On Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 7:10:01 AM UTC-7, Ricky wrote:
> On Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 1:08:39 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
> > On Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 9:48:51 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
> > > On Mon, 23 May 2022 21:02:30 -0700 (PDT), Ed Lee
> > > <edward....@gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > >On Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:30:22 PM UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:
> > > >> On Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:47:12 AM UTC-7, Ed Lee wrote:
> > > >> > > You won't get that from a battery. No battery of any chemistry is of much use after 5 years, used a lot or not.
> > > >> > My 10 years old Leaf battery is still 60% usable after 80,000 miles. Mine is outside the "no battery" range.
> > > >> WOW! That means your range to total discharge is a grand FORTY FOUR MILES (which you don't dare use, so 30 miles is more realistic)!! Your trips will have to be within a 15 mile radius. The cost to replace the battery is roughly $5k, more than the car is worth.
> > > >
> > > >I have another 10kwh battery siting in the car, connected to the OBC (On Board Charger) output. Still trying to figure out how to trick the OBC to enable the output. Look like i need to build a dummy self charger, which is charging from the vehicle battery, but pumping energy from the auxiliary battery.
> > > >
> > > >I have spend around $1k for parts so far.
> > > That may be a fun hobby, but it doesn't sound like sensible transportation.
> > 40 miles are enough 90% of the time. For long distance, I can stuff extra batteries in. I think i can stuff in 30 to 50 kwhr eventually.
> >
> > EVs are not for everyone. EV/ICE will have to co-exist.
> LOL!!! What you drive is a DIY BEV. No one else on earth, with any sense at least, is doing what you are doing. Meanwhile, literally millions of BEVs are sold each year and the numbers are rising exponentially for now.

No really, there are many Leaf owners upgrading the battery, usually with the newer 40kwh or 65kwh donors, as well as discrete wired batteries. However, having more than 24kwh for the Gen 1 Leaf requires CAN bridge mod and the existing wiring might not handle the current as well. I will need custom OBC/DC spiller to charge the auxiliary battery separately. It's also needed for CCS charging port on the Leaf.

On Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 07:16:02 UTC-7, Ricky wrote:
> On Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:13:40 PM UTC-4, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
> > On Tuesday, 24 May 2022 at 13:15:34 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> > > ...
> > > > Probably not - but the great majority of conventional vehicles don't last that long either. The average lifetime of cars in the US is about 15 years.
> > >
> > > Then the US must keep on crashing them. In the UK we last 20 years.
> > ...
> > Not according to this.
> >
> > "The average age of a car at scrappage in 2015 reached 13.9 years"
> >
> > https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/sustainability/average-vehicle-age/
> Averages are very poor numbers to use for this. Much more realistic is the median. A car can only be scrapped at 0 years at a minimum, while there is no maximum. If half the cars are toast after, say 12 years, it would only take a few reaching 20 years plus, to push the average to 15 years.
>

I'm not sure what point you are making.

I agree that for populations with an asymmetric distribution a median would be better but I didn't find any supporting data for that.

Even the average is probably not as sensitive to long lived individuals as you indicate.

For example if half of the cars were scrapped on their 12th birthday and the other half on their 20th the median (and average) would be 16 years. Cars being scrapped before their 12th birthday would bring down the median (and average).

It would take more than just "a few" cars reaching 20 years to shift the average to 15 years.

Even if it did, that would only make the average lifetime about the same as in the US where the claim was made that in the UK the cars last 20 years.

If anything I wouldn't be surprised if cars in the UK are scrapped earlier than in the US because of the national, fairly stringent, annual MOT safety check that is mandated or the car registration cannot be renewed. In my experience than can easily cause the car to be scrapped because the repair cost can exceed the value of the vehicle. Many states in the US have similar requirements but also many don't, California doesn't; only emissions are checked every three years.

kw
....

Ed Lee <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote in news:ce03511b-0553-492f-
a517-8bc0cc613b98n@googlegroups.com:

> You have reading and learning disabilities.

You are an abject idiot. And you have electrical engineering
disabilities.

Nice attempt at yet another invalid assessment.

Just like your invalid assessment of how a bank of cells (battery)
operates, much less ages.

On Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 12:12:07 PM UTC-7, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
> Ed Lee <edward....@gmail.com> wrote in news:ce03511b-0553-492f-
> a517-8bc0...@googlegroups.com:
> > You have reading and learning disabilities.
> You are an abject idiot. And you have electrical engineering
> disabilities.
>
> Nice attempt at yet another invalid assessment.
>
> Just like your invalid assessment of how a bank of cells (battery)
> operates, much less ages.

Your statement: "A waning battery takes more juice to charge and gets you less output" is ludicrous.

On Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 12:19:15 UTC-7, Ed Lee wrote:
....
> Your statement: "A waning battery takes more juice to charge and gets you less output" is ludicrous.

It's not ludicrous - but it is not of great significance with Li-ion batteries.

There are a couple of effects that can cause the efficiency to be lower as the battery ages.

The internal resistance increases as the battery gets older that reduces the efficiency of discharge. The wasted energy on both discharge and charge requires more energy from the charger during recharging.

The self-discharge rate also increases with aging, this also requires more energy to be restored during recharging. The self-discharge rate for Li-ion batteries is pretty low but for lead-acid and NiMH chemistries it can be very significant.

Both effects are probably swamped by the reduction in capacity so may not be noticed unless specifically measured.

kw

On Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 2:20:44 PM UTC-4, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
> On Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 07:16:02 UTC-7, Ricky wrote:
> > On Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:13:40 PM UTC-4, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, 24 May 2022 at 13:15:34 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> > > > ...
> > > > > Probably not - but the great majority of conventional vehicles don't last that long either. The average lifetime of cars in the US is about 15 years.
> > > >
> > > > Then the US must keep on crashing them. In the UK we last 20 years.
> > > ...
> > > Not according to this.
> > >
> > > "The average age of a car at scrappage in 2015 reached 13.9 years"
> > >
> > > https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/sustainability/average-vehicle-age/
> > Averages are very poor numbers to use for this. Much more realistic is the median. A car can only be scrapped at 0 years at a minimum, while there is no maximum. If half the cars are toast after, say 12 years, it would only take a few reaching 20 years plus, to push the average to 15 years.
> >
> I'm not sure what point you are making.

I'm making the point that the "average", aka "mean" is not a useful metric for understanding how many cars are on the roads of a given age. A better number is the median, where 50% of the cars built in a given year are no longer on the roads.

> I agree that for populations with an asymmetric distribution a median would be better but I didn't find any supporting data for that.
>
> Even the average is probably not as sensitive to long lived individuals as you indicate.

??? That's exactly what I'm saying and is true for cars where there is a long tail of people who don't drive so much or simply don't mind fixing them when they break.

> For example if half of the cars were scrapped on their 12th birthday and the other half on their 20th the median (and average) would be 16 years. Cars being scrapped before their 12th birthday would bring down the median (and average).
>
> It would take more than just "a few" cars reaching 20 years to shift the average to 15 years.

Except that there are very few cars scrapped before the 12 year number you picked, very few. My experience is there are significant people who keep a vehicle until it is simply no longer worth running. That can be a while. Your hypothetical is not remotely realistic. A realistic curve of the number of cars remaining of a model year, would be nearly flat for the first some years with very few members removed other than the few by accidents. Then as, say 10 years is approached, the curve starts to fall a bit from high mileage driving taking it's toll, getting steeper over the next few years. so by something like perhaps 15 years, the majority of cars will have been scrapped. The curve would taper off once the number gets low enough, becoming a bit of a half life like curve. This curve is hard to visually pick a mean while a median is very simple, the point where the remaining number on the road is half the initial value. It's also hard to see how the initial part of the curve has very little impact on the mean, because what is being counted is actually the slope of the line, not the value.

So draw the graph that actually makes sense. The number of scrapped cars in each year. Initially it's very low, rising as the median is approached and falling away afterward with the peak at about the median. The fall, however, will be slower, partly because there are fewer cars on the road, but also because it's in a region where those people keep fixing them. So the long tail would move the mean above the median by some two or so years in my estimate.

As you say, we don't have the data to actually calculate this. Hmmm.... I did see something like this at one point, but I don't remember where.

> Even if it did, that would only make the average lifetime about the same as in the US where the claim was made that in the UK the cars last 20 years..

Except that the same issue applies to the US number.

> If anything I wouldn't be surprised if cars in the UK are scrapped earlier than in the US because of the national, fairly stringent, annual MOT safety check that is mandated or the car registration cannot be renewed. In my experience than can easily cause the car to be scrapped because the repair cost can exceed the value of the vehicle. Many states in the US have similar requirements but also many don't, California doesn't; only emissions are checked every three years.

I won't argue that.

--

Rick C.
+--++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 1:29:10 PM UTC-7, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
> On Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 12:19:15 UTC-7, Ed Lee wrote:
> ...
> > Your statement: "A waning battery takes more juice to charge and gets you less output" is ludicrous.
> It's not ludicrous - but it is not of great significance with Li-ion batteries.
>
> There are a couple of effects that can cause the efficiency to be lower as the battery ages.
>
> The internal resistance increases as the battery gets older that reduces the efficiency of discharge. The wasted energy on both discharge and charge requires more energy from the charger during recharging.
>
> The self-discharge rate also increases with aging, this also requires more energy to be restored during recharging. The self-discharge rate for Li-ion batteries is pretty low but for lead-acid and NiMH chemistries it can be very significant.
>
> Both effects are probably swamped by the reduction in capacity so may not be noticed unless specifically measured.
>
> kw

It's ludicrously insignificant, of the order of 1% to 2%. It also dependent on the manufacturer. Panasonic generally has lower internal resistance than LG or Samsung, for the same type and age of cells.

On Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 13:29:23 UTC-7, Ricky wrote:
> On Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 2:20:44 PM UTC-4, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
> > On Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 07:16:02 UTC-7, Ricky wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:13:40 PM UTC-4, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
> > > > On Tuesday, 24 May 2022 at 13:15:34 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> > > > > ...
> > > > > > Probably not - but the great majority of conventional vehicles don't last that long either. The average lifetime of cars in the US is about 15 years.
> > > > >
> > > > > Then the US must keep on crashing them. In the UK we last 20 years.
> > > > ...
> > > > Not according to this.
> > > >
> > > > "The average age of a car at scrappage in 2015 reached 13.9 years"
> > > >
> > > > https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/sustainability/average-vehicle-age/
> > > Averages are very poor numbers to use for this. Much more realistic is the median. A car can only be scrapped at 0 years at a minimum, while there is no maximum. If half the cars are toast after, say 12 years, it would only take a few reaching 20 years plus, to push the average to 15 years.
> > >
> > I'm not sure what point you are making.
> I'm making the point that the "average", aka "mean" is not a useful metric for understanding how many cars are on the roads of a given age. A better number is the median, where 50% of the cars built in a given year are no longer on the roads.
> > I agree that for populations with an asymmetric distribution a median would be better but I didn't find any supporting data for that.
> >
> > Even the average is probably not as sensitive to long lived individuals as you indicate.
> ??? That's exactly what I'm saying and is true for cars where there is a long tail of people who don't drive so much or simply don't mind fixing them when they break.
> > For example if half of the cars were scrapped on their 12th birthday and the other half on their 20th the median (and average) would be 16 years. Cars being scrapped before their 12th birthday would bring down the median (and average).
> >
> > It would take more than just "a few" cars reaching 20 years to shift the average to 15 years.
> Except that there are very few cars scrapped before the 12 year number you picked, very few. My experience is there are significant people who keep a vehicle until it is simply no longer worth running. That can be a while. Your hypothetical is not remotely realistic. A realistic curve of the number of cars remaining of a model year, would be nearly flat for the first some years with very few members removed other than the few by accidents. Then as, say 10 years is approached, the curve starts to fall a bit from high mileage driving taking it's toll, getting steeper over the next few years. so by something like perhaps 15 years, the majority of cars will have been scrapped. The curve would taper off once the number gets low enough, becoming a bit of a half life like curve. This curve is hard to visually pick a mean while a median is very simple, the point where the remaining number on the road is half the initial value. It's also hard to see how the initial part of the curve has very little impact on the mean, because what is being counted is actually the slope of the line, not the value.
>
> So draw the graph that actually makes sense. The number of scrapped cars in each year. Initially it's very low, rising as the median is approached and falling away afterward with the peak at about the median. The fall, however, will be slower, partly because there are fewer cars on the road, but also because it's in a region where those people keep fixing them. So the long tail would move the mean above the median by some two or so years in my estimate.
>
> As you say, we don't have the data to actually calculate this. Hmmm.... I did see something like this at one point, but I don't remember where.
> > Even if it did, that would only make the average lifetime about the same as in the US where the claim was made that in the UK the cars last 20 years.
> Except that the same issue applies to the US number.
> > If anything I wouldn't be surprised if cars in the UK are scrapped earlier than in the US because of the national, fairly stringent, annual MOT safety check that is mandated or the car registration cannot be renewed. In my experience than can easily cause the car to be scrapped because the repair cost can exceed the value of the vehicle. Many states in the US have similar requirements but also many don't, California doesn't; only emissions are checked every three years.
> I won't argue that.
....

With an asymmetric data set such as we have here the median will be lower than the average so if the average is 15 years (13.9 for UK) the median will be somewhat lower.

I have found some data for the from NHTSA (unfortunately 15 years old from 2006) with vehicle survivability data.

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/809952

Table 1 shows the vehicle age against survival :

By the 10th year almost 30% of cars have been scrapped. The median is between 12 and 13 years. Less than 8% survive for 20 years.

With modern cars the reason for a car being scrapped may be relatively trivial. About 15 years ago my seven year old BMW required $1,000 to repair the central locking system (it would lock everyone in the car except for the driver, it was just a faulty relay in a non-repairable module) and $800 to repair the radiator fan motor controller that was integrated into the radiator. The car was worth about $10,000 when I sold it shortly after. It wouldn't take many of those types of failures to make the car economically unviable.

kw

Ed Lee <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote in
news:147ab7fb-87a6-4eed-8376-3fbbf8fedf3cn@googlegroups.com:

> On Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 12:12:07 PM UTC-7,
> DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
>> Ed Lee <edward....@gmail.com> wrote in news:ce03511b-0553-492f-
>> a517-8bc0...@googlegroups.com:
>> > You have reading and learning disabilities.
>> You are an abject idiot. And you have electrical engineering
>> disabilities.
>>
>> Nice attempt at yet another invalid assessment.
>>
>> Just like your invalid assessment of how a bank of cells
>> (battery) operates, much less ages.
>
> Your statement: "A waning battery takes more juice to charge and
> gets you less output" is ludicrous.
>

Here's one for you...

<https://ec.europa.eu/environment/pdf/waste/batteries/report_12.pdf>

By the way, the electrolyte medium can and does degrade altering
the internal resistance (and performance) of the battery. And sorry
to burst your bubble, but that evidence succinctly invalidates your
claim and makes you the clown.

"ke...@kjwdesigns.com" <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote in
news:49861a36-2ae9-41a4-9e95-15d8c5405470n@googlegroups.com:

> On Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 12:19:15 UTC-7, Ed Lee wrote:
> ...
>> Your statement: "A waning battery takes more juice to charge and
>> gets you less output" is ludicrous.
>
> It's not ludicrous - but it is not of great significance with
> Li-ion batteries.
>
> There are a couple of effects that can cause the efficiency to be
> lower as the battery ages.
>
> The internal resistance increases as the battery gets older that
> reduces the efficiency of discharge. The wasted energy on both
> discharge and charge requires more energy from the charger during
> recharging.
>
> The self-discharge rate also increases with aging, this also
> requires more energy to be restored during recharging. The
> self-discharge rate for Li-ion batteries is pretty low but for
> lead-acid and NiMH chemistries it can be very significant.
>
> Both effects are probably swamped by the reduction in capacity so
> may not be noticed unless specifically measured.
>
> kw
>

Ding!

And then the environmetal impacts of the various chemistries
weaighs in... by the ton.

<https://ec.europa.eu/environment/pdf/waste/batteries/report_12.pdf>

Ed Lee <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote in
news:fdd264b2-b555-4f7e-ad79-23b449de8de1n@googlegroups.com:

> On Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 1:29:10 PM UTC-7,
> ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
>> On Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 12:19:15 UTC-7, Ed Lee wrote:
>> ...
>> > Your statement: "A waning battery takes more juice to charge
>> > and gets you less output" is ludicrous.
>> It's not ludicrous - but it is not of great significance with
>> Li-ion batteries.
>>
>> There are a couple of effects that can cause the efficiency to be
>> lower as the battery ages.
>>
>> The internal resistance increases as the battery gets older that
>> reduces the efficiency of discharge. The wasted energy on both
>> discharge and charge requires more energy from the charger during
>> recharging.
>>
>> The self-discharge rate also increases with aging, this also
>> requires more energy to be restored during recharging. The
>> self-discharge rate for Li-ion batteries is pretty low but for
>> lead-acid and NiMH chemistries it can be very significant.
>>
>> Both effects are probably swamped by the reduction in capacity so
>> may not be noticed unless specifically measured.
>>
>> kw
>
> It's ludicrously insignificant,

Why yes, you most certainly are.

You're done, punk.

snip

On Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 5:12:00 PM UTC-4, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
> On Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 13:29:23 UTC-7, Ricky wrote:
> > On Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 2:20:44 PM UTC-4, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
> > > On Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 07:16:02 UTC-7, Ricky wrote:
> > > > On Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:13:40 PM UTC-4, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
> > > > > On Tuesday, 24 May 2022 at 13:15:34 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> > > > > > ...
> > > > > > > Probably not - but the great majority of conventional vehicles don't last that long either. The average lifetime of cars in the US is about 15 years.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Then the US must keep on crashing them. In the UK we last 20 years.
> > > > > ...
> > > > > Not according to this.
> > > > >
> > > > > "The average age of a car at scrappage in 2015 reached 13.9 years"
> > > > >
> > > > > https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/sustainability/average-vehicle-age/
> > > > Averages are very poor numbers to use for this. Much more realistic is the median. A car can only be scrapped at 0 years at a minimum, while there is no maximum. If half the cars are toast after, say 12 years, it would only take a few reaching 20 years plus, to push the average to 15 years.
> > > >
> > > I'm not sure what point you are making.
> > I'm making the point that the "average", aka "mean" is not a useful metric for understanding how many cars are on the roads of a given age. A better number is the median, where 50% of the cars built in a given year are no longer on the roads.
> > > I agree that for populations with an asymmetric distribution a median would be better but I didn't find any supporting data for that.
> > >
> > > Even the average is probably not as sensitive to long lived individuals as you indicate.
> > ??? That's exactly what I'm saying and is true for cars where there is a long tail of people who don't drive so much or simply don't mind fixing them when they break.
> > > For example if half of the cars were scrapped on their 12th birthday and the other half on their 20th the median (and average) would be 16 years.. Cars being scrapped before their 12th birthday would bring down the median (and average).
> > >
> > > It would take more than just "a few" cars reaching 20 years to shift the average to 15 years.
> > Except that there are very few cars scrapped before the 12 year number you picked, very few. My experience is there are significant people who keep a vehicle until it is simply no longer worth running. That can be a while.. Your hypothetical is not remotely realistic. A realistic curve of the number of cars remaining of a model year, would be nearly flat for the first some years with very few members removed other than the few by accidents. Then as, say 10 years is approached, the curve starts to fall a bit from high mileage driving taking it's toll, getting steeper over the next few years. so by something like perhaps 15 years, the majority of cars will have been scrapped. The curve would taper off once the number gets low enough, becoming a bit of a half life like curve. This curve is hard to visually pick a mean while a median is very simple, the point where the remaining number on the road is half the initial value. It's also hard to see how the initial part of the curve has very little impact on the mean, because what is being counted is actually the slope of the line, not the value.
> >
> > So draw the graph that actually makes sense. The number of scrapped cars in each year. Initially it's very low, rising as the median is approached and falling away afterward with the peak at about the median. The fall, however, will be slower, partly because there are fewer cars on the road, but also because it's in a region where those people keep fixing them. So the long tail would move the mean above the median by some two or so years in my estimate.
> >
> > As you say, we don't have the data to actually calculate this. Hmmm.... I did see something like this at one point, but I don't remember where.
> > > Even if it did, that would only make the average lifetime about the same as in the US where the claim was made that in the UK the cars last 20 years.
> > Except that the same issue applies to the US number.
> > > If anything I wouldn't be surprised if cars in the UK are scrapped earlier than in the US because of the national, fairly stringent, annual MOT safety check that is mandated or the car registration cannot be renewed. In my experience than can easily cause the car to be scrapped because the repair cost can exceed the value of the vehicle. Many states in the US have similar requirements but also many don't, California doesn't; only emissions are checked every three years.
> > I won't argue that.
> ...
>
> With an asymmetric data set such as we have here the median will be lower than the average so if the average is 15 years (13.9 for UK) the median will be somewhat lower.
>
> I have found some data for the from NHTSA (unfortunately 15 years old from 2006) with vehicle survivability data.
>
> https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/809952
>
> Table 1 shows the vehicle age against survival :
>
> By the 10th year almost 30% of cars have been scrapped. The median is between 12 and 13 years. Less than 8% survive for 20 years.
>
> With modern cars the reason for a car being scrapped may be relatively trivial. About 15 years ago my seven year old BMW required $1,000 to repair the central locking system (it would lock everyone in the car except for the driver, it was just a faulty relay in a non-repairable module) and $800 to repair the radiator fan motor controller that was integrated into the radiator. The car was worth about $10,000 when I sold it shortly after. It wouldn't take many of those types of failures to make the car economically unviable.

The interesting statistic in that paper is that the average miles driven on a car is only 152,137 miles! I would have expected this to be closer to 200,000. I wonder if this is impacted by the relative age of the data, 1977 to 2002?

--

Rick C.

+-+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Tue, 17 May 2022 11:53:27 +0100, John Doe <always.look@message.header> wrote:

> Ricky <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Who gives a shit about your 36 year old car? You seem to be obsessed
>> with the idea that it means something. What do you think your 36 year
>> old car means in the transition to BEVs that is taking place in the
>> world?
>
> I wonder if it's taking place in Germany where electric power is a little
> scarce these days thanks to them giving up nuclear and now being
> sanctioned by Russia.

It's the rest of the world doing the sanctioning, shooting themselves in the foot.

>> You do realize this is happening, and there's pretty much nothing you
>> can do to stop it, right? In 10 years, virtually every car sold in the
>> US will be a BEV...
>
>> This is a reality that you may not prefer, but it is your future,
>> whether you decide to like it or not.
>
> Sounds like wishful thinking. Seems diesel engines are doing well now. My
> next-door neighbor bought a fancy diesel pickup truck six months ago. Gets
> great gas mileage.
>
> Maybe when electric vehicles are made to use big batteries instead of a
> billion small batteries...

The batteries cost too much to make and there isn't enough electricity to charge them all.

Why are they called BEVs? That's tautological. Of course batteries are electric. Can't we just call them electric cars?

On Sat, 21 May 2022 23:02:02 +0100, ke...@kjwdesigns.com <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:

> On Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 09:02:01 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> ...
>> > there's no reason why they can't last like an ICE. The batteries in most BEVs are warrantied for 100,000 or more miles. Do you believe they are going to drop out of the car shortly after that?
>>
>> You won't get that from a battery. No battery of any chemistry is of much use after 5 years, used a lot or not.
>
> I guess my 4 1/2 year old Tesla is going to expire soon then.

Most likely. The chemistry only allows a handful of years or 1000 charges.

>> And I bet that "warranty" only covers the first user.
>
> No - it's transferable.

Tesla don't even transfer the optional extras. They STEAL them back.

On Saturday, 28 May 2022 at 13:32:53 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> On Sat, 21 May 2022 23:02:02 +0100, ke...@kjwdesigns.com <ke...@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:
> > On Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 09:02:01 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> > ...
> >> > there's no reason why they can't last like an ICE. The batteries in most BEVs are warrantied for 100,000 or more miles. Do you believe they are going to drop out of the car shortly after that?
> >>
> >> You won't get that from a battery. No battery of any chemistry is of much use after 5 years, used a lot or not.
> >
> > I guess my 4 1/2 year old Tesla is going to expire soon then.
>
> Most likely. The chemistry only allows a handful of years or 1000 charges.

Sigh...

Tesla actually claim 1500 cycles and warranties them for 8 years. The latest batteries promise even longer lives.

1500 cycles for the Model 3 (358miles EPA rated) is over 500,000 miles.

I need to tell my friend with a 9 year old Tesla that his shouldn't be working any more and it is his imagination that lets him keep driving it.

The 8 year old battery in my MacBook with 94% capacity is also dead then, that's funny - I'm using it right now, so if you don't get this post it is because the battery died...
>
> >> And I bet that "warranty" only covers the first user.
> >
> > No - it's transferable.
>
> Tesla don't even transfer the optional extras. They STEAL them back.

There is a grain of truth in that but the only "optional extra" that is in question is the "Full Self-Driving" and that is transferable through private sellers provided it was originally purchased with the car when new.

It may or may not be transferable through a dealer.

kw

On Saturday, 28 May 2022 at 13:31:49 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> On Tue, 17 May 2022 11:53:27 +0100, John Doe <alway...@message.header> wrote:
>
> > Ricky <gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> Who gives a shit about your 36 year old car? You seem to be obsessed
> >> with the idea that it means something. What do you think your 36 year
> >> old car means in the transition to BEVs that is taking place in the
> >> world?
> >
> > I wonder if it's taking place in Germany where electric power is a little
> > scarce these days thanks to them giving up nuclear and now being
> > sanctioned by Russia.
>
> It's the rest of the world doing the sanctioning, shooting themselves in the foot.
>
> >> You do realize this is happening, and there's pretty much nothing you
> >> can do to stop it, right? In 10 years, virtually every car sold in the
> >> US will be a BEV...
> >
> >> This is a reality that you may not prefer, but it is your future,
> >> whether you decide to like it or not.
> >
> > Sounds like wishful thinking. Seems diesel engines are doing well now. My
> > next-door neighbor bought a fancy diesel pickup truck six months ago. Gets
> > great gas mileage.
> >
> > Maybe when electric vehicles are made to use big batteries instead of a
> > billion small batteries...
>
> The batteries cost too much to make and there isn't enough electricity to charge them all.

There's plenty of electricity - by some calculations it would only increase electrical consumption by 15-20% if every car was electric. But since the majority are charged at night when power stations are sitting idle not much increase in infrastructure is required.
>
> Why are they called BEVs? That's tautological. Of course batteries are electric. Can't we just call them electric cars?

That is to distinguish them from Hybrid Electric Vehicles, "HEVs".

kw

On Sat, 28 May 2022 22:49:29 +0100, ke...@kjwdesigns.com <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:

> On Saturday, 28 May 2022 at 13:32:53 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
>> On Sat, 21 May 2022 23:02:02 +0100, ke...@kjwdesigns.com <ke...@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:
>> > On Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 09:02:01 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
>> > ...
>> >> > there's no reason why they can't last like an ICE. The batteries in most BEVs are warrantied for 100,000 or more miles. Do you believe they are going to drop out of the car shortly after that?
>> >>
>> >> You won't get that from a battery. No battery of any chemistry is of much use after 5 years, used a lot or not.
>> >
>> > I guess my 4 1/2 year old Tesla is going to expire soon then.
>>
>> Most likely. The chemistry only allows a handful of years or 1000 charges.
>
> Sigh...
>
> Tesla actually claim 1500 cycles

So fuck all.

> and warranties them for 8 years.

My petrol car is still running after 20 years. So two battery changes would have cost....

> The latest batteries promise even longer lives.

I see vague promises all the time about batteries.

> 1500 cycles for the Model 3 (358miles EPA rated) is over 500,000 miles.

Do you really think you'll get that 358 miles?

> I need to tell my friend with a 9 year old Tesla that his shouldn't be working any more and it is his imagination that lets him keep driving it.

And how much did this Tesla cost? Tesla are not affordable cars for the majority. Compare with a petrol car of the same value, oh wait, they don't make battery cars that cheap.

> The 8 year old battery in my MacBook with 94% capacity is also dead then, that's funny - I'm using it right now, so if you don't get this post it is because the battery died...

You hardly use collossal amounts of power from that. Now try running a science program like Boinc or Folding on it using the battery.

>> >> And I bet that "warranty" only covers the first user.
>> >
>> > No - it's transferable.
>>
>> Tesla don't even transfer the optional extras. They STEAL them back.
>
> There is a grain of truth in that

It's either true or it isn't. If you buy a new Tesla, get all the extras, then sell it to me 3 years later, what happens?

On Sat, 28 May 2022 22:54:17 +0100, ke...@kjwdesigns.com <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:

> On Saturday, 28 May 2022 at 13:31:49 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 11:53:27 +0100, John Doe <alway...@message.header> wrote:
>>
>> > Ricky <gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> >
>> >> Who gives a shit about your 36 year old car? You seem to be obsessed
>> >> with the idea that it means something. What do you think your 36 year
>> >> old car means in the transition to BEVs that is taking place in the
>> >> world?
>> >
>> > I wonder if it's taking place in Germany where electric power is a little
>> > scarce these days thanks to them giving up nuclear and now being
>> > sanctioned by Russia.
>>
>> It's the rest of the world doing the sanctioning, shooting themselves in the foot.
>>
>> >> You do realize this is happening, and there's pretty much nothing you
>> >> can do to stop it, right? In 10 years, virtually every car sold in the
>> >> US will be a BEV...
>> >
>> >> This is a reality that you may not prefer, but it is your future,
>> >> whether you decide to like it or not.
>> >
>> > Sounds like wishful thinking. Seems diesel engines are doing well now. My
>> > next-door neighbor bought a fancy diesel pickup truck six months ago. Gets
>> > great gas mileage.
>> >
>> > Maybe when electric vehicles are made to use big batteries instead of a
>> > billion small batteries...
>>
>> The batteries cost too much to make and there isn't enough electricity to charge them all.
>
> There's plenty of electricity

It went up by FIFTY percent recently and is due to do so again in autumn in the UK. A drastically higher price indicates a severe shortage. The UK government is now permitting drilling for oil and gas in new areas and forgetting the green crap. I'm actually looking forward to a shortage of energy, it'll make life fun.

> by some calculations it would only increase electrical consumption by 15-20% if every car was electric.

Funny, by some calculations it would double it.

> But since the majority are charged at night when power stations are sitting idle not much increase in infrastructure is required.

At night the green solar energy is off.

>> Why are they called BEVs? That's tautological. Of course batteries are electric. Can't we just call them electric cars?
>
> That is to distinguish them from Hybrid Electric Vehicles, "HEVs".

So why not say HEV and EV?

Or why not stop acronyms altogether? For example what is ICE? Apparently it now means internal combustion engine, but when all cars had engines, it meant in car entertainment (it has a decent stereo).

On Tue, 17 May 2022 20:23:09 +0100, Ed Lee <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:

> On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 12:10:26 PM UTC-7, John Doe wrote:
>> Using a jillion tiny cells makes a difference because if any of those cells
>> fail, the whole car explodes and kills the driver.
>
> Then the BMS is not doing it's job. Proper BMS should monitor each cell and alarm if they overheat.

Which means lots of tiny cells means more monitoring.

On Wed, 18 May 2022 01:50:51 +0100, ke...@kjwdesigns.com <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:

> On Tuesday, 17 May 2022 at 12:10:26 UTC-7, John Doe wrote:
>> Using a jillion tiny cells makes a difference because if any of those cells
>> fail, the whole car explodes and kills the driver.
>
> That is not true. The car is very unlikely to explode if a single cell fails. Even if multiple cells fail an explosion is also extremely unlikely.
>
> From the NTHSA report - "Lithium-ion Battery Safety Issues for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles".
>
> "Regarding the risk of electrochemical failure, the report concludes that the propensity and severity of fires and explosions from the accidental ignition of flammable electrolytic solvents used in Li-ion battery systems are anticipated to be somewhat comparable to or perhaps slightly less than those for gasoline or diesel vehicular fuels."
> https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/documents/12848-lithiumionsafetyhybrids_101217-v3-tag.pdf
>
> A cell can overheat under exceptional circumstances but a small cell may in actual fact be safer than larger ones as the energy of a single cell failure might be contained within its own steel container and not affect the rest of the battery to the point of failure. The fuse or other disconnect for the cell would electrically isolate the failed cell from the rest of the battery. If the cell breaches its own enclosure it could spread the failure to other cells.

My mobile phone's battery has expanded and ripped the back off the phone. Should I be worried?

On Fri, 20 May 2022 02:22:39 +0100, ke...@kjwdesigns.com <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:

> On Wednesday, 18 May 2022 at 22:38:46 UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:
> ...
>> They can "anticipate" until the cows come home. What that boils down to is an uneducated guess. Until you have decades of data to analyze you are just blowing smoke. Just look at airline accidents; the B747 had decades of flight experience when TWA flight 800 exploded. And these planes undergo far more rigorous testing and evaluation than EVs do.
>
> Hardly "uneducated". It is backed up by the scientific reasoning.
>
> We also do have some years of statistics showing the rate of EV car fires is actually lower that conventional vehicles:
>
> https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/
>
> That was a rather bad choice of airplane crash you chose as it was caused by fumes igniting in the fuel tank.
>
> Of course if you like driving around with the energy equivalent of 60 lbs of dynamite in the back of your car that's fine by me.

I used to drive around with propane gas in the boot of my car. Fuck safety. Enjoy speed.

On Thu, 19 May 2022 07:44:38 +0100, Ricky <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

> On Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 1:38:46 AM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
>> On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:50:55 PM UTC-7, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
>> > On Tuesday, 17 May 2022 at 12:10:26 UTC-7, John Doe wrote:
>> > > Using a jillion tiny cells makes a difference because if any of those cells
>> > > fail, the whole car explodes and kills the driver.
>> > That is not true. The car is very unlikely to explode if a single cell fails. Even if multiple cells fail an explosion is also extremely unlikely.
>> >
>> > From the NTHSA report - "Lithium-ion Battery Safety Issues for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles".
>> >
>> > "Regarding the risk of electrochemical failure, the report concludes that the propensity and severity of fires and explosions from the accidental ignition of flammable electrolytic solvents used in Li-ion battery systems are anticipated to be somewhat comparable to or perhaps slightly less than those for gasoline or diesel vehicular fuels."
>> > https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/documents/12848-lithiumionsafetyhybrids_101217-v3-tag.pdf
>> >
>> > A cell can overheat under exceptional circumstances but a small cell may in actual fact be safer than larger ones as the energy of a single cell failure might be contained within its own steel container and not affect the rest of the battery to the point of failure. The fuse or other disconnect for the cell would electrically isolate the failed cell from the rest of the battery. If the cell breaches its own enclosure it could spread the failure to other cells.
>> >
>> > kw
>> They can "anticipate" until the cows come home. What that boils down to is an uneducated guess. Until you have decades of data to analyze you are just blowing smoke. Just look at airline accidents; the B747 had decades of flight experience when TWA flight 800 exploded. And these planes undergo far more rigorous testing and evaluation than EVs do.
>
> You would seem to be blowing smoke as much as anyone. In the case of TWA flight 800, a fatal airliner accident due to design or construction issues is a very infrequent thing. These causes are much easier to minimize failure rates than the operational issues.
>
> The bottom line is lithium-ion batteries are proving to be very safe in BEVs.

So why can't I post you some 18650 cells in the post? Why does the Royal Mail ban batteries in the post?

On Sat, 21 May 2022 22:57:46 +0100, ke...@kjwdesigns.com <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:

> On Friday, 20 May 2022 at 14:17:08 UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:
>> On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:44:43 PM UTC-7, Ricky wrote:
>> > On Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 1:38:46 AM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
>> > > They can "anticipate" until the cows come home. What that boils down to is an uneducated guess. Until you have decades of data to analyze you are just blowing smoke. Just look at airline accidents; the B747 had decades of flight experience when TWA flight 800 exploded. And these planes undergo far more rigorous testing and evaluation than EVs do.
>> > You would seem to be blowing smoke as much as anyone. In the case of TWA flight 800, a fatal airliner accident due to design or construction issues is a very infrequent thing. These causes are much easier to minimize failure rates than the operational issues.
>> >
>> > The bottom line is lithium-ion batteries are proving to be very safe in BEVs. The failures rates are comparable to the failure rates of fossil fueled vehicles which do burst into flame spontaneously as well. We are simply less worried by the relatively infrequent incidents which are dwarfed by the accident rates of automobiles caused by the operators. BEV issues get a lot of visibility, but are actually less likely.
>> >
>> > You didn't anticipate that, did you?
>> >
>> > --
>> >
>> > Rick C.
>> >
>> > -++-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
>> > -++-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
>> No comparison whatsoever - the average age of ICE cars is much older than EVs, and fires are much more frequent in old cars.
> ...
> There is some validity to that but fires as a result of accident are actually more likely with newer cars.
>
> Hyundai and Kia have had to recently recall close to half a million recently manufactured cars in the US because of the risk of the cars spontaneously catching fire when turned off - they even recommend parking them outside.

Just don't crash one whatever you do.
https://youtu.be/-jiH3mE81zw?t=68

On Saturday, 28 May 2022 at 15:42:16 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> On Sat, 28 May 2022 22:49:29 +0100, ke...@kjwdesigns.com <ke...@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:
>
> > On Saturday, 28 May 2022 at 13:32:53 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> >> On Sat, 21 May 2022 23:02:02 +0100, ke...@kjwdesigns.com <ke...@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:
> >> > On Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 09:02:01 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> >> > ...
> >> >> > there's no reason why they can't last like an ICE. The batteries in most BEVs are warrantied for 100,000 or more miles. Do you believe they are going to drop out of the car shortly after that?
> >> >>
> >> >> You won't get that from a battery. No battery of any chemistry is of much use after 5 years, used a lot or not.
> >> >
> >> > I guess my 4 1/2 year old Tesla is going to expire soon then.
> >>
> >> Most likely. The chemistry only allows a handful of years or 1000 charges.
> >
> > Sigh...
> >
> > Tesla actually claim 1500 cycles
> So fuck all.
> > and warranties them for 8 years.
> My petrol car is still running after 20 years. So two battery changes would have cost....
> > The latest batteries promise even longer lives.
> I see vague promises all the time about batteries.
> > 1500 cycles for the Model 3 (358miles EPA rated) is over 500,000 miles.
> Do you really think you'll get that 358 miles?
> > I need to tell my friend with a 9 year old Tesla that his shouldn't be working any more and it is his imagination that lets him keep driving it.
> And how much did this Tesla cost? Tesla are not affordable cars for the majority. Compare with a petrol car of the same value, oh wait, they don't make battery cars that cheap.

A BMW 3 series is very comparable to the Tesla Model 3 in features and costs about the same. The Tesla is higher performance.

> > The 8 year old battery in my MacBook with 94% capacity is also dead then, that's funny - I'm using it right now, so if you don't get this post it is because the battery died...
> You hardly use collossal amounts of power from that. Now try running a science program like Boinc or Folding on it using the battery.
> >> >> And I bet that "warranty" only covers the first user.
> >> >
> >> > No - it's transferable.
> >>
> >> Tesla don't even transfer the optional extras. They STEAL them back.
> >
> > There is a grain of truth in that
> It's either true or it isn't. If you buy a new Tesla, get all the extras, then sell it to me 3 years later, what happens?

I see that you clipped my full response. Here it is again if you missed it first time:

kw>There is a grain of truth in that but the only "optional extra" that is in question is the "Full Self-Driving" and kw>that is transferable through private sellers provided it was originally purchased with the car when new.

kw>It may or may not be transferable through a dealer.

So yes, if I buy a Tesla and sell it to you 3 years later you get everything I had.

On Saturday, 28 May 2022 at 15:46:31 UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
> On Tue, 17 May 2022 20:23:09 +0100, Ed Lee <edward....@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 12:10:26 PM UTC-7, John Doe wrote:
> >> Using a jillion tiny cells makes a difference because if any of those cells
> >> fail, the whole car explodes and kills the driver.
> >
> > Then the BMS is not doing it's job. Proper BMS should monitor each cell and alarm if they overheat.
>
> Which means lots of tiny cells means more monitoring.

No. A group of about 30-40 cells are connected in parallel. They are then monitored as if they were single larger cell as they all have the same voltage.

Only Tesla and Rivian use small cells. All other EV manufacturers uses large cells typically of 20Ah to 60Ah.

kw