, which has led to at least a (reportedly) dozen
>> > Russian generals being killed by snipers. Including Vladimir
>> > Andonov, 44, who has been dubbed "The Executioner" and one of
>> > Putin's favored.
>> >
>> > Along with hundreds of lower rank officers and a couple
>> > thousand, at least, enlisted.
>> >
>> The Ukranians estimate ~28,000. Analysis of death benefits paid
>> by the Russian government (which were recently leaked) say this
>> is far more accurate an estimate than one usually expects.
>>
>> This is dead only; it does not include wounded or captured,
>> which are significantly higher.
>
> Are your sources up to date?

Up to date, yes. Reliable? Heh.

> A week ago a Russian document was
> found implying 48k payouts for dead soldiers. Ukraine claims
> over 50k, and the DoD 80k, though the latter number includes
> fighters from the two separatist areas, which the others don't.
>
Those sound more like total on both sides, including civilians,
rather than soldiers on the Russian side only. But who knows? We'll
never really be sure.

In any event, this is turning into one of the most thorough ass-
kickings in modern military history. Not as bad as the US invasion
of Iraq, but as close as anybody has gotten.

--
Terry Austin

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.

"Jay E. Morris" <morrisj@epsilon3.comcon> wrote in
news:tfnd6v$290jd$1@dont-email.me:

> On 9/11/2022 6:36 PM, Ninapenda Jibini wrote:
>> "Jay E. Morris" <morrisj@epsilon3.comcon> wrote in
>> news:tfl9qo$20pgm$1@dont-email.me:
>>
>>> On 9/10/2022 8:57 PM, Dorothy J Heydt wrote:
>>>> In
>>>> article<b199cf27-c8b4-4a5b-b0d1-f5dc9d07f034n@googlegroups.com
>>>> >, William Hyde<wthyde1953@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>> Since then Russian incompetence has been highlighted. My
>>>>> fear is that the time-servers, politicos, and idiots will be
>>>>> weeded out. Fortunately this seems to be taking a long time.
>>>>> And when politics rules, sometimes it's the competent who
>>>>> are weeded out.
>>>> From what I've read, the fundamental problem is that the
>>>> Russian
>>>> army is still using the Soviet command structure in which no
>>>> one below about the rank of Colonel is allowed to make even
>>>> tactical decisions. So a Sergeant sees and opportunity and
>>>> passes the word up the line. By the time it gets to someone
>>>> that can make a decision and gets back down as orders, the
>>>> opportunity has passed, and if the order is carried out, a
>>>> more agile opponent will hand the unit its collective
>>>> posterior.
>>>
>>> They also have to see what's going on at the front themselves
>>> because they can't trust the troop on the line to report
>>> correctly, which has led to at least a (reportedly) dozen
>>> Russian generals being killed by snipers. Including Vladimir
>>> Andonov, 44, who has been dubbed "The Executioner" and one of
>>> Putin's favored.
>>>
>>> Along with hundreds of lower rank officers and a couple
>>> thousand, at least, enlisted.
>>>
>> The Ukranians estimate ~28,000. Analysis of death benefits paid
>> by the Russian government (which were recently leaked) say this
>> is far more accurate an estimate than one usually expects.
>>
>> This is dead only; it does not include wounded or captured,
>> which are significantly higher.
>>
>
> I was referencing sniper kills but I think latest total KIA is a
> bit higher than that. Fog of war though.
>
The sources I see seem to tend strongly towards conservative
estimates backed by verifiable evidence, which will be lower than
the real numbers.

What's really surprising to me is that the Ukrainian estimates are
on a part with most other, more objective estimates. They're really
playing a brilliant long term proganda game.

--
Terry Austin

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.

On Sun, 11 Sep 2022 16:22:11 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
wrote:

>William Hyde <wthyde1953@gmail.com> writes:
>>On Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 3:48:46 PM UTC-4, James Nicoll wrote:
>>> I haven't seen much commentary on the Ukrainian war from the=20
>>> "Russian victory is inevitable" side here recently. You guys=20
>>> feeling OK?=20
>>
>>My first thought was that the Russian invasion was not nearly large enough.=
>> I was thinking in terms of WWII numbers, where nobody would think of atta=
>>cking a country the size of Ukraine with less than double that. My second =
>>thought was that Ukraine had more veterans than Russia, courtesy of Russia =
>>itself in the Donbas.
>
>My first thought was the Russian Military had not been paying attention to
>military developments in the years since the end of WWII. While the
>US has fought four major conflicts directly (Korea, Vietnam, Gulf I and Gulf II)
>in those years and have developed the military doctrine (and logistics) to support them,
>the Russians have not fought a major campaign against a quality opponent
>since 1945. They don't have the logistics chains, the ex-soviet equipment
>is poorly maintained and almost useless on the modern battlefield and their
>lack of non-commissioned officers is crippling (hence the early loss of
>a half dozen or more Generals).

The Russian Army, Soviet or Putin, has always had a very large "tooth
to tail" ratio -- that is, logistics are skimped on, compared to the
West. In WWII, Soviet infantry divisions were basically kept in the
line until destroyed, and then replaced by newly-raised divisions.

This was true in WWII (at least, once the USA got involved). There
have been a lot of changes since WWII, but the disparity in logistics
isn't one of them.

>The Russian air force is untrained, unpracticed and has an abysmal combat readiness rate;
>they have only one of their soi disant "stealth" fighters, and of their
>16 TU-160 bombers, only about eight are combat-ready; thus they don't want
>to risk them against Ukrainian air defences.
>
>It's no wonder that NATO frightens Putin.

And he's managed to get Sweden and Finland to join, turning the Baltic
into a NATO lake. This is /not/ progress from Putin's point of view.

I think I have mentioned that, when SPI produced /Objective: Moscow/,
which was billed as a late-90s (it was done in the late 1970s) game of
an invasion of Russia, they discovered that Russia was already
surrounded by enemies: Finland, NATO, Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan,
Pakistan, China, Japan. So they also did a 1970s invasion game in the
same package.

This shows both why Russia is a bit paranoid toward its neighbors.
Particularly given how Russia has treated its neighbors in the past.
But it also would seem to suggest /not/ engaging in adventurism.
--
"In this connexion, unquestionably the most significant
development was the disintegration, under Christian
influence, of classical conceptions of the family and
of family right."

On Sun, 11 Sep 2022 18:33:11 GMT, djheydt@kithrup.com (Dorothy J
Heydt) wrote:

>In article <0l4shhlnh44plrbipqjhe33g4in8jdvbjg@4ax.com>,
>Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>My advice to Putin has not changed:
>>
>>negotiate a complete withdrawal from the Ukraine (included the Crimea)
>>/now/ before Kaliningrad is put on the table.
>
>(Hal Heydt)
>Curiosity only... Who do think would get Kaliningrad?
>Lithuania, Poland, or Germany? (The last because that used to
>be--at least part of--East Prussia.)

That's hard to say, as others have pointed out.

But requiring Russia to de-pollute it as part of a peace agreement
might be possible. And/or accept limitations on what weapon systems it
can place there.

>Perhaps another area to consider would be the Karellian
>Peninsula, assuming that the Finns might want it back.
--
"In this connexion, unquestionably the most significant
development was the disintegration, under Christian
influence, of classical conceptions of the family and
of family right."